Canadian federal election - 2015

[DC Al Fine]

Sana Hassania (Verchères-les-Patriotes), former NDP MP (she left over Gaza) and less present MP in the House wants to run as Liberal or Forces et Démocratie at the next election.

She left over gaza and would join the Liberals? odd, their stance is more pro-israel then the NDPs no?

That does seem odd. I think she should run for F & D, because I like random fringe parties making a mess of things

[VPH]

However, there is a large presence of immigrants from the Maghreb region.

The riding is one of the (if not the) whitest Francophone parts of Montreal Island.

Maybe it's just the south of the riding that I have been in and seen the immigrant presence. My grandparents live on the border with Hochelaga riding. Is there any riding demographic data newer than 2011?

[Hatman 🍁]

2011 was the latest census

[RogueBeaver]

Some Quebec Dipper freshmen might lose renomination.

[lilTommy]

Some Quebec Dipper freshmen might lose renomination.

Most of this is actually good news, and rather then a fight to unseat an incumbent as we saw with Rob Anders in Calgary its really a sign of how well the growth of the NDP has taken route in the province, with newer supporters going up against some old time members since they think the NDP is the vehicle to win, something we'd expect to see with the Liberals who are polling well.
Francine Raynault (Joliette) and Marc-André Morin (Laurentides-Labelle) come from long history's of working within the party or being supporters and are being challenged by some strong local people in a Councillor and a young Doctor.
It is interesting to note that the younger MPs have mostly been renominated as Funke points out.
Tyrone Benskin (Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs,) is the only one of note that might have a negative push. Initially considered a moderate star, he had some tax evasion baggage that knocked him right out of the front bench. I'm not that familiar with the battle here but my outside take is Allison Turner might have the advantage over Vincent Héritier, but three way nom will be interesting to see.

What we should note is that the new faces of the NDP candidates, are robust and a strong bunch, again re-enforcing my comment that the depth of the NDP in Quebec is showing:
- EI rights advocate and lawyer Hans Marotte in Saint-Jean (where Tarik Brahmi is retiring),
- Lac Simon municipal councillor Chantel Crête in the new riding of Argenteuil-Le Petit Nation,
- economist Réjean Bellemare in Repentigny (where Jean-François Larose left the caucus),
- psychologist Marie-Josée Lemieux in the new riding of Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, 
- posties local president Karine Trudel in Jonquière (where Claude Patry left the caucus),
- former Bloc MP Maria Mourani in her riding of Ahuntsic-Cartierville

[DL]

I'm not sure that Francine Raynault or Marc-Andre Morin have such "long histories" of working within the NDP. They are both quite old - but as far as i know they were both last minute place holder names on the ballot for the NDP in 2011 who got swept in with the orange crush - i could be wrong but I was under the impression that they were people who had never been all that active (if at all) in the party prior to running.

[Hatman 🍁]

Last night the Liberals nominated Durham/Pickering Regional Councillor Jennifer O'Connell in the new riding of Pickering-Uxbridge, ON. She'll face Pickering-Scarborough East MP Coreneliu Chisu of the Conservatives.

Tonight the NDP will nominate their 2011 candidate Daniel Beals in Kingston and the Islands, ON.  And, the Greens will see a contested nomination in Cowichan-Malahat-Lanford, BC between farmer Dan Ferguson and business owner Fran Hunt-Jinnouchi. The Greens are trying to make inroads on Vancouver Island, and have the advantage of not needing to defeat an incumbent in this new riding.

[lilTommy]

I'm not sure that Francine Raynault or Marc-Andre Morin have such "long histories" of working within the NDP. They are both quite old - but as far as i know they were both last minute place holder names on the ballot for the NDP in 2011 who got swept in with the orange crush - i could be wrong but I was under the impression that they were people who had never been all that active (if at all) in the party prior to running.

Funke writes "...long-time NDP activist Francine Raynault, who finally ran in 2011, taking her turn after supporting earlier runs by her husband in the same seat. "
not sure about Marc-Andre Morin, but I've assumed a similar "long time activist" he was an environmental one, since at the start of the 2011 the NDP were still not seen as a huge threat in Quebec from what I remember outside of a handful of targeted seats

[Hatman 🍁]

Fran Hunt Jinnouchi wins the Green nomination in Cowichan-Malahat-Langford.

