Canadian federal election - 2015

[RogueBeaver]

Consortium has arranged 2 debates without Harper. My guess is that he'll ignore them, like Cameron did.

[Hatman 🍁]

Riding polls...

Ahem. Here I am again...

This must mean that that English electoral event is over then, right?

[DL]

Burnaby numbers don't make much sense. I can see the NDP with the lead, but not that large of one.

The Burnaby numbers would make sense if the Green and Liberal numbers were reversed. Keep in mind that on the redistributed boundaries the NDP would have had exactly 35% in Burnaby North-Seymour in 2011 so having them at 35% now isn't so out of the realm of possibility

[Hatman 🍁]

Burnaby numbers don't make much sense. I can see the NDP with the lead, but not that large of one.

The Burnaby numbers would make sense if the Green and Liberal numbers were reversed. Keep in mind that on the redistributed boundaries the NDP would have had exactly 35% in Burnaby North-Seymour in 2011 so having them at 35% now isn't so out of the realm of possibility

I don't buy that the Tories are at 15%. But maybe they really are that toxic in the Lower Mainland.

[DL]

One thing to keep in mind in polling in BC is that its often very challenging to get Chinese-Canadians (who often skew Conservative) to respond to surveys - this is a non-issue on the three island ridings but could be more of an issue in the Burnaby seat.

[136or142]

Burnaby leans NDP though it is more competitive at the provincial and federal level.

The Green Party candidate in that riding is a science professor who got arrested at a Kinder-Morgan protest.  That said, I too would suspect that the numbers are reversed.

[DC Al Fine]

One thing to keep in mind in polling in BC is that its often very challenging to get Chinese-Canadians (who often skew Conservative) to respond to surveys - this is a non-issue on the three island ridings but could be more of an issue in the Burnaby seat.

I recall a couple articles saying roughly 60-65% of Cantonese speakers voted Tory last time? Does anyone no what the numbers for Mandarin speakers are?

[lilTommy]

Burnaby leans NDP though it is more competitive at the provincial and federal level.

The Green Party candidate in that riding is a science professor who got arrested at a Kinder-Morgan protest.  That said, I too would suspect that the numbers are reversed.

Provincially Burnaby North is the only non-NDP held riding, and I believe it is heavily Chinese-Canadian (but it was close, only 3% difference between the LIB and NDP). Even Burnaby-Lougheed was only won by the NDP by 4% (about 700 votes). I'm thinking the CPC numbers are far lower then they actually are, greens tend to poll higher before elections then come election time in many cases.

[DL]

If its true that the NDP is making big gains among Canadians with higher levels of education etc.,.. then a place like North Vancouver might be less of a dead zone for the NDP than has previously been the case and there might be some movement of people who voted Liberal when they were in the North Vancouver riding to go over to the NDP now that they are in Burnaby North-Seymour

[Linus Van Pelt]

One thing to keep in mind in polling in BC is that its often very challenging to get Chinese-Canadians (who often skew Conservative) to respond to surveys - this is a non-issue on the three island ridings but could be more of an issue in the Burnaby seat.

I recall a couple articles saying roughly 60-65% of Cantonese speakers voted Tory last time? Does anyone no what the numbers for Mandarin speakers are?

I think this thing about Cantonese speakers came from a claim Jason Kenney made about internal Conservative polling. Which doesn't make it necessarily false, but it's not really independently verified.

Anyway, these new BC ones look like junk polls.

[Smid]

Earl, your firm's polls, extrapolated by proportionate swing, would have an NDP win in Burnaby North - Seymour.

[Hatman 🍁]

Earl, your firm's polls, extrapolated by proportionate swing, would have an NDP win in Burnaby North - Seymour.

Makes sense, given the NDP lead in BC. 

[DL]

The good news for the NDP rolls on...CROP has a new poll out in Quebec that has the NDP surging 11 points in one month to 42% leaving the Liberals in the dust at 25% and even in the Quebec City area the NDP now leads the Tories 39% to 35% and among francophones the NDP has a crushing 47% to the Libs 20% and the Tories and the BQ each Ch at 15%

[Thomas D]

So should I bother looking up 'Target Seats' for this election, or would that be pointless because the Liberal collapse of 2011 skewed everything?

[Boston Bread]

Reports on twitter suggests the next EKOS poll has the NDP over 30% in BC, ON, and AB, and tied with Conservatives in Ontario.

Edit: here it is

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Say, I was looking at the map for the last election and I noticed something I thought was peculiar. The NDP won their best result ever - and yet they didn't manage to get any seats in Saskatchewan, the province where historically they have dominated? Even in that regional poll that Canadaland just posted, the NDP are level with their numbers in Atlantic Canada, a region with no real Dipper tradition. What's up with that?

[136or142]

Say, I was looking at the map for the last election and I noticed something I thought was peculiar. The NDP won their best result ever - and yet they didn't manage to get any seats in Saskatchewan, the province where historically they have dominated? Even in that regional poll that Canadaland just posted, the NDP are level with their numbers in Atlantic Canada, a region with no real Dipper tradition. What's up with that?

The NDP lost a lot nearly all their support in the rural parts of the province, including what used to be called 'Red Square', the block of rural ridings in central Saskatchewan that part of which used to be represented by Lorne Nystrom.

So, that has hurt them given that for the prior several federal elections, the ridings of Regina and Saskatoon were, unlike in every other province in Canada, combined urban/rural ridings.

Had there been strictly urban ridings, the NDP would likely have won one urban seat in Regina and one in Saskatoon.  I believe the NDP was also hurt in Northern Saskatchewan by a vote split between themselves and the Liberals that allowed the Conservative to come up the middle and narrowly defeat the NDP.

