Canadian federal election - 2015

[MaxQue]

Also Trudeau is a noxious prettyboy who wouldn't even be a serious contender in his own riding if it wasn't for his last name. I'd vote NDP or Green before him.

Papineau is still a stong place for NDP Liberals. He gets huge majorities in Parc-Extension and Saint-Michel, both immigrant areas which weren't there when his father was PM. He get clobbered and is a distant third in Villeray, through. It's a trendy hipster neighbourhood, which vote for QS provincially, so (but they have a Liberal MNA because they are paired with uber-Liberal Parc-Extension).

Through, as Villeray is growing, I wouldn't feel safe if I was him, it's not tranding in the right direction for him.

[MaxQue]

Mulcair's more likely insofar as he's more likely to have a "star" challenger making claims to Outremont's "Liberal history" (would Cauchon try here, or elsewhere?)

Keep in mind that under redistribution Outremont loses anglo and allophone areas in the west that are where the Liberals do best in that riding - and gains areas of the Plateau that are heavily francophone Quebec Solidaire territory that would likely go 80% Mulcair against a Liberal.

It also loses the swing areas around McGill University. I think than Mulcaur could lose the Côte-des-Neiges and Outremont areas but still win thanks to the Plateau (since he will win huge there, I even think than NDP won the Plateau parts of Outremont in 2006!).

[MaxQue]

Bloc has been crushed too much to come back. They only have 5 MPs, their leader is outside of the Commons, they totally fell off the radar.

[MaxQue]

However, I don't think support for sovereignty in Quebec is completely dead yet, the Bloc voters might be just hiding behind the Liberals and the NDP in the opinion polls hoping for the Bloc to gain momentum so they can switch back. Hopefully they don't resurface, that would be very, very bad news for the center-left.

My parents are hardcore soveignists, but they vote NDP.
They are saying than independance will be done at Quebec City, not Ottawa. Independance lived before the Bloc and will live after the Bloc.

They are saying than, if we are stuck in Canada, as well try to improve it instead of propping an party which can't win, which only helps the Conservatives.

[MaxQue]

Senate reform is in no way a left-wing policy. Harper attempted to reform the Senate, the Senate knocked back his Bill, he has subsequently appointed to the Senate people who support this policy. Senate reform doesn't sit on the left-right axis.

Anyways, it's a complicated, since provinces are claiming than, since the Senate composition is defined in the Constitution, the approval of the provincial governments is needed for any Senate reform.

For once, Harper did the right thing, that is referring the question to the Supreme Court.

[MaxQue]

Earl, I've mentioned in the past that you and I agree on the desired outcome of Senate reform. Actually, there is a good article that appeared about a week or two ago about reforming the Queensland Parliament. I think I agree with everything the author wrote. The state upper house was abolished back in the 1920s, and meant that majority governments (particularly those with large majorities) have been able to do pretty much anything. The article proposes bringing in a smaller Lower House, re-creating an Upper House, and electing the Upper House by PR.

The problem is than there is a custom than Senate doesn't block legislation passed by the House. So, it's not even useful as a counter-weigh to majorities.

[MaxQue]

Could I ask how the boundary changes are coming along (and by association calculation of the notionals from 2011 as well)?

The notionals are usually calculated by Elections Canada, once the map is finalised in all provinces. For now, it's finished in Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Manitoba and Alberta.

Ontario, Quebec, Saskatchewan and British Columbia are left (the three biggest provinces and the one which current map is a blatant gerrymanderer and than Government is fighting to keep).

Official website: http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?document=home&lang=e

[MaxQue]

Two things.

One, the ridings in Quebec, are in the Montreal suburbs, not on the Island.
For Saskatchewan, NDP throught than the urban vote would outweight the rural vote, which was true until the right-wing union.

[MaxQue]

Quebec:The Bloc is at a historic low of 17%. Interesting here though, the Liberals seem to already be hitting their ceiling at roughly 41%, and the NDP are already recovering, going from 26 to 28 percent in the last month.

Good. It seems than waves are going quickly in Quebec than elsewhere. Bloc is going nowhere, but it's not surprising given than they are nowhere in medias.

