Canadian federal election - 2015

[MaxQue]

Could I ask how the boundary changes are coming along (and by association calculation of the notionals from 2011 as well)?

The notionals are usually calculated by Elections Canada, once the map is finalised in all provinces. For now, it's finished in Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Manitoba and Alberta.

Ontario, Quebec, Saskatchewan and British Columbia are left (the three biggest provinces and the one which current map is a blatant gerrymanderer and than Government is fighting to keep).

Official website: http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?document=home&lang=e

[politicallefty]

The Conservatives are trying to keep the Saskatchewan "rurban" ridings in place? Ugh. I know it won't benefit them by having a more reasonable map, but it's still absurd to hack apart cities as the current map does. Their problem is that they cannot keep 13/14 ridings with a more reasonably drawn map. With cities intact, the NDP should easily win some seats in the province, which they haven't been able to do since 2000.

With that said, how do the other provinces gaining seats look?

I know Alberta is the Conservative fortress, but can the opposition make some gains? Edmonton-Strathcona seems to have been fairly solidified in the NDP camp. What would come next for them now? What about the Liberals? And can any other party potentially break into Calgary?

My other question is how thew new proposed maps ultimately deal with the balance of power. How do the proposed lines in each of Ontario, Quebec, and BC favour the parties?

[DC Al Fine]

The Conservatives are trying to keep the Saskatchewan "rurban" ridings in place? Ugh. I know it won't benefit them by having a more reasonable map, but it's still absurd to hack apart cities as the current map does. Their problem is that they cannot keep 13/14 ridings with a more reasonably drawn map. With cities intact, the NDP should easily win some seats in the province, which they haven't been able to do since 2000.

With that said, how do the other provinces gaining seats look?

I know Alberta is the Conservative fortress, but can the opposition make some gains? Edmonton-Strathcona seems to have been fairly solidified in the NDP camp. What would come next for them now? What about the Liberals? And can any other party potentially break into Calgary?

My other question is how thew new proposed maps ultimately deal with the balance of power. How do the proposed lines in each of Ontario, Quebec, and BC favour the parties?

1) It's funny because the rurban ridings were originally an NDP gerrymander . Turning the two major cities of Sasketchewan into urban and rural ridings ought to results in turning the map into 4 safe seats.

2) There are two seats in Edmonton that lefties could pick up (Edmonton McDougall & Edmonton Griesbach) with a united left wing vote, a good candidate and a swing against the Tories. Griesbach in particular seems like a potential pick up for the NDP because it's basically Edmonton East with some conservative suburbs removed. If a lot of stuff went wrong for the Tories, the Liberals might win a seat in Calgary.

3) I suppose they mostly benefit the Tories simply because the growth has been in Tory leaning suburbs. Most of that is notionally conservative only because the Tories won the last election though

[Space7]

With that said, how do the other provinces gaining seats look?

I know Alberta is the Conservative fortress, but can the opposition make some gains? Edmonton-Strathcona seems to have been fairly solidified in the NDP camp. What would come next for them now? What about the Liberals? And can any other party potentially break into Calgary?

My other question is how thew new proposed maps ultimately deal with the balance of power. How do the proposed lines in each of Ontario, Quebec, and BC favour the parties?

There will be 15 new ridings in Ontario, 6 in BC, 6 in Alberta, and 3 in Quebec.

The 15 Ontario ridings are mostly in the Greater Toronto Area, traditionally Liberal, but this whole area was won by the Conservatives last election, and so it is extremely important for any party that wants to win.

The 6 in BC are slated for Greater Vancouver (4), Inner Vancouver (1), and 1 on Vancouver Island. Greater Vancouver is traditionally Conservative, the new riding in Inner Vancouver is in a Conservative section of the city, and Vancouver Island tends to balance between the NDP and the Conservatives.

The 6 in Alberta will all go Conservative. It's true that it's possible that the NDP or the Liberals will win a few seats in Alberta, but there are easier seat pickups elsewhere, and I doubt they'll really try too hard in Alberta.

The 3 in Quebec will be on Montreal Island, it's anyone's guess who they will end up voting for.

New seats aside, the old seats will all be shuffled to make room for them, but besides in Saskatchewan, there doesn't seem to be too many extremely significant changes, or we won't be able to see the changes too clearly until the election starts to loom closer.

1) It's funny because the rurban ridings were originally an NDP gerrymander . Turning the two major cities of Sasketchewan into urban and rural ridings ought to results in turning the map into 4 safe seats.

What?

Also, you would think lumping a massive amount of rural land with each of the four quarters of two cities would be considered a Conservative gerrymander. Am I missing something?

[MaxQue]

Two things.

One, the ridings in Quebec, are in the Montreal suburbs, not on the Island.
For Saskatchewan, NDP throught than the urban vote would outweight the rural vote, which was true until the right-wing union.

[DC Al Fine]

1) It's funny because the rurban ridings were originally an NDP gerrymander . Turning the two major cities of Sasketchewan into urban and rural ridings ought to results in turning the map into 4 safe seats.

