Canadian federal election - 2015
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Author Topic: Canadian federal election - 2015  (Read 225152 times)
lilTommy
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« Reply #1175 on: June 25, 2015, 07:25:51 AM »

New Forum Poll:
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/305/nearing-majority-with-stronghold-in-bc/

NDP - 36% (+2) - 149 seats
CPC - 28% (-2) - 115
LPC - 28% (-) - 65

NDP leads in ON, PQ, Man/Sask and BC (Huge lead, 54%... that feels too high, higher then in PQ by almost 20 point)
A big change is who will win "Roughly equal proportions anticipate a Conservative (29%) or an NDP (27%) victory. Just fewer expect a Liberal victory (25%). "
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Holmes
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« Reply #1176 on: June 25, 2015, 09:11:48 AM »

Quebec being their "worst" province shouldn't be too worrying for the NDP. If they're still that high in the polls near election day, the province will fall in line. And they'd have to for the NDP to form government, really.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #1177 on: June 25, 2015, 04:58:41 PM »

Do you guys think the NDP is still tainted in ON by the stench of Bob Rae ? I am way too young to remember him as premier, but have read a lot about the 'Rae Day's' and the difficult economic times and austerity of his time in office. A lot of people 45 + would certainly remember him, and probably not too well. It could cut into the NDP's claims of competence when in office.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #1178 on: June 25, 2015, 06:03:42 PM »

The Bloc surge also seems to have died out. 20% in Forum and low 20's in the Ipsos and Environics poll. So much for Duceppemania splitting the left in Quebec.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1179 on: June 25, 2015, 08:25:36 PM »

Do you guys think the NDP is still tainted in ON by the stench of Bob Rae ? I am way too young to remember him as premier, but have read a lot about the 'Rae Day's' and the difficult economic times and austerity of his time in office. A lot of people 45 + would certainly remember him, and probably not too well. It could cut into the NDP's claims of competence when in office.

There are probably some very minor lingering effects, but I don't think it will affect very much. He's been gone 20 years and he didn't really do anything so bad and so outrageous as to kill the party brand (e.g. NEP with the Liberals made it a lot easier for NDP surge)
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #1180 on: June 25, 2015, 08:58:21 PM »

F&D is running a candidate in Peterborough?
http://www.mykawartha.com/news-story/5681949-new-candidate-in-peterborough-kawartha-riding-to-represent-quebec-based-party/
Apparently they're trying to go national.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #1181 on: June 26, 2015, 12:50:59 AM »
« Edited: June 26, 2015, 12:54:19 AM by Adam T »

NDP running sleazy attack line that Harper is a 'serious leader' while Justin Trudeau is not.

1.One of B.C.’s most renowned health researchers is backing Vancouver’s move to regulate marijuana dispensaries.

Dr. Julio Montaner is recognized globally for his work combating HIV/AIDS — something he says came with no help from the Conservative government’s policies.

“They are unable to have a mature, adult conversation about difficult issues, so it’s time for them to go.”

So, it seems I'm not the only one who believes that when serious issues comes up, Harper hides in a closet.

2.Do serious leaders pass laws they know will be declared unconstitutional precisely because they want them to be declared unconstitutional?

3.Do serious leaders make most of their cabinet little more than a focus group while the real power is held by 20 something kids straight out of university?

4.Do serious leaders put nearly all serious legislation in omnibus packages so that nobody has time to seriously scrutinize it and then insist it all pass in one vote?

5.Do serious leaders write legislation not based on evidence or even polls but based on what makes for good talking points?

6.Do serious leaders give people like Dean Del Mastro, Paul Calendra and Pierre Polievre important positions?

7.Do serious leaders jettison all their principles at the first turn?  (That said, I don't believe conservatives have any principles.)

8.Do serious leaders say things like "we don't condemn things just because we find them offensive in response to Charlie Hebdo, and then literally a week later, say people should not be allowed to cover their faces at citizenship ceremonies because "Canadians find it offensive."

Harper may look serious with the glasses and they graying hair, and he does often sound sober (at least as Prime Minister, he was "Angry Tom" on speed as opposition leader.)  But, there is nothing serious about him as Prime Minister except for his serious need to maintain power at any cost.

Justin Trudeau is Confucius, Moses and Abraham compared to Sleazy unserious Stephen.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #1182 on: June 26, 2015, 06:28:44 AM »

Do you guys think the NDP is still tainted in ON by the stench of Bob Rae ? I am way too young to remember him as premier, but have read a lot about the 'Rae Day's' and the difficult economic times and austerity of his time in office. A lot of people 45 + would certainly remember him, and probably not too well. It could cut into the NDP's claims of competence when in office.

