Canadian federal election - 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks Adam, very interesting.

[136or142]

One more, from B.C
Fin Donnelly, New Westminster-Coquitlam M.P, 2011-,
 has made fourteen marathon swims covering 3,200 km of BC's rivers, lakes and the ocean, including twice swimming the 1,400 km length of the Fraser River

[Smid]

I think I've ironed out the creases, let me know if you see any errors. Still finalising checking for rogue pixels, but I think I've found them all.




And here is a version to make things a bit clearer along the BC coastline and some other island parts:

[Hatman 🍁]

What a wonderful Christmas present, Smid!

[Smid]

I found a rogue pixel in Edmonton-Wetaskiwin. It's been fixed. I also made a minor change on the main map for around Saskatoon (no change to inset). There may have been one other change, I forget. Anyway, if you previously downloaded this map, please update.


Also, here is the 2011 Results Map. I'm about to commence work on Conservative/NDP/Liberal vote share maps, but they will be over the next few days. Results as provided by Pundits' Guide because Elections Canada provided notional figures based on ridings they provided, prior to the Parliament making a few changes (and since I didn't know the extent of the changes, I didn't want to use their figures. Anyway, here are the overall results:

[MaxQue]

I found a rogue pixel in Edmonton-Wetaskiwin. It's been fixed. I also made a minor change on the main map for around Saskatoon (no change to inset). There may have been one other change, I forget. Anyway, if you previously downloaded this map, please update.


Also, here is the 2011 Results Map. I'm about to commence work on Conservative/NDP/Liberal vote share maps, but they will be over the next few days. Results as provided by Pundits' Guide because Elections Canada provided notional figures based on ridings they provided, prior to the Parliament making a few changes (and since I didn't know the extent of the changes, I didn't want to use their figures. Anyway, here are the overall results:

If I remember well, Election Canada figures were pretty lousy, too, upsetting all parties (I think they didn't used polls, they used the flawed logic than if 60% of a riding is moved to another, this transfer 60% of the votes of every party in said riding.

[DC Al Fine]

Quebec is going to be quite difficult to project. I was playing around with my proportional swing model. Based off the most recent polls, 25-30 seats will have winners with < 35% of the vote.

[SNJ1985]

http://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Abacus_Release_PoliticalTracking_Dec2014.pdf

34% Conservatives
33% Liberals
22% NDP
6% Greens
4% Bloc Québécois

[Smid]

I found a couple of errors in the maps, which I've corrected. I'm still not entirely satisfied with a couple of parts of the main map - Richmond Hill appears to border with the City of Toronto, and Brossard - St-Lambert appears to border Saint-Jean, rather than merely touching corners. I may just leave them as is, because it's only on the main map and they're so small it's barely noticeable. There isn't much room to make corrections, so the other option is to merge them into a single dark grey strip (La Prairie, Brossard - St-Lambert, Longueuil - Charles-LeMoyne and Longueuil - Saint-Hubert and possibly also Montarville, Beloeil - Chambly, and/or Pierre-Boucher - Les Patriotes - Vercheres), and if that's the case, I'd probably also do the Northern equivalent as well: Riviere-des-Mille-Iles, Therese-de Blainville, Terrebonne, and possibly also Mirabel, Riviere-du-Nord, Repentigny, and/or Montcalm.

For Toronto, the option there is likewise to amalgamate the relevant block of ridings - possibly including Newmarket-Aurora, into a group as well.

In all cases, all affected ridings appear in the inset and are able to be shaded there more clearly. I could leave all as is, either to be shaded, or to be left grey, or to consolidate them. Interested in what people think. Are they off enough that they need to be fixed, or can they left be? They're pretty small on the main map, but are noticeable at a higher level of zoom.

Anyway, as I mentioned, there have been a few other errors that I've corrected, as well. If you've downloaded the base map previously, it's probably best if you go back to the Blank Maps Gallery and re-download it. Meanwhile, here are the base maps, and vote share maps for the Conservatives, NDP, Liberals, and Greens. Bigger versions in Gallery, etc. I may also do a winning margins map, and possibly a turnout map, too. Meanwhile, enjoy:


2013 Canadian Federal Redistribution - Blank Map



2013 Canadian Federal Redistribution - Blank Map Shaded



2011 Canadian Federal Election Results Map - Adjusted to 2013 Redistributed Boundaries



2011 Canadian Federal Election - Conservative Vote Share Map - Adjusted to Redistributed Boundaries



2011 Canadian Federal Election - NDP Vote Share Map - Adjusted to Redistributed Boundaries



2011 Canadian Federal Election - Liberal Vote Share Map - Adjusted to Redistributed Boundaries



2011 Canadian Federal Election - Greens Vote Share Map - Adjusted to Redistributed Boundaries

[Zanas]

Wow I didn't know the Greens had had such a strong showing in Yukon ! Yet they seem to be nearly absent from territorial politics. How did they manage that ?

[DC Al Fine]

Wow I didn't know the Greens had had such a strong showing in Yukon ! Yet they seem to be nearly absent from territorial politics. How did they manage that ?