What?

Also, you would think lumping a massive amount of rural land with each of the four quarters of two cities would be considered a Conservative gerrymander. Am I missing something?

Well right now, Regina & Saskatoon each consist of 4 rurban ridings, most of which are varying degrees of Tory. Splitting each city into two rural and two urban ridings ought to change each area into two safe NDP seats and 2 safe Tory seats.

The gerrymander was originally meant to favour the NDP. Back in the 1980's, when the gerrymander was created, the NDP still had a prairie populist element. This made the cities safe NDP, and the rural areas only sort of conservative. By combining them together into rurban ridings, you got many marginal NDP seats. As time went on, the NDP lost the prairie populist part of their coalition and the rural areas became super conservative, which in turn flipped the gerrymander to favour the Tories.

[RogueBeaver]

Focusing on my own turf, CROP pegs the 450 couronne as a Liberal-Dipper dead heat, 38-36. It'll certainly be a hotly contested battleground in 2015.

[adma]

Victoria:
Here, the Greens got *only* 9%, but if I remember correctly, it'll be a little more feasible next election because the redistribution cuts off a big chunk of Green support from Saanich-Gulf Islands and attaches it to Victoria. Also, last time the NDP got over 50% in this riding, and presumably if the Greens were to win a riding most of their new votes would come from the NDP. Their candidate last time was the relatively obscure Jared Giesbrecht, but if they were to run one of their star candidates, and add some more funding, maybe...

You seem to have forgotten the recent byelection where they nearly defeated the NDP.

[DC Al Fine]

I found the notional results for Sasketchewan. NDP pick up a seat each in Saskatoon and Regina. As expected, the rural areas are super safe Tory seats.

[Space7]

1) It's funny because the rurban ridings were originally an NDP gerrymander . Turning the two major cities of Sasketchewan into urban and rural ridings ought to results in turning the map into 4 safe seats.

What?

Also, you would think lumping a massive amount of rural land with each of the four quarters of two cities would be considered a Conservative gerrymander. Am I missing something?

The gerrymander was originally meant to favour the NDP. Back in the 1980's, when the gerrymander was created, the NDP still had a prairie populist element. This made the cities safe NDP, and the rural areas only sort of conservative. By combining them together into rurban ridings, you got many marginal NDP seats. As time went on, the NDP lost the prairie populist part of their coalition and the rural areas became super conservative, which in turn flipped the gerrymander to favour the Tories.

I found the notional results for Sasketchewan. NDP pick up a seat each in Saskatoon and Regina. As expected, the rural areas are super safe Tory seats.

Ah, I see, that makes sense. The other Regina and Saskatoon city ridings will also probably be marginal seats, even if the Conservatives are slightly ahead.

Victoria:
Here, the Greens got *only* 9%, but if I remember correctly, it'll be a little more feasible next election because the redistribution cuts off a big chunk of Green support from Saanich-Gulf Islands and attaches it to Victoria. Also, last time the NDP got over 50% in this riding, and presumably if the Greens were to win a riding most of their new votes would come from the NDP. Their candidate last time was the relatively obscure Jared Giesbrecht, but if they were to run one of their star candidates, and add some more funding, maybe...

You seem to have forgotten the recent byelection where they nearly defeated the NDP.

Sorry about my lack of recent political knowledge. I only got interested in politics quite recently.

If that's the case, Victoria will definitely be a target for the Greens. Maybe the other two ridings as well if they think they have the resources.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Back in the 1980's, when the gerrymander was created...

No, it dates from the 1990s. Of course there were rurban ridings before then, but not the peculiar quartering of the cities.

[DC Al Fine]

Back in the 1980's, when the gerrymander was created...

No, it dates from the 1990s. Of course there were rurban ridings before then, but not the peculiar quartering of the cities.

Ah, I see. Actually now that I look at the notional results of the 1993 election translated over the 1990's boundaries, it looks more like a Liberal gerrymander, especially in Regina.

[Hatman 🍁]

You're right, the boundaries really hurt the NDP in favour of the Liberals

1993 results (transposed)
Reform: 4
Liberal: 8
NDP: 2

1993 actual
Reform: 4
Liberal: 5
NDP: 5

[Harry Hayfield]

Could I ask how the boundary changes are coming along (and by association calculation of the notionals from 2011 as well)?

The notionals are usually calculated by Elections Canada, once the map is finalised in all provinces. For now, it's finished in Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Manitoba and Alberta.

Ontario, Quebec, Saskatchewan and British Columbia are left (the three biggest provinces and the one which current map is a blatant gerrymanderer and than Government is fighting to keep).

Official website: http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?document=home&lang=e

I have just phoned Elections Canada and they have said that they will send me the information about the new ridings when they are formally published however, they said that they had NOTHING to do with the notionals. Perhaps if I explain what I mean by notionals, someone will tell me where such information is kept.

