Canadian federal election - 2015

[Boston Bread]

Ekos' second preference poll matches Abacus' findings. Not only does NDP has the highest ceiling, but Conservative's second preferences are evenly matched between NDP and LPC. And there are a lot of voters wafting between LPC and NDP.

[Lief 🗽]

Wonderful news!

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

They should have distinguished between "don't know" and "none". Like are all those Green voters in black unsure of whether to pick Grit or Dip; or are they steadfast supporters who don't even need to pick a second choice. That would be helpful.

[lilTommy]

Ekos' second preference poll matches Abacus' findings. Not only does NDP has the highest ceiling, but Conservative's second preferences are evenly matched between NDP and LPC. And there are a lot of voters wafting between LPC and NDP.

Are their regional numbers provided as well? this is still behind the paywall... its all about the regional numbers man!

[Holmes]

This is bittersweet. If the NDP wins government (and it's too soon to tell), I won't even be living in the country anymore anyway. Something I've wanted for a long time and I won't even be able to enjoy it.

[lilTommy]

Where you moving Holmes?
Well this wont make you feel any better... Regional's:



NDP leading PQ and BC, tied in ON... second everywhere but Manitoba (Sellinger gov't effect?)
Liberals third in ON (still a three way race though) and BC is very bad news indeed for them, their large lead in the Atlantic is gone, still comfortably in the lead though as the NDP has surpassed the CONs for second.

[Lief 🗽]

Hopefully all these greens in BC, Saskatchewan and the Atlantic do the right thing and switch to orange (I find it surprising that the Green vote is nearly double the last election, despite the fact that the NDP and Liberals are both up as well).

[Boston Bread]

Hopefully all these greens in BC, Saskatchewan and the Atlantic do the right thing and switch to orange (I find it surprising that the Green vote is nearly double the last election, despite the fact that the NDP and Liberals are both up as well).

Ekos always overestimates the Greens, and on top of that the Green #s usually decline by election day. If you average the polls Greens are only at 6% so I'd say a 4-5% Green result is more realistic on election day.

[Boston Bread]

My model now produces a CPC-NDP seat tie with the new numbers:

[Hatman 🍁]

They should have distinguished between "don't know" and "none". Like are all those Green voters in black unsure of whether to pick Grit or Dip; or are they steadfast supporters who don't even need to pick a second choice. That would be helpful.

No need to distinguish, very few said "Don't know". Most would have no second choice.

[lilTommy]

My model now produces a CPC-NDP seat tie with the new numbers:

Ekos also got a tie results, lower Liberal numbers and BQ maintaining their seats though:
CPC - 125
NDP - 125
LPC - 83
GRN - 1
BQ - 4

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/06/05/the-ekos-poll-mulcair-is-picking-up-all-the-marbles-as-trudeau-fades/

[Panhandle Progressive]

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As an American who knows embarrassing little about Canadian politics what would be the outcome if this was the final result of the federal election? Also what if CPC had 126 seats to NDP 124?

[Holmes]

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As an American who knows embarrassing little about Canadian politics what would be the outcome if this was the final result of the federal election? Also what if CPC had 126 seats to NDP 124?

The Libs, Green and Bloc would decide who to prop up as PM. They would govern under the constraints of a minority government.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Obviously it's impossible to really know and incredibly unlikely to happen, but I feel like if we literally ended up with a CPC-NDP tie, IMO there is no way a Conservative government is allowed to happen, especially after just seeing the near-vaporizing of the Liberal Democrats in the UK. If the Liberals allowed that, it would completely devastate them and ruin their credibility from the perspective of any anti-Conservative voter. You'd probably just end up with an NDP minority for like ~18 months until either the Conservatives or Liberals felt like striking again.

There's also like a 2% chance you'd have some sort of working coalition deal between the NDP and the Liberals but that is so unlikely given who leads either of those parties that it's not worth considering. But maybe in the event of a near or exact tie it would increase those odds. Who knows.

[adma]

At 24%, I highly doubt that the Liberals would be in the 83-103-seat range.  *Half* of that would be likelier.

[DC Al Fine]

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As an American who knows embarrassing little about Canadian politics what would be the outcome if this was the final result of the federal election? Also what if CPC had 126 seats to NDP 124?

Traditionally, in a tie, the incumbent gets first crack at forming a government. Historically, in either of the scenarios you posited, the Tories would form government and try to bribe other parties to get their bills passed. Eventually they'd fail, the government would fall and there would be another election.

However, the most likely situation today would have the NDP & Liberals working out some sort of arrangement (either a coalition or something less formal).

[Linus Van Pelt]

Has everyone just decided not to poll Forces et Démocratie?

[DC Al Fine]

I think the more interesting question here is, what would happen if the polls hold and all three parties finish close together? Something like:

Con: 115
Lib: 105
NDP: 105
Oth: 5

Would the two left leaning parties work together if they both had a claim on the PM spot?

[King of Kensington]

That would be quite the blow to Duverger's Law.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Well, it's shaping up to be a very interesting election to say the least.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Given the current nature of the Liberal Vote (especially as seen from polls) I suppose them propping up the Conservatives would be very unlikely (unless they are complete idiots).

[RogueBeaver]

Hopefully Grits are gonna be the Butts of so many jokes.

[morgieb]

What makes the Atlantic so pro-Grit btw?

[Holmes]

What makes the Atlantic so pro-Grit btw?

It was pretty pro-NDP before Trudeau was elected as leader and Harper reformed EI. Then Trudeau became leader and things changed.quickly. Liberals were always strong in PEI and NL, and an unpopular former NDP government in NS is most likely bringing the federal NDP's numbers down im favor of the Libs, just like in Manitoba.

[King of Kensington]

The NDP dominates the two largest cities of the region, Halifax and St. John's. 

Prior to 1997 (when the NDP was led by Nova Scotian Alexa McDonough), the NDP was very weak in Atlantic Canada. 

The CCF-NDP had some strength in Cape Breton, but it's a very Liberal area now.