Canadian federal election - 2015
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Author Topic: Canadian federal election - 2015  (Read 225147 times)
lilTommy
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« Reply #1000 on: June 08, 2015, 12:35:39 PM »

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/294/conservative-minority-seen/

Forum poll
LPC - 32%
CPC - 31%
NDP - 28%

The regionals for PQ look off based on polling that has been posted here last week, their PQ numbers look to be outliers. The LPC at 34% vs the NDP 24% and CPC 23% this is striking in that these low numbers for the NDP aren't supported by previous polling which had they at almost 20 points higher (38%)? and the Liberals almost 20 points lower (17%).
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #1001 on: June 08, 2015, 12:58:19 PM »

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/federal-parties-in-dead-heat-in-poll-that-shows-57percent-of-canadians-would-support-a-coalition-government/ar-BBkP6Cr

This article on this poll says as well

The Tories are within a majority

Great news for Harper and the Conservatives
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #1002 on: June 08, 2015, 01:44:24 PM »
« Edited: June 08, 2015, 01:50:02 PM by Adam T »


Seat predictions based on poll results, especially polls of this size, are notoriously poor.  

In fact, I believe most Canadian firms gave up attempting to do it because they had previously embarrased themselves and hurt their credibility.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #1003 on: June 08, 2015, 02:35:08 PM »

lol Forum
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Holmes
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« Reply #1004 on: June 08, 2015, 03:48:12 PM »


Do you honestly believe that a party would get a majority with only a 1% lead? Or do you really believe what the media is telling you?
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #1005 on: June 08, 2015, 03:54:46 PM »

Forum's seat model is hilariously bad. A 50 seat lead while trailing by 1%, really?

This poll also polled respondents on how they voted in 2011. The results were 41% CPC, 28% Liberal, 23% NDP. lol.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #1006 on: June 08, 2015, 04:11:59 PM »

I do believe Harper will get back in.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1007 on: June 08, 2015, 04:40:59 PM »

The Winfield legacy goes on.

How's Romney's presidency doing?
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #1008 on: June 08, 2015, 04:50:20 PM »

The Winfield legacy goes on.

How's Romney's presidency doing?

No need to get snippy now. 

Just calm down and take a deep breath.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1009 on: June 09, 2015, 07:43:44 AM »

Duceppe returning as BQ leader tomorrow. French debates are gonna be even more fun.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1010 on: June 09, 2015, 08:43:43 AM »

What!? This is terrible news.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1011 on: June 09, 2015, 09:08:31 AM »

More: Duceppe had a set of conditions, NO DRAMA foremost among them. They also commissioned a poll showing Duceppe tripling their support. Duceppe has not yet chosen a seat.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #1012 on: June 09, 2015, 09:17:41 AM »

well RIP NDP hopes of a forming government Sad
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« Reply #1013 on: June 09, 2015, 09:18:48 AM »

RIP Mario Beaulieu, Freedom Fighter. Cry

Will this mean the anti-mario party will rejoin the Bloc or are the bridges burnt?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1014 on: June 09, 2015, 09:31:24 AM »

Crabcake: F&D isn't even included in polls, so no big deal either way.

Two obvious seat options: rematch against Laverdière in Laurier-Saint-Marie or running against Boulerice in Rosemont-La Petite Patrie.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1015 on: June 09, 2015, 11:05:35 AM »

The NDP already beat Duceppe and the Bloc once when they were credible. They can do it again when the Bloc is in worse condition.
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #1016 on: June 09, 2015, 12:54:34 PM »

There's one of those good Canadian political plot twists I love so much.

Can the NDP beat the Bloc again? Sure, like Holmes said they've done it once already. Will they capture like 57 of Quebec's seats again? I'm pretty doubtful. The first piece of genuinely bad news for the NDP in a little while. They're really going to have to knock it out of the park again.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #1017 on: June 09, 2015, 01:00:27 PM »

The NDP only needs about 40% of the vote in Quebec to get 57 seats (they're at that in half the polls), and the conditions in Quebec now aren't that different from 2011, so it's still a reasonable outcome.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1018 on: June 09, 2015, 01:19:57 PM »

Duceppe might be better off running somewhere off the Island of Montreal. I suppose the BQ might have a shot at more working class east end Montreal seats (like Hochelaga), but isn't Laurier and Rosemont more full of your latte progressive types?
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« Reply #1019 on: June 09, 2015, 02:16:31 PM »

Do the Bloc exclusively steal off left-leaning votes, or does it also get CAQ conservative Francophones who might vote Tory as well?
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2952-0-0
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« Reply #1020 on: June 09, 2015, 02:22:28 PM »

Do the Bloc exclusively steal off left-leaning votes, or does it also get CAQ conservative Francophones who might vote Tory as well?