"Notionals" in the UK are the name given to calculations done by the University of Plymouth (headed by Prof. Thrasher and Rallings) where each new riding is calculated as if it existed at the last election) as we had at the last election. It is THESE calculations that I am looking for

[DC Al Fine]

Could I ask how the boundary changes are coming along (and by association calculation of the notionals from 2011 as well)?

The notionals are usually calculated by Elections Canada, once the map is finalised in all provinces. For now, it's finished in Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Manitoba and Alberta.

Ontario, Quebec, Saskatchewan and British Columbia are left (the three biggest provinces and the one which current map is a blatant gerrymanderer and than Government is fighting to keep).

Official website: http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?document=home&lang=e

I have just phoned Elections Canada and they have said that they will send me the information about the new ridings when they are formally published however, they said that they had NOTHING to do with the notionals. Perhaps if I explain what I mean by notionals, someone will tell me where such information is kept.

"Notionals" in the UK are the name given to calculations done by the University of Plymouth (headed by Prof. Thrasher and Rallings) where each new riding is calculated as if it existed at the last election) as we had at the last election. It is THESE calculations that I am looking for

http://fed2013.pollmaps.ca/

This site has unofficial notional results. It should tide us over till the real ones come out.

[Hatman 🍁]

Elections Canada doesn't use the term "notionals", so they probably had no idea what you were talking about. The term they use is "redistributed results" or a "transposition of results". They do publish this data. 

[DC Al Fine]

The 308 has his May polling averages up.

Liberal: 40%, 152 seats
Conservative: 27.6%, 102 seats
NDP: 23.3%, 74 seats
Bloc: 4.1%, 2 seats
Green: 4.1%, 1 seat

Ugh, hopefully the NDP & Tories improve soon.

[Hatman 🍁]

No way the Liberals only get 152 seats with those numbers...

[jaichind]

No way the Liberals only get 152 seats with those numbers...

On the surface I would agree with you.  Really comes down to Ontario.  I guess 308.com took a view that the ND vote will be concentrated in a way in Ontario as to take away Liberals seats in Lib-Conservative marginals as well having a relative advantage in ND-Liberal marginals.  A comparison with 2004 election I think is helpful
               
                                  Lib vote    Lib seats    ND vote   ND seats   Cons vote  Cons seats
2004                            44.7            75             18.1            7               31.5           24
2015 (308.com)            41.6            61            21.7          17                32.6          43

A relative shift of the vote from Lib to ND from 2004 to a projected 2015 results in Lib going from getting 71% of the seats to 50% of the seats in Ontario.

[Space7]

No way the Liberals only get 152 seats with those numbers...

2 more reasons:

1: ThreeHundredEight has given the NDP the advantage in rural Quebec. Liberal power is heavily concentrated in and around Montreal, this knocked off a very, very large amount of seats, in fact, the Liberals are over 10 points ahead of the NDP in Quebec, but his projection is giving the NDP more seats than the Liberals.

2:The CPC's vote share is extremely effective. Rural ridings virtually all have a "perfect" vote share, at the point where their vote isn't concentrated and therefore wasted, but is also powerful enough so that even if the Conservatives have low percentages, they have just enough support in these ridings to win.

[RogueBeaver]

Which is weird considering CROP pegs the Liberals ahead 39-29 in ROQ and tied with Francophones. Agreed on the Tory stuff.

[Peter the Lefty]

Dear God, please let the Trudeau bubble pop soon.

[RogueBeaver]

As we just saw in BC, midterm polls are a snapshot in time. We're barely halfway through this Parliament.

[Space7]

Might as well give a run down of what the graphs are showing.

BC: The three parties are almost tied now. Liberals are bound to hit the roof soon here, the Liberals have never done that well in BC.

Alberta:The CPC is at... 47%! Below 50! The Liberals are at 33. It'll never hold... The 7 seats that ThreeHundredEight is giving the Liberals in Alberta will be nonexistent come election day.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba: CPC at 38, Liberals at 33, NDP at 22. Nothing unusual here really, the CPC's small drop in support already seems to be leveling out.

Ontario: Liberals are skyrocketing and not yet slowing down, at the expense of all three of the other parties. They are almost 10 points ahead of the CPC at the moment.

Quebec:The Bloc is at a historic low of 17%. Interesting here though, the Liberals seem to already be hitting their ceiling at roughly 41%, and the NDP are already recovering, going from 26 to 28 percent in the last month.

Atlantic: At expected, The Liberals are rocketing upwards here. Doesn't look like they're about to stop yet. The CPC and NDP are tied here at 21%. The Liberals are at 53 and counting.

[MaxQue]

Quebec:The Bloc is at a historic low of 17%. Interesting here though, the Liberals seem to already be hitting their ceiling at roughly 41%, and the NDP are already recovering, going from 26 to 28 percent in the last month.

Good. It seems than waves are going quickly in Quebec than elsewhere. Bloc is going nowhere, but it's not surprising given than they are nowhere in medias.