There are probably some very minor lingering effects, but I don't think it will affect very much. He's been gone 20 years and he didn't really do anything so bad and so outrageous as to kill the party brand (e.g. NEP with the Liberals made it a lot easier for NDP surge)

 http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/the-hidden-history-of-bob-raes-government-in-ontario/article1314254/
There is a good article from a few years ago Zyzz that sums up what DC Al Fine said. It comes down to basically a massive smear campaign from the right-wing media and corporate leaders that dominates a government that wasn't actually that bad given the economic situation at the time. Now the Rae government did fail to deliver one of its main policies, public auto-insurance and the Social contract was a mistake in how it was forced and not really negotiated with the public unions. Rae Days aren't really that bad when you think of it, and it was part of a plan to try and save public sector jobs after pressure was being put to cut the PS by about 30,000 people.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1183 on: June 29, 2015, 07:22:32 AM »

Scott Andrews is PISSED and may run as an Indie Grit.

Dippers want Chow to run against Vaughan. What say you, Ontarians?
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #1184 on: June 29, 2015, 07:58:55 AM »


If a real journalist reported that New Democrats want Chow to run against Vaughan, I'd believe it.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1185 on: June 29, 2015, 08:08:27 AM »

Akin isn't a real journalist? LOL.

In other news, BOIE may start clawing back some money from Dippers.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #1186 on: June 29, 2015, 08:17:09 AM »


There was nothing in that piece by Akin you posted a link to that suggested he was a real journalist.
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DL
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« Reply #1187 on: June 29, 2015, 11:40:26 AM »

Sounds to me like its virtually a done deal that Olivia Chow will run against Adam Vaughan and given the current state of play between the NDP and Liberals nationally, i suspect she would win.

What would Adam Vaughan do after losing? Collect EI for a few years? Run against John Tory for mayor in 2018?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1188 on: June 29, 2015, 01:23:30 PM »

Grit environmental policy here.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #1189 on: June 29, 2015, 05:49:14 PM »

Sounds to me like its virtually a done deal that Olivia Chow will run against Adam Vaughan and given the current state of play between the NDP and Liberals nationally, i suspect she would win.

What would Adam Vaughan do after losing? Collect EI for a few years? Run against John Tory for mayor in 2018?

Chow defeating Vaughan would delicious.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1190 on: June 29, 2015, 07:29:49 PM »

Maclean's has more details on Mulcair's 2007 negotiations about joining the government as an environmental advisor. I never believed he would run for us.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #1191 on: June 30, 2015, 08:40:13 AM »

Chow would lead Vaughan 44-36 according to a Mainstreet poll.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1192 on: June 30, 2015, 08:45:28 AM »


Why is this even an issue? The fact that he chose to run for the NDP, in 2007, in QUEBEC, for Pete's sake shows that he went with the party that best fits his values.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1193 on: June 30, 2015, 09:12:36 AM »

Cause Butts is desperate.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1194 on: July 01, 2015, 12:39:01 PM »

Crosbie vetoed in Avalon.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1195 on: July 01, 2015, 06:16:46 PM »

Wow. I wonder if it is because he is just as much of a blowhard as his father?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1196 on: July 02, 2015, 07:14:43 AM »

Dippers on a Toronto offensive.

ROFLMAO Simpson.

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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1197 on: July 02, 2015, 02:21:14 PM »

Nepean will get what it deserves.
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Qavvavak
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« Reply #1198 on: July 02, 2015, 05:30:03 PM »

Clyde River Mayor Jerry Natanine is anti-seismic testing in Baffin Bay/Davis Strait and seeks Nunavut NDP nomination
Nunavut Green candidate Spencer Rocchi
The Nunavut Liberal Association said an announcement about its candidate is expected in the next couple weeks

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/jerry-natanine-seeks-nunavut-ndp-nomination-in-federal-election-1.3135720

So if Jerry Natanine is chosen, he will be major voters by largest island Baffin region because he is from Baffin (Qikiqtaaluk) against conservative Leona Aglukkaq who is from Kitikmeot region.
Kivalliq region is likely goes Jerry Natanine but could be Jerry or Leona 50/50

there is three regions in Nunavut (Kitikmeot in West Nunavut, Kivalliq in centre and Baffin in east)
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DL
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« Reply #1199 on: July 03, 2015, 08:31:30 AM »

Latest EKOS poll of 1,750 June 24-28

NDP - 31%
CPC - 27%
Libs - 26%

https://ipolitics.ca/2015/07/03/ekos-a-renewed-three-way-race-with-encouraging-news-for-the-liberals-graves/

NDP is way ahead in Quebec and BC and slightly ahead in Ontario. Liberals only lead in Atlantic and Tories lead across the Prairies...I suspect the Tory vote would be very ineffecient in this kind of scenario - they would pile up huge majorities and waste a lot of votes in the rural west and some rural/exurban parts of ontario and get crushed everywhere else
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