Canadian federal election - 2015

[DC Al Fine]

BQ leader Mario Beaulieu will be running in La Pointe-de-l'Ile, an NDP held riding in working class/nationalist stronghold in the east end of Montreal.

Seems reasonable.

If I had to pick an ideal non-Bloc held riding, I'd probably pick Manicougan, but Beaulieu is from Montreal, so a working class seat there is a good idea.

No. Manicouagan wouldn't vote for someone which is not from Côte-Nord region or has no link with the area.

I meant hypothetically. Obviously the leader being from Montreal changes the decision.

You'd think that, but there is still a correlation between NDP areas and BQ areas in Quebec. I'm not sure which ridings would most likely attract the kinds of people you describe. Perhaps more rural areas?

It's not a perfect fit, but I'd guess anywhere the PQ did well that Quebec Solidaire did poorly. So yeah, mostly rural areas, but where Beaulieu's riding is probably a good fit too. He might be pursuing "right wing nationalism" but I don't think he has the economic liberalism monkey on his back like PKP would.

[cp]

Has Beaulieu shown any inclination toward right-wing populism? There's definitely a lot of crossover between pur et dur nationalists and pure laine rightwingers but I'm not sure I've seen any evidence of Beaulieu making any appeals to the latter.

Also, would it be incorrect to compare rightwing Quebec nationalists with Ford nation?

[DL]

Beaulieu's biggest claim to fame before being BQ leader was as a buffoon who would lead "tours" of Montreal where he would point out the supposedly scandalous use of languages other than French on any signs (ie: "look at that horrid Royal Victoria Hospital - how dare they have a hospital in Montreal named after an English woman" "look at that clothing store that has an English name with just "Chez" before the name - its all part of a secret conspiracy to make Montreal totally English")

He is a pure xenophobe

[Hatman 🍁]

Back to nomination races, we have two contested races today:

* In Scarborough North, ON, the Liberals will be choosing between five candidates. The NDP have already nominated Scarborough-Rouge River MP Rathika Sitsabaiesan as the candidate here.
* In Cowichan-Malahat-Langford, BC, the NDP will be choosing between six candidates to replace outgoing MP Jean Crowder who is retiring. 

[DC Al Fine]

You'd think that, but there is still a correlation between NDP areas and BQ areas in Quebec. I'm not sure which ridings would most likely attract the kinds of people you describe. Perhaps more rural areas?

It's not a perfect fit, but I'd guess anywhere the PQ did well that Quebec Solidaire did poorly. So yeah, mostly rural areas, but where Beaulieu's riding is probably a good fit too. He might be pursuing "right wing nationalism" but I don't think he has the economic liberalism monkey on his back like PKP would.

I did a quick test from my projection model. Hypothetically, the best places for a Bloc leader to run (incumbency notwithstanding), is somewhere with lots of nationalists but few of the lefty types that vote Quebec Solidaire.

I ranked provincial ridings according to the following formula:
(PQ local %/PQ provincial %)(QS local %/QS provincial %)

By this measure, the best places for Beaulieu are mostly in the Gaspe.

[MaxQue]

Through, I expect Bloc to poll very poorly in Gaspésie, since the leader of "Forces et Démocratie" is from that region, through.

The Bloc goal of at least 10 seats (and 30 to 40 ideally) isn't realistic.

[VPH]

I feel that Beaulieu will do pretty well in La Pointe-de-l'Ile. That area of Montreal is very french-speaking and working class. However, there is a large presence of immigrants from the Maghreb region. Although many of these voters could vote for BQ, I think he has to avoid being racist/xenophobic. He can certainly be anti-Anglo and win the riding though.

[136or142]

Alistair MacGregor, M.P Jean Crowder's constituency assistant, won the NDP nomination today in Cowichan-Malahat-Langford.

[Hash]

However, there is a large presence of immigrants from the Maghreb region.

The riding is one of the (if not the) whitest Francophone parts of Montreal Island.

[Hatman 🍁]

Shaun Chen, the Chair of the Toronto District School Board wins the Liberal nomination in Scarborough North.

[lilTommy]

Jenny Kwan BCNDP MLA is entering the race for Vancouver East
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/mla-jenny-kwan-to-seek-federal-ndp-nomination-in-vancouver-east-1.2931271

Its a BCNDP battle, pretty epic one too. Also running is MLA Mable Elmore, both are strong female, minority candidates which every party loves, both are rather left leaning just as Libby is so that tradition should continue. The riding is pretty NDP resilient, and either candidate will hold the riding in all likelihood.
In my opinion Kwan would be best to win VanEast NDP nom; she has caused herself enough friction within the BCNDP (one of the bakers dozen who helps push Carole James out as leader) and has been there since 91. Her seat is probably one of if not the safest BCNDP seat so this would be an opportunity for renewal in Vancouver, some fresh new blood in that seat. She would be a new-ish face federally, with in-government experience and from the left of the party.
Elmore is considered to be a star herself, but has only been an MLA since 2005 (only) and has a much less polarizing affect on the BCNDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Van East will stay NDP unless we see a 1993 style wave election.

[DC Al Fine]

Van East will stay NDP unless we see a 1993 style wave election.

1993 is a great example of how voters can drift; a majority of the NDP caucus was from a province where they are currently shut out!

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Van East will stay NDP unless we see a 1993 style wave election.

1993 is a great example of how voters can drift; a majority of the NDP caucus was from a province where they are currently shut out!

The entire NDP caucus was from Western Canada, no less.

[DC Al Fine]

Does anyone know if Louis Plamondon is running again?

[RogueBeaver]

^ He is.

Q for Max: do you think Boulerice might be interested in leadership at some point?

