Canadian federal election - 2015

[politicallefty]

Looking at the new post-distribution maps, I'm curious to know what the seat breakdown is for that map (preferably by province). Obviously, the Conservatives looked to have gained quite a few ridings in Alberta, Ontario, and BC. However, they also appear to have lost some seats, notably two seats to the NDP in Saskatchewan (now that the rurban ridings have been eliminated).

[Hash]

Looking at the new post-distribution maps, I'm curious to know what the seat breakdown is for that map (preferably by province). Obviously, the Conservatives looked to have gained quite a few ridings in Alberta, Ontario, and BC. However, they also appear to have lost some seats, notably two seats to the NDP in Saskatchewan (now that the rurban ridings have been eliminated).

According to Pundit's Guide, the 2011 transposed results are:

Conservatives 188
NDP 109
Liberal 36
Bloc 4
Green 1

[Hatman 🍁]

Today was the first nomination meeting of the new year. The NDP acclaimed radio personality/author Ethan Rabidoux as their candidate in Perth-Middlesex, ON.  The MP for this riding, Gary Schellenberger will be retiring. The Tories have already nominated West Perth township councillor John Nater, and the Liberals have already nominated St. Marys town councillor Stephen McCotter.

[lilTommy]

I'm hearing rumours Jim Cuddy, Blue Rodeo fame is going to run for the NDP?

https://twitter.com/GetachewS/status/549990342528090112

That guy http://www.huffingtonpost.com/samuel-getachew/ isn't very NDP friendly from what i've read of of his writings on HuffPo. But I've heard some chatter on Rabble too that Cuddy will run, possibly St. Paul's (not the best for the NDP, University-Rosedale would be better is Jennifer Hollett decides to run in Spadina-Fort York)

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow, big news if it happens. Never heard of this Getachew person, though, so I doubt the credibility behind it.

St. Paul's is a fairly progressive riding, but has been left wing enough to give the NDP favourable numbers.

[DC Al Fine]

Hatman, what on Earth is your friend Teddy smoking?





8 seats for F&D... 8!!!

[MaxQue]

That's probably 9 or 10 too much seats for them. He also apparently wants me to have engineer Léandre Gervais as an MP (Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou).

[Linus Van Pelt]

Nice work on the maps, Smid.

[Hatman 🍁]

Teddy is obviously on some sort of drug. Our polling doesn't show "Others" at a statistically significant percentage anywhere in Quebec, though we have yet to probe F+D by name.

[DC Al Fine]

Teddy is obviously on some sort of drug. Our polling doesn't show "Others" at a statistically significant percentage anywhere in Quebec, though we have yet to probe F+D by name.

Indeed. Best case scenario for F et D is winning Fortin's seat off his personal vote.

[Smid]

Nice work on the maps, Smid.

Thanks!


Incidentally, I found another rogue pixel (in addition to the two noted in a previous post, in Quebec and Nova Scotia). This one is on the boundary between Cambridge and Wellington-Halton Hills, in the Golden Horseshoe inset. Please correct this, or download the corrected versions, if you have already downloaded any maps. The maps in the Gallery have now been updated prior to this post, and available for download.


Meanwhile, here are three maps showing how competitive the Conservative Party, Liberal Party and NDP are in each riding. The map compares the party's vote with its strongest competitor, shading the riding green if the party holds the riding (in which case the strongest competitor is the party that ran second), and red if another party holds the riding (obviously, if another party holds the riding, this is the strongest competitor). Obviously, if the party won the riding or came second, the shade is the same strength as the margin, but the margin is larger if the party polled third or lower.

Basically, pale green = key seat (sandbagging/defence), pale red = key seat (target), dark green = safe seat (held by party), dark red = safe seat (held by someone else). Of course, parties can experience large swings, so it's not perfect - much of Quebec would have been a fairly dark shade of red for the NDP prior to last election, after all. Nonetheless, some may still find these interesting. (Edit: Obviously, a dark red seat may not necessarily be a "safe seat" in the true sense of the word, merely that the party in question is a long way behind the leader - for example, Elmwood-Transcona on the Liberal Map is reasonably dark red, but last election was a close contest between the Conservatives and NDP).


