Canadian federal election - 2015

[136or142]

The Quebec numbers are what's striking. The results for all 4 parties in Quebec are in 2011 territory. Which means 50+ seats for the NDP there. The NDP vote is actually more efficient than the Liberal vote overall, so I think a tight NDP-Con race is slightly worse for Harper than a tight Lib-Con race.

BC and Ontario will decide if a CON majority is possible. If Conservatives get <40% in either it's not possible.

Recent Polling in BC has the NDP in the lead 35% vs 29% for the CPC (from what I recall, came out a day or so ago)

That is an Insight's West Poll. (Or Insight West)

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I could live with a Prime Minister Mulcair moderated by the realities of minority government. Don't know how possible or probable that scenario would be, but it would certainly be preferable to PM Justin.

[Hatman 🍁]

Numbers on our site: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/05/federal-race-transforms-into-three-way-tie/

[Boston Bread]

Thanks Rachel Notley?

Thank Justin and his backstab on C-51. I've been an NDP hack ever since. And similarly, the Waterloo NDP candidate Diane Freeman soon-to-be-proclaimed is a recent Lib->NDP convert from city council.

[DC Al Fine]

It will be interesting to see how the NDP gains hold up since we are so close to an election. Everyone will be forgetting about politics soon. When people start thinking about it again, it will be almost campaign time. If the NDP can make their surge last for the summer, they're golden.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I hate the Liberals as much as the next guy, but Liberals finishing in third probably means another Conservative majority government.

Thing is, if the Liberals won the election and Trudeau became Prime Minister, then another Conservative majority government is exactly what you would end up with as soon said Trudeau government collapses amid inevitable hilarious incompetence.

[lilTommy]

Thanks Rachel Notley?

Thank Justin and his backstab on C-51. I've been an NDP hack ever since. And similarly, the Waterloo NDP candidate Diane Freeman soon-to-be-proclaimed is a recent Lib->NDP convert from city council.

Add to that the Liberal>NDP mayor of Perth Ontario running for the NDP in that riding (Lanak-Frontenac-Kingston I think)

[DL]

Forum poll is out - another stunner toi go with Ekos: CPC 31%, LPC 31%, NDP 30%...and the NDP with a big lead in bth Quebec and BC - these numbers would make the NDP the second largest party with 117 seats!

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/288/all-three-federal-parties-tied/

[King of Kensington]

What's the likelihood of Saskatchewan eclipsing Alberta as the province with the highest Conservative popular vote share?

[Boston Bread]

What's the likelihood of Saskatchewan eclipsing Alberta as the province with the highest Conservative popular vote share?

That's yet to happen in any poll, though. And if we were going to see it happen it would be now, but the Conservatives are still at the high 40's in AB and low 40's in SK.

Personally, I don't think it will happen. The effect of the ABNDP majority will to cause Liberals, not so Conservatives, to swing NDP. So the conservative vote will largely be unchanged.

[136or142]

What's the likelihood of Saskatchewan eclipsing Alberta as the province with the highest Conservative popular vote share?

That's yet to happen in any poll, though. And if we were going to see it happen it would be now, but the Conservatives are still at the high 40's in AB and low 40's in SK.

Personally, I don't think it will happen. The effect of the ABNDP majority will to cause Liberals, not so Conservatives, to swing NDP. So the conservative vote will largely be unchanged.

Saskatchewan probably is the most philosophically conservative part of Canada now, except for maybe New Brunswick (the English speaking areas of New Brunswick anyway).  Saskatchewan was always socially conservative leaning, but now they tend to be economically conservative as well.  In regards to social conservatism, it was an NDP cabinet minister, Harry Van Mulligan, who tried in the early 1990s to make it illegal for  people to wear spandex in parks.

[adma]

Though in Saskatchewan's case as in Alberta's, impressions might be skewed by a genuinely popular leader-figure (Brad Wall, as opposed to Rachel Notley).

Even with Alberta, I wouldn't foresee a "largely unchanged" federal Con vote.  What it might mean is that the Cons'll win with 50% or 60% in seats where they've been previously winning with 70% or 80%; and that lost share *won't* be with a right-wing splinter party...

[morgieb]

Am I correct in saying that Saskatchewan = the South?