Lots of nomination races today:

-Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d’Orléans—Charlevoix, QC - NDP nomination race. Pundit's Guide doesn't show who is running, but I'm assuming MP Jonathan Tremblay will be acclaimed? Conservatives have already nominated former Beauport–Limoilou MP Sylvie Boucher.
-Etobicoke North, ON - NDP nomination race. Activist Faisal Hassan will be acclaimed. Liberals have already nominated the incumbent MP, Kirsty Duncan.
-Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock, ON - NDP nomination race. Two candidates including 2011 candidate Lyn Edwards. The incumbent Conservative MP is Barry Devolin, who is retiring. The Tories have nominated his assistant, Jamie Schmale to replace him. The Greens have nominated William McCallum.
-Mississauga-Lakeshore, ON (essentially the same borders as Mississauga South) - NDP nomination race. NDP will acclaimed Catherine Soplet, a poverty activist who previously ran for city council. The Liberals have nominated Dr. Sven Spengemann and the Tories have nominated the incumbent MP, Stella Ambler.
-Victoria, BC - Green nomination race. They will acclaim former CBC host Jo-Ann Roberts. This is a pivotol seat for the Greens, as they very nearly picked it up in a by-election. The NDP incumbent Murray Rankin has already been nominated.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm not sure that Francine Raynault or Marc-Andre Morin have such "long histories" of working within the NDP. They are both quite old - but as far as i know they were both last minute place holder names on the ballot for the NDP in 2011 who got swept in with the orange crush - i could be wrong but I was under the impression that they were people who had never been all that active (if at all) in the party prior to running.

Funke writes "...long-time NDP activist Francine Raynault, who finally ran in 2011, taking her turn after supporting earlier runs by her husband in the same seat. "
not sure about Marc-Andre Morin, but I've assumed a similar "long time activist" he was an environmental one, since at the start of the 2011 the NDP were still not seen as a huge threat in Quebec from what I remember outside of a handful of targeted seats

What were the NDP targets in Quebec before the Orange Wave? Gatineau was their only close 2nd. Maybe a couple Montreal seats?

[DL]

Ironically one of the NDP's targets in Quebec was a seat they didn't even win in 2011 - Westmount-Ville Marie!

As I recall, their targets at the start of the 2011 campaign were Gatineau, Hull-Aylmer, Rosemont-La Petite Patrie and Abitibi-James Baie etc...

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, Westmount turned out to be too "Toronto Centre like" to go NDP. It was the advance polls that helped the Liberals win it though, as many people voted before the orange wave.

[DL]

The thing is that Westmount was an NDP target in 2008 when they ran well known radio host Anne Lagace Dawson - but since she lost by a wide margin that year i guess the party moved on to other targets and they ended up nominating a candidate at the last minute who was a totally unknown executive in a cosmetics (!) company. If DAwson had run again, she would have easily won.

[136or142]

I'm not sure that Francine Raynault or Marc-Andre Morin have such "long histories" of working within the NDP. They are both quite old - but as far as i know they were both last minute place holder names on the ballot for the NDP in 2011 who got swept in with the orange crush - i could be wrong but I was under the impression that they were people who had never been all that active (if at all) in the party prior to running.

Funke writes "...long-time NDP activist Francine Raynault, who finally ran in 2011, taking her turn after supporting earlier runs by her husband in the same seat. "
not sure about Marc-Andre Morin, but I've assumed a similar "long time activist" he was an environmental one, since at the start of the 2011 the NDP were still not seen as a huge threat in Quebec from what I remember outside of a handful of targeted seats

What were the NDP targets in Quebec before the Orange Wave? Gatineau was their only close 2nd. Maybe a couple Montreal seats?

The only New Democrats in Quebec that I'm aware of that did well, outside of the 1988 and the 2011 elections were famous lawyer Robert Cliche in 1968 (the Liberals were so scared of him they recruited famous economist Eric Kierans to run against him),former provincial party leader Jean Paul Harney in 1984 in Gaspe (around 20% of the vote), prospective provincial party leader Pierre Ducasse in 2008 and former federal Liberal M.P and now NDP M.P Francoise Boivin in 2008.

[136or142]

Does anyone know why Quebec gained 3 seats for 2015-.  I thought the seat count in the Commons was based on dividing the 75 Quebec seats by the population of Canada.

In regards to the additional 30 seats in the Commons, I agree with former Liberal M.P David Anderson that the last thing Canada needs is more politicians.

[Hatman 🍁]

Does anyone know why Quebec gained 3 seats for 2015-.  I thought the seat count in the Commons was based on dividing the 75 Quebec seats by the population of Canada.

The NDP fought for this, since Quebec is still growing, and wanted to balance the seat gains in ON, AB & BC.

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[RogueBeaver]

BC Tory Randy Kamp retiring.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm not sure that Francine Raynault or Marc-Andre Morin have such "long histories" of working within the NDP. They are both quite old - but as far as i know they were both last minute place holder names on the ballot for the NDP in 2011 who got swept in with the orange crush - i could be wrong but I was under the impression that they were people who had never been all that active (if at all) in the party prior to running.

Funke writes "...long-time NDP activist Francine Raynault, who finally ran in 2011, taking her turn after supporting earlier runs by her husband in the same seat. "
not sure about Marc-Andre Morin, but I've assumed a similar "long time activist" he was an environmental one, since at the start of the 2011 the NDP were still not seen as a huge threat in Quebec from what I remember outside of a handful of targeted seats

What were the NDP targets in Quebec before the Orange Wave? Gatineau was their only close 2nd. Maybe a couple Montreal seats?

