Canadian federal election - 2015

[progressive85]

It's halfway into the Harper mandate.

All I have to say is that I wish I had dual citizenship so I could vote for Justin Trudeau. 

Today in the National Post (Canada):

With the Conservatives ensnarled in the biggest political scandal in their seven years in government, a new poll suggests Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are en route to winning a massive majority in the next election.

More than four in 10 Canadians, 44%, said they would vote Liberal in the next federal election, according to latest Forum Poll for the National Post, compared to 27% support for the ruling Conservatives and 20% for the opposition NDP.

The Liberals would claim 192 seats in the 308-seat House of Commons with that support, leaving the Tories with 77 and dropping the NDP all the way back to 37. (CP)

[progressive85]

Trudeau, the son of former prime minister Pierre Trudeau, is proving to be massively popular on a personal level, with his approval rating as high as Harper’s is low.

Trudeau’s net favourable rating [approval minus disapproval] is an impressive +23, with his 49% approval the highest ever registered for a party leader in a Forum poll.

Meanwhile, Harper’s net favourable rating is a dismal -35 and NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair is a mediocre +3.

[ottermax]

two years away.... as we saw in 2011 things change fast, and as we saw just now in BC, you can't trust the polls.

[Holmes]

In 2015, let's all vote for beautiful hair.

Anyway, not paying attention to this (or whatever little there is to pay attention to) until the actual campaign is announced. Actually, if all goes according to plan, I'll be living in California by the time this election happens, but I'll be cheering Mulcair on from afar.

[Hatman 🍁]

All I have to say is that I wish I had dual citizenship so I could vote for Justin Trudeau. 

Maybe not the best thing to say around here I can't say I know of anyone else who likes Mr. "Flaky like his mom" on the forums.

I am interested, pray tell, why would you vote for JT?

[Smid]

Justin Trudeau. The Zoolander of Canadian politics.

[DC Al Fine]

More than four in 10 Canadians, 44%, said they would vote Liberal in the next federal election, according to latest Forum Poll for the National Post, compared to 27% support for the ruling Conservatives and 20% for the opposition NDP.

The Liberals would claim 192 seats in the 308-seat House of Commons with that support, leaving the Tories with 77 and dropping the NDP all the way back to 37. (CP)

Trudeau was elected a month ago. He's still in his honeymoon. I remind you that Dion's Liberals achieved 40% in the polls and Ignatieff's managed 37% after their respective leadership elections. If the Liberals are still sitting at 40% in a year, I'll worry.

[DC Al Fine]

Also Trudeau is a noxious prettyboy who wouldn't even be a serious contender in his own riding if it wasn't for his last name. I'd vote NDP or Green before him.

[MaxQue]

Also Trudeau is a noxious prettyboy who wouldn't even be a serious contender in his own riding if it wasn't for his last name. I'd vote NDP or Green before him.

Papineau is still a stong place for NDP Liberals. He gets huge majorities in Parc-Extension and Saint-Michel, both immigrant areas which weren't there when his father was PM. He get clobbered and is a distant third in Villeray, through. It's a trendy hipster neighbourhood, which vote for QS provincially, so (but they have a Liberal MNA because they are paired with uber-Liberal Parc-Extension).

Through, as Villeray is growing, I wouldn't feel safe if I was him, it's not tranding in the right direction for him.

[DC Al Fine]

Also Trudeau is a noxious prettyboy who wouldn't even be a serious contender in his own riding if it wasn't for his last name. I'd vote NDP or Green before him.

Papineau is still a stong place for NDP. He gets huge majorities in Parc-Extension and Saint-Michel, both immigrant areas which weren't there when his father was PM. He get clobbered and is a distant third in Villeray, through. It's a trendy hipster neighbourhood, which vote for QS provincially, so (but they have a Liberal MNA because they are paired with uber-Liberal Parc-Extension).

Through, as Villeray is growing, I wouldn't feel safe if I was him, it's not tranding in the right direction for him.

Sorry, should've been more specific. Someone Justin Trudeau's resume, minus his last name wouldn't be a serious candidate for the Liberal nomination in Papineau, much less a contender for Prime Minister.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Far too early for this thread to really have much purpose, but whatever.

Anyways, Trudeau may well be able to do what his dad did (let us not allow understandable dislike for him or his party obscure the possibility), but he's not a solution to the Liberal Party's longterm problems.

[mileslunn]

The election is 2.5 years away so a lot can happen.  Trudeau is more popular because many are tired of the Harper government and looking for an alternative so otherwise he means different things to different people.  Otherwise everyone expects him to do all this great things, but when he comes under the microscope his numbers should fall.  The Liberals could still win under him, but probably only a minority.  I also laughed at the part in the poll that put the numbers in Alberta at 46% cons to 42% Libs.  There is no way this is going to happen.  The Conservatives will get at least 55% in Alberta and the Liberals will be lucky if they can get 25% which they did get back in the 90s under Chretien.

