Canadian federal election - 2015

[Boston Bread]

Any chance the Bloc doesn't nominate a candidate in Papineau and it becomes a 2 person battle?  Wishful thinking...

Also, does anyone else think the NDP might have a shot at the new Mississauga - Malton?  Or would Brampton - East be where most of the NDP vote Jagmeet Singh got?

As the map shows the NDP actually won what is now Brampton-East in 2011, and with their provincial gains in that riding with Singh this is their best shot in the 905. Mississauga-Malton looks much weaker for the NDP.

[Boston Bread]

Ipsos-national: 35/31/24, 41/34 in Ontario.

Yet another round of alternate realities:
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/234/convincing-majority-seen/
Forum currently predicting a liberal majority and the NDP at record post-Layton lows.

[Boston Bread]

This new BQ ad...

Worked so well for the PQ last year.

Not sure if it's a coincidence, but BQ is going up in the polls. Now that the conservative Quebec surge is starting to end will a BQ surge come next? (Not that I would expect it to last any longer)

[Boston Bread]

In Canada there are no further-right parties so Israel is a bad comparison.

[Boston Bread]

Unfinished EKOS poll has NDP leading 3-way race.

Woah.

Bring on the orange crush!

[Boston Bread]

Per twitter, today's forum poll will have NDP @ 30%.

Trudeau must be getting worried. If the NDP surpasses the Liberals, they will likely stay there.

[Boston Bread]

The Quebec numbers are what's striking. The results for all 4 parties in Quebec are in 2011 territory. Which means 50+ seats for the NDP there. The NDP vote is actually more efficient than the Liberal vote overall, so I think a tight NDP-Con race is slightly worse for Harper than a tight Lib-Con race.

BC and Ontario will decide if a CON majority is possible. If Conservatives get <40% in either it's not possible.

[Boston Bread]

A hilarious 32-61 approval rating for Harper. If only Canada used IRV...

That's one of the biggest difference between the Canada and UK elections (the others being no further-right party & no separatist insurgence). The centre-left leaders are far more popular than Harper among moderates. Whereas Cameron's approval ratings were well above Ed's.

[Boston Bread]

Thanks Rachel Notley?

Thank Justin and his backstab on C-51. I've been an NDP hack ever since. And similarly, the Waterloo NDP candidate Diane Freeman soon-to-be-proclaimed is a recent Lib->NDP convert from city council.

[Boston Bread]

What's the likelihood of Saskatchewan eclipsing Alberta as the province with the highest Conservative popular vote share?

That's yet to happen in any poll, though. And if we were going to see it happen it would be now, but the Conservatives are still at the high 40's in AB and low 40's in SK.

Personally, I don't think it will happen. The effect of the ABNDP majority will to cause Liberals, not so Conservatives, to swing NDP. So the conservative vote will largely be unchanged.

[Boston Bread]

Yes, the difference is CGY + EDM = 2/3 of Alberta' pop. In Sask Regina+Saskatoon = 1/2 of the Sask's population. Saskatchewan is much more rural/small town.

According to Wiki, Greater Calgary and Greater Edmonton combine for 47 of Alberta's 87 ridings.

Some AB rural ridings have half the population of some urban ridings. Also Wiki's definitions include the entire metro area including exurbs like Spruce Grove, so that make the two cities more like 54 or so ridings.

[Boston Bread]

Don't forget Lethbridge - the NDP performed decently last time and NDP got close to 50% at the provincial level. Same goes for that Northern SK riding - name slips by me. I realized that's what you meant by DMCR, sorry.
I like seeing rural NDP ridings for the purpose of having large orange land areas. Urban ridings are more important electorally but they don't look as imposing on the map.

[Boston Bread]

If the NDP keeps its momentum, Trudeau pushing right would be the best thing to have ever happened to the... NDP.
If you try to look at the Liberal perspective, it's a hard balance when it comes to stuff like taxes. But C-51 was an unmistakably poor move.
Hagrid, don't forget the Libs should at least be trying to win voters like me over. I feel as equally betrayed as you are.

[Boston Bread]

Harper has secured an endorsement from...
Jeb Bush
http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2015/05/20/jeb-bush-says-he-wants-stephen-harper-re-elected.html

[Boston Bread]

Aren't the Liberals supposed to be at least competitive in Burnaby-North Seymour? I think the numbers are switched there. This is bad news for Trudeau as Libs underperform what the provincial level polls suggest they should get in all 4.

