Canadian federal election - 2015
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #825 on: May 19, 2015, 03:01:14 PM »

Can someone clarify where parties stand on the major issues? I take it the Liberals are also the more centrist of the parties similar to the Liberal Democrats in the U.K?
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #826 on: May 19, 2015, 03:11:42 PM »

Yes, they're the centrist party.  NDP partisans tend to see the Liberals as right-wing and "exactly the same" as the Tories, while Conservative partisans see the Liberals as a left-wing, tax and spend party and pretty much indistinguishable from the NDP.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #827 on: May 19, 2015, 03:19:07 PM »

The main difference between Saskatchewan and Alberta is that Regina and Saskatoon are much smaller cities than Calgary and Edmonton and that Saskatchewan has much more wheat farming while Alberta is more cattle ranching and also the oil and gas sector is bigger in Alberta.

Wheat farming areas used to a bastion of "agrarian socialism" but today the political difference between them and the cattle ranchers is that they "only" vote 70% Conservative instead of 80%.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #828 on: May 19, 2015, 03:37:49 PM »

I wouldn't say the contemary Liberals are equidistant from the Dippers and Tories though, they seem to be closer to the lefties than the Conservatives who have largely jettisoned their Reds.

Basically the Liberal party doesn't really stand for anything at all beyond Canadian nationalism ('federalism') and so can quite easily flop everywhere around the spectrum. I wouldn't even argue they are close to Lib Dems - although ironically you could compare the party (especially its regional variants in Quebec etc) to the Japanese party of the same name.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #829 on: May 19, 2015, 03:47:56 PM »

Either Prime Minister Mackenzie King or Louis St. Laurent (it has been attributed to both) famously characterized the NDP's predecessor, the CCF, as "Liberals in a hurry."
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #830 on: May 19, 2015, 04:58:32 PM »

I know a Harper hating social conservative/neocon who is voting Liberal and a Mulcair hating socialist voting Liberal as well. It's truly a large tent.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #831 on: May 19, 2015, 05:34:29 PM »

The Liberals to me seem to be left of centre. Although if there ever was a NPD-Liberal merger a significant number of blue Liberals would bolt the party for the Conservatives.

They seem to be economically moderate and socially progressive.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #832 on: May 19, 2015, 06:14:23 PM »

They're pretty much like mainstream Democrats in the US. 
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adma
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« Reply #833 on: May 19, 2015, 06:37:51 PM »

As recently as 2006 the NDP was in power in Saskatchewan and its not at all inconceivable that they could come back to power in the eventual 'post-Wall era". The main difference between Saskatchewan and Alberta is that Regina and Saskatoon are much smaller cities than Calgary and Edmonton and that Saskatchewan has much more wheat farming while Alberta is more cattle ranching and also the oil and gas sector is bigger in Alberta.

In a good year the Saskatchewan NDP tends to sweep Regina and Saskatoon and win the smaller cities of Moose Jaw and Prince Albert and the heavily FN northern ridings in much the same way as the Alberta NDP swept Edmonton, Lethbridge, Red Deer and Medicine Hat and took the most seats in Calgary and won several northern ridings.

Though the urban-rural political divide in Sask has become much more marked in recent years; up to a generation or so ago, the "agrarian socialist" tradition still had clout.

Above all,  what *really* explains the NDP strength in Sask is that Tommy Douglas got his political foot in the door early and set the tradition going.  Whereas in Alberta, "prairie populism" headed down the Social Credit path instead.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #834 on: May 19, 2015, 07:05:23 PM »

I wouldn't say the contemary Liberals are equidistant from the Dippers and Tories though, they seem to be closer to the lefties than the Conservatives who have largely jettisoned their Reds.

And therein lies the problem for Red Tories voting in federal elections. The Conservative Party continues to shoot itself in the foot in the eyes of these voters. The party's MPs and leadership have spat in the face of democracy on multiple occasions, discourage dissent and critical thinking among its ranks, turn a blind eye to facts, and have gone pretty far right in a number of areas ("fair" elections, union financial disclosure, income splitting, etc.).

The problem is, the Liberal Party of late doesn't seem to realize the potential it has to attract these centrist/right-of-centre votes. I have seen very little genuine interest from Trudeau to attract disaffected Tories. It's all about pushing to the left, crowding out the NDP, and winning the progressive vote. When Trudeau realized it wasn't working, his boldfaced political calculation with C-51 looked like overly-transparent pandering (newsflash: It was!).

So while the CPC is doing everything it can to send Red Tories away, I really don't think there's a home for them anywhere else. The Liberals don't want them... and even if they did, why would a Red Tory who arguably values strong, pragmatic leadership feel comfortable abandoning the competent evil they know in Stephen Harper for the incompetent evil they see in Justin? The NDP isn't an option for these folks either.

So as a Red Tory myself, even though I desperately wish I could vote for a competent centrist government, I can't vote for the Liberal Party. The Conservatives, who've at least done a decent job holding down the country's economic fort, just sort of win by default. And I hate that.

Anyway, I'm ranting.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #835 on: May 19, 2015, 07:15:18 PM »

If the NDP keeps its momentum, Trudeau pushing right would be the best thing to have ever happened to the... NDP.
If you try to look at the Liberal perspective, it's a hard balance when it comes to stuff like taxes. But C-51 was an unmistakably poor move.
Hagrid, don't forget the Libs should at least be trying to win voters like me over. I feel as equally betrayed as you are.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #836 on: May 19, 2015, 07:22:36 PM »

Most Red Tories are Liberals now anyways. Pretty sure Joe Clark isn't voting Conservative anymore.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #837 on: May 19, 2015, 08:07:39 PM »

If the NDP keeps its momentum, Trudeau pushing right would be the best thing to have ever happened to the... NDP.
If you try to look at the Liberal perspective, it's a hard balance when it comes to stuff like taxes. But C-51 was an unmistakably poor move.
Hagrid, don't forget the Libs should at least be trying to win voters like me over. I feel as equally betrayed as you are.