[mileslunn]

I should also note even if a dual citizen, you cannot vote in Canada unless you have resided in the country during the past five years.  The reason for this is we don't vote for PM, we vote for local MP so only those in Papineau get to vote for Justin Trudeau just as only those in Calgary Southeast get to vote for Harper.  Rather the leader of whichever party wins the most seats becomes PM.  Its not like most countries where dual citizens can vote or we have overseas constituencies like France or Italy.  However if a dual citizen you can vote upon taking up residency in Canada whereas if not a citizen you have to wait until you become one which is a minimum of 3 years.

[toaster]

Also Trudeau is a noxious prettyboy who wouldn't even be a serious contender in his own riding if it wasn't for his last name. I'd vote NDP or Green before him.

Papineau is still a stong place for NDP Liberals. He gets huge majorities in Parc-Extension and Saint-Michel, both immigrant areas which weren't there when his father was PM. He get clobbered and is a distant third in Villeray, through. It's a trendy hipster neighbourhood, which vote for QS provincially, so (but they have a Liberal MNA because they are paired with uber-Liberal Parc-Extension).

Through, as Villeray is growing, I wouldn't feel safe if I was him, it's not tranding in the right direction for him.

I actually think the NDP has a chance in Papineau.  Many who would have voted NDP last time around voted Bloc because they had a strong candidate (and former MP) running (and the NDP had basically a name-holder, and still came in 2nd).  I'm not sure if Barbot will run again for the Bloc here, but my thinking is that with a popular candidate, the NDP can garner the soft separatist vote, and consolidate the left vote.

[adma]

I actually think the NDP has a chance in Papineau.  Many who would have voted NDP last time around voted Bloc because they had a strong candidate (and former MP) running (and the NDP had basically a name-holder, and still came in 2nd).  I'm not sure if Barbot will run again for the Bloc here, but my thinking is that with a popular candidate, the NDP can garner the soft separatist vote, and consolidate the left vote.

They *could*; however, Justin lost far less ground than any other Liberal incumbent in Quebec, and that's when he didn't yet have the leadership sheen.

It'll take an open-seat circumstance IMO here--particularly given that Justin doesn't register as a unpalatable soft-left option...

[DC Al Fine]

Also Trudeau is a noxious prettyboy who wouldn't even be a serious contender in his own riding if it wasn't for his last name. I'd vote NDP or Green before him.

Papineau is still a stong place for NDP Liberals. He gets huge majorities in Parc-Extension and Saint-Michel, both immigrant areas which weren't there when his father was PM. He get clobbered and is a distant third in Villeray, through. It's a trendy hipster neighbourhood, which vote for QS provincially, so (but they have a Liberal MNA because they are paired with uber-Liberal Parc-Extension).

Through, as Villeray is growing, I wouldn't feel safe if I was him, it's not tranding in the right direction for him.

I actually think the NDP has a chance in Papineau.  Many who would have voted NDP last time around voted Bloc because they had a strong candidate (and former MP) running (and the NDP had basically a name-holder, and still came in 2nd).  I'm not sure if Barbot will run again for the Bloc here, but my thinking is that with a popular candidate, the NDP can garner the soft separatist vote, and consolidate the left vote.

The Liberals polling more than 15 points above what they got in Quebec in 2011 and you think their leader is going to lose his seat?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He's pretty clearly arguing along the general lines of 'bubbles burst'.

[mileslunn]

Also Trudeau is a noxious prettyboy who wouldn't even be a serious contender in his own riding if it wasn't for his last name. I'd vote NDP or Green before him.

Papineau is still a stong place for NDP Liberals. He gets huge majorities in Parc-Extension and Saint-Michel, both immigrant areas which weren't there when his father was PM. He get clobbered and is a distant third in Villeray, through. It's a trendy hipster neighbourhood, which vote for QS provincially, so (but they have a Liberal MNA because they are paired with uber-Liberal Parc-Extension).

Through, as Villeray is growing, I wouldn't feel safe if I was him, it's not tranding in the right direction for him.

I actually think the NDP has a chance in Papineau.  Many who would have voted NDP last time around voted Bloc because they had a strong candidate (and former MP) running (and the NDP had basically a name-holder, and still came in 2nd).  I'm not sure if Barbot will run again for the Bloc here, but my thinking is that with a popular candidate, the NDP can garner the soft separatist vote, and consolidate the left vote.

The Liberals polling more than 15 points above what they got in Quebec in 2011 and you think their leader is going to lose his seat?

Not now, but lets remember Ignatieff was polling ten points higher than the 2008 results in Ontario when chosen as leader yet he lost his seat.  I agree its highly unlikely Trudeau would lose his seat, but its definitely possible.  Ironically Harper is probably the only leader who I can say with almost certainty will win his seat.  Even if his party fell to 40 seats, he would still easily win his seat.  In fact it was I believe in their top 10 best one's in the country.  Harper could only lose his if another right wing party emerged much like how the Reform Party snatched that seat from the PCs in 1993 and the WRA came very close to winning most of the ridings here over the PCs who held them in the last provincial election.

