Canadian federal election - 2015

[RogueBeaver]

Ivison on the economy's electoral implications.

Poilievre will unveil legislation to boost the childcare benefit tomorrow, effective July 20.

[DL]

Tonight:

There is a crowded field seeking the NDP nomination in the new riding of La Prairie, QC. 5 candidates are in the running. The winner will take on realtor Yves Perras of the Conservatives and St-Philippe municipal councillor Jean-Claude Poissant of the Liberals.

In Oshawa, 2008 candidate Mike Shields takes on Mary Fowler for the NDP nomination. The winner will have to take on Tory incumbent Colin Carrie.

I read that Mary Fowler won the NDP nomination in Oshawa. This is probably good for the NDP. Over and over and over again the NDP has run blow hard union local presidents like Shields and hit a 35% ceiling and lost. Provincially they finally tried something different and ran Jennifer French - a photogenic young teacher and won in a landslide. Mary Fowler looks to be very much cut from the same cloth and Jennifer French.

[Hatman 🍁]

We know the seat is winnable now, too. The new boundaries make it easier too. It's all about depressing the Liberal vote.

[adma]

We know the seat is winnable now, too. The new boundaries make it easier too. It's all about depressing the Liberal vote.

*And* the Conservative vote--a lot of which is "parked" and swingable to the NDP (or the Libs, for that matter), believe it or not.

In fact, in last year's provincial election which Jen French won, the Liberal share actually *rose* from 2011--there's a blow to conventional wisdom for you.

[Hatman 🍁]

Right now, I'd say Oshawa is actually a Liberal target, but they might abandon it if the NDP decides to target it as well.

[DC Al Fine]

Right now, I'd say Oshawa is actually a Liberal target, but they might abandon it if the NDP decides to target it as well.

Why do you think the Liberals are targeting a seat where they got 7% of the vote last time?

[lilTommy]

Right now, I'd say Oshawa is actually a Liberal target, but they might abandon it if the NDP decides to target it as well.

Why do you think the Liberals are targeting a seat where they got 7% of the vote last time?

I could see the Liberals target the other 4 Durham ridings (Ajax, Pickering-Uxebridge, Whitby and Durham) but Oshawa? I don't see it. Based on their ON14 performance, they have a very strong shot at all at least two of those (Ajax and Pickering-Uxebridge)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They only ever won Oshawa during the Cretin era Liberal sweeps of Ontario. Canada is a strange country when it comes to elections, but I think Comrade Earl has been spending too much time fussing over regional poll breakdowns

[Hatman 🍁]

I think Comrade Earl has been spending too much time fussing over regional poll breakdowns

^^^^ This.

Maybe targeting is a strong word, but Trudeaumania is lifting the Liberal boats in a lot of places, and Oshawa is no exception. But I think come election time, progressive voters in Oshawa will still vote NDP instead, even if they like Trudeau.

[Citizen Hats]

My list of potential NDP replacements for Jenny Kwan's Vancouver-Mount Pleasant provincial seat.

I'm not sure if the rule requiring a woman to run to replace an outgoing NDP MLA is still in place or, if it is, if it applies to byelections.  Like the rule or dislike it, there is no question it has achieved its goal.  The B.C NDP caucus has gone from 7 of 33 NDP MLAs being women in 2005 to 14 of 34 MLAs in 2013.

If men are allowed to run (and potential women candidates as well)
1.Raymond Louie, City Councillor.  Would likely clear the field.

2.Meena Wong, COPE Mayoral nominee in 2014.  Federal NDP nominee in Vancouver South in 2011

3.George Chow, former City Councillor 2005-2011, Provincial NDP nominee in Vancouver-Langara in 2013 and NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver-Fraserview in 2013.

4.Ellen Woodsworth, former COPE City Councillor

5.Niki Sharma, 2014 Vision Vancouver nominee for City Council.

6.Trevor Loke, Former Parks Commissioner 2008?-2014, defeated for reelection by 1,500 votes

7.Aaron Jasper, Former Parks Commissioner and Board Chair 2008?-2014

8.Sarah Blyth, Former Parks Commissioner, 2008-2011, 2015 Candidate for Federal NDP nomination in Vancouver-Quadra.

9.Ken Clement, Former School Trustee, 2008?-2014, defeated for reelection by 250 votes

10.Gwen Giesbrecht, 2015 NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver East, 2011 COPE nominee for School Board and 2014 nominee for School Board

11.Scott McLean, 2015 NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver East

Sorry to jump in late, but Trevor Loke is one of ours

Of course, who knows where provincial politics leads

[© tweed]

see me as an ignorant newbie asking this question: why have NDP and the Liberals 'switched places' once again in the opinion polls?

[RogueBeaver]

They haven't. NDP has been 3rd for over 2 years now.

[© tweed]

They haven't. NDP has been 3rd for over 2 years now.

I know, but that wasn't the case in 2011, obviously.  I'm asking, why did that shift occur?  Justin Trudeau's flowing hair and good looks, or something deeper?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, nothing more than that. It's Canada remember

[Hatman 🍁]

Tonight: 2011 candidate Dave Nickle will be acclaimed for the NDP in Peterborough-Kawartha, ON. He's the first candidate nominated in this vacant seat.

The NDP will chose among 4 candidates in Windsor-Tecumseh to replace the retiring Joe Comartin.

[136or142]

Likely good news for the NDP in Nanaimo-Ladysmith.  The Liberal nominee will be Tim Tessier, a presumably previously unknown realtor.

[adma]

Maybe targeting is a strong word, but Trudeaumania is lifting the Liberal boats in a lot of places, and Oshawa is no exception. But I think come election time, progressive voters in Oshawa will still vote NDP instead, even if they like Trudeau.

