Canadian federal election - 2015

[lilTommy]

Lawyer Rosannie Filato won the NDP nomination in Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel, QC yesterday. Kind of surprising it was a contested race in a safe Liberal riding.  Maybe something to do with the rape allegations against the Liberal incumbent, Massimo Pacetti? The Tories already have their candidate in the riding, Jean-Philippe Fournier who was the provincial Conservative candidate in last year's provincial election in Blainville.

Today is the Liberal race in Vaudreuil-Soulanges, QC. There are 5 candidates running. NDP incumbent Jamie Nicholls is also running, as is the Tory candidate Marc Boudreau, who ran in this riding in 2008 and 2011.

It is surprising, and she is a rather strong candidate for a Liberal Stronghold, good for the NDP. I think there is some chatter that the Liberals might not let Pacetti run under their banner.... which could lead to him running as an Indie which makes this a much more interesting race. I've heard that Liza Frulla (former MP for Jeanne-Le Ber 04-06) might be thrown in to the riding... all chatter, nothing official I think.

[Hatman 🍁]

"Sustainable community development expert"  Peter Schiefke wins the Liberal nod in Vaudreuil-Soulanges.

[RogueBeaver]

Tories, NDP and elements of the consortium want Harper-Mulcair-Trudeau only debates. French media wants 2 Quebec debates - Rad-Can and TVA. I'm all for this idea, but would formalize it through official party status.

[DC Al Fine]

Tories, NDP and elements of the consortium want Harper-Mulcair-Trudeau only debates. French media wants 2 Quebec debates - Rad-Can and TVA. I'm all for this idea, but would formalize it through official party status.

I agree. Debates are best with two or maybe three participants. Having May there wouldn't be the end of the world, but letting two Quebec nationalists into the English debate is just dumb.

[Hatman 🍁]

May should be there. After all, the consortium kept telling her she needed seats to be in. Well, now she does. It wouldn't be fair to take them away. Agree to keep the two Quebec parties out for the French debate.

[RogueBeaver]

Star has more details: up to 5 regional debates. Would be easier in a longer (ideally 6-8 week IMO) campaign

[RogueBeaver]

Grits green-lighted a candidate with ties to Syrian Nazis until a journalist found out, then they vetoed.

[RogueBeaver]

This new BQ ad...

[You kip if you want to...]

This new BQ ad...

Worked so well for the PQ last year.

[Boston Bread]

This new BQ ad...

Worked so well for the PQ last year.

Not sure if it's a coincidence, but BQ is going up in the polls. Now that the conservative Quebec surge is starting to end will a BQ surge come next? (Not that I would expect it to last any longer)

[DL]

This new BQ ad...

Apparently that "ad" isn't actually running anywhere that a voter can see it. It's only been posted on the BQ Facebook page which is only followed by a small number of people almost all of whom are already BQ members

[Hatman 🍁]

Except for the fact that the ad went viral.

[DL]

Even when an ad like this BQ one "goes viral" what exactly does that mean? Does that mean that hundreds of thousands of low information swing voters in Quebec are seeing it (unlikely) or does it mean that it is going "viral" among people like us - largely anglo political junkies who are not even remotely within the BQ universe and not even in Quebec...(more likely)

Anyways, my point is that pundits and other observers often fall into the trap of taking seriously an ad that actually has no "buy" attached to it and that is not actually running anywhere and that will probably never been seen by more tha .01% of the electorate!

[RogueBeaver]

Harper and the niqab gambit.


Why Trudeau's the underdog.

[Hatman 🍁]

Even when an ad like this BQ one "goes viral" what exactly does that mean? Does that mean that hundreds of thousands of low information swing voters in Quebec are seeing it (unlikely) or does it mean that it is going "viral" among people like us - largely anglo political junkies who are not even remotely within the BQ universe and not even in Quebec...(more likely)

Anyways, my point is that pundits and other observers often fall into the trap of taking seriously an ad that actually has no "buy" attached to it and that is not actually running anywhere and that will probably never been seen by more tha .01% of the electorate!

While this is true, my point was it's now being seen than more than just subscribers to the BQ facebook page. 

[RogueBeaver]

Marc-André Morin has lost renomination to Simon-Pierre Landry. I really like this idea of targeting your own deadwood, wish my party would do the same.

