Canadian federal election - 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh good, a British perspective.

[Holmes]

CROP poll of Quebec.



http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201505/21/01-4871568-sondage-crop-le-npd-cartonne-au-quebec.php

[Bacon King]

This is the first time I've ever actually seen what Justin Trudeau looks like. His face is so unbelievably smug I just want to punch it

[Lief 🗽]

The 2% who think Mario Beaulieu would be the best Prime Minister of Canada are my favorite.

This is the first time I've ever actually seen what Justin Trudeau looks like. His face is so unbelievably smug I just want to punch it

At least he shaved his stupid goatee:

[Boston Bread]

I've just given my model an upgrade in time for the 2015 election. The most amusing thing I noticed is that according to the model the NDP's best seat by vote % is none other than Edmonton-Strathcona

[Holmes]

I've just given my model an upgrade in time for the 2015 election. The most amusing thing I noticed is that according to the model the NDP's best seat by vote % is none other than Edmonton-Strathcona

I was going to say that doesn't seem right, but it actually does seem plausible. There might be some seats in Quebec that might be high up too.

[Simfan34]

The 2% who think Mario Beaulieu would be the best Prime Minister of Canada are my favorite.

This is the first time I've ever actually seen what Justin Trudeau looks like. His face is so unbelievably smug I just want to punch it

At least he shaved his stupid goatee:

Jesus Christ, that happened?

[MaxQue]

Well, unless Notley badly messes up, Linda Duncan is VERY safe.

[Boston Bread]

And in regards to the current weakness of the SKNDP, keep in mind that Canadian parties typically wax and wane in a region quite spectacularly. In the 1965 federal election, the NDP failed to win a single seat in SK even with Tommy Douglas as leader! He was elected from BC instead.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1965

[136or142]

And in regards to the current weakness of the SKNDP, keep in mind that Canadian parties typically wax and wane in a region quite spectacularly. In the 1965 federal election, the NDP failed to win a single seat in SK even with Tommy Douglas as leader! He was elected from BC instead.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1965

That was due to the lingering effects of the doctor's strike as well as P.C Leader Diefenbaker being from Saskatchewan (Prince Albert).

[Hatman 🍁]

There's a reason why Douglas ran in BC that year.

[DL]

The CCF lost all its Saskatchewan seats in the Diefenbaker landslide of 1958 - and Dief was a Saskatchewan "favourite son). The doctor's strike was mainly a big issue in 1962 when TC Douglas ran in Regina and the height of the backlash and lost to the PC incumbent by 10,000 votes - a few months later an NDP MP from Burnaby-Coquitlam in suburban Vancouver resigned so that Douglas could get a seat in a byelection and he won. in 1963 the NDP popular vote in Saskatchewan fell even further to an all-time low of 19% as the Medicare controversy raged and Douglas was running again in vancouver. In 1965, the NDP backlash had subsided and the NDP had lost power in Saskatchewan and NDP support recovered to 26% but it still didn't win any seats as Dief did another clear sweep.

It all changed in 1968. Diefenbaker had been ousted and replaced as PC leader by Robert Stanfield from Nova Scotia and the Ross Thatcher Saskatchewan Liberal government was getting unpopular. The NDP won 6 out of 13 Sask seats (and added a 7th in 1971 in a byelection)...Douglas lost narrowly in Burnaby-Seymour that year to a Liberal and got back into parliament a year later when the NDP member for Nanaimo-Cowichan-the Islands passed away and Douglas won the subsequent byelection. He weas MP_ for that riding until he retired in 1979. The NDP won seats in Saskatchewan in every election until 2004 and in each of the '04, '06, '08 and '11 elections while the NDP was shut out in Sask it was largely bad luck from having a couple of very near misses in each of those elections.

[politicallefty]

The NDP won seats in Saskatchewan in every election until 2004 and in each of the '04, '06, '08 and '11 elections while the NDP was shut out in Sask it was largely bad luck from having a couple of very near misses in each of those elections.

The NDP shut-out in Saskatchewan has to almost certainly be a result of the "rurban" ridings that existed throughout those elections. With the current map and 2011 results, the NDP would have won two seats in Saskatchewan (one in Regina and one in Saskatoon). I think it's reasonable to assume that the NDP would have had at least some representation in Saskatchewan prior to 2011 as well.

[136or142]

The NDP won seats in Saskatchewan in every election until 2004 and in each of the '04, '06, '08 and '11 elections while the NDP was shut out in Sask it was largely bad luck from having a couple of very near misses in each of those elections.

The NDP shut-out in Saskatchewan has to almost certainly be a result of the "rurban" ridings that existed throughout those elections. With the current map and 2011 results, the NDP would have won two seats in Saskatchewan (one in Regina and one in Saskatoon). I think it's reasonable to assume that the NDP would have had at least some representation in Saskatchewan prior to 2011 as well.

Did Scooby Doo invent the term 'rurban'?

[DL]

The NDP shut-out in Saskatchewan has to almost certainly be a result of the "rurban" ridings that existed throughout those elections.

Not quite. The "rurban" ridings existed in the 1997 and 2000 elections and the NDP managed to win several of them. In fact in 1988 and 1993 the NDP even won some purely rural ridings in Saskatchewam

[136or142]

The NDP shut-out in Saskatchewan has to almost certainly be a result of the "rurban" ridings that existed throughout those elections.

Not quite. The "rurban" ridings existed in the 1997 and 2000 elections and the NDP managed to win several of them. In fact in 1988 and 1993 the NDP even won some purely rural ridings in Saskatchewam

Those rural ridings (likely just the one riding of Yorkton in 1993) were in the area previously known as "Red Square" that I mentioned earlier.

