Canadian federal election - 2015

[136or142]

Prospective Liberal candidate Jodie Emery was denied permission to run for the party nomination in Vancouver East. 

I have to say I'm pleased about this. Although I generally believe that the local members should be allowed to decide who their candidate is, Emery is a one issue candidate who has supported political parties all over the map.  She was a Canadian supporter of Ron Paul in the 2012 election, has twice run provincially for the Green Party and has also voiced support in the past for the NDP.  She has no loyalty to the federal Liberal Party, and since the Liberal Party membership in Vancouver East is likely quite small (though I don't know that for sure) there was a danger she would sign up fellow travelers who also have no long term commitment to the party and win the nomination

[Hatman 🍁]

Four nomination races today:
*Trois-Rivieres, QC: NDP MP Robert Aubin will be acclaimed
*Toronto-Danforth, QC: NDP MP Craig Scott will be acclaimed
*Battlefords-Lloydminster, SK: Liberal nomination. Not sure who is running. Incumbent MP Gerry Ritz (CONS) has already been named the Conservative candidate.
*Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola, BC: NDP will acclaim Angelique Wood as their candidate. She is a former councillor on the Regional District of Okanagan-Similkameen. (She lost her seat last year). The Tories have already nominated Okanagan – Coquihalla MP Dan Albas and the Liberals have nominated  Metis lawyer Karley Scott.

[RogueBeaver]

Mourani will be nominated as the Dipper Ahuntsic candidate Wednesday.

[DC Al Fine]

Tories at 35% nationally, Bloc in the mid 20's in Quebec. Oh my!

[RogueBeaver]

After their wipeout in Ontario last year I'm more skeptical of Ipsos than previously, but this is in line with Abacus. I only trust QC # if they're from CROP/Leger.

[Hatman 🍁]

North Battleford city councillor Ray Fox wins the Liberal nomination in Battlefords-Lloydminster.

As for polls, both Ipsos and Abacus use opt-in panels, so they should both be lumped in as junk polls.

[Zanas]

Can we realistically believe the Bloc to end second in Quebec at 25% nowadays ? How is its splinter doing ? Forces et démocratie, is that it ? I'd seen a map with them winning a couple ridings, was it realistic ?

[DC Al Fine]

Can we realistically believe the Bloc to end second in Quebec at 25% nowadays ? How is its splinter doing ? Forces et démocratie, is that it ? I'd seen a map with them winning a couple ridings, was it realistic ?

No probably not. Forces et democratie is a non-entity. That map you saw was questionable to say the least. They have an outside chance at winning their leader's seat and that's it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, the Bloc is doing so-so right now, and will make it interesting in Quebec, where there will be a lot of NDP-BQ battles. Like DC said, F+D has a shot at their leader's seat, but nothing else at this point.

[Hatman 🍁]

Today's nomination races

- The NDP will acclaim their MP in Comton-Stanstead, QC, Jean Rousseau.
- There is a 3-way race for the Liberal nomination in Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, ON. This is a pretty cruical seat for the Liberals, as it is Ontario's most Francophone riding which used to be a safe Liberal seat. It's now a swing seat, due to it being mostly rural (but has some growing Ottawa exurbs). The incumbent MP is Tory Pierre Lemieux who has already been nominated.

[Hatman 🍁]

Francis "Frank" Drouin wins the Liberal nomination in Glengarry-Prescott-Russell. He is a government relations consultant from Hawkesbury.

We don't have any more nomination races until Tuesday in Brantford-Brant, ON where Marc Laferriere will be acclaimed as the NDP candidate. He ran for the NDP in 2011.  The Tories have already nominated incumbent MP Phil McColeman and the Liberals have nominated policy research analyst Danielle Takacs.

[Hatman 🍁]

Tonight is the NDP nomination in Ahuntsic-Cartierville, QC where Independent MP Maria Mourani will be acclaimed (the NDP bans floor crossing, so she doesn't sit as a New Democrat). Despite winning the riding for the BQ in 2011, the new boundaries favour the Liberals (with the NDP in 2nd, even), even though the Liberals finished third in Ahuntsic in 2011. This shift is explained by the neighbourhood of Cartierville (which was in Stephane Dion's riding) being transferred over to the new riding, and the fact that Ahuntsic was a tight 3 way race in 2011.

The Tories have already nominated William Moughrabi in the riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Next nominations meetings aren't until Saturday:

-In Abitibi—Témiscamingue, QC (MaxQue territory) the BQ will be nominating journalist Yvon Moreau. The NDP has already nominated its MP, Christine Moore and the Liberals have nominated executive director Claude Thibault.
-In Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, SK the Liberals will be nominating Lawrence Joseph who was the NDP candidate in 2011 (almost won it as well). The Conservatives have already nominated Robert Clarke, the incumbent.

[MaxQue]

Next nominations meetings aren't until Saturday:

-In Abitibi—Témiscamingue, QC (MaxQue territory) the BQ will be nominating journalist Yvon Moreau. The NDP has already nominated its MP, Christine Moore and the Liberals have nominated executive director Claude Thibault.