[toaster]

Also Trudeau is a noxious prettyboy who wouldn't even be a serious contender in his own riding if it wasn't for his last name. I'd vote NDP or Green before him.

Papineau is still a stong place for NDP Liberals. He gets huge majorities in Parc-Extension and Saint-Michel, both immigrant areas which weren't there when his father was PM. He get clobbered and is a distant third in Villeray, through. It's a trendy hipster neighbourhood, which vote for QS provincially, so (but they have a Liberal MNA because they are paired with uber-Liberal Parc-Extension).

Through, as Villeray is growing, I wouldn't feel safe if I was him, it's not tranding in the right direction for him.

I actually think the NDP has a chance in Papineau.  Many who would have voted NDP last time around voted Bloc because they had a strong candidate (and former MP) running (and the NDP had basically a name-holder, and still came in 2nd).  I'm not sure if Barbot will run again for the Bloc here, but my thinking is that with a popular candidate, the NDP can garner the soft separatist vote, and consolidate the left vote.

The Liberals polling more than 15 points above what they got in Quebec in 2011 and you think their leader is going to lose his seat?

I'm saying it's not inconceivable to think the NDP has a chance in that riding, and that it mostly depends on low Bloc support.

[Hatman 🍁]

Who has a better chance of losing their seat, Mulcair or Trudeau?

[mileslunn]

Who has a better chance of losing their seat, Mulcair or Trudeau?

At the moment Mulcair, but a year ago I would have said Trudeau.  In 2015 who knows.  Both are from Quebec where the electorate is even less predictable than in other provinces so its anyone's guess.  One thing I know for sure is the Conservatives will lose both ridings badly, otherwise no defeating the leader like they did with Ignatieff in 2011.

[adma]

Mulcair's more likely insofar as he's more likely to have a "star" challenger making claims to Outremont's "Liberal history" (would Cauchon try here, or elsewhere?)

[cp]

I think Mulcair and Trudeau are both pretty well ensconced in their respective ridings. They're good fits personality-wise and they have strong local organizations behind them to turn out the vote. They have both fought close elections recently (Mulcair was only reelected by 5 points in 2008) and regardless of how their respective parties are doing, they're both personally popular in the province.

A more interesting question might be will the BQ win a seat for its leader, Daniel Paillé. Paillé lost his seat in 2011 by 17 points and, considering the BQ's numbers lately, might have trouble finding any seat in the province that could be considered 'safe'.

On the other side of the country, Elizabeth May won her seat by a solid margin and is unlikely to lose it for the same reasons Mulcair and Trudeau won't.

[DC Al Fine]

I think Mulcair and Trudeau are both pretty well ensconced in their respective ridings. They're good fits personality-wise and they have strong local organizations behind them to turn out the vote. They have both fought close elections recently (Mulcair was only reelected by 5 points in 2008) and regardless of how their respective parties are doing, they're both personally popular in the province.

A more interesting question might be will the BQ win a seat for its leader, Daniel Paillé. Paillé lost his seat in 2011 by 17 points and, considering the BQ's numbers lately, might have trouble finding any seat in the province that could be considered 'safe'.

On the other side of the country, Elizabeth May won her seat by a solid margin and is unlikely to lose it for the same reasons Mulcair and Trudeau won't.

Looking at regional polls, most of the Liberals gains have come at the expense of the NDP. Paille's best bet would be to pick a riding where the NDP didn't beat the Bloc by much and the Liberals aren't really a factor. His old riding fits these parameters pretty well.

[Space7]

Obviously predictions can't be very accurate at this point, but we can make some educated guesses.

If I have to make a guess, I would say a conservative minority. Despite the fact that Trudeau will likely bring up his party's votes considerably, the conservatives have several advantages, namely:

Cash: The conservatives tend to raise more funds than any other party, as far as I have heard
Incumbency: Incumbency advantage, always a factor, if a small one
Right wing advantage: Regardless of any evidence to the contrary, people seem to like voting for which ever party says "economy" the most in their campaign.
Riding redistribution: The new distribution of riding favours the conservatives considerably
Vote concentration: The conservatives have a stronger riding base than either of the two other main parties, Alberta is so right wing that the other two parties barely have a chance of winning any more than one riding, Interior BC and rural Vancouver are consistently Conservative, most of Saskatchewan, rural Manitoba, and rural Ontario are the same story. NDP and Liberal ridings are more prone to switching, as is exemplified by last election's "orange crush". For the liberals to win, the would have to nearly sweep Quebec, (a tall order, because of the Bloc, NDP incumbency, and a slightly damaged "Trudeau" name brand), and they would have to win practically all of the Toronto suburbs, the Marintines, and a handful of western canada ridings. I expect Harper will use his considerable funding to swamp Toronto with attack ads, thereby greatly reducing the liberal's chance of winning. I hate saying this, but the NDP are the long shot in this election, even if they ran an excellent campaign, they would probably just split the vote with the liberals, and NDP support seems to struggle in the Toronto suburbs.

All the same, anything could happen.