[Boston Bread]

Reports on twitter suggests the next EKOS poll has the NDP over 30% in BC, ON, and AB, and tied with Conservatives in Ontario.

Edit: here it is

[Boston Bread]

I've just given my model an upgrade in time for the 2015 election. The most amusing thing I noticed is that according to the model the NDP's best seat by vote % is none other than Edmonton-Strathcona

[Boston Bread]

And in regards to the current weakness of the SKNDP, keep in mind that Canadian parties typically wax and wane in a region quite spectacularly. In the 1965 federal election, the NDP failed to win a single seat in SK even with Tommy Douglas as leader! He was elected from BC instead.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1965

[Boston Bread]

For reference, here's what my model says about possible Alberta targets for the opposition parties on my current PV estimates (47% Con, 31% NDP, 15% Lib, 5% Green, 2% Other). Does anything look too implausible?

Over half the ridings are safe Con so I'll only list the ones where CPC is vulnerable:

Safe NDP
Edmonton Strathcona (duh)
Edmonton Griesbach (!)

Likely NDP
Lethbridge (!)
Edmonton Centre
Edmonton Manning

Lean NDP
Edmonton Mill Woods

Tossup (NDP/CPC)
St. Albert-Edmonton (due to vote splitting between CPC and CPC-turned independent)
Edmonton Riverbend

Lean CPC (vulnerable to NDP)
Edmonton West

Likely CPC (could be vulnerable to Lib or NDP)
Calgary Forest Lawn
Calgary Signal Hill

Likely CPC (could be vulnerable to NDP only)
Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner (!)
Calgary Nose Hill

Tossup (CPC/NDP/Lib)
Calgary Confederation

Tossup (CPC/Lib)
Calgary Centre

Lean Lib
Calgary Skyview

Everything else Safe CPC

In total we have 6-9 NDP, 1-3 Lib, 23-27 CPC seats.

[Boston Bread]

The absolute ceiling I see for the federal NDP in Alberta is 16 seats to the CPC's 18, which entails winning every seat that I did not list as Safe CPC. In terms of popular vote, the NDP would have to tie the Conservatives (around 43-43-10 for CPC/NDP/LIB). As crazy as it sounds, it's a less remote possibility than Premier Notley was as of April 1.

Although if Notley really wanted to hurt Harper, she would secede from Canada to form the independent socialist republic of Alberta
Harper would no longer be a Canadian citizen and the CPC will be denied 20-some seats, already reducing them to a minority. Hell, NDP+Liberals+Bloc+Green+F&D could form a coalition immediately without Alberta's seats, without an election. What an evil plan that would be!

[Boston Bread]

Re MH-C-W: if you're projecting from 2011 figures, keep in mind that Jim Hillyer ran his infamous "invisible campaign" across a lot of that turf, which brought the Con vote artificially down...

Jim Hillyer is running in MH-C-W is he not? I agree that this is the model's most outlandish target, but if he is the candidate again in MH-C-W there is no reason to inflate the conservative number there.

[Boston Bread]

We have our first poll after a long polling drought.


NDP down in Ontario, up in Quebec, Prairies. Liberals still 3rd in a 3 way race.
Look at how the Greens bounce between the teens to 1% in Manitoba. Yay small sample sizes!

[Boston Bread]

No further breakdown, usually they are posted once they have their full release on the ekos website.

This is what my model gives with my weighted poll average.


My riding of Waterloo: 32/41/18/8 (Liberal gain)

I attended NDP candidate Diane Freeman's nomination meeting yesterday. The Bearded One came and gave a speech. She seems like a star candidate to me, although the model doesn't show it yet.

[Boston Bread]

The paywall on the ekos poll has come down.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/05/29/the-ekos-poll-canadians-warming-to-the-idea-of-coalition-government/

[Boston Bread]

Ipsos poll apparently has
31 (-4 from last poll)
31 (-2)
30 (+5)
And the NDP at 41% in QC, and 25% for LPC, 20% Bloc, only 11% CPC!

http://globalnews.ca/news/2029234/ndps-national-surge-due-to-popularity-in-quebec-not-post-alberta-honeymoon-poll/