Canadian federal election - 2015

[DL]

Tom Clark reported yesterday that the Grits won't be using Soudas because they don't trust him. "No source I spoke with felt Soudas might be of much value because his information might be suspect."

I find that VERY hard to believe and I'm surprised Tom Clark is that gullible

[RogueBeaver]

While I agree with you, I don't think Harper should worry. Soudas is hardly a Tarte figure.

Confirmed Adams will run in Eglinton-Lawrence, but there's already a local lawyer running for the nomination.

Byrne sent Butts flowers today to thank him for getting rid of Adams.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nominations tonight:

Richmond-Arthabaska, QC: lobbyist Marc Desmarais will be acclaimed as the Liberal candidate.

Calgary Forest Lawn, ON: Cam Stewart will be acclaimed as the Liberal candidate. He was their candidate in Calgary Northeast in 2011, though this riding is mostly descended from Calgary East. Calgary East's MP Deepak Obhrai is the Conservative candidate while Jud Hansell will be the Green candidate.

[King of Kensington]

In an "open and fair" nomination I'd be really surprised if Eve Adams gets it. 

Eg-Law is probably the most important riding in Toronto for the Liberals to have a good candidate in place.  They'd be idiots to run her there. 

Parkdale-High Park, Davenport and Danforth are safe NDP even in a return to "normalcy" in Ontario.  All the other non-Liberal seats are pretty low hanging fruit.  Oliver is beatable, but he is more of a challenge than the others. 

[Hatman 🍁]

No downtown Toronto riding is safe for the NDP right now, not even Danforth.

[King of Kensington]

I wouldn't consider Danforth a "downtown" riding.  That's like saying Astoria, Queens is part of "downtown New York."

[King of Kensington]

Marco Mendicino sounds like a much better fit for Eglinton-Lawrence:

http://www.vote4marco.org/about-marco.html

[DL]

In an "open and fair" nomination I'd be really surprised if Eve Adams gets it. 

Eg-Law is probably the most important riding in Toronto for the Liberals to have a good candidate in place.  They'd be idiots to run her there. 

Parkdale-High Park, Davenport and Danforth are safe NDP even in a return to "normalcy" in Ontario.  All the other non-Liberal seats are pretty low hanging fruit.  Oliver is beatable, but he is more of a challenge than the others. 

I agree - Joe Oliver could easily be beaten by a strong Liberal candidate (Bill Blair?) - but he can breathe very easily if his Liberal opponent was going to be an object of ridicule like Eve Adams...and as bad as Eve Adams would be in Eglinton-Lawrence, she would be the absolute worse possible person the Liberals could run in an NDP held inner city riding - to say she would be a turnoff to NDP-Liberal swing voters is an understatement!!

[Hatman 🍁]

I wouldn't consider Danforth a "downtown" riding.  That's like saying Astoria, Queens is part of "downtown New York."

Unfortunately, many people are starting to equate all of Old Toronto as Downtown. I guess I've joined in on that

[King of Kensington]

Eglinton-Lawrence MPP Mike Colle: "Over my dead body."

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/02/10/mike-collee-eve-adams-liberals-eglinton-lawrence_n_6655624.html

[DL]

Eglinton-Lawrence MPP Mike Colle: "Over my dead body."

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/02/10/mike-collee-eve-adams-liberals-eglinton-lawrence_n_6655624.html

Dimitri Soudas is probably thinking "That can be arranged"

[RogueBeaver]

Fife said earlier on QP that Liberal HQ will rig Eglinton-Lawrence for Adams. Another potential competitor is Joe Volpe's son.

[Linus Van Pelt]

This is a really weird episode.

[RogueBeaver]

Tom Allison, he of Iggy/Wynne/Tory fame, will run Adams' campaign. Adams also met with Joe Volpe and asked for his help, he declined.

[RogueBeaver]

As was predictable 2 years ago, Joly will run for the PLC. Ahuntsic-Cartierville, to be precise.

[136or142]

According to the Vancouver Sun, the Liberal nomination contest in Vancouver East was supposed to be held today but it had been cancelled because irregularities regarding signed up members came to light.  There were likely over 100 people contacted who were on the membership list who didn't know they were on the membership list.

[RogueBeaver]

Joe Volpe is deciding whether he or his son Flavio will seek the Grit nomination. Someone should ask Wynne whether she agrees with Trudeau or Cole.

[DL]

Joe Volpe is deciding whether he or his son Flavio will seek the Grit nomination. Someone should ask Wynne whether she agrees with Trudeau or Cole.

FYI: Volpe's son Flavio was a major figure in Olivia Chow's mayoral campaign - did a lot of the fundraising

[King of Kensington]

Funny given that Flavio is a more "progressive" Liberal given that Joe Volpe was quite a reactionary Liberal who really pandered to right-wing constituents (as pro-Israel as Harper/Kenney/Baird, opposed Lawrence Heights redevelopment, came out in support of funding for religious schools etc.) 

Mendicino sounds like a good candidate for the Libs (at least on paper): North Toronto resident, lawyer, and lead prosecutor of the"Toronto 18."

[DL]

My advice to Mendicino is that if Pat Sorbara calls him with regards to his candidacy - he should make sure to tape record the conversation.

[Citizen Hats]

Funny given that Flavio is a more "progressive" Liberal given that Joe Volpe was quite a reactionary Liberal who really pandered to right-wing constituents (as pro-Israel as Harper/Kenney/Baird, opposed Lawrence Heights redevelopment, came out in support of funding for religious schools etc.) 

Mendicino sounds like a good candidate for the Libs (at least on paper): North Toronto resident, lawyer, and lead prosecutor of the"Toronto 18."

You've been around too long to expect us to be consistent, KoK

[Mr. Morden]

I haven't been following Canadian politics recently, so can I ask a dumb question?: With recent polling, it looks like it's conceivable that the Conservatives will once again win a plurality of seats (but not a majority this time).  In such a scenario, is it a given that they'll once again form a minority government?  Or is there any chance of the NDP propping up the Liberals or joining them in a coalition?

[Hatman 🍁]

Coalition is too much of a dirty word, but it might be possible if the seat count is close, just because people are so tired of Harper that they would be willing to tolerate a coalition.

[DC Al Fine]

I haven't been following Canadian politics recently, so can I ask a dumb question?: With recent polling, it looks like it's conceivable that the Conservatives will once again win a plurality of seats (but not a majority this time).  In such a scenario, is it a given that they'll once again form a minority government?  Or is there any chance of the NDP propping up the Liberals or joining them in a coalition?

I agree with Hatman that the word "coalition" is a dirty word in Canadian politics. However, a less formal arrangement is probably feasible; e.g. A confidence and supply deal.

[Linus Van Pelt]

You know things are bad when Joe Volpe is on the clean-government side of a Liberal Party internal dispute.