Canadian federal election - 2015

[libertpaulian]

Speaking as an American, what are the chances of making Harper ex-PM now that the whole C-51 debacle has blown up in Trudeau's face?

[DC Al Fine]

Still decent. I'd call the election a toss up right now.

[RogueBeaver]

Debates: Parties mulling non-consortium debates, Tories in particular want some.

[Hatman 🍁]

This is hilarious: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/chris-lloyd-papineau-conservative-candidate-resigns-1.3070760

[Frodo]

Could what happened in Israel happen in Canada (and the UK) as well?  
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ANALYSIS
Ontario key to breaking Liberal-Conservative deadlock
2 federal parties in holding pattern nationally; 3-way race with NDP in British Columbia

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Given the recent election outcome in the UK, would anyone like to reconsider their answers to this question?  Could the polls be as wrong in Canada as they were in the UK?

[adma]

Though to be fair, Ed Miliband's woefulness is more akin to Joe Clark than to either Trudeau or Mulcair.

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks to linking to a 2 month old Grenier article

It's obvious from the Ontario Forum poll that the NDP is going to see a huge boost in the polls, thanks to their success in the Alberta election. At least for the short term.

[RogueBeaver]

Unfinished EKOS poll has NDP leading 3-way race.

[136or142]

Lawyer Edward Wong won the Liberal Party nomination in Vancouver East over Joanne Griffiths, the former wife of former Vancouver Canucks owner Arthur Griffiths.

[Boston Bread]

Unfinished EKOS poll has NDP leading 3-way race.

Woah.

Bring on the orange crush!

[Lief 🗽]

Really ups the pressure on Notley and the Alberta NDP now to not f[inks] up the next couple of months.

[Hatman 🍁]

Told you. But then again, I have been aware of these numbers for the last few days

[lilTommy]

Told you. But then again, I have been aware of these numbers for the last few days

WOW, i'm impressed... but does this poll include the period where the Liberals announced their tax plans?
Its a mix of NDP riding the Alberta wave, a C51 backlash against the CPC/LPC... relatively broad good news coverage of the NDP (possibly some provincial influence from Ontario where we've seen some very strong numbers from the NDP as well)

[Hatman 🍁]

Field dates for our weekly poll are usually Wed to Tuesday. This poll might include last night as well, though.

[Boston Bread]

Per twitter, today's forum poll will have NDP @ 30%.

Trudeau must be getting worried. If the NDP surpasses the Liberals, they will likely stay there.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The Liberals will finish third again

[Lief 🗽]

I hate the Liberals as much as the next guy, but Liberals finishing in third probably means another Conservative majority government.

Here's the full EKOS poll btw: Con 30, NDP 29, Lib 27

[Krago]

A better example than U2 is Nickelback.  EVERYBODY hates them, but they've sold 50 million albums.

[Boston Bread]

The Quebec numbers are what's striking. The results for all 4 parties in Quebec are in 2011 territory. Which means 50+ seats for the NDP there. The NDP vote is actually more efficient than the Liberal vote overall, so I think a tight NDP-Con race is slightly worse for Harper than a tight Lib-Con race.

BC and Ontario will decide if a CON majority is possible. If Conservatives get <40% in either it's not possible.

[Krago]

I hate the Liberals as much as the next guy, but Liberals finishing in third probably means another Conservative majority government.

Here's the full EKOS poll btw: Con 30, NDP 29, Lib 27

Link?  

Found it.  Click on this link first to get around the paywall.
http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/author/fgraves/

[lilTommy]

The Quebec numbers are what's striking. The results for all 4 parties in Quebec are in 2011 territory. Which means 50+ seats for the NDP there. The NDP vote is actually more efficient than the Liberal vote overall, so I think a tight NDP-Con race is slightly worse for Harper than a tight Lib-Con race.

BC and Ontario will decide if a CON majority is possible. If Conservatives get <40% in either it's not possible.

Recent Polling in BC has the NDP in the lead 35% vs 29% for the CPC (from what I recall, came out a day or so ago)

[Lief 🗽]

A hilarious 32-61 approval rating for Harper. If only Canada used IRV...

[Boston Bread]

A hilarious 32-61 approval rating for Harper. If only Canada used IRV...

That's one of the biggest difference between the Canada and UK elections (the others being no further-right party & no separatist insurgence). The centre-left leaders are far more popular than Harper among moderates. Whereas Cameron's approval ratings were well above Ed's.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Well I'm pleasantly surprised.

I hate the Liberals as much as the next guy, but Liberals finishing in third probably means another Conservative majority government.

Not necessarily. If the Liberals end up in the teens again and the Conservatives somehow capture just shy of 40% of the vote, then sure. But I don't think either of those things are likely to happen again. Trudeau isn't a great leader, but he's still more popular at the end of the day than the Liberal leaders have been for a decade and there's been more than enough built-up backlash over the course of the many Conservative governments that I doubt Stephen Harper can pull that number again. The Conservatives haven't been near 40% since the end of 2011 and have just been hovering around the low thirties for a really long time.

Of course Canada is wildly unpredictable and the election is months away, so all of this is nearly meaningless, but still. The Cons got a majority because of two factors, not just the Liberal collapse to sub-19%; they also got 40% of the vote. At least one of those things isn't likely to happen again, probably both. And scaremongering about the inexperienced, unexpected NDP isn't likely to work as well the second time around after a full term of opposition and the ability for the NDP to claim they represent everyone from Alberta to Quebec.

I have my doubt about the ability for the NDP to form a government on their own, of course, and I'm an endless pessimist, but I feel pretty safe in feeling like another Conservative majority is pretty unlikely. But again. Canada.

[MaxQue]

Thanks Rachel Notley?