Canadian federal election - 2015

[lilTommy]

Pierre Jacob retiring for health reasons.

Jacob was very old and low profile. The NDP likely has a far better chance of holding Brome-Mississquoi with a new higher profile candidate than if he tried to run again. Its all good. Apparently one of the people running for the nomination is Yves Mondoux who is a local TV personality/columnist

Yup Yves is running again (he ran for the NDP in 08 in Sherbrooke)
http://www.journalleguide.com/Actualit%C3%A9s/Politique/2015-03-20/article-4084154/Pas-de-second-mandat-pour-Pierre-Jacob-dans-BromeMissisquoi/1

not sure if it was mentioned, Tim Reid who looks to be a lawyer is the Liberal candidate.

[DL]

In 2011 the results in Brome Mississquoi were

NDP 22,400
Libs 11,600
BQ 11,200
CPC 6,200

The Liberals have a bit more of a base there than in other rural Quebec ridings because there is still a small shrinking anglo community in that area.

A lot will depend on the overall trend - but i think the NDP has a better chance of holding on with a new candidate than with Jacob

[136or142]

I believe former M.P Denis Paradis is the liberal candidate in Brome-Missisquoi.

[MaxQue]

Pierre Jacob retiring for health reasons.

Jacob was very old and low profile. The NDP likely has a far better chance of holding Brome-Mississquoi with a new higher profile candidate than if he tried to run again. Its all good. Apparently one of the people running for the nomination is Yves Mondoux who is a local TV personality/columnist

Yup Yves is running again (he ran for the NDP in 08 in Sherbrooke)
http://www.journalleguide.com/Actualit%C3%A9s/Politique/2015-03-20/article-4084154/Pas-de-second-mandat-pour-Pierre-Jacob-dans-BromeMissisquoi/1

not sure if it was mentioned, Tim Reid who looks to be a lawyer is the Liberal candidate.

No, he lost the investiture to former MP Denis Paradis on February 15.

He is also the brother of the MNA for Brome-Missisquoi and Agriculture Minister Pierre Paradis.

[Hatman 🍁]

Tonight we have two nomination races:

In Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup, QC, the NDP will acclaim their MP Francois Lapointe. He'll be running in a re-match against former Tory MP Bernard Genereux and Liberal Marie-Josee Normand. Lapointe won the riding by NINE votes in 2011.

The Liberals are seeing a contested race in the new Vancouver Island riding of Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke (pretty much a re-configured Esquimalt-Juan-de Fuca). Luke Krayenhoff takes on David Merner. The Tories just acclaimed Shari Lukens a former councillor in Colwood as their candidate. The Greens are running photographer Frances Litman.  The incumbent is NDPer Randall Garrison who will be running for re-election.   

[136or142]

Tonight we have two nomination races:

In Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup, QC, the NDP will acclaim their MP Francois Lapointe. He'll be running in a re-match against former Tory MP Bernard Genereux and Liberal Marie-Josee Normand. Lapointe won the riding by NINE votes in 2011.

The Liberals are seeing a contested race in the new Vancouver Island riding of Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke (pretty much a re-configured Esquimalt-Juan-de Fuca). Luke Krayenhoff takes on David Merner. The Tories just acclaimed Shari Lukens a former councillor in Colwood as their candidate. The Greens are running photographer Frances Litman.  The incumbent is NDPer Randall Garrison who will be running for re-election.   

Luke Krayenhoff is a business consultant and a former police officer, David Merner is a lawyer and former President of the Canada Liberal Party in British Columbia.  He also briefly ran in the 2012 leadership race.

[RogueBeaver]

Long HuffPo on BC. Local analysts expect a largely status quo election.

Perrault has been expelled from NDP caucus following her conviction of mischief.

Very long Globe on Maritime decline.

[Frodo]

Could what happened in Israel happen in Canada (and the UK) as well? 
--------------------------------------
ANALYSIS
Ontario key to breaking Liberal-Conservative deadlock
2 federal parties in holding pattern nationally; 3-way race with NDP in British Columbia

By Éric Grenier, for CBC News
Posted: Mar 18, 2015 5:00 AM ET

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Boston Bread]

In Canada there are no further-right parties so Israel is a bad comparison.

[136or142]

David Merner defeated Luke Krayenhoff for the Liberal Party nomination for Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke.

David Merner, Lawyer and B.C Minister of Justice Dispute Resolution Office Executive Director, Former President Liberal Party of Canada in British Columbia, 2012 Federal Leadership Candidate (Dropped out before the convention), B.A (Harvard)- , M.A(Oxford)-

[DC Al Fine]

Very long Globe on Maritime decline.

Very depressing and very true.

I swear Atlantic Canada will just be Halifax, St. John's and Moncton in 50 years.

[RogueBeaver]

CROP: 30/29/18/18 NDP. 10% NDP lead among Francophones, Justin's personal numbers falling rapidly. Partially his own gaffes, partially PLQ economic policy rubbing off. So predictable.