C-51 was a major blunder for Trudeau.  Mulcair is looking better and better and his opposition to C-51 is his finest moment.  The childcare plan is a good one too. 

Trudeau's tax plan is just weird.  I agree with the call for a 33% tax bracket on $200K+ incomes (the "1%") - and I'm sure that idea is very popular in the NDP universe.  But then that "middle class" tax cut is nonsensical. 

Mulcair foolishly boxed himself in when he stated that marginal tax rates above 50% were confiscatory - and that's just when the tide was starting to shift in terms of public opinion.  But he's changed his mind before - for instance, he was adamantly against a coalition with the Liberals when he ran for leader, but now he's for it.  Nobody seems upset about his "backtracking", and most people in the NDP universe agree with some sort of cooperation to block Harper.

My feeling is that Trudeau is getting all sorts of different advice, and he's not very good at filtering out good advice from bad advice.
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DL
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« Reply #838 on: May 20, 2015, 01:26:26 PM »

Not too long ago the Liberals were telling the press that they had some "star candidate/great Torontonian" lined up to run for them in Davenport. Now I see the Liberal nomination meeting for davenport is set for this Sunday and the three people running are not anyone i would call a "star" or a "great Torontonian". In fact I have never heard of any of these people. i guess the Liberals have realized they have no hope in Davenport

   DZEROWICZ, Julie       
    EUSTAQUIO, Joe       
    HANDA, Vik
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #839 on: May 20, 2015, 01:51:07 PM »

Only one with a Portuguese name, too.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #840 on: May 20, 2015, 05:52:03 PM »

G&M economic debate in Calgary accepted by Harper and Mulcair.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #841 on: May 20, 2015, 10:44:50 PM »

Harper has secured an endorsement from...
Jeb Bush
http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2015/05/20/jeb-bush-says-he-wants-stephen-harper-re-elected.html
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jfern
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« Reply #842 on: May 20, 2015, 10:48:14 PM »


Seeing as Canadians backed Obama 72-10 over Romney, wouldn't Canadian politicians rather keep endorsements from Republicans private?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #843 on: May 21, 2015, 09:52:52 AM »

Harper accepts FP debate from Munk School. Grit hissy fit continues, but they'll come around. Mulcair won't accept a debate without Harper.
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DL
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« Reply #844 on: May 21, 2015, 10:29:22 AM »

Riding polls in four swing ridings in BC all show NDP leads

https://dogwoodinitiative.org/media-centre/files/polling-results-summary

Insights West interviewed 300 voting-age adults by telephone in each of four different federal ridings. Those who said they were likely to vote were asked, “if the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of these candidates would you support?”

 
Courtenay-Alberni - NDP 33%, CPC 23%, Libs 11%, Greens 9%

Cowichan-Malahat-Langford - NDP 32%, CPC 22%, Libs 12%, Greens 8%

Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke - NDP 42%, CPC 14%, Libs 12%, Greens 13%

Burnaby-North Seymour - NDP 35%, CPC 15%, Libs 6% (??), Greens 19% (I wonder if the Green and liberals numbers here were flipped)

“The federal Liberal Party is currently not competitive in these ridings, in spite of a seemingly high proportion of residents who regard Justin Trudeau as their preferred prime minister,” said Canseco. “The New Democrats are ahead in all four constituencies, with an extremely high number of supporters in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke.”
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #845 on: May 21, 2015, 10:35:12 AM »

Aren't the Liberals supposed to be at least competitive in Burnaby-North Seymour? I think the numbers are switched there. This is bad news for Trudeau as Libs underperform what the provincial level polls suggest they should get in all 4.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #846 on: May 21, 2015, 10:41:50 AM »

Riding polls in four swing ridings in BC all show NDP leads

https://dogwoodinitiative.org/media-centre/files/polling-results-summary

Insights West interviewed 300 voting-age adults by telephone in each of four different federal ridings. Those who said they were likely to vote were asked, “if the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of these candidates would you support?”

 
Courtenay-Alberni - NDP 33%, CPC 23%, Libs 11%, Greens 9%

Cowichan-Malahat-Langford - NDP 32%, CPC 22%, Libs 12%, Greens 8%

Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke - NDP 42%, CPC 14%, Libs 12%, Greens 13%

Burnaby-North Seymour - NDP 35%, CPC 15%, Libs 6% (??), Greens 19% (I wonder if the Green and liberals numbers here were flipped)

“The federal Liberal Party is currently not competitive in these ridings, in spite of a seemingly high proportion of residents who regard Justin Trudeau as their preferred prime minister,” said Canseco. “The New Democrats are ahead in all four constituencies, with an extremely high number of supporters in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke.”

The only one that I am surprised with is Burnaby North-Seymour... with the 2011 numbers this was suppose to be much more CPC leaning. 19% for the greens in a riding with no star candidate? probably the LPC numbers but this riding is right beside North Vancouver where the former CBC meteorologist is running (her name escapes me).
The other three are all on VanIsland and the NDP, even provincially poll very strong there. But I am impressed with the 10 point lead in CA and CML and the huge lead in ESS.... Looks like the high green numbers are hurting the Liberals more then anyone
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Holmes
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« Reply #847 on: May 21, 2015, 11:35:15 AM »

Those polls are cool and all. But it's 5 months out. And they're riding polls. So who cares?
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #848 on: May 21, 2015, 11:50:45 AM »

Burnaby numbers don't make much sense. I can see the NDP with the lead, but not that large of one.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #849 on: May 21, 2015, 01:18:41 PM »


Ahem. Here I am again...
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