Canadian federal election - 2015

[136or142]

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/federal-parties-in-dead-heat-in-poll-that-shows-57percent-of-canadians-would-support-a-coalition-government/ar-BBkP6Cr

This article on this poll says as well

The Tories are within a majority

Great news for Harper and the Conservatives

Do you honestly believe that a party would get a majority with only a 1% lead? Or do you really believe what the media is telling you?

It's likely very rare, but it's not entirely unheard of.  These are the results of the Alberta election excluding Edmonton and (some) of the Edmonton suburbs. (For a description of what is an isn't included, check out the wiki page on the 2015 Alberta elections for how they defined the regions.)

NDP 32.75% 33
W.R 29.40 21
P.C 30.12 10
Lib 3.84 1
A.P 2.71 1


So the NDP won 33 of 66 ridings in a virtual 3 way split.  If the votes fall just right, you can win a majority under these circumstances.

[DC Al Fine]

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/federal-parties-in-dead-heat-in-poll-that-shows-57percent-of-canadians-would-support-a-coalition-government/ar-BBkP6Cr

This article on this poll says as well

The Tories are within a majority

Great news for Harper and the Conservatives

Do you honestly believe that a party would get a majority with only a 1% lead? Or do you really believe what the media is telling you?

It's likely very rare, but it's not entirely unheard of.  These are the results of the Alberta election excluding Edmonton and (some) of the Edmonton suburbs. (For a description of what is an isn't included, check out the wiki page on the 2015 Alberta elections for how they defined the regions.)

NDP 32.75% 33
W.R 29.40 21
P.C 30.12 10
Lib 3.84 1
A.P 2.71 1


So the NDP won 33 of 66 ridings in a virtual 3 way split.  If the votes fall just right, you can win a majority under these circumstances.

Heck, the Tories nearly won a majority off a 4% loss in 1979.

[RogueBeaver]

Completely agreed w/Hebert, as usual.

[Hatman 🍁]

I never understood why Duceppe never made the jump to provincial politics.

[RogueBeaver]

Because Marois scared him off twice. Both times were extremely hilarious, '07 more than '12.

[Lotuslander]

In a poll conducted by CROP just last month, support for QC sovereignty stood at 42%. As a matter of fact, 42% is around the same level of support in opinion polls conducted just a month prior to the 1995 referendum.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Since the BQ averaged 16.5% in QC in the latest 308 projection, 3 times more support equates to ~50%.

"Potentially" speaking... "Houston... we have a problem".

[MaxQue]

Those polls about "possible leaders" always overpoll those people, through.

It's mostly name recognition and Duceppe have plenty of those. And no one in Quebec pundits or pepople I know believe it. They think it's just spin.

There is no desire for independence here and while there will be a boost for Bloc, it won't treble. I see between +5 and 10%, part of which may go away depending how he does his first month.

[136or142]

Because Marois scared him off twice. Both times were extremely hilarious, '07 more than '12.

I heard the reason was that while the P.Q and most Quebec voters didn't mind that Duceppe had at least some communistic views as the leader of a federal party, very few people wanted that in a possible Premier.

[MaxQue]

Because Marois scared him off twice. Both times were extremely hilarious, '07 more than '12.

I heard the reason was that while the P.Q and most Quebec voters didn't mind that Duceppe had at least some communistic views as the leader of a federal party, very few people wanted that in a possible Premier.

No. Very few people are aware of his Communist past.

[RogueBeaver]

Duceppe speaks to Radio-Canada.

Agreed w/Patriquin.

[Hatman 🍁]

And what exactly are Duceppe's "communistic views"?

[RogueBeaver]

It's official: Duceppe is leader again.

[lilTommy]

Federal Atlantic Canada numbers from CRA
http://www.halifaxer.com/2015/06/10/ndp-support-surges-in-atlantic-canada/

LPC - 43% (-13)
NDP - 29% (+15)
CPC - 24% (-2)

CRA has also published provincial numbers in NB, NS and NFLD which also indicate an upward trend for the NDP at the expense of the Liberals mostly, to a smaller extent the PCs too though.

