Canadian federal election - 2015

[King of Kensington]

The Liberals have not yet nominated anyone to run againstg Joe Oliver in Eglinton-Lawrence either

That's true.  Oliver is the only Tory in Toronto with a high profile, all the rest are complete nobodies.  He is very much defeatable, but he may be the equivalent of David Young in 2003 (the one Tory if any who was going to survive in an anti-Tory swing in Toronto).

Other possibilities are perhaps Josh Colle running federally, or a high profile Jewish community figure.  I think the Liberals will want to have a strong candidate in place to run against Oliver, which is perhaps why they haven't nominated a candidate yet.

Blair is probably a better fit for SSW - he grew up in Scarborough and still lives there.  And "law and order" is more of an issue in Scarborough than in Eg-Law.  But I can see why they'd want to use Blair to knock off a high-profile Cabinet minister too rather than "waste" using Blair against Dan Harris whose election was basically a fluke anyway.

ETA: Part of me wonders whether Oliver will shift over to Thornhill, but I see Peter Kent is running again.  It looks like the Tories will have three 70+ incumbents running in the GTA (Fantino is running too).

[King of Kensington]

I was mistaken when I said Blair could run in Scarborough Southwest or Scarborough North.  The Liberals already have TDSB chair Shaun Chen running there.  SSW is the only Scarborough seat without a Liberal candidate now.

[DC Al Fine]

The weather guy for the local right wing talk radio station is running for the Greens in my riding. He was also a candidate for the provincial Liberals in 2003.

[Poirot]

LaSalle-Emard-Verdun, QC: Liberals have a contested race between David Lametti and Marc Tremblay. NDP have nominated LaSalle-Emard MP Helene Leblanc.

After reading your info I googled and found an article from last week and it talks of five candidates. (maybe some have dropped out since then?)

http://journalmetro.com/local/sud-ouest/actualites/714073/lasalle-emard-verdun-le-candidat-liberal-connu-dimanche/

Sherry Ao, notary
Gweneth Michelle Thirlwell, works at SNC engineers in Health, safety and environment
David Lametti, law professor at McGill university
Conrad Deschênes, works in real estate
Claudio Rocchi, retired from the banking sector

I've read something (maybe it was on La Presse website) about Lametti seeking the nomination a few days ago so he could be the favorite (or better at advertising himself). 

[Poirot]

Montcalm, QC: BQ nomination race between Marc Michaud and Jacques Tremblay.

Jacques Tremblay is a former city councillor of Mascouche and former president of Masson PQ riding association. He is the father of the Mascouche mayor.

Marc Michaud is a lawyer, former city councillor of Saint-Calixte. He was the official agent for Mario Beaulieu's leadership.

There was also a Bloc nomination for the riding of Terrebonne today. The two candidates were Lise Barry and Michel Boudrias. Boudrias will be the candidate. He participated in the Afghan mission.

In Montcalm and Terrebonne the Bloc finished second with 30% of the vote last election but 20% behind the NDP.   

[RogueBeaver]

Eve Adams just crossed the floor to Team Justin. Good riddance.

[RogueBeaver]

She's been barred from running for us so she leaves and trashes the leader and party she supported until her pathetic antics caught up with her. She and Trudeau are holding a live presser at the National Press Club as I type. All very reminiscent of Stronach a decade ago.

[Hatman 🍁]

Except Eve Adams is damaged good. She might get elected as a Liberal if she runs in Mississauga though.  Does this mean Soudas is a Liberal too?

[RogueBeaver]

She's apparently running against Raitt, so this will be short-lived. Soudas has probably returned to the party of his youth. Fife suggested that was Trudeau's condition for defection.

[Hatman 🍁]

I guess she's forced to, because the Liberals have nominated everywhere else.

The riding has the potential of going Liberal (looks like it may have provincially), but it would be a steep climb for her.

[RogueBeaver]

Cabinet shuffle: Kenney to Defence, Nicholson to Foreign Affairs, Poilievre to Employment.

[Hatman 🍁]

Paikin: for those who care, i was just emailed by a well-connected, longtime conservative who says (Adams & Soudas) are no longer a couple.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yesterday's nomination winners:

LaSalle-Emard-Verdun, QC: Liberals chose David Lametti, law professor

Montcalm, QC: (see Poirot's post)

Barrie-Innisfil, ON: Green's choose Bonnie North, their 2014 provincial candidate in Barrie.

Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, ON: Green's choose teacher Marty Lancaster

Sarnia-Lambton, ON: NDP chooses former union leader/customs officer Jason McMichael

[Poirot]

I didn't post the winner in Montcalm so to complete Hatman's yesterday's nomination winners

Montcalm, QC: Bloc chose Jacques Tremblay
Terrebonne, QC: Bloc chose Michel Boudrias

[RogueBeaver]

Adams likely running against Oliver in Eglinton-Lawrence.

[King of Kensington]

Seems like  a stupid move by the Liberals if that's the case.  She's not a "star candidate" and she has no ties whatsoever to Eglinton-Lawrence.  Are there no open ridings for her to run in Peel Region? 

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, that riding just went from L+1 to toss up.

[DC Al Fine]

Seems like  a stupid move by the Liberals if that's the case.  She's not a "star candidate" and she has no ties whatsoever to Eglinton-Lawrence.  Are there no open ridings for her to run in Peel Region? 

Brampton North & South haven't selected candidates, but they each already have nomination contests under way. She could run in Dufferin-Caledon and still sort of be in Peel

[King of Kensington]

They'd be far smarter to bring back Joe Volpe than to run Eve Adams in Eglinton-Lawrence. 

Or run Bill Blair there.  Or Councillor Josh Colle.  Or Bernie Farber.  Or bring Bob Rae out of retirement and have him run against Oliver.  Or convince former Councillor (and card-carrying PC) Karen Stintz to join Team Trudeau. 

[andrew_c]

Bill Blair would easily beat Oliver in Eglinton-Lawrence.  As for Eve Adams, the Liberals should make her run in a longshot riding like Thornhill and hope she fades away because she's dead weight for the party.

[DC Al Fine]

Bill Blair would easily beat Oliver in Eglinton-Lawrence.  As for Eve Adams, the Liberals should make her run in a longshot riding like Thornhill and hope she fades away because she's dead weight for the party.

Precisely. If she ran somewhere like Thornhill the options are:
1) Great, she won.
2) Oh well, it's not like the riding was winnable anyway.

By running her in a winnable seat like Eglinton-Lawrence, the Liberals introduce option three:
3) F[inks] I can't believe she cost us that seat!!!

[King of Kensington]

I think the Liberals would want to run a Jewish candidate in Thornhill.

Peter Kent is slated to run again for the Tories.  But if he decides to call it quits, I wonder if the Tories would want to shift Joe Oliver to Thornhill.

[Smid]

I think it was a mistake for the Liberals to take her. She is damaged goods and I think a net negative. They would have been better off ignoring her.

[DL]

It's not about her. I think the Liberals held their noses for Adams in order to get Soudas and all the state secrets he will give them

[RogueBeaver]

Tom Clark reported yesterday that the Grits won't be using Soudas because they don't trust him. "No source I spoke with felt Soudas might be of much value because his information might be suspect."