[136or142]

The Vancouver East NDP nomination in Vancouver East scheduled for today (11 AM to 3 PM) has  been cancelled.  Apparently there are no members of the NDP in the riding.  This may not be true

[136or142]

Jenny Kwan won the nomination.

[adma]

EPP up for this year
http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/index.php

[lilTommy]

Jenny Kwan won the nomination.

Probably the best outcome for both the BCNDP and the NDP

[Hatman 🍁]

Weekend nomination news:

-Jennifer McKenzie won the NDP nomination in Fundy Royal, NB. She is a former school trustee in Ottawa, and in fact just ran for the ONDP in Ottawa Centre in last year's election. I voted for her when I lived in her district in 2010. Didn't know she was from NB or that she have moved back! She'll be running against Green Ira Wilbur (ran provincially in Albert last year), Liberal businesswoman Alaina Lockhart and Conservative incumbent Rob Moore.

- Shipper/receiver Mario Rimbao will be the NDP candidate in Mount Royal, QC. He'll be running against Cote-Saint-Luc mayor Anthony Housefather who is the Liberal candidate. (Incumbent Irwin Cotler is not running again)

- In Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, SK the NDP will be running La Loche mayor Georgina Jolibois. The Liberals are running NDP turncoat Lawrence Joseph and the Tories are running incumbent Rob Clarke.

- Businessman Trent Fraser won the Tory nomination in new riding of Regina-Lewvan, SK. The NDP are running former candidate Erin Weir in this notional NDP riding. The Liberals are running former Regina city councillor Louis Browne.

-In Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères, QC, accountant Xavier Barsalou-Duval will be the Bloc candidate.

-Chemist David Berthiaume will be the Liberal candidate in Mégantic—L'Érable, QC. He'll be running against Tory incumbent Christian Paradis.

-Former MPP Khalil Ramal will be the Liberal candidate in London-Fanshawe, ON. He'll be running against NDP incumbent Irene Mathyssen.

- Teacher Rebecca Rajcak will be the NDP candidate in Oakville North-Burlington, ON. Educator Adnan Shahbaz is running for the Greens and Oakville town councillor Max Khan is the Liberal candidate.

- Former Winnipeg school trustee Suzanne Hrynyk will be the NDP candidate in Kildonan-St. Paul, MB. She'll be running against former NDP MLA MaryAnn Mihychuk who is running for the Liberals.

- Vancouver East: already covered.

[Hatman 🍁]

Today: David Robinson will be acclaimed as the Green candidate in Sudbury. He ran for the provincial Greens in last month's provincial election. The only candidate so far is Conservative Fred Slade, who ran for them in 2011.

This of course is an open seat, as Glenn Thibeault resigned to run in the provincial by-election.

[RogueBeaver]

Hébert nukes PLC-QC from orbit, closes by saying their campaign is even more generic than Iggy's. Not that Francophones shunning Grits is new...

[136or142]

My list of potential NDP replacements for Jenny Kwan's Vancouver-Mount Pleasant provincial seat.

I'm not sure if the rule requiring a woman to run to replace an outgoing NDP MLA is still in place or, if it is, if it applies to byelections.  Like the rule or dislike it, there is no question it has achieved its goal.  The B.C NDP caucus has gone from 7 of 33 NDP MLAs being women in 2005 to 14 of 34 MLAs in 2013.

If men are allowed to run (and potential women candidates as well)
1.Raymond Louie, City Councillor.  Would likely clear the field.

2.Meena Wong, COPE Mayoral nominee in 2014.  Federal NDP nominee in Vancouver South in 2011

3.George Chow, former City Councillor 2005-2011, Provincial NDP nominee in Vancouver-Langara in 2013 and NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver-Fraserview in 2013.

4.Ellen Woodsworth, former COPE City Councillor

5.Niki Sharma, 2014 Vision Vancouver nominee for City Council.

6.Trevor Loke, Former Parks Commissioner 2008?-2014, defeated for reelection by 1,500 votes

7.Aaron Jasper, Former Parks Commissioner and Board Chair 2008?-2014

8.Sarah Blyth, Former Parks Commissioner, 2008-2011, 2015 Candidate for Federal NDP nomination in Vancouver-Quadra.

9.Ken Clement, Former School Trustee, 2008?-2014, defeated for reelection by 250 votes

10.Gwen Giesbrecht, 2015 NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver East, 2011 COPE nominee for School Board and 2014 nominee for School Board

11.Scott McLean, 2015 NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver East

[lilTommy]

My list of potential NDP replacements for Jenny Kwan's Vancouver-Mount Pleasant provincial seat.

I'm not sure if the rule requiring a woman to run to replace an outgoing NDP MLA is still in place or, if it is, if it applies to byelections.  Like the rule or dislike it, there is no question it has achieved its goal.  The B.C NDP caucus has gone from 7 of 33 NDP MLAs being women in 2005 to 14 of 34 MLAs in 2013.