[Holmes]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/gilles-duceppe-returns-to-lead-bloc-quebecois/article24893180/?service=mobile

Duceppe not even trying.

[MaxQue]

It's me or "Vote Bloc in Quebec and let other provinces decides who will be the next Prime Minister" an horribly bad argument?

[Boston Bread]

My poll average in Ontario comes to 32.8% CPC, 32.4% LPC, 28.8 NDP. My model has the NDP gaining these seats, all from the Conservatives:

Brampton East
Brantford-Brant
Essex
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
Kenora
Oshawa
Sarnia-Lambton
Sault Ste. Marie

Losses:
Scarborough Southwest

They actually hold or win back all of their 2011 seats in the GTA, albeit by a close margin against the Liberals in several of them. Impressive considering they were looking at a near wipeout in the GTA before the Notley/C-51 bump.

An interesting bit: A bit earlier we were talking about the possibility of a Liberal pickup in MacKay's seat. But I think the NDP, rather than the Liberals would place second there based on current polls, even with the large Liberal lead province wide.

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair on Duceppe: he's "part of the electoral landscape."

[Boston Bread]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Since the BQ averaged 16.5% in QC in the latest 308 projection, 3 times more support equates to ~50%.

"Potentially" speaking... "Houston... we have a problem".

Actually, the BQ internal poll had them at 29% with Duceppe. Probably the biggest bump they can manage.
http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201506/09/01-4876726-retour-de-duceppe-beaulieu-a-lui-meme-entrepris-les-demarches.php

[Hatman 🍁]

My poll average in Ontario comes to 32.8% CPC, 32.4% LPC, 28.8 NDP. My model has the NDP gaining these seats, all from the Conservatives:

Brampton East
Brantford-Brant
Essex
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
Kenora
Oshawa
Sarnia-Lambton
Sault Ste. Marie

Losses:
Scarborough Southwest

They actually hold or win back all of their 2011 seats in the GTA, albeit by a close margin against the Liberals in several of them. Impressive considering they were looking at a near wipeout in the GTA before the Notley/C-51 bump.

An interesting bit: A bit earlier we were talking about the possibility of a Liberal pickup in MacKay's seat. But I think the NDP, rather than the Liberals would place second there based on current polls, even with the large Liberal lead province wide.

Brampton East doesn't really count as a gain, considering the NDP won it notionally.

[The Lord Marbury]

It's me or "Vote Bloc in Quebec and let other provinces decides who will be the next Prime Minister" an horribly bad argument?

I read your post before I read the article and actually thought it was an argument put forward by the one of the other parties as to why not vote Bloc. So yeah, pretty bad.

[Simfan34]

It's me or "Vote Bloc in Quebec and let other provinces decides who will be the next Prime Minister" an horribly bad argument?

I read your post before I read the article and actually thought it was an argument put forward by the one of the other parties as to why not vote Bloc. So yeah, pretty bad.

Why don't the Scots realize this?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I hate to concern troll here, but this seems like terrible news for the NDP and the chances of getting Harper out of office. The NDP got it's Orange Wave in Quebec because of the appeal to the soft nationalist but progressive voters. The BQ with Duceppe back in power is going to have a lot of appeal to those voters compared to the current clown in charge of the party now.

Although, the BQ did get wiped out with Duceppe in charge in 2011, so it could happen again.

[2952-0-0]

^ I don't think so. It's one thing to like Duceppe as a person. It's another to so transparently indicate the Bloc is out of ideas.

Hard nationalists will vote Bloc in any case. Soft nationalist progressives understand that defeating Harper is the more urgent priority. That's why they went NDP in 2011 after all.

[RogueBeaver]

Working Families spinoff going federal.

O'Regan doesn't know his own platform.

[Holmes]

O'Regan doesn't know his own platform.

The Conservatives doing work for the NDP in Newfoundland.