[MaxQue]

In Quebec, voters tend to go with personality to a great degree, and Trudeau is simply much more of a personality than Mulcair.

No. Most people I talked with (and it's including usual Liberal voters) see Trudeau as lacking substance. Good-looking and talking, but a bit of an intellectual lightweight.

[MaxQue]

Taking a guess at Quebec

Liberals win the popular vote by 5ish pts, but tie the NDP in seats because their efficiency sucks.
Bloc holds onto a couple seats due to popular incumbents/vote splits.
Tories hold onto Beauce & Roberval-Lac St. Jean (assuming Lebel runs again).

Quebec will look something like this

PLC: 37
NPD: 37
BQ: 2
PCC: 2

I highly doubt the Tories will lose seats. I suspect they will pick up a few. The Tories usually poll at or around their (already low) 2011 numbers.  The NDP and (sometimes) the Bloc are polling lower, and the Liberals higher. Liberals aren't likely pulling all that many votes off island (though who knows for sure), but could very well pull enough votes in NDP-Tory Marginals to flip some of them back to the Tories

NDP-Tory marginals, in Quebec? There is perhaps 2 or 3 of them. When Tories finished 2nd, they were usually a distant 2nd.

[MaxQue]

Taking a guess at Quebec

Liberals win the popular vote by 5ish pts, but tie the NDP in seats because their efficiency sucks.
Bloc holds onto a couple seats due to popular incumbents/vote splits.
Tories hold onto Beauce & Roberval-Lac St. Jean (assuming Lebel runs again).

Quebec will look something like this

PLC: 37
NPD: 37
BQ: 2
PCC: 2

I highly doubt the Tories will lose seats. I suspect they will pick up a few. The Tories usually poll at or around their (already low) 2011 numbers.  The NDP and (sometimes) the Bloc are polling lower, and the Liberals higher. Liberals aren't likely pulling all that many votes off island (though who knows for sure), but could very well pull enough votes in NDP-Tory Marginals to flip some of them back to the Tories

NDP-Tory marginals, in Quebec? There is perhaps 2 or 3 of them. When Tories finished 2nd, they were usually a distant 2nd.

it's true that there were a handful, but if we're talking about a universe were the NDP are taking only 75% or so of their 2011 vote-haul, and the tories are taking 90-110% then a number of those seats around Quebec city come into play

It would need to be closer of 67% than of 75%. A typical score for Quebec area is 45 NDP 30 CPC. There is Louis-Saint-Laurent (2%) and Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup (109 votes) which were close. Else, it's in the 45-30 scale described earlier. It's very wierd.

EDIT: Forgot Jonquière-Alma at roughly 80%.

[MaxQue]

Coop maybe, no more than that. We've only had one formal coalition - which ended apocalyptically for everyone involved and nearly the country.

Are you referring to the "unionists" of WWI?

[MaxQue]

Seems rather unfair to change the rules as the campaign is starting. They can change for them for the election after this one (whether that's 2016 or 2019), but I think, for 2015, Mario Beaulieu, Jean-François Fortin, and Elizabeth May should all be included along with the top three.

I doubt than Mario Beaulieu would go to the English debate if included.

[MaxQue]

I found a rogue pixel in Edmonton-Wetaskiwin. It's been fixed. I also made a minor change on the main map for around Saskatoon (no change to inset). There may have been one other change, I forget. Anyway, if you previously downloaded this map, please update.


Also, here is the 2011 Results Map. I'm about to commence work on Conservative/NDP/Liberal vote share maps, but they will be over the next few days. Results as provided by Pundits' Guide because Elections Canada provided notional figures based on ridings they provided, prior to the Parliament making a few changes (and since I didn't know the extent of the changes, I didn't want to use their figures. Anyway, here are the overall results:

If I remember well, Election Canada figures were pretty lousy, too, upsetting all parties (I think they didn't used polls, they used the flawed logic than if 60% of a riding is moved to another, this transfer 60% of the votes of every party in said riding.

[MaxQue]

That's probably 9 or 10 too much seats for them. He also apparently wants me to have engineer Léandre Gervais as an MP (Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou).

