Canadian federal election - 2015

[RogueBeaver]

Add another Grit nomination kerfuffle to the list. For some reason this crop can't stop blabbing about internal procedure. HQ says he paid for thousands of straw memberships, he says he was pushed aside. HQ SOP or oldest cheat in the nomination book depending on who you believe. Go back to formal appointments, Grits.

[136or142]

The only New Democrats in Quebec that I'm aware of that did well, outside of the 1988 and the 2011 elections were famous lawyer Robert Cliche in 1968 (the Liberals were so scared of him they recruited famous economist Eric Kierans to run against him),former provincial party leader Jean Paul Harney in 1984 in Gaspe (around 20% of the vote), prospective provincial party leader Pierre Ducasse in 2008 and former federal Liberal M.P and now NDP M.P Francoise Boivin in 2008.

*And*, don't forget Phil Edmonston winning the Chambly by-election in 1990.

Plus, Ducasse actually didn't do *that* great in 2008, sharewise (a titch under 20%--less than Dowson's share in Westmount-VM--and there were a number of other NPDers who got 15-20% that year)

Oh, and shouldn't forget, of course: Mulcair had already been byelected and then elected in Outremont.  (Which, even pre-Mulcair, tended to be the top Quebec seat the party was pitching for--they got over 15% in both '04 and '06 there)

He didn't come close in 1965 but  internationally famous philosopher Charles Taylor ran for the NDP in 1965.  The Liberals were so scared of him, they recruited Pierre Trudeau to run against him and Trudeau crushed Taylor.  My dad lived in Westmount at the time and voted for Charles Taylor.

[King of Kensington]

Howard Hampton would be a great candidate for the NDP in Kenora, should he run.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-seeking-howard-hampton-s-return-to-politics-1.2940286

[King of Kensington]

Say it ain't so John!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/john-baird-to-resign-as-foreign-affairs-minister-sources-say-1.2940699

[RogueBeaver]

Crossposted in the discussion thread. Maybe something to do with Krudd's WHO offer? At any rate I guess Alexander replaces him at Foreign Affairs, Poilievre as minister responsible for NCR.

[RogueBeaver]

Fast becomes acting minister.

[Hatman 🍁]

Baird is resigning his seat as well. Very interesting. I was looking forward to seeing him run in Nepean. You can now move that new riding from "likely Conservative" to "toss up".

[DL]

Latest poll by Abacus:

CPC 33% (down 1%)
LPC 32% (down 1%)
NDP 24% (up 2% - almost all in Quebec)

http://abacusdata.ca/federal-tories-and-liberals-in-a-dead-heat/

[Hatman 🍁]

Tonight is the Liberal nomination in the new riding of Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, ON. Running are former Georgian College President Brian Tamblyn and bailiff Kevin Richards. The Tories have already nominated Barrie city councillor Alex Nutall in this notional Tory district.

Also tonight, the NDP will nominate former MuchMusic VJ Jennifer Hollett in University-Rosedale. She will take on Toronto Centre MP Chyrstia Freeland of the Liberals in that seat.

[MaxQue]

There is really a riding called "Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte"? I mean Springwater and Oro-Medonte are quite rural and small townships (or whatever Ontario calls them) than nobody ever visit on purpose (except crossing them using the highway).

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, there are two Barrie ridings now, so you can't call them both Barrie. I don't like the name either, but I can't think of anything better.

[DC Al Fine]

Well, there are two Barrie ridings now, so you can't call them both Barrie. I don't like the name either, but I can't think of anything better.

I concur. Barrie has been rurbanized, so Barrie North and Barrie South don't really work.

[136or142]

Barrie-Obama and Barrie-Sotero?

[Hatman 🍁]

Brian Tamblyn wins in Barrie-Springwater, etc.

[RogueBeaver]

Alexandrine Latendresse retiring.

[DC Al Fine]

What seats do you think will go against the general trend next election?

E.g. The Tories lost Saanich-Gulf Islands despite making gains in 2011.

Louis Saint Laurent is the only one that comes to mind.

[King of Kensington]

Also tonight, the NDP will nominate former MuchMusic VJ Jennifer Hollett in University-Rosedale. She will take on Toronto Centre MP Chyrstia Freeland of the Liberals in that seat.

What percentage of the electorate is west of University/Avenue Rd. - 2/3 maybe?

NDP would have won it in 2011  - but there was a big surge in Trinity-Spadina for Jack and Olivia.

[EPG]

What seats do you think will go against the general trend next election?

E.g. The Tories lost Saanich-Gulf Islands despite making gains in 2011.

Louis Saint Laurent is the only one that comes to mind.

There was chat about Mount Royal, wasn't there? Will that effort come to fruition?

