Canadian federal election - 2015

[DC Al Fine]

Ivison says there's a decent chance Harper may call the election in 3-4 weeks.

Mulcair interview.

Hmm. I'm intrigued. Does Harper not remember how long a campaign he needed to turf the Liberals? Personally, if I were to try any shenanigans, I'd call a snap election for the dead of summer and hope my turnout advantage has a larger affect now and that generic anti-Harperites stay home.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, 8 weeks. I like long writ campaigns, personally.

[RogueBeaver]

Fiery Dipper calls for the death of Liberalism.

[King of Kensington]

Fiery Dipper calls for the death of Liberalism.

Funny how he sees the US Democrats as a model rather than "an obstacle to true progressive policies."

Then again, the NDP was founded, in part, to appeal to "liberally minded Canadians."

[136or142]

Fiery Dipper calls for the death of Liberalism.

Ed Broadbent said the same thing back in 1988, there was a great deal of blowback then, but the Liberal Party has nowhere near the same level of hardcore supporters now than it did back then.

[RogueBeaver]

Senior minister tells the Globe dissolution will be in late August or early September.

[lilTommy]

New Forum Poll
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/07/17/ndp-captures-lead-in-public-support-forum-poll-says.html

but I can't seem to open the forum link? it takes us to the Forum home page where this poll isn't even up and The Star poll tracker graph is not up to date either?
Anywho...

NDP - 34% (+2) - 132 seats
CPC - 27% (-5)  - 107 seats
LPC - 27% (+1) - 79 seats

[Hatman 🍁]

I think it's a little misleading to report on their "seat totals"

[lilTommy]

I think it's a little misleading to report on their "seat totals"

... probably right, but its still fun
the Globe has this simulator... if you keep hitting run new simulation... the NDP had anywhere from 112-156 seats so, grain of salt for sure! I was just giving the info from the site

[RogueBeaver]

EKOS has NDP 33, Tories 29, Grits 24. Here in QC, NPD 38, BQ 23, PLC 19, PCC 15.

[Holmes]

Forum's seat projection is just so bad. The NDP would get more than a 25 seat margin with a 7% victory, and no way would the Conservatives lead the Liberals by 30 seats if their vote share is equal. Mess.

[136or142]

Finally at least someone is asking questions about the role of the Governor General in the case of a minority Parliament.  From the Georgia Straight.  I hope it's ok to post the whole story here, as it is just one part of a larger section (Straight Talk).

If not: http://www.straight.com/news/490381/close-federal-election-race-puts-spotlight-canadas-governor-general

By Carlito Pablo
With the fall federal election looking like a three-way race, an expert on constitutional law says a number of scenarios could unfold if no party wins a majority.

According to Margot Young, a professor in UBC’s Allard School of Law, Governor General David Johnston may do either of three things: one would be to grant the party with the most seats the opportunity to rule as a minority government; another would be to allow a coalition of parties that can muster more numbers than the party with the plurality; and a third would be to call another election.

Although Young noted that the third situation is a “very highly unlikely outcome”, it demonstrates the crucial role of the governor general in exceptional circumstances.

“That’s actually why people are saying [that] should that circumstance arise, you want to have someone with quite a bit of constitutional wisdom and savviness in the position of the governor general and that David Johnston might be such a person,” Young told the Straight in a phone interview about the former law professor and dean.

“It’s something the governor general has to consider and, obviously, will take constitutional legal advice about,” she continued. “The really important point here is that there are no formal rules that dictate how the governor general must behave in this circumstance.”

Exceptional circumstances also include a minority government getting defeated by a vote of confidence. The prime minister may ask the governor general to dissolve Parliament to pave the way for a new election, or a group of other parties can ask for the chance to form government.

“There’s always an opportunity for the opposition to say: ‘Hang on. Let’s not go to a general election. We can cobble together a coalition that will allow us to govern,’ ” Young said, describing this as a “completely legitimate outcome”.

