Canadian federal election - 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

When you assume...

[Boston Bread]

When you assume...

If "other" parties in QC get 5%, where exactly would they be going? It's just an artifact of the polling and mathematical magic.

I don't believe F&D has a chance, given that I doubt 5% in QC will vote for a party other than the "big 5". But if 5% did it is a possibility.

I already account for this in my main model where I weigh several polls and penalize "other" votes. Don't take my 1 F&D seat projection as a prediction.

[Hatman 🍁]

We have not seen "other" being higher in Quebec than in any other province. So, while some of the "other" support is for the F&D, most of it is just a parked "none of the above" that's likely not for any party.

[adma]

Again: below 25%, I *cannot* see the Liberals winning 80 seats, much less 100.

[Boston Bread]

Again: below 25%, I *cannot* see the Liberals winning 80 seats, much less 100.

I can see it if:
1) Much of the vote goes to Green/Other. In the EKOS poll the two get 11%, while in 2011 they got 5% combined. That's 6% less for the big parties.
2) The CPC vote collapses. Suburban Ontario is EXTREMELY key for the Liberals. It's the difference between 60 and 100 seats. And what wins suburban Ontario for the Liberals is not a low NDP vote, but a low CPC vote due to how poorly the NDP fare there. A 36-26-26 split allows Liberals to win a whole lot of GTA ridings with about 40% of the vote, simply because the Conservative vote falls through the floor. Tip the Liberals just a couple points lower and the bottom starts falling out for them as well.

The EKOS poll is suggesting 1) and 2). But I doubt either would occur an actual election.

[RogueBeaver]

Leger: NPD 32, BQ 26, PLC 24, PCC 16. Francos: NPD 33, BQ 32, PLC 18, PCC 16.

As usual, I agree with Ibbitson.

[Boston Bread]

So far Duceppe's leadership bump is no bigger than Paillé, who polled in the high 20's for a month or so after becoming Bloc leader. Disaster averted?

[DC Al Fine]

So far Duceppe's leadership bump is no bigger than Paillé, who polled in the high 20's for a month or so after becoming Bloc leader. Disaster averted?

Depends on whose side you're on. A viable Bloc is good for both the Liberals and the Tories.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hmm, a statistical tie among Francos? That could make things very interesting.

[DL]

So far Duceppe's leadership bump is no bigger than Paillé, who polled in the high 20's for a month or so after becoming Bloc leader. Disaster averted?

Depends on whose side you're on. A viable Bloc is good for both the Liberals and the Tories.

Yeah it's funny how the Liberals in particular pontificate about Canadian unity and are always trying to imply that the NDP are not truly committed to federalism...and yet at the same time the Liberals and the Tories are both obviously rooting for the separatist BQ to become a force again...such hypocrites

[You kip if you want to...]

So far Duceppe's leadership bump is no bigger than Paillé, who polled in the high 20's for a month or so after becoming Bloc leader. Disaster averted?

Depends on whose side you're on. A viable Bloc is good for both the Liberals and the Tories.

Yeah it's funny how the Liberals in particular pontificate about Canadian unity and are always trying to imply that the NDP are not truly committed to federalism...and yet at the same time the Liberals and the Tories are both obviously rooting for the separatist BQ to become a force again...such hypocrites

That's exactly how the UK Tories won last month...

[Boston Bread]

Although the Tories have never won a majority in the years in which the Bloc won Quebec (1993-2008)

[Vosem]

Although the Tories have never won a majority in the years in which the Bloc won Quebec (1993-2008)

The Tories won 10 Quebec seats in both of their minority governments (2006 & 2008), but only 6 when they won a majority in 2011. In none of those elections was Quebec particularly decisive. What matters for the Tories isn't receiving a great deal of support from Quebec, but rather stopping their opponents from doing so -- either through disunity or through a strong Bloc performance. Right now there seems like a solid chance of both events happening.

[RogueBeaver]

Rajotte retiring.

Agreed with Den Tandt.

[Holmes]

Can the NDP win Edmonton Riverbend without Rajotte, or is it out of their grasp?

[Njall]

Can the NDP win Edmonton Riverbend without Rajotte, or is it out of their grasp?

Southwest suburban Edmonton has never been super friendly to the NDP.  Or rather, that's what I would've said before the recent provincial election.  I still think that an NDP win would be unlikely there, but I can't say for certain.

[RogueBeaver]

Maclean's debate set for Aug. 6.

[Hatman 🍁]

AUGUST 6? No one is going to watch a debate in the middle of summer. I for one wont even have internet access that week.

[RogueBeaver]

Grits shoving a bunch of policy out the door soon.

[RogueBeaver]

Angus-Reid: 36/33/23. NDP leads in BC and ON.

[Boston Bread]

48% in Quebec omg! Post-Duceppe or not? If so, RIP Bloc.

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NDP actually tails CPC in ON 36-34 in the poll, not leading

[lilTommy]

48% in Quebec omg! Post-Duceppe or not? If so, RIP Bloc.

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NDP actually tails CPC in ON 36-34 in the poll, not leading

I took part in this survey, for me it was done before Duceppe's announcement so the next set of Quebec polls will be when we actually see if the Bloc get a bump.
Just like EKOS, this poll is showing the NDP have replaced the Liberals, in the polls, as the clear choice against Harper. In December the NDP was at 23%, now 36%; the Liberals were 35% and now 23%

... the Liberals are rolling out policy like no tomorrow now! on Government reform and infrastructure but they don't seem to "get" the NDP surge is not related fully to policy... it was the Liberals own actions on C-51, the senate and the Alberta results (primarily, good provincial moves in ON and BC have helped to a lesser extent regionally too) that have galvanized the progressive and anti-harper vote towards the NDP

[Holmes]

So an NDP government runs through BC, Ontario and Quebec. We all knew that already, though.

[Boston Bread]

My seat projection with Angus Reid:

If I replaced Quebec's numbers with Leger's numbers to represent a Bloc surge, the Conservatives would have a 20-ish seat lead instead.(although the national vote would 33-32 CPC-NDP once the QC NDP is brought down to Earth) Keep in mind also that Leger also has the Liberals doing better in QC than Angus-Reid, though.

[King of Kensington]

Angus Reid's Ontario numbers seem more apt to me.  As nice as it is to think that ridings like Perth-Wellington, Oxford, Chatham-Kent-Essex and Elgin-Middlesex-London are "leaning NDP" - I don't think the Tories are under 30% in Ontario.

Are there are any seats held by the Ontario PCs that the federal Tories could really lose - besides Nipissing perhaps?