My riding is Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou, not Abitibi-Témiscamingue.

Where do you get all these dates?

[lilTommy]

Next nominations meetings aren't until Saturday:

-In Abitibi—Témiscamingue, QC (MaxQue territory) the BQ will be nominating journalist Yvon Moreau. The NDP has already nominated its MP, Christine Moore and the Liberals have nominated executive director Claude Thibault.

My riding is Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou, not Abitibi-Témiscamingue.

Where do you get all these dates?

No both of those riding's exist http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=qc&dir=now/reports&document=index&lang=e; Romeo Saganash in all likelihood will be the NDP Candidate in Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou

Well crap, "Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, SK the Liberals will be nominating Lawrence Joseph" - that's a real shame for the NDP, After presenting some strong candidates so far, he would have had the best chance at winning. Any word on who the NDP will nominate?

for those counting this is the third time an NDP candidate switched to the Liberals in this riding... Joan Beatty in 2008 who was a former NDP MLA, Rick Laliberte was a former NDP MP who went Liberal (sitting MP) and now Lawrence Joseph.

[MaxQue]

Next nominations meetings aren't until Saturday:

-In Abitibi—Témiscamingue, QC (MaxQue territory) the BQ will be nominating journalist Yvon Moreau. The NDP has already nominated its MP, Christine Moore and the Liberals have nominated executive director Claude Thibault.

My riding is Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou, not Abitibi-Témiscamingue.

Where do you get all these dates?

No both of those riding's exist http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=qc&dir=now/reports&document=index&lang=e; Romeo Saganash in all likelihood will be the NDP Candidate in Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou

I'm quite aware of that, I was just saying to Earl than Abitibi-Témiscamingue isn't my riding, like he said in his message. Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou is my riding and yes, Saganash will run there, nomination meeting is soon.

[lilTommy]

Next nominations meetings aren't until Saturday:

-In Abitibi—Témiscamingue, QC (MaxQue territory) the BQ will be nominating journalist Yvon Moreau. The NDP has already nominated its MP, Christine Moore and the Liberals have nominated executive director Claude Thibault.

My riding is Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou, not Abitibi-Témiscamingue.

Where do you get all these dates?

No both of those riding's exist http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=qc&dir=now/reports&document=index&lang=e; Romeo Saganash in all likelihood will be the NDP Candidate in Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou

I'm quite aware of that, I was just saying to Earl than Abitibi-Témiscamingue isn't my riding, like he said in his message. Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou is my riding and yes, Saganash will run there, nomination meeting is soon.

Oh sorry my bad... I should read a little closer, still stunned by Lawrence Joseph i suppose...

[Hatman 🍁]

Pfft, all of Abitibi is "MaxQue territory" as far as I'm concerned.

The dates are available at the pundit's guide site.

[MaxQue]

Pfft, all of Abitibi is "MaxQue territory" as far as I'm concerned.

The dates are available at the pundit's guide site.

I have good knowledge of Amos and Rouyn-Noranda in Abitibi-Témiscamingue, decent knowledge of Témiscamingue, but dismal one of La Sarre area.

I'm just very surprised than they hold it now, since the Amos area political focus is on Amos mayoral by-election on February 15 (and the two council vacancies).

[Hatman 🍁]

BQ leader Mario Beaulieu will be running in La Pointe-de-l'Ile, an NDP held riding in working class/nationalist stronghold in the east end of Montreal.

[DC Al Fine]

BQ leader Mario Beaulieu will be running in La Pointe-de-l'Ile, an NDP held riding in working class/nationalist stronghold in the east end of Montreal.

Seems reasonable.

If I had to pick an ideal non-Bloc held riding, I'd probably pick Manicougan, but Beaulieu is from Montreal, so a working class seat there is a good idea.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's a crap shoot which riding to pick, really, since the NDP and Bloc are going after the same kind of voters at this point.

[MaxQue]

BQ leader Mario Beaulieu will be running in La Pointe-de-l'Ile, an NDP held riding in working class/nationalist stronghold in the east end of Montreal.

Seems reasonable.

If I had to pick an ideal non-Bloc held riding, I'd probably pick Manicougan, but Beaulieu is from Montreal, so a working class seat there is a good idea.

No. Manicouagan wouldn't vote for someone which is not from Côte-Nord region or has no link with the area.

[DL]

It's a crap shoot which riding to pick, really, since the NDP and Bloc are going after the same kind of voters at this point.

They are actually NOT going after the same kind of voters. Under Beaulieu the BQ has turned away from Duceppe style social democracy with a dash of Quebec nationalism and they are now aiming purely for the votes of "pur et dur" sovereignists and Beaulieu is aligning himself firmly with PKP's vision of rightwing Quebec nationalism with heavy doses of xenophobia and Muslim-bashing...that will not be anything like the NDP message in 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

You'd think that, but there is still a correlation between NDP areas and BQ areas in Quebec. I'm not sure which ridings would most likely attract the kinds of people you describe. Perhaps more rural areas?