[RogueBeaver]

MacLeod to decide within 2 weeks. Interestingly, her competition is a former Poilievre staffer. Unless he drops down. Hash, Hatman?

[136or142]

What seats do you think will go against the general trend next election?

E.g. The Tories lost Saanich-Gulf Islands despite making gains in 2011.

Louis Saint Laurent is the only one that comes to mind.

The Conservatives also lost one or two seats to the NDP in B.C in 2011.  Surrey Center and maybe one other.

[DC Al Fine]

What seats do you think will go against the general trend next election?

E.g. The Tories lost Saanich-Gulf Islands despite making gains in 2011.

Louis Saint Laurent is the only one that comes to mind.

There was chat about Mount Royal, wasn't there? Will that effort come to fruition?

Jews would have to swing pretty hard to the Tories given the Liberals' polling in Quebec. Winning Mount Royal in the next 10-15 years is a possibility, but I really doubt we'll pick it up in 2015.

Here's a more thorough list of seats that may go against the trend:

Conservative gains:

• Louis-Saint Laurent
• Maybe 1-2 seats in the Quebec City area

Liberal losses:

• None that I can think of. That's to be expected for a party that just got it's arse kicked.

NDP gains:

• Sault St. Marie
• Outside chance at Ahuntsic-Cartierville?

Bloc gains
These are all maybes/outside chances

• La Pointe de l'Ile
• A couple rural seats thanks to vote splitting

[King of Kensington]

I think the Tories have gotten pretty much everything they can get out of the Jewish vote - surely there are very few voters who yet haven't been convinced to switch due to Harper's Israel position if they haven't already.

Also, the Liberals have a very good candidate nominated in Mount Royal: Anthony Housefather, the popular mayor of CSL. 

[MaxQue]

Also tonight, the NDP will nominate former MuchMusic VJ Jennifer Hollett in University-Rosedale. She will take on Toronto Centre MP Chyrstia Freeland of the Liberals in that seat.

What percentage of the electorate is west of University/Avenue Rd. - 2/3 maybe?

NDP would have won it in 2011  - but there was a big surge in Trinity-Spadina for Jack and Olivia.

68% of University-Rosedale comes from Trinity-Spadina and 32% for Toronto-Centre. That is more or less the University/Avenue border (the only difference is than the University-College-Yonge-Dundas is east of University, but in Trinity-Spanida.)

[DL]

Jews would have to swing pretty hard to the Tories given the Liberals' polling in Quebec. Winning Mount Royal in the next 10-15 years is a possibility, but I really doubt we'll pick it up in 2015.

I doubt that very much...the Jewish population in Montreal is shrinking and on top of that younger Jews don't tend to stick around the tacky post-war suburban places where they grew up such as Cote St. Luc - if they stay in Montreal at all they move to ostentatious Mcmansions in Dollard or they move to trendy downtown core places. I'll bet that 10-15 years from now the percentage of voters in Mount Royal who are Jewish will have shrunk from 30% to 20% - if not even less. For all we know, an ugly tacky currently heavily Jewish area like Cote St. Luc could be mostly South Asian or North African a generation from now...

[Hatman 🍁]

What seats do you think will go against the general trend next election?

E.g. The Tories lost Saanich-Gulf Islands despite making gains in 2011.

Louis Saint Laurent is the only one that comes to mind.

There was chat about Mount Royal, wasn't there? Will that effort come to fruition?

Jews would have to swing pretty hard to the Tories given the Liberals' polling in Quebec. Winning Mount Royal in the next 10-15 years is a possibility, but I really doubt we'll pick it up in 2015.

Here's a more thorough list of seats that may go against the trend:

Conservative gains:

• Louis-Saint Laurent
• Maybe 1-2 seats in the Quebec City area

Liberal losses:

• None that I can think of. That's to be expected for a party that just got it's arse kicked.

NDP gains:

• Sault St. Marie
• Outside chance at Ahuntsic-Cartierville?

Bloc gains
These are all maybes/outside chances

• La Pointe de l'Ile
• A couple rural seats thanks to vote splitting

The NDP is tanking right now in Northern Ontario, there's no chance they'll win Sault Ste. Marie. It will be a Liberal-Tory race.

MacLeod to decide within 2 weeks. Interestingly, her competition is a former Poilievre staffer. Unless he drops down. Hash, Hatman?

I've heard that Steve Desroches (former city councillor) eventually wanted to make the jump to federal / provincial politics. I don't see him running against MacLeod though. Maybe he'll run for her provincial seat.

Let's not forget that Baird's seat is actually Ottawa West-Nepean. He just wanted to run in the new Nepean riding, despite there being no overlap. Who will the Tories run in OWN? It will be hard to keep with no Baird on the ballot.