That was why it was “so distressing” when the Conservatives prorogued Parliament in 2008 when it looked like the Liberals, New Democrats, and Bloc Québécois could constitute a coalition government. According to Young, it was one of those rare circumstances when the governor general—Michaëlle Jean, at the time—could have said no to the prime minister’s request to suspend parliament.

[Boston Bread]

This is apparently what comes up when a page can't be found on the CPC website.

[Holmes]

That's a bit funny.

[adma]

Forum's seat projection is just so bad. The NDP would get more than a 25 seat margin with a 7% victory, and no way would the Conservatives lead the Liberals by 30 seats if their vote share is equal. Mess.

Why not with the latter?  After all, the Cons have incumbent-seat advantage, and the Libs could very well now suffer from the same monkey-in-the-middle syndrome that eternally kept its UK namesake's seat totals down...

[136or142]

Forum's seat projection is just so bad. The NDP would get more than a 25 seat margin with a 7% victory, and no way would the Conservatives lead the Liberals by 30 seats if their vote share is equal. Mess.

Why not with the latter?  After all, the Cons have incumbent-seat advantage, and the Libs could very well now suffer from the same monkey-in-the-middle syndrome that eternally kept its UK namesake's seat totals down...

When most people decide they want to get rid of a government, it's often the incumbents who see the largest decline in their percent of the vote.  We saw this dramatically in the 1997 U.K election.

[RogueBeaver]

WFP also suggesting Aug. 20.
Mulcair interview.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Tbf, the Lib Dems did great in 97 due to a great targeting campaign. The liberals have been campaigning up to now on the basis of forming government, assuming that the Orange Crush was a bust. I don't see how much targeting the Liberals have been doing.

[adma]

And for every 1997, there's a 1983, i.e. Labour w/209 seats on 27.6%, SDP w/23 seats on 25.4%.

Better by-any-means-possible comparisons to 1997 might be the most recent Quebec (on behalf of CAQ) and Alberta (on behalf of Wildrose) elections.  Or even, to a limited degree, the 1990 Rae landslide in Ontario, where the depleted PCs lost overall share yet still gained seats, firmed up existing incumbent seats, and drove a number of Liberal incumbents to third.

If there's something like *that* anti-Con dynamic working, then we might see the the third-place Liberals taking back a lot of the 905 belt "anyway".  But as of yet, it's hard to tell if that's the case, or if the Grits are cognizant of the fact...

[Holmes]

Mulcair interview.

Reading someone say "If you want Canada to become the next Greece, vote for the NDP" in French in the comment section was a bit of a surreal experience.

[136or142]

Mulcair interview.

Reading someone say "If you want Canada to become the next Greece, vote for the NDP" in French in the comment section was a bit of a surreal experience.

I believe he meant to say "If you want Canada to become the next Ancient Greece, the cradle of (renewed) Democracy, vote for the NDP"

[MaxQue]

Mulcair interview.

Reading someone say "If you want Canada to become the next Greece, vote for the NDP" in French in the comment section was a bit of a surreal experience.

How come? We get people (or it's one unique Conservative staffer?) repeating in the comments of every news of every news website allowing comment.

We also get another one rambling about the "unacceptable" NDP positions on "Islamic veil" and than only Bloc can safe Quebec culture from assimilation, on every website.

[politicus]

Mulcair interview.

Reading someone say "If you want Canada to become the next Greece, vote for the NDP" in French in the comment section was a bit of a surreal experience.

You need a lot of global warming for Canada to become like Greece, so voting Conservative would seem a much more sensible way to achieve that goal.

[RogueBeaver]

More writ speculation, this time from CP.

[RogueBeaver]

Very interesting Léger federal poll. Here in Quebec: 37 (+5), 23 (+7), 19 (-7), 18 (-6). Nationally: 32/32/25. Since May NDP +11 nationally, Grits -9.