If men are allowed to run (and potential women candidates as well)
1.Raymond Louie, City Councillor.  Would likely clear the field.

2.Meena Wong, COPE Mayoral nominee in 2014.  Federal NDP nominee in Vancouver South in 2011

3.George Chow, former City Councillor 2005-2011, Provincial NDP nominee in Vancouver-Langara in 2013 and NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver-Fraserview in 2013.

4.Ellen Woodsworth, former COPE City Councillor

5.Niki Sharma, 2014 Vision Vancouver nominee for City Council.

6.Trevor Loke, Former Parks Commissioner 2008?-2014, defeated for reelection by 1,500 votes

7.Aaron Jasper, Former Parks Commissioner and Board Chair 2008?-2014

8.Sarah Blyth, Former Parks Commissioner, 2008-2011, 2015 Candidate for Federal NDP nomination in Vancouver-Quadra.

9.Ken Clement, Former School Trustee, 2008?-2014, defeated for reelection by 250 votes

10.Gwen Giesbrecht, 2015 NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver East, 2011 COPE nominee for School Board and 2014 nominee for School Board

11.Scott McLean, 2015 NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver East

If I was the party, and I believe they do require by-elections to be female only contests if the MLA was a woman (I actually think it applied to male MLAs who were retiring as well no?), any rate, If i were the BCNDP i'd prefer a woman from the Chinese or Asian community; meaning Meena Wong or Niki Sharma jump to the top.
Is Wong thinking of running in Vancouver South again? she has gained much more notoriety since running for mayor, that would definitely help with some personal vote, but Van S is more Liberal/Tory of a battle even in 2011 (although it was competitive for all three). She would have a guaranteed (as close as you can to anyway) ticket to the Legislature if she were to run and win the nomination in Van-MP

[Hatman 🍁]

Businessman Jean-Roger Vigneau won the Liberal nomination in Charlevoix-Montmorency ... err, I mean Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d’Orléans—Charlevoix, QC. He'll be running against the NDP incumbent Jonathan Tremblay and former Tory MP Sylvie Boucher.

Ali Naqvi, the brother of the Ontario Liberal President (and my former MPP) Yasir Naqvi was acclaimed as the NDP candidate in Mississauga East-Cooksville, ON. He has run provincially for the NDP before. Man, family gatherings for them must be awkward. Former MPP Peter Fonseca is the Liberal candidate and the Tories are running their incumbent Wladyslaw Lizon.  

[Hatman 🍁]

Tonight:

There is a crowded field seeking the NDP nomination in the new riding of La Prairie, QC. 5 candidates are in the running. The winner will take on realtor Yves Perras of the Conservatives and St-Philippe municipal councillor Jean-Claude Poissant of the Liberals.

In Oshawa, 2008 candidate Mike Shields takes on Mary Fowler for the NDP nomination. The winner will have to take on Tory incumbent Colin Carrie.

[136or142]

"If I was the party, and I believe they do require by-elections to be female only contests if the MLA was a woman (I actually think it applied to male MLAs who were retiring as well no?), any rate, If i were the BCNDP i'd prefer a woman from the Chinese or Asian community; meaning Meena Wong or Niki Sharma jump to the top.
Is Wong thinking of running in Vancouver South again? she has gained much more notoriety since running for mayor, that would definitely help with some personal vote, but Van S is more Liberal/Tory of a battle even in 2011 (although it was competitive for all three). She would have a guaranteed (as close as you can to anyway) ticket to the Legislature if she were to run and win the nomination in Van-MP"

Meena Wong finished a distant third in Vancouver South in 2011 with around 23% of the vote.

She would be a decent candidate for the provincial NDP but there would undoubtedly be some friction with her having run for COPE in the 2014 municipal election against the NDP favored Vision Vancouver.

[lilTommy]

"If I was the party, and I believe they do require by-elections to be female only contests if the MLA was a woman (I actually think it applied to male MLAs who were retiring as well no?), any rate, If i were the BCNDP i'd prefer a woman from the Chinese or Asian community; meaning Meena Wong or Niki Sharma jump to the top.
Is Wong thinking of running in Vancouver South again? she has gained much more notoriety since running for mayor, that would definitely help with some personal vote, but Van S is more Liberal/Tory of a battle even in 2011 (although it was competitive for all three). She would have a guaranteed (as close as you can to anyway) ticket to the Legislature if she were to run and win the nomination in Van-MP"

Meena Wong finished a distant third in Vancouver South in 2011 with around 23% of the vote.

She would be a decent candidate for the provincial NDP but there would undoubtedly be some friction with her having run for COPE in the 2014 municipal election against the NDP favored Vision Vancouver.

Well I did say the Riding is more Liberal/Tory, but 23% in that kind of riding where the NDP candidate at that time was not as high profile as her opponents or as she is now, wasn't too bad.

Is there really that much friction between Vision and COPE? COPE used to be the defacto NDP aligned group, and probably still represents the left of the party. For this riding it would it not be an advantage or at least not a huge problem.