[Hatman 🍁]

Over the last 20 years, the NDP became strictly an urban party in Saskatchewan (save the far north). The rurban seats were once the NDP's plan to pick up more seats, but it backfired and ended up hurting them.

[Boston Bread]

For reference, here's what my model says about possible Alberta targets for the opposition parties on my current PV estimates (47% Con, 31% NDP, 15% Lib, 5% Green, 2% Other). Does anything look too implausible?

Over half the ridings are safe Con so I'll only list the ones where CPC is vulnerable:

Safe NDP
Edmonton Strathcona (duh)
Edmonton Griesbach (!)

Likely NDP
Lethbridge (!)
Edmonton Centre
Edmonton Manning

Lean NDP
Edmonton Mill Woods

Tossup (NDP/CPC)
St. Albert-Edmonton (due to vote splitting between CPC and CPC-turned independent)
Edmonton Riverbend

Lean CPC (vulnerable to NDP)
Edmonton West

Likely CPC (could be vulnerable to Lib or NDP)
Calgary Forest Lawn
Calgary Signal Hill

Likely CPC (could be vulnerable to NDP only)
Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner (!)
Calgary Nose Hill

Tossup (CPC/NDP/Lib)
Calgary Confederation

Tossup (CPC/Lib)
Calgary Centre

Lean Lib
Calgary Skyview

Everything else Safe CPC

In total we have 6-9 NDP, 1-3 Lib, 23-27 CPC seats.

[Boston Bread]

The absolute ceiling I see for the federal NDP in Alberta is 16 seats to the CPC's 18, which entails winning every seat that I did not list as Safe CPC. In terms of popular vote, the NDP would have to tie the Conservatives (around 43-43-10 for CPC/NDP/LIB). As crazy as it sounds, it's a less remote possibility than Premier Notley was as of April 1.

Although if Notley really wanted to hurt Harper, she would secede from Canada to form the independent socialist republic of Alberta
Harper would no longer be a Canadian citizen and the CPC will be denied 20-some seats, already reducing them to a minority. Hell, NDP+Liberals+Bloc+Green+F&D could form a coalition immediately without Alberta's seats, without an election. What an evil plan that would be!

[adma]

Re MH-C-W: if you're projecting from 2011 figures, keep in mind that Jim Hillyer ran his infamous "invisible campaign" across a lot of that turf, which brought the Con vote artificially down...

[Boston Bread]

Re MH-C-W: if you're projecting from 2011 figures, keep in mind that Jim Hillyer ran his infamous "invisible campaign" across a lot of that turf, which brought the Con vote artificially down...

Jim Hillyer is running in MH-C-W is he not? I agree that this is the model's most outlandish target, but if he is the candidate again in MH-C-W there is no reason to inflate the conservative number there.

[MaxQue]

Re MH-C-W: if you're projecting from 2011 figures, keep in mind that Jim Hillyer ran his infamous "invisible campaign" across a lot of that turf, which brought the Con vote artificially down...

Jim Hillyer is running in MH-C-W is he not? I agree that this is the model's most outlandish target, but if he is the candidate again in MH-C-W there is no reason to inflate the conservative number there.

Yes, he is and the LaVar Payne, the incumbent retiring Medicine Hat MP refuses to endorse him, citing his poor constituency work.

[KingSweden]

Can the NDP really sustain this until October? This seems like a boost post-Alberta.

[136or142]

New British Columbia candidates

NDP
1.Rebecca Smith, Cloverdale-Langley City, Acclaimed

2.Pixie Hobby, South Surrey-White Rock, Environmental Lawyer, Justice Canada Senior Counsel, Acclaimed

3.Jeremy Leveque, Delta, University Teaching Assistant, Former PSAC Organizer, Former Moore's Clothing For Men Sales Associate, B.A and M.A-Political Science, PhD Candidate-Philosophy (Sociology), Acclaimed

Liberal
1.Don Johnston, Kootenay-Columbia, Retired CEO Columbia Basin Trust, Former CEO Canada World Youth, Acclaimed

Upcoming Liberal Nomination, May 30
South Surrey-White Rock
1.Joy Davies, Director B.C Medical Cannabis Partners, Retired Business Owner, Grand Forks City Councillor 2008-2011 (Defeated), Former Tumbler Ridge City Councillor

2.Peter Njenga, CGA and Firm Owner, Charity Founder and Director, Former Hotel and Restaurant Owner in Kenya, B.A-Accounting, CGA, MBA, PhD-Philosophy (Finance)

[adma]

Re MH-C-W: if you're projecting from 2011 figures, keep in mind that Jim Hillyer ran his infamous "invisible campaign" across a lot of that turf, which brought the Con vote artificially down...

Jim Hillyer is running in MH-C-W is he not? I agree that this is the model's most outlandish target, but if he is the candidate again in MH-C-W there is no reason to inflate the conservative number there.

Yes, he is and the LaVar Payne, the incumbent retiring Medicine Hat MP refuses to endorse him, citing his poor constituency work.

Yet something still feels "off" when we're dealing with a seat which *doesn't* include Lethbridge and *does* include Cardston.  And the NDP would have to poll at provincial Edmontonian levels in Medicine Hat to overcome *that*.

Also, even LaVar Payne tended to underpoll by Alta standards--in 2008 thanks to post-Monte Solberg schism in the ranks, and in 2011 thanks to Medicine Hat's Mayor running for the Liberals.