The NDP also came very close in the last election in the Prince Albert riding though they lost badly in the Moose Jaw area riding that for some reason is named "Palliser."

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Say, I was looking at the map for the last election and I noticed something I thought was peculiar. The NDP won their best result ever - and yet they didn't manage to get any seats in Saskatchewan, the province where historically they have dominated? Even in that regional poll that Canadaland just posted, the NDP are level with their numbers in Atlantic Canada, a region with no real Dipper tradition. What's up with that?

a) The boundaries of ridings (mixed urban and rural seats) in Saskatchewan worked very much to the NDP's detriment

b) A lot of the NDP's original Sask base basically no longer exists and has been replaced by demographics much more friendly to the Conservatives (and increasingly so now). Plus the popularity of the current Saskatchewan premier.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You should also be careful (very very careful) about regional breakdowns for the smaller provinces. They are often (usually?) howlingly inaccurate.

[King of Kensington]

Ekos I believe is the only firm that separates Saskatchewan and Manitoba in their releases.

[Hatman 🍁]

So should I bother looking up 'Target Seats' for this election, or would that be pointless because the Liberal collapse of 2011 skewed everything?

No point, but just for fun:

Cons (vs. NDP) targets:

1) Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup, QC (0.02%)  
2) Cowichan—Malahat—Langford, BC (0.5%)
3) Regina—Lewvan, SK (1.3%)
4) Saanich—Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca, BC (1.8%)
5) Scarborough North, ON (2.0%)
6) Louis-Saint-Laurent, QC (2.3%)
7) Scarborough Southwest, ON (3.2%)
8 ) Niagara Centre, ON (4.1%)
9) Surrey Centre, BC (4.4%)
10) Burnaby South, BC (4.4%)

NDP (vs Cons) targets:
1) Lévis—Lotbinière, QC (1.4%)
2) Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, SK (1.5%)
3) Elmwood—Transcona, MB (2.1%)
4) Sault Ste. Marie, ON (3.0%)
5) Courtenay—Alberni, BC (4.2%)
6) Scarborough Centre, ON (4.2%)
7) Vancouver Island North—Comox—Powell River, BC (4.3%)
8 ) South Okanagan—West Kootenay, BC (5.3%)
9) South Shore—St. Margarets, NS (5.9%)
10) Port Moody—Coquitlam, BC (6.0%)

Cons (vs. Lib) targets:

1) Nipissing—Timiskaming, ON (0.1%)
2) Markham—Thornhill, ON (0.7%)
3) Scarborough—Guildwood, ON (1.1%)
4) Don Valley East, ON (2.0%)
5) Sydney—Victoria, NS (2.1%)
6) Kings—Hants, NS (2.9%)
7) Scarborough—Rouge Park, ON (3.2%)
8 ) Malpeque, PEI (3.3%)
9) Vancouver Centre, BC (5.0%)
10) Lac-Saint-Louis, QC (5.7%)

Lib (vs Cons) seats:

1) Mississauga—Malton, ON (0.6%)
2) Labrador, NL (0.7%)
3) Etobicoke Centre, ON (1.3%)
4) Willowdale, ON (2.3%)
5) Don Valley West, ON (2.4%)
6) London North Centre, ON (2.8%)
7) Scarborough Centre, ON (3.0%)
8 ) Don Valley North, ON (3.0%)
9) Waterloo, ON (3.1%)
10) Avalon, NL (3.9%)

NDP (vs Lib) targets:

1) Ahuntsic-Cartierville, QC (1.2%)
2) Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount, QC (3.2%)
3) Toronto Centre, ON (3.2%)
4) Scarborough—Rouge Park, ON (3.8%)
5) Lac-Saint-Louis, QC (4.0%)
6) Vancouver Centre, BC (4.7%)
7) Bourassa, QC (6.1%)
8 ) Papineau, QC (8.1%)
9) Halifax West, NS (8.8%)
10) Scarborough—Guildwood, ON (9.1%)

Lib (vs NDP) targets:

1) Winnipeg North, MB (0.4%)
2) Surrey—Newton, BC (1.2%)
3) Dartmouth—Cole Harbour, NS (1.7%)
4) Honoré-Mercier, QC (1.7%)
5) Pierrefonds—Dollard, QC (3.7%)
6) Brossard—Saint-Lambert, QC (4.1%)
7) Scarborough Southwest, ON (5.5%)
8 ) Scarborough North, ON (6.5%)
9) Brampton East, ON (7.0%)
10) York South—Weston, ON (7.3%)

[King of Kensington]

The NDP also came very close in the last election in the Prince Albert riding though they lost badly in the Moose Jaw area riding that for some reason is named "Palliser."

The Tories won Prince Albert riding by a 2-1 margin!

[DC Al Fine]

The NDP also came very close in the last election in the Prince Albert riding though they lost badly in the Moose Jaw area riding that for some reason is named "Palliser."

The Tories won Prince Albert riding by a 2-1 margin!

I think he mixed up Palliser & Prince Albert.

[136or142]

The NDP also came very close in the last election in the Prince Albert riding though they lost badly in the Moose Jaw area riding that for some reason is named "Palliser."

The Tories won Prince Albert riding by a 2-1 margin!

I think he mixed up Palliser & Prince Albert.

My bad, sorry.

I think I got the general points correct though.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Canadian three-way split might enable Harper to be re-elected.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/22/canadian-three-way-split-harper-cameron-fall-election-liberals-new-democrats