The only New Democrats in Quebec that I'm aware of that did well, outside of the 1988 and the 2011 elections were famous lawyer Robert Cliche in 1968 (the Liberals were so scared of him they recruited famous economist Eric Kierans to run against him),

I just looked him up. He came close in Laval in '68, but what's more impressive is that he got about 30% for the NDP in Beauce in 1965.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm not sure that Francine Raynault or Marc-Andre Morin have such "long histories" of working within the NDP. They are both quite old - but as far as i know they were both last minute place holder names on the ballot for the NDP in 2011 who got swept in with the orange crush - i could be wrong but I was under the impression that they were people who had never been all that active (if at all) in the party prior to running.

Funke writes "...long-time NDP activist Francine Raynault, who finally ran in 2011, taking her turn after supporting earlier runs by her husband in the same seat. "
not sure about Marc-Andre Morin, but I've assumed a similar "long time activist" he was an environmental one, since at the start of the 2011 the NDP were still not seen as a huge threat in Quebec from what I remember outside of a handful of targeted seats

What were the NDP targets in Quebec before the Orange Wave? Gatineau was their only close 2nd. Maybe a couple Montreal seats?

The only New Democrats in Quebec that I'm aware of that did well, outside of the 1988 and the 2011 elections were famous lawyer Robert Cliche in 1968 (the Liberals were so scared of him they recruited famous economist Eric Kierans to run against him),

I just looked him up. He came close in Laval in '68, but what's more impressive is that he got about 30% for the NDP in Beauce in 1965.

Today there is a county named for him in Beauce: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert-Cliche_Regional_County_Municipality

[Linus Van Pelt]

When the Conservative government reformed the representation formula to correct the under-representation of Alberta, B.C. and Ontario, their initial version had the result that Quebec was slightly underrepresented with 75, so after some criticism, they modified the formula to get it proportional with the new system at 78.

[136or142]

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Robert Cliche made himself famous (or more famous?) with his commission that looked into the corruption in the construction unions and construction companies.  The head legal adviser on the commission was Brian Mulroney who made his name with this commission.

[adma]

The only New Democrats in Quebec that I'm aware of that did well, outside of the 1988 and the 2011 elections were famous lawyer Robert Cliche in 1968 (the Liberals were so scared of him they recruited famous economist Eric Kierans to run against him),former provincial party leader Jean Paul Harney in 1984 in Gaspe (around 20% of the vote), prospective provincial party leader Pierre Ducasse in 2008 and former federal Liberal M.P and now NDP M.P Francoise Boivin in 2008.

*And*, don't forget Phil Edmonston winning the Chambly by-election in 1990.

Plus, Ducasse actually didn't do *that* great in 2008, sharewise (a titch under 20%--less than Dowson's share in Westmount-VM--and there were a number of other NPDers who got 15-20% that year)

Oh, and shouldn't forget, of course: Mulcair had already been byelected and then elected in Outremont.  (Which, even pre-Mulcair, tended to be the top Quebec seat the party was pitching for--they got over 15% in both '04 and '06 there)

[Hatman 🍁]

Fran Hunt Jinnouchi wins the Green nomination in Cowichan-Malahat-Langford.

Lots of nomination races today:

-Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d’Orléans—Charlevoix, QC - NDP nomination race. Pundit's Guide doesn't show who is running, but I'm assuming MP Jonathan Tremblay will be acclaimed? Conservatives have already nominated former Beauport–Limoilou MP Sylvie Boucher.
-Etobicoke North, ON - NDP nomination race. Activist Faisal Hassan will be acclaimed. Liberals have already nominated the incumbent MP, Kirsty Duncan.
-Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock, ON - NDP nomination race. Two candidates including 2011 candidate Lyn Edwards. The incumbent Conservative MP is Barry Devolin, who is retiring. The Tories have nominated his assistant, Jamie Schmale to replace him. The Greens have nominated William McCallum.
-Mississauga-Lakeshore, ON (essentially the same borders as Mississauga South) - NDP nomination race. NDP will acclaimed Catherine Soplet, a poverty activist who previously ran for city council. The Liberals have nominated Dr. Sven Spengemann and the Tories have nominated the incumbent MP, Stella Ambler.
-Victoria, BC - Green nomination race. They will acclaim former CBC host Jo-Ann Roberts. This is a pivotol seat for the Greens, as they very nearly picked it up in a by-election. The NDP incumbent Murray Rankin has already been nominated.

Indeed it was incumbent Jonathan Tremblay who was selected in Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d’Orléans—Charlevoix (riding should just be named Charlevoix-Montmorency!) for the NDP.

Lawyer/executive director Mike Perry won the nomination for the NDP in Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock (defeating Edwards).

No more nomination meetings until Thursday.

[Hatman 🍁]

Eric Guerbilsky won the nomination in Mississauga-Lakeshore for the NDP (Soplet was not acclaimed). He is the president of the riding association.

Interestingly, the riding is 95% of the former Mississauga South riding, yet the name has changed? Maybe they want to be like neighbouring Etobicoke-Lakeshore. What's next Oakville-Lakeshore?

[RogueBeaver]

Marc Desmarais is running for the Grits. Insert endless jokes here, especially since this guy is a lobbyist.