Well I'm pleasantly surprised.
I hate the Liberals as much as the next guy, but Liberals finishing in third probably means another Conservative majority government.
Not necessarily. If the Liberals end up in the teens again and the Conservatives somehow capture just shy of 40% of the vote, then sure. But I don't think either of those things are likely to happen again. Trudeau isn't a great leader, but he's still more popular at the end of the day than the Liberal leaders have been for a decade and there's been more than enough built-up backlash over the course of the many Conservative governments that I doubt Stephen Harper can pull that number again. The Conservatives haven't been near 40% since the end of 2011 and have just been hovering around the low thirties for a really long time.
Of course Canada is wildly unpredictable and the election is months away, so all of this is nearly meaningless, but still. The Cons got a majority because of two factors, not just the Liberal collapse to sub-19%; they also got 40% of the vote. At least one of those things isn't likely to happen again, probably both. And scaremongering about the inexperienced, unexpected NDP isn't likely to work as well the second time around after a full term of opposition and the ability for the NDP to claim they represent everyone from Alberta to Quebec.
I have my doubt about the ability for the NDP to form a government on their own, of course, and I'm an endless pessimist, but I feel pretty safe in feeling like another Conservative majority is pretty unlikely. But again. Canada.