In that case, the Liberals might as well be targeting *everything* in Ontario, i.e. gunning (or at least providing) for another Chretien-style clean sweep...

[Foucaulf]

I know, but that wasn't the case in 2011, obviously.  I'm asking, why did that shift occur?  Justin Trudeau's flowing hair and good looks, or something deeper?

I'll echo what Al said, but it's important to remember that the Liberals and the NDP have also followed two distinct strategies. The NDP under Mulcair has played a very "parliamentary" game, giving spiels during Question Period and trying to deliver attacks to Harper policies that stick. Some of you may remember when Mulcair, back in 2012, made Dutch disease a thing (though a country with as wide domestic markets as Canada's makes the case unlikely)

Trudeau's Liberals have been very extra-parliamentary. Trudeau is a media figure, and he makes his policy announcements in the limelight. That, and I'm also one of those weirdoes who think him kicking Patrick Brazeau's ass was 2012's most important federal political event.

Trudeau's policy announcements have stuck with Canadian pundits more, while Mulcair's question period agenda was neutralized by the realization that Canadians don't like question period much, period. Tactics during the campaign itself should be a different beast, unless the American perpetual campaign really has stormed our shores.

[Hatman 🍁]

Former Tecumseh Deputy Mayor Cheryl Hardcastle won the NDP nomination in Windsor-Tecumseh.

Tonight: Presbyterian Minister and 2014 provincial candidate Alexander Wilson will be acclaimed as the NDP's candidate in Scarborough Centre.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberal candidate in Oakville North-Burlington, Max Khan has passed away.

[Lotuslander]

My list of potential NDP replacements for Jenny Kwan's Vancouver-Mount Pleasant provincial seat.

I'm not sure if the rule requiring a woman to run to replace an outgoing NDP MLA is still in place or, if it is, if it applies to byelections.  Like the rule or dislike it, there is no question it has achieved its goal.  The B.C NDP caucus has gone from 7 of 33 NDP MLAs being women in 2005 to 14 of 34 MLAs in 2013.

If men are allowed to run (and potential women candidates as well)
1.Raymond Louie, City Councillor.  Would likely clear the field.

2.Meena Wong, COPE Mayoral nominee in 2014.  Federal NDP nominee in Vancouver South in 2011

3.George Chow, former City Councillor 2005-2011, Provincial NDP nominee in Vancouver-Langara in 2013 and NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver-Fraserview in 2013.

4.Ellen Woodsworth, former COPE City Councillor

5.Niki Sharma, 2014 Vision Vancouver nominee for City Council.

6.Trevor Loke, Former Parks Commissioner 2008?-2014, defeated for reelection by 1,500 votes

7.Aaron Jasper, Former Parks Commissioner and Board Chair 2008?-2014

8.Sarah Blyth, Former Parks Commissioner, 2008-2011, 2015 Candidate for Federal NDP nomination in Vancouver-Quadra.

9.Ken Clement, Former School Trustee, 2008?-2014, defeated for reelection by 250 votes

10.Gwen Giesbrecht, 2015 NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver East, 2011 COPE nominee for School Board and 2014 nominee for School Board

11.Scott McLean, 2015 NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver East

My money is on Sharon Gregson, which you omitted. Gregson was going to run in the fed V-East NDP nomination contest until Elmore stepped in.

[136or142]

My list of potential NDP replacements for Jenny Kwan's Vancouver-Mount Pleasant provincial seat.

I'm not sure if the rule requiring a woman to run to replace an outgoing NDP MLA is still in place or, if it is, if it applies to byelections.  Like the rule or dislike it, there is no question it has achieved its goal.  The B.C NDP caucus has gone from 7 of 33 NDP MLAs being women in 2005 to 14 of 34 MLAs in 2013.

If men are allowed to run (and potential women candidates as well)
1.Raymond Louie, City Councillor.  Would likely clear the field.

2.Meena Wong, COPE Mayoral nominee in 2014.  Federal NDP nominee in Vancouver South in 2011

3.George Chow, former City Councillor 2005-2011, Provincial NDP nominee in Vancouver-Langara in 2013 and NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver-Fraserview in 2013.

4.Ellen Woodsworth, former COPE City Councillor

5.Niki Sharma, 2014 Vision Vancouver nominee for City Council.

6.Trevor Loke, Former Parks Commissioner 2008?-2014, defeated for reelection by 1,500 votes

7.Aaron Jasper, Former Parks Commissioner and Board Chair 2008?-2014

8.Sarah Blyth, Former Parks Commissioner, 2008-2011, 2015 Candidate for Federal NDP nomination in Vancouver-Quadra.

9.Ken Clement, Former School Trustee, 2008?-2014, defeated for reelection by 250 votes

10.Gwen Giesbrecht, 2015 NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver East, 2011 COPE nominee for School Board and 2014 nominee for School Board

11.Scott McLean, 2015 NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver East

My money is on Sharon Gregson, which you omitted. Gregson was going to run in the fed V-East NDP nomination contest until Elmore stepped in.

Good add, thanks I forgot her. 

My money though is either on Ellen Woodsworth, who was also interesting in running in Vancouver East until Jenny Kwan stepped in or Meena Wong.

[King of Kensington]

The Liberal candidate in Oakville North-Burlington, Max Khan has passed away.

Sad news.  A friend of mine was the NDP candidate in Oakville and though Max Khan was a very good man.

[toaster]

The Liberal candidate in Oakville North-Burlington, Max Khan has passed away.

Will Eve Adams try here instead, then?  I believe this is her home riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

I doubt it. Bad optics, anyway.