[MaxQue]

Teddy is obviously on some sort of drug. Our polling doesn't show "Others" at a statistically significant percentage anywhere in Quebec, though we have yet to probe F+D by name.

Indeed. Best case scenario for F et D is winning Fortin's seat off his personal vote.

Quebec MPs rarely have much of a "personal vote".

It happened in the remote areas in the past. Guy St-Julien, André Harvey, the ever astonishing Nancy Charest (which had a personal vote despite being a former MNA)...

Negative personal vote is more common, through.

[MaxQue]

Another Winnipeg Conservative MP won't be running in the next election
Joy Smith is calling it quits


http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/Joy-Smith-leaving-federal-politics-288403021.html?cx_navSource=d-top-story

Good riddance. She was one of the most extreme social conservative and was waging a war or pornography, without much success.

[MaxQue]

Gordo? Would be an interesting pick, but I've heard that his expense accounts at the London High Commission were a little large for him to be so quickly welcomed.  He would make a good Tory Candidate among the more affluent voters of the riding, though it is important to note that while the Shaunessey voters take up a lot of space, the vast majority of voters in the riding are in apartments and multi-unit dwellings, and are much less amenable to the Tories then they were to the BC Liberals

That being said, Campbell is of amorphous politics federally.  Whether he voted for Joyce Murray or Deborah Meredith is purposely unknown. He's a technocrat above all things. Among his acts as premier was to more-or-less prohibit federal political activity among BC Liberal MLAs, staff, and officials after some of the Martinites working for the government got out of hand.

Could he end off pulling a reverse "David Emerson"?

[MaxQue]

Next nominations meetings aren't until Saturday:

-In Abitibi—Témiscamingue, QC (MaxQue territory) the BQ will be nominating journalist Yvon Moreau. The NDP has already nominated its MP, Christine Moore and the Liberals have nominated executive director Claude Thibault.

My riding is Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou, not Abitibi-Témiscamingue.

Where do you get all these dates?

[MaxQue]

Next nominations meetings aren't until Saturday:

-In Abitibi—Témiscamingue, QC (MaxQue territory) the BQ will be nominating journalist Yvon Moreau. The NDP has already nominated its MP, Christine Moore and the Liberals have nominated executive director Claude Thibault.

My riding is Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou, not Abitibi-Témiscamingue.

Where do you get all these dates?

No both of those riding's exist http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=qc&dir=now/reports&document=index&lang=e; Romeo Saganash in all likelihood will be the NDP Candidate in Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou

I'm quite aware of that, I was just saying to Earl than Abitibi-Témiscamingue isn't my riding, like he said in his message. Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou is my riding and yes, Saganash will run there, nomination meeting is soon.

[MaxQue]

Pfft, all of Abitibi is "MaxQue territory" as far as I'm concerned.

The dates are available at the pundit's guide site.

I have good knowledge of Amos and Rouyn-Noranda in Abitibi-Témiscamingue, decent knowledge of Témiscamingue, but dismal one of La Sarre area.

I'm just very surprised than they hold it now, since the Amos area political focus is on Amos mayoral by-election on February 15 (and the two council vacancies).

[MaxQue]

BQ leader Mario Beaulieu will be running in La Pointe-de-l'Ile, an NDP held riding in working class/nationalist stronghold in the east end of Montreal.

Seems reasonable.

If I had to pick an ideal non-Bloc held riding, I'd probably pick Manicougan, but Beaulieu is from Montreal, so a working class seat there is a good idea.

No. Manicouagan wouldn't vote for someone which is not from Côte-Nord region or has no link with the area.

[MaxQue]

Through, I expect Bloc to poll very poorly in Gaspésie, since the leader of "Forces et Démocratie" is from that region, through.

The Bloc goal of at least 10 seats (and 30 to 40 ideally) isn't realistic.

[MaxQue]

^ He is.

Q for Max: do you think Boulerice might be interested in leadership at some point?

I can't say for sure, I'm too far from Montreal, but I'm pretty sure than if the next leader is from English Canada, he will be most likely Deputy Leader.

I would say he might be interested in leadership, but won't run to replace Mulcair (or if he does, it will be to raise his profile outside Quebec, a bit like Nathan Cullen or Niki Ashton did last time).