Canadian federal election - 2015

[RogueBeaver]

David Akin contradicts the earlier CP report, says Volpe is mulling running himself. Oliver would certainly beat Adams, contra what he said about the Grit winner being an odds-on favourite. Flavio Volpe is not interested. Besides what Linus said, says something about Gritdom that they'd ditch a solid local for a useless, pathetic scumbag like Adams.

[DL]

Coalition is too much of a dirty word, but it might be possible if the seat count is close, just because people are so tired of Harper that they would be willing to tolerate a coalition.

Coalition is a dirty word to core Conservative voters, the other 70% of Canadians are quite OK with it...esp. As long as it it doesn't involve the BQ

[RogueBeaver]

David Smith wasn't consulted, nor were local Grits. He's publicly criticizing Trudeau - first time in public by someone so senior IIRC. Riding association president supports Mendecino. At this rate Justin has almost caught up with Martin in nomination controversies.

My favourite part: Liberal caucus only found out 15 minutes before, via teleconference. Trudeau didn't even announce it himself, rather his COS.

[MaxQue]

My favourite part: Liberal caucus only found out 15 minutes before, via teleconference. Trudeau didn't even announce it himself, rather his COS.

Stéphane Dion Justin Trudeau is not a leader, not worth the risk.

[Hatman 🍁]

Coalition is too much of a dirty word, but it might be possible if the seat count is close, just because people are so tired of Harper that they would be willing to tolerate a coalition.

Coalition is a dirty word to core Conservative voters, the other 70% of Canadians are quite OK with it...esp. As long as it it doesn't involve the BQ

70% of Canadians don't even know what a coalition is, let alone support it. I recall back when the NDP and Liberals were trying to form a coalition that polls showed most Canadians opposing it. (Granted it would have involved the BQ).

If the Tories lose the popular vote, or the seat count is close, then I can see Canadians backing a coalition between the Liberals and NDP at this point. The Conservatives would bitch and scream to no end though.

Problem with a coalition for the Liberals though is that half their supporter would rather form a coalition with the Tories than those "evil socialists". 

[Hatman 🍁]

Nomination meetings tonight:

- Incumbent Romeo Saganash to be acclaimed in Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik, QC for the NDP.
- Liberal nomination in Berthier—Maskinongé, QC. Not sure of the candidates. "Vegas" (incumbent Ruth Ellen Brosseau) has already been nominated for the NDP.
- NDP nomination in Newmarket-Aurora, ON. Yvonne Kelly will be acclaimed. She joins the Tory incumbent Lois Brown and the 2011 Liberal candidate Kyle Peterson, who is running again.
- Edmonton City Councillor Amarjeet Sohi will be acclaimed as the Liberal candidate in Edmonton Mill Woods, AB. Despite this riding containing none of his current riding, MP Tim Uppal (Edmonton-Sherwood Park) will be running here. Perhaps he's expecting this riding will be less racist than the redistributed successor riding to his.
- Speaking of Uppal's successor riding, the NDP will be acclaiming semi-retired researcher Annie McKitrick in Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan, AB. All of the other parties have already nominated their candidates. The Tories chose Garnett Genuis, who ran in Sherwood Park for the Wildrose Party in 2011. (His name is familiar, apparently he went to Carleton at the same time I did, and is my age.. and we have 14 mutual friends on Facebook...) Lawyer Rod Frank will be the Liberal candidate and the Greens are running activist Brandie Harrop.

[DL]

I think a lot of Liberal MPs and backroom boys would rather prop up Harper than make a deal with the NDP...but I think that the vast majority of those naive misguided souls who simply vote Liberal are overwhelmingly anti-Harper people most of whom have the NDP as their second choice - so I think the vast majority of Liberal VOTERS would welcome a coalition...apart from a handful who are terrified that if the NDP has some cabinet portfolios they might...cut taxes for small businesses.!

[Hatman 🍁]

Maybe, but in 2011 just as many would-be Liberal voters switched to the Tories than jumped ship to the NDP. I suppose this time a lot of Liberal voters will have had voted NDP in 2011 though.

[DL]

Maybe, but in 2011 just as many would-be Liberal voters switched to the Tories than jumped ship to the NDP. I suppose this time a lot of Liberal voters will have had voted NDP in 2011 though.

That's true but I don't buy the idea that they "strategically" voted Tory because they were terrified of the NDP under Layton. I think that Harper's campaign in 2011  simply appealed to a lot of "Paul Martin Liberal" swing voters and Ignatieff turned them off.

[Hatman 🍁]

Maybe, but in 2011 just as many would-be Liberal voters switched to the Tories than jumped ship to the NDP. I suppose this time a lot of Liberal voters will have had voted NDP in 2011 though.

That's true but I don't buy the idea that they "strategically" voted Tory because they were terrified of the NDP under Layton. I think that Harper's campaign in 2011  simply appealed to a lot of "Paul Martin Liberal" swing voters and Ignatieff turned them off.

You think there are a lot of people who had no problems with Dion, but didn't want to vote for Ignatieff. Both were very weak leaders, and there wasn't anything about Ignatieff that put him to the left of Dion.  The big difference between both elections was the rise of the NDP, and I think that was enough to scare some blue Liberals.