[adma]

1993 is a great example of how voters can drift; a majority of the NDP caucus was from a province where they are currently shut out!

The entire NDP caucus was from Western Canada, no less.

And the only place in *Canada* which has seen continual NDP representation since 1993 is whatever inherited portion of Svend Robinson's 1993 constituency remains.  (And if any of it was inherited by Libby Davies in '97 or Peter Julian in '04--I'm not sure what the geographic configurations are.)

[MaxQue]

^ He is.

Q for Max: do you think Boulerice might be interested in leadership at some point?

I can't say for sure, I'm too far from Montreal, but I'm pretty sure than if the next leader is from English Canada, he will be most likely Deputy Leader.

I would say he might be interested in leadership, but won't run to replace Mulcair (or if he does, it will be to raise his profile outside Quebec, a bit like Nathan Cullen or Niki Ashton did last time).

[Hatman 🍁]

1993 is a great example of how voters can drift; a majority of the NDP caucus was from a province where they are currently shut out!

The entire NDP caucus was from Western Canada, no less.

And the only place in *Canada* which has seen continual NDP representation since 1993 is whatever inherited portion of Svend Robinson's 1993 constituency remains.  (And if any of it was inherited by Libby Davies in '97 or Peter Julian in '04--I'm not sure what the geographic configurations are.)

The entire Burnaby portion of the 1993 Burnaby-Kingsway riding has remained NDP since then. Fitting that the riding is now named for Tommy Douglas. If the NDP loses the new riding of Burnaby North-Seymour but keeps Burnaby South, then it the NDP continuous area will be reduced to a narrow strip.

Northeastern Burnaby (east of Spelling Ave) has gone NDP continuously since 1972, probably the part of the country that has had an NDP MP the longest. What's really amazing is this area may not have even voted NDP on its own in 2011.

[DC Al Fine]

1993 is a great example of how voters can drift; a majority of the NDP caucus was from a province where they are currently shut out!

The entire NDP caucus was from Western Canada, no less.

And the only place in *Canada* which has seen continual NDP representation since 1993 is whatever inherited portion of Svend Robinson's 1993 constituency remains.  (And if any of it was inherited by Libby Davies in '97 or Peter Julian in '04--I'm not sure what the geographic configurations are.)

The entire Burnaby portion of the 1993 Burnaby-Kingsway riding has remained NDP since then. Fitting that the riding is now named for Tommy Douglas. If the NDP loses the new riding of Burnaby North-Seymour but keeps Burnaby South, then it the NDP continuous area will be reduced to a narrow strip.

Northeastern Burnaby (east of Spelling Ave) has gone NDP continuously since 1972, probably the part of the country that has had an NDP MP the longest. What's really amazing is this area may not have even voted NDP on its own in 2011.

Much different for the Liberals who have had parts of Mount Royal since the 20's.

[Hatman 🍁]

1993 is a great example of how voters can drift; a majority of the NDP caucus was from a province where they are currently shut out!

The entire NDP caucus was from Western Canada, no less.

And the only place in *Canada* which has seen continual NDP representation since 1993 is whatever inherited portion of Svend Robinson's 1993 constituency remains.  (And if any of it was inherited by Libby Davies in '97 or Peter Julian in '04--I'm not sure what the geographic configurations are.)

The entire Burnaby portion of the 1993 Burnaby-Kingsway riding has remained NDP since then. Fitting that the riding is now named for Tommy Douglas. If the NDP loses the new riding of Burnaby North-Seymour but keeps Burnaby South, then it the NDP continuous area will be reduced to a narrow strip.

Northeastern Burnaby (east of Spelling Ave) has gone NDP continuously since 1972, probably the part of the country that has had an NDP MP the longest. What's really amazing is this area may not have even voted NDP on its own in 2011.

Much different for the Liberals who have had parts of Mount Royal since the 20's.

#naturalgoverningparty

[DC Al Fine]

1993 is a great example of how voters can drift; a majority of the NDP caucus was from a province where they are currently shut out!

The entire NDP caucus was from Western Canada, no less.

And the only place in *Canada* which has seen continual NDP representation since 1993 is whatever inherited portion of Svend Robinson's 1993 constituency remains.  (And if any of it was inherited by Libby Davies in '97 or Peter Julian in '04--I'm not sure what the geographic configurations are.)

The entire Burnaby portion of the 1993 Burnaby-Kingsway riding has remained NDP since then. Fitting that the riding is now named for Tommy Douglas. If the NDP loses the new riding of Burnaby North-Seymour but keeps Burnaby South, then it the NDP continuous area will be reduced to a narrow strip.

Northeastern Burnaby (east of Spelling Ave) has gone NDP continuously since 1972, probably the part of the country that has had an NDP MP the longest. What's really amazing is this area may not have even voted NDP on its own in 2011.

Much different for the Liberals who have had parts of Mount Royal since the 20's.

#naturalgoverningparty

I tried it for the Tories.

Only counting PC's/Modern Tories: Parts of the Maritimes + Brandon-Souris (1997)
Counting Reform: Calgary East/Calgary West (1945)
Counting Social Credit: Lethbridge (1930)

[RogueBeaver]

Breguet's first detailed projection.

[MaxQue]

Sana Hassania (Verchères-les-Patriotes), former NDP MP (she left over Gaza) and less present MP in the House wants to run as Liberal or Forces et Démocratie at the next election.

[lilTommy]

Sana Hassania (Verchères-les-Patriotes), former NDP MP (she left over Gaza) and less present MP in the House wants to run as Liberal or Forces et Démocratie at the next election.

She left over gaza and would join the Liberals? odd, their stance is more pro-israel then the NDPs no?