[DC Al Fine]

Am I correct in saying that Saskatchewan = the South?

No. They're more prairie populist. Saskatchewan = North Dakota maybe.

[King of Kensington]

That's yet to happen in any poll, though. And if we were going to see it happen it would be now, but the Conservatives are still at the high 40's in AB and low 40's in SK.

Isn't Ekos the only pollster that separates Saskatchewan and Manitoba in their public releases?

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I'm pretty sure the Conservative vote will drop off in a lot of Calgary and Edmonton ridings.  It's not just the provincial election - I think they're trending away from voting as "Albertans" and more like urban voters elsewhere.

[adma]

Am I correct in saying that Saskatchewan = the South?

No. They're more prairie populist. Saskatchewan = North Dakota maybe.

Complete with N Dakota's tendency to return Dem senators/congressmen here and again.

[warandwar]

Am I correct in saying that Saskatchewan = the South?

No. They're more prairie populist. Saskatchewan = North Dakota maybe.

Complete with N Dakota's tendency to return Dem senators/congressmen here and again.

North Dakota and Sask. both had their countries first elected socialist governments, as well.

[DL]

As recently as 2006 the NDP was in power in Saskatchewan and its not at all inconceivable that they could come back to power in the eventual 'post-Wall era". The main difference between Saskatchewan and Alberta is that Regina and Saskatoon are much smaller cities than Calgary and Edmonton and that Saskatchewan has much more wheat farming while Alberta is more cattle ranching and also the oil and gas sector is bigger in Alberta.

In a good year the Saskatchewan NDP tends to sweep Regina and Saskatoon and win the smaller cities of Moose Jaw and Prince Albert and the heavily FN northern ridings in much the same way as the Alberta NDP swept Edmonton, Lethbridge, Red Deer and Medicine Hat and took the most seats in Calgary and won several northern ridings.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, the difference is CGY + EDM = 2/3 of Alberta' pop. In Sask Regina+Saskatoon = 1/2 of the Sask's population. Saskatchewan is much more rural/small town.

[136or142]

Yes, the difference is CGY + EDM = 2/3 of Alberta' pop. In Sask Regina+Saskatoon = 1/2 of the Sask's population. Saskatchewan is much more rural/small town.

According to Wiki, Greater Calgary and Greater Edmonton combine for 47 of Alberta's 87 ridings.

[Hatman 🍁]

Who said I was using Wikipedia? CGY + EDM CMAs are almost exactly 2/3 of Alberta's population.

[Boston Bread]

Yes, the difference is CGY + EDM = 2/3 of Alberta' pop. In Sask Regina+Saskatoon = 1/2 of the Sask's population. Saskatchewan is much more rural/small town.

According to Wiki, Greater Calgary and Greater Edmonton combine for 47 of Alberta's 87 ridings.

Some AB rural ridings have half the population of some urban ridings. Also Wiki's definitions include the entire metro area including exurbs like Spruce Grove, so that make the two cities more like 54 or so ridings.

[minionofmidas]

As recently as 2006 the NDP was in power in Saskatchewan and its not at all inconceivable that they could come back to power in the eventual 'post-Wall era". The main difference between Saskatchewan and Alberta is that Regina and Saskatoon are much smaller cities than Calgary and Edmonton and that Saskatchewan has much more wheat farming while Alberta is more cattle ranching and also the oil and gas sector is bigger in Alberta.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkhcjI5Pwi0

[King of Kensington]

In terms of vulnerable Conservative seats, there are probably 6 in Alberta - 3 in Calgary (CC, Confederation and Skyview) and 3 in Edmonton (Edmonton Centre, Griesbach and Manning).  

In Saskatchewan, Saskatoon West and Regina-Lewvan would have gone NDP last time. DMCR was quite close last time - but this time the NDP candidate Lawrence Joseph is running for the Liberals. The 2 other Saskatoon seats (which seem to have near-identical voting patterns) could also be lost to the NDP.

[Boston Bread]

Don't forget Lethbridge - the NDP performed decently last time and NDP got close to 50% at the provincial level. Same goes for that Northern SK riding - name slips by me. I realized that's what you meant by DMCR, sorry.
I like seeing rural NDP ridings for the purpose of having large orange land areas. Urban ridings are more important electorally but they don't look as imposing on the map.