2013 Canadian Federal Redistribution Map - Conservative Competitiveness by Riding
Based on 2011 Canadian Federal Election Results, notionally adjusted to reflect boundary changes



2013 Canadian Federal Redistribution Map - NDP Competitiveness by Riding
Based on 2011 Canadian Federal Election Results, notionally adjusted to reflect boundary changes



2013 Canadian Federal Redistribution Map - Liberal Competitiveness by Riding
Based on 2011 Canadian Federal Election Results, notionally adjusted to reflect boundary changes

[Hatman 🍁]

Teddy is obviously on some sort of drug. Our polling doesn't show "Others" at a statistically significant percentage anywhere in Quebec, though we have yet to probe F+D by name.

Indeed. Best case scenario for F et D is winning Fortin's seat off his personal vote.

Quebec MPs rarely have much of a "personal vote".

[RogueBeaver]

CRA, Atlantic-wide: 55/26/16.

[MaxQue]

Teddy is obviously on some sort of drug. Our polling doesn't show "Others" at a statistically significant percentage anywhere in Quebec, though we have yet to probe F+D by name.

Indeed. Best case scenario for F et D is winning Fortin's seat off his personal vote.

Quebec MPs rarely have much of a "personal vote".

It happened in the remote areas in the past. Guy St-Julien, André Harvey, the ever astonishing Nancy Charest (which had a personal vote despite being a former MNA)...

Negative personal vote is more common, through.

[DC Al Fine]

CRA, Atlantic-wide: 55/26/16.

Watch out Megan Leslie. She'd lose by a hefty margin based on those numbers.

[Smid]

CRA, Atlantic-wide: 55/26/16.

Watch out Megan Leslie. She'd lose by a hefty margin based on those numbers.

The interesting thing is - if you look at their polling chart on p2, at every election, the NDP has out-performed on election day compared to their final poll, while the Liberal Party has under-performed on election day compared to their final poll.

[Hatman 🍁]

CRA, Atlantic-wide: 55/26/16.

Watch out Megan Leslie. She'd lose by a hefty margin based on those numbers.

This poll was conducted in November? lol

[RogueBeaver]

Might as well crosspost: Grits raised $5.2M in Q4. No word on everyone else yet.

[adma]

Quebec MPs rarely have much of a "personal vote".

It happened in the remote areas in the past. Guy St-Julien, André Harvey, the ever astonishing Nancy Charest (which had a personal vote despite being a former MNA)...

Negative personal vote is more common, through.

And I'd deem Maxime Bernier to have a "personal vote" today.

[toaster]

Any chance the Bloc doesn't nominate a candidate in Papineau and it becomes a 2 person battle?  Wishful thinking...

Also, does anyone else think the NDP might have a shot at the new Mississauga - Malton?  Or would Brampton - East be where most of the NDP vote Jagmeet Singh got?

[RogueBeaver]

Papineau: lolno

[RogueBeaver]

Winnipeg South: Bruinooge is retiring.

[Boston Bread]

Any chance the Bloc doesn't nominate a candidate in Papineau and it becomes a 2 person battle?  Wishful thinking...

Also, does anyone else think the NDP might have a shot at the new Mississauga - Malton?  Or would Brampton - East be where most of the NDP vote Jagmeet Singh got?

As the map shows the NDP actually won what is now Brampton-East in 2011, and with their provincial gains in that riding with Singh this is their best shot in the 905. Mississauga-Malton looks much weaker for the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP might win Brampton East with Gurpeet Dhillon, but I wouldn't bet on it right now.  Malton itslelf isn't that big, and is the only part of the new riding that transferred from Bramalea-Gore-Malton.

[Hatman 🍁]

In nomination news, the NDP will acclaim incumbent MP Charlie Angus as their candidate in Timmins-James Bay tonight. No other party has a candidate there.