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/06/ndp-and-mulcair-continue-to-rise/

Judging by the second choice poll, looks like they steal mostly NDP votes.

But this assumes Duceppe *does* steal votes at all. Judging by comments on social media in Quebec so far, the reaction seems to be pretty horrible outside of the hard sovereigntists. It's one thing to think the party was better under Duceppe (before 2011, that is). It's another to actually want to see him come back.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #1021 on: June 09, 2015, 02:29:55 PM »

Do the Bloc exclusively steal off left-leaning votes, or does it also get CAQ conservative Francophones who might vote Tory as well?
A good chunk of CAQ voters voted NDP federally, so it's not like the NDP live off exclusively on left-wing votes either.
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Hash
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« Reply #1022 on: June 09, 2015, 02:33:56 PM »

Do the Bloc exclusively steal off left-leaning votes, or does it also get CAQ conservative Francophones who might vote Tory as well?

In its heydays, the Bloc attracted both left-of-centre Francophone nationalists in more urban areas and right-of-centre Francophone nationalists/soft nationalists in rural Quebec, the kind of people who voted for the ADQ in 2007 and many of whom are now voting CAQ. In part, what doomed the Bloc in 2011 is that many soft nationalist Francophones - imagined largely as French-speaking suburbanites who don't care much about independence anymore but don't identify as federalists (and hence don't feel like voting Liberal much) - switched in droves to the NDP and many of them voted CAQ in 2014, especially in the 450.

The traditional federal Tory base in Quebec since 2006 and which held in 2011 has primarily been in those heavily Francophone rural areas in the Chaudière-Appalache which have never been strongly nationalist regions (the most 'famous' region being Beauce) but are very conservative in general ideological terms. The Bloc has never done well in this region, although it mostly voted Bloc in 2004 (by unimpressive margins) but before that was mostly Liberal in 2000 and 1997. Quebec City also voted Tory in 2006 and 2008, but switched to the NDP in 2011 and will be a hot battleground again in October, but it has fairly odd politics although it has not liked the Bloc/PQ much at all in recent years outside of the lone nationalist holdout which is Old Quebec City/downtown. The federal Conservatives never actually broke through with the 'soft nationalists' in suburban Montreal (mostly North Shore) and nationalist-conservativeish places like Lanaudière or rural Mauricie, although they may have been on the verge of doing so in circa 2007 but then failed when Harper's Tories bombed in Quebec in the 2008 federal campaign (on the arts funding kerfuffle) and thus ensured a Bloc landslide by default.
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andrew_c
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« Reply #1023 on: June 09, 2015, 03:36:29 PM »

There's one of those good Canadian political plot twists I love so much.

Can the NDP beat the Bloc again? Sure, like Holmes said they've done it once already. Will they capture like 57 of Quebec's seats again? I'm pretty doubtful. The first piece of genuinely bad news for the NDP in a little while. They're really going to have to knock it out of the park again.

If federalists vote tactically against the Bloc, the NDP could win even more seats in Quebec than last time.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #1024 on: June 09, 2015, 05:51:35 PM »

Do the Bloc exclusively steal off left-leaning votes, or does it also get CAQ conservative Francophones who might vote Tory as well?

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/06/ndp-and-mulcair-continue-to-rise/

Judging by the second choice poll, looks like they steal mostly NDP votes.

But this assumes Duceppe *does* steal votes at all. Judging by comments on social media in Quebec so far, the reaction seems to be pretty horrible outside of the hard sovereigntists. It's one thing to think the party was better under Duceppe (before 2011, that is). It's another to actually want to see him come back.

Personally I always liked Duceppe.  Obviously didn't agree with his nationalist asperations or many of his semi communist political views, but I always thought he was an honest person with great integrity.
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