Canadian federal election - 2015

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The rurban seats were once the NDP's plan to pick up more seats, but it backfired and ended up hurting them.

The distinctive quartering rurban seats that have caused such dismay over the past decade were actually a Liberal plan originally.

[Clyde1998]

Why are the Bloc Quebecois doing so badly recently - focusing on independence too much?

[RogueBeaver]

Why are the Bloc Quebecois doing so badly recently - focusing on independence too much?

Never recovered from 2011, and they're led by a nutter. They get almost no coverage even in normally friendly media. They still have the hardcore sovereigntists but nothing more than that. Francophones are mostly NDP, and conservative nationalists have the Tories. As NDP MP Alex Boulerice (progressive nationalist, former sovereigntist) said a few months ago, the reason for NDP success is both ideological and leadership.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Quebec Nationalists got a bit complacent about the future and over time this led to self-indulgence and (provincially rather than federally: the BQ was just Duceppe plus fifty or so nonentities) factional strife, and the electorate got bored of it and them. They'll be back in some form at some point, but probably only after new faces take over.

[Hatman 🍁]

Actually, the BQ is polling rather well, considering. They're close to their 2011 numbers, and federalist vote splitting may help them gain a few seats.

[DL]

Actually, the BQ is polling rather well, considering. They're close to their 2011 numbers, and federalist vote splitting may help them gain a few seats.

Depends on what polls you look at - in 2011 when they were reduced to 4 seats they got 23% of the vote in Quebec. The big CROP poll out on the weekend had them down to 13% which would mean zero seats.

[RogueBeaver]

MacKay's impending retirement opens up Central Nova. DC, who are the likeliest Tories to run?

[136or142]

My prediction which has an enormous track record of success as you all know is that Peter Van Loan will replace MacKay as Attorney General.

I don't believe Van Loan is a genius but he'd be a major step up from a person whose IQ is measured in negative digits.

[RogueBeaver]

Reuters: MacKay will make some money in the private sector, then "when people want more of a PC govt. in 6-7 years, he'll be there."

Agreed w/Matt Gurney.

[136or142]

Reuters: MacKay will make some money in the private sector, then "when people want more of a PC govt. in 6-7 years, he'll be there."

Agreed w/Matt Gurney.

I don't know where this notion that Peter MacKay is a 'red tory' comes from.  He was the guy who arranged the merger with the Alliance Party (After lying that he wouldn't) and all the positions that he's taken, in Foreign Affairs, Defense and especially in Justice have been on the far far right of the political spectrum.

Maybe he's just been a right wing sock puppet for Harper and the views he's expressed as a cabinet minister aren't really his own, but then, who would  want such a spineless toady as Prime Minister?

[Boston Bread]

We have our first poll after a long polling drought.


NDP down in Ontario, up in Quebec, Prairies. Liberals still 3rd in a 3 way race.
Look at how the Greens bounce between the teens to 1% in Manitoba. Yay small sample sizes!

[lilTommy]

Reuters: MacKay will make some money in the private sector, then "when people want more of a PC govt. in 6-7 years, he'll be there."

Agreed w/Matt Gurney.

Long time Reform/CPC MP Diane Ablonczy will retire as well http://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/calgary-mp-confirms-retirement-from-federal-politics

[lilTommy]

We have our first poll after a long polling drought.


NDP down in Ontario, up in Quebec, Prairies. Liberals still 3rd in a 3 way race.
Look at how the Greens bounce between the teens to 1% in Manitoba. Yay small sample sizes!

Those a big jumps for the NDP in both Sask and Man, last poll I had the NDP in the 20's and third place; NDP second in the Atlantic for the first time I can remember. BC is still the most 3-way competative, no one is pulling ahead in BC, second poll I've seen with the NDP leading there though.
Do you have a link? typically they have demographic breakdowns as well

[Boston Bread]

No further breakdown, usually they are posted once they have their full release on the ekos website.

This is what my model gives with my weighted poll average.


My riding of Waterloo: 32/41/18/8 (Liberal gain)

I attended NDP candidate Diane Freeman's nomination meeting yesterday. The Bearded One came and gave a speech. She seems like a star candidate to me, although the model doesn't show it yet.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP #s in Waterloo will be depressed in your model because they were depressed in 2011 due to the race as being seen as Liberal vs. Conservative. Now with an NDP MPP, Waterloo is definitely an NDP target.

[Holmes]

Two Liberals in the territories, eh? Your model thinks Aglukkaq is going down?

Hampton is running in Kenora.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interestingly, Hampton is from Fort Frances, which is actually in Thunder Bay-Rainy River. When he was in Queen's Park, he represented Kenora-Rainy River, which included Fort Frances. Having said that, Kenora was entirely included in his district.

[Boston Bread]

The paywall on the ekos poll has come down.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/05/29/the-ekos-poll-canadians-warming-to-the-idea-of-coalition-government/

[lilTommy]

The paywall on the ekos poll has come down.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/05/29/the-ekos-poll-canadians-warming-to-the-idea-of-coalition-government/

While the NDP can see good news mostly everywhere, again... The Liberals lead among no demographic groups, except women who are statistically in a three-way tie. 18-49 The NDP leads 50+ the CPC leads (notably very much so among 65+). HS+College the CPC lead; University NDP Leads (very Alberta-esque). Interestingly "Those not born in Canada" are in a statistically tie (30,30,28) this was a group that used to be owned by the Liberals and were won over by the CPC in 2011 now seem to be split. It would be interesting to see which ethnic groups/Immigrant groups are going to which party, Or if it is a regional thing. NDP leads among CDN born.

[morgieb]

Who would Tredeau form a Coalition with if it came down to that? NDP or Tories?

Dippers would most likely give their support to Tredeau if he was in the Top 2, though.

[RogueBeaver]

He's not gonna form a coalition with anyone. His voters would strongly prefer he support Mulcair.

[136or142]

He's not gonna form a coalition with anyone. His voters would strongly prefer he support Mulcair. In any event if Trudeau is Opposition Leader then both Harper and Mulcair will not be leaders for long.

Even if Mulcair wins the most seats?

[RogueBeaver]

Oops. Obviously if Mulcair wins most seats he's PM.

[Lotuslander]

He's not gonna form a coalition with anyone. His voters would strongly prefer he support Mulcair.

And Mulcair, as of today, states that he won`t form a coalition with anyone either:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2015/05/30/mulcair-tourne-le-dos-a-trudeau

[Linus Van Pelt]

This is the actual quote from Mulcair:

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"We were ready to put a lot of water in our wine, because our priority is to get rid of Stephen Harper. Mr. Trudeau has said that he'd maybe be ready to work with the NDP, so long as I was no longer the leader. I raised the project four times. At a certain moment, one gets tired. These stories, they're finished. We're looking to the electorate and we're telling them that if they want real change, it will pass through the NDP. From now on, that's the only proposal we'll put forward on the subject." (my translation)

If you ask me, it's not clear that he's refusing to form a coalition, or has changed his position. He's just saying he's not going to bother with any pre-election negotiations because he's fed up with Trudeau not engaging him.