[DC Al Fine]

Marc-André Morin has lost renomination to Simon-Pierre Landry. I really like this idea of targeting your own deadwood, wish my party would do the same.

Name names?

[RogueBeaver]

Royal Galipeau, for starters?

[Hatman 🍁]

Should've targeted Rob Anders. Didn't matter though.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

As a close watcher of Canadian politics, I'd say that I think Harper will play up the security card.  I think that's his best bet for winning a 4th term, actually.

[Hatman 🍁]

This weekend's nominations:

- NDP MP Isabelle Morin was acclaimed Friday as their candidate in Dorval-Lachine-LaSalle, QC. She'll take on public servant Daniela Chivu for the Tories and lawyer Anju Dhillon for the Liberals.

- Former Tory/Independent MP Bill Casey won the Liberal nomination in Cumberland-Colchester, NS. He will take on the incumbent, Scott Armstrong of the Conservatives.

- John Hansen will be the NDP candidate in Kanata-Carleton, ON. He was their candidate in Carleton-Mississippi Mills in last year's provincial election. He'll take on former Liberal leadership candidate Karen McCrimmon and Green candidate Andrew West (also their 2014 provincial candidate). The seat is a notional Tory one, but they have yet to nominated a candidate to replace retiring incumbent Gordon O'Connor.

- Western prof Matthew Rowlinson won the NDP nomination in London West, ON. He will take on Tory incumbent Ed Holder and Liberal news anchor Kate Young.

- Union rep Vicky O'Dell will be the NDP candidate in Souris-Moose Mountain, SK. She'll take on Tory chiropractor Robert Kitchen.

- Laurentides-Labelle (see RB's post)

- Lawyer Ruby Sahota will be the Liberal candidate in Brampton North. She takes on Tory incumbent Parm Gill and the NDP's former leadership candidate Martin Singh.

- MP Dan Harris was acclaimed as the NDP's candidate in Scarborough Southwest, ON.

- Linda McQuaig will once again be the NDP's candidate in Toronto Centre, ON. She ran there in a by-election in 2013. She will not have to face the same Liberal candidate she lost to, as Chrystia Freeland is fleeing to the new University-Rosedale riding. The Liberal candidate will instead be businessman Bill Morneau.

- 3 time NDP and one-time Independent candidate Richard Walsh will be the Green candidate in Waterloo, ON. He'll take on Tory incumbent Peter Braid and Liberal candidate Bardish Chagger.

- Public servant / musician Levy Abad won the NDP nomination in Winnipeg North, MB. He'll take on Liberal incumbent Kevin Lamoureux, Tory actor Harpeet Turka and Green John Redekopp who is a former provincial candidate.

[DL]

As a close watcher of Canadian politics, I'd say that I think Harper will play up the security card.  I think that's his best bet for winning a 4th term, actually.

Barring some sort of unimaginable September 11 style attack on Canada in the middle of the campaign - I think the Tories will have a very hard time making "security" a vote determining issues for anyone outside their base.

[MaxQue]

Marc-André Morin has lost renomination to Simon-Pierre Landry. I really like this idea of targeting your own deadwood, wish my party would do the same.

Name names?

Cheryl Gallant, which said today during the question period than Canada needed stronger laws against pedophilia, because of the new Ontario sex ed curriculum?

The idea isn't daft (who is against that?), but the reason she uses is.

She is also known for comparing Ignatieff to Gadhafi and for saying than protecting sexual orientation from hate propaganda would protect pedophiles.

[MaxQue]

As a close watcher of Canadian politics, I'd say that I think Harper will play up the security card.  I think that's his best bet for winning a 4th term, actually.

Barring some sort of unimaginable September 11 style attack on Canada in the middle of the campaign - I think the Tories will have a very hard time making "security" a vote determining issues for anyone outside their base.

Well, I think they will run on that, his tone changed in the last weeks. I'm sure he planned to run on economy, but the events of the last months are preventing to do so (the economy isn't going well anymore!).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Trudeau doesn't want the Tories to be able to attack him on security - so I imagine he must have had electoral considerations in mind when he voted for the anti-terrorism legislation.  Trudeau runs his best chance of winning by framing this as an election for change, nothing more nothing less, with perhaps a catchy, memorable slogan, and well-rounded policies to encapsulate it all.  That is, if he finds his niche.