[DL]

I'm not sure that "scared" was the word to describe what went on. Harper ran a much better campaign in 2011 than in 2008 and attracted a lot of people...in Ontario I saw polls with the Tories well over 40% even in the early stages of the campaign when no one saw the slightest possibility of the NDP actually winning the election.

I'm not saying that NO ONE who previously voted Liberal voted CPC in 2011 out of fear of the NDP. I just don't think there are very many people who voted Liberal in 2004, 2006 and 2008 who in 2011 suddenly woke and said to themselves "Oh my good, there is a possibility that the NDP led by that scary man with a cane recovering from cancer, might form a minority government and do 'radical' things like cutting taxes on small business and forcing banks to reduce ATM fees"

I do think that the final stages of the 2011 were very chaotic what with the total collapse of the Liberals etc...and the Orange wave in Quebec that some people swung to the CPC in the end in a search for stability (sort of a 2011 version of "King or chaos")

[Oak Hills]

So why is there an aversion to coalitions in Canadian politics?

[DL]

So why is there an aversion to coalitions in Canadian politics?

There isn't - its just a Conservative party talking point.

[lilTommy]

So why is there an aversion to coalitions in Canadian politics?

...Basically no experience with them as a working government, vilification of the idea by mostly Conservatives would be the two that jump to mind.

I think the closest thing to a coalition we had federally was in 1960's when the Liberals ran minority governments with the support of the NDP... but that's not a coalition. We have some history of minority governments but rarely was there coalitions.
Ontario 85' was a coalition of sorts I think between the Liberals and NDP...

I actually can't think of any coalitions in Canada?

[King of Kensington]

1917?

[DL]

I actually can't think of any coalitions in Canada?

Actually we have more experience with coalitions in Canada than people think. Most recently in 1999 the Saskatchewan NDP lost its majority and formed a coalition with the Saskatchewan Liberals - the latter actually got three cabinet portfolios. The NDP regained its majority in the subsequent election in 2003.

There were also coalitions of Liberals and Conservatives that governed in BC and Manitoba in the 40s and 50s.

You cannot call the Pearson minority governments of the 60s a "coalition" - there was no formal agreement with the NDP (no more so than existed between Liberal minority governments and the NDP in 1972-74 and 2004-06) - but the Liberals were only a handful of seats short of a majority in the 60s and didn't have much trouble getting the votes they needed to pass legislation either from the NDP or the various fragments of Social Credit or even the PCs.

The most comparable example to what may happen federally was the 1985-87 situation in Ontario where the PCs lost their majority but were still the largest party - PC 52 seats, Ontario Liberals 48 seats and NDP 25 seats...the Liberals and NDP negotiated an "accord" and a program for government for two years (but no sharing of cabinet portfolios so it was not really a "coalition"). The PCs at the time shrieked that it was a coup d'etat and an affront to democracy - but the Liberal/NDP accord gov't was VERY popular and in the 1987 the Liberals won a huge majority, the NDP became official opposition and the PCs lost two thirds of their seats and finished third - so go figure...

[Hatman 🍁]

So why is there an aversion to coalitions in Canadian politics?

There isn't - its just a Conservative party talking point.

More like there is an aversion because of how effective the Tories were with said talking point

[RogueBeaver]

I haven't heard why a coalition is necessary as opposed to less formal arrangements.

[King of Kensington]

PET approached Broadbent about forming a coalition with the NDP in 1980 - on the grounds that in spite of the Liberal majority, he wanted a more nationally representative government (as the Liberals had only won 2 seats in the West).  This was seriously considered by the leadership but the NDP ultimately turned the offer down because of opposition of Western MPs. 

[RogueBeaver]

Bill Blair may run for the Grits in Scarborough Southwest and Davenport is being reserved for a "prominent Torontonian."

[King of Kensington]

Goodbye Dan Harris!

[EPG]

- Speaking of Uppal's successor riding, the NDP will be acclaiming semi-retired researcher Annie McKitrick in Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan, AB. All of the other parties have already nominated their candidates. The Tories chose Garnett Genuis, who ran in Sherwood Park for the Wildrose Party in 2011. (His name is familiar, apparently he went to Carleton at the same time I did, and is my age.. and we have 14 mutual friends on Facebook...)

He does have a memorable name. I am quite sure I have met a Carleton man by this name in Europe.

[lilTommy]

Goodbye Dan Harris!

That's a real shame if Blair runs against Harris; I've worked with Dan years back when we were both in ONDY, very down to earth hard working guy, he really stuck it out and ran for the party 4/5 times and built his support the hard way, the grassroots way.
Cash Is i much better shape, i'd still give him the advantage but depends on who this "prominent" person is I suspect.

[Hatman 🍁]

Goodbye Dan Harris!

He was already a goner. Got elected by a fluke in 2011.

[DL]

So i wonder what happens to the CTV anchor who was supposed to be the Liberal "star" candidate in Scarborough Southwest? Does he now get "Innesed"?