Territorial politics are extremely candidate based.

[lilTommy]

Wow I didn't know the Greens had had such a strong showing in Yukon ! Yet they seem to be nearly absent from territorial politics. How did they manage that ?

Territorial politics are extremely candidate based.

Weak NDP vote and a strong green candidate. I believe they came in Third (the Greens), going back to 2008. The NDP had been very weak territorialy at that time as well the party was in relative disarray by the looks of it. They have since rebuilt themselves and are the opposition in the territory.
Depends on who they run; I'm hearing former Green Party of Ontario leader Frank de Jong might run for the Yukon nod

[136or142]

The only declared candidate for the NDP in  Yukon is Victor Kisoun
Kisoun defines himself as a “young cultural performer and community organizer,” Kisoun served as vice-chair of the Kaska Dena Council, He has helped create and direct youth land-based cultural camps, according to the release. Kisoun has also managed a tourism company, taught at the Yukon College, and appeared in and produced documentary films.

[136or142]

More NDP athletes
B.C
1.Doug Routley, MLA for Nanimo-North Cowichan (not to be confused with Cowichan Valley MLA Bill Routley who is no relation).
He was a bicycle racer and while training in Japan, met a bicycle manufacturer. After his return to Canada, Doug established a bicycle retail and wholesale company which had dealerships throughout Canada and the U.S. After selling his company, Mr Routley worked part time as a school custodian which, of course, requires a good deal of physical labor.

2.Jennifer Rice, North Coast MLA
She is a PADI open Water SCUBA instructor and NCCP Level 1 kayaking instructor.

Although I believe these are the only B.C NDP MLAs who competed in athletic competitions or employed in a physical activity, of course other MLAs are physically active.  For instance, David Eby, who I believe is the second youngest member of the caucus, is a runner.  Modified: wrong! Jennifer Rice and Jane Shin are younger. Shin is the youngest member of the caucus.
Oddly enough, 3 of the oldest members of caucus and 3 of the youngest members were first elected in the 2013 election:  George Heyman, Gary Holman and Judy Darcy are all in their 60s while Eby, Shin and Rice are all in their 30s.

Saskatchewan
NDP candidates for the 2015/2016 provincial election.  At present neither of these candidates probably have a hope of winning their ridings.
1.Ted Jaleta, Regina Coronation Park
Ted was born into a farm family in lush northwestern Ethiopia.  Ted was on track to become a world-class long distance runner when civil war broke out in Ethiopia in the 1970s.  Today, Ted, the coach of the Jaleta Pacers. He is a former coach of the University of Regina track and field and cross country teams.
He named a team after himself?

2.Vicki Mowat, Saskatoon Fairview  
In her spare time, Vicki enjoys cross-country skiing at Kinsmen Park, curling at the CN rink, biking on the Blairmore Bikeway, and distance running along the South Saskatchewan River downtown. She has participated in several half-marathons and other running events in the province over the past eight years.

What a coincidence, Vicki and I have so much in common.  She runs half marathons and on a good day I can walk half a mile.

[Smid]

2011 Canadian Federal Election - Margins of Victory by Riding, Notionally Adjusted to Redistribution

[retromike22]

Does anyone know where I can find a good Canadian election calculator?

[Harry Hayfield]

Does anyone know where I can find a good Canadian election calculator?

I've created a spreadsheet (using the same information as Smid) which can easily be changed into a calculator. If you are interested, PM me your e-mail address and I'll send it

[Smid]

I'm in the process of putting together a proportionate swing calculator. I had one for the previous boundaries. I can probably complete it tomorrow, but if not, I can certainly complete it this week.

Meanwhile, I found another two rogue pixels. I've corrected them and will be re-uploading the maps for anyone who wishes to download. If you're playing along at home and would rather just fix the mistakes yourself, one is in Rivière-des-Mille-Îles (in the Greater Montreal Inset) and the other is in the main map, on the electorate boundary, between West Nova and South Shore - St. Margarets.

Additionally, here is a turnout map:

2011 Canadian Federal Election Turnout Map, by Riding, Notionally Adjusted to reflect redistributed riding boundaries

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

did nobody tell Northeastern Alberta the election was on today?

[DC Al Fine]

did nobody tell Northeastern Alberta the election was on today?

My brother in law lives in that riding. It's mostly a boom town full of young single guys working in the oil sands, with a smattering of Aboriginals mixed in. Not exactly high turnout groups.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I was guessing it was an Abrigonal thing - but then the Yukon pretty much has the same demographics (I guess) and has a very good turnout?

[adma]

Naw; more a "transient worker w/no bonds to the community" thing.  The poll-by-polls for Fort Mac are notoriously low...

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, and they had a by-election on the day before Canada Day. You don't want to know how low the turnout was for that.

[Meeker]

I've been out of the loop for a few months. At this point what are the odds Harper steps down before the election?

[RogueBeaver]

I've been out of the loop for a few months. At this point what are the odds Harper steps down before the election?

Still virtually nil.