Canadian federal election - 2015

[Holmes]

In 2015, let's all vote for beautiful hair.

Anyway, not paying attention to this (or whatever little there is to pay attention to) until the actual campaign is announced. Actually, if all goes according to plan, I'll be living in California by the time this election happens, but I'll be cheering Mulcair on from afar.

[Holmes]

How long will it take for Trudeau to blame Adams' inevitable loss on the NDP?

[Holmes]

Trudeau would only form a coalition with the NDP if the Liberals have more seats than the NDP, and if anyone other than Mulcair were the leader of the NDP. He probably thinks a coalition means that all New Democrats would be under his command.

[Holmes]

Those polls are cool and all. But it's 5 months out. And they're riding polls. So who cares?

[Holmes]

CROP poll of Quebec.



http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201505/21/01-4871568-sondage-crop-le-npd-cartonne-au-quebec.php

[Holmes]

I've just given my model an upgrade in time for the 2015 election. The most amusing thing I noticed is that according to the model the NDP's best seat by vote % is none other than Edmonton-Strathcona

I was going to say that doesn't seem right, but it actually does seem plausible. There might be some seats in Quebec that might be high up too.

[Holmes]

Two Liberals in the territories, eh? Your model thinks Aglukkaq is going down?

Hampton is running in Kenora.

[Holmes]

This isn't looking good for the Liberals.

[Holmes]

This is bittersweet. If the NDP wins government (and it's too soon to tell), I won't even be living in the country anymore anyway. Something I've wanted for a long time and I won't even be able to enjoy it.

[Holmes]

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As an American who knows embarrassing little about Canadian politics what would be the outcome if this was the final result of the federal election? Also what if CPC had 126 seats to NDP 124?

The Libs, Green and Bloc would decide who to prop up as PM. They would govern under the constraints of a minority government.

[Holmes]

What makes the Atlantic so pro-Grit btw?

It was pretty pro-NDP before Trudeau was elected as leader and Harper reformed EI. Then Trudeau became leader and things changed.quickly. Liberals were always strong in PEI and NL, and an unpopular former NDP government in NS is most likely bringing the federal NDP's numbers down im favor of the Libs, just like in Manitoba.

[Holmes]

I wonder if the NDP can win Edmonton-St. Albert if the city votes similarly to how it did provincially.

[Holmes]

Unless Trudeau gets under 19% of the vote, I don't think he should be replaced.

[Holmes]

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/federal-parties-in-dead-heat-in-poll-that-shows-57percent-of-canadians-would-support-a-coalition-government/ar-BBkP6Cr

This article on this poll says as well

The Tories are within a majority

Great news for Harper and the Conservatives

Do you honestly believe that a party would get a majority with only a 1% lead? Or do you really believe what the media is telling you?

[Holmes]

The NDP already beat Duceppe and the Bloc once when they were credible. They can do it again when the Bloc is in worse condition.

[Holmes]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/gilles-duceppe-returns-to-lead-bloc-quebecois/article24893180/?service=mobile

Duceppe not even trying.

[Holmes]

O'Regan doesn't know his own platform.

The Conservatives doing work for the NDP in Newfoundland.

[Holmes]

The NDP surge is fairly recent, so these ads were probably produced before it even began. It's not like they're gonna sit on the ads just because the Liberals are slipping.

[Holmes]

Those Green numbers in Saskatchewan make me laugh.

[Holmes]

I would love for the NDP to take Parry Sound-Muskoka. How does Nippissing look?

[Holmes]

Can the NDP win Edmonton Riverbend without Rajotte, or is it out of their grasp?

[Holmes]

So an NDP government runs through BC, Ontario and Quebec. We all knew that already, though.

[Holmes]

Cool.

Nanos still providing us with the most useless polling data known to man.

[Holmes]

Dead cat's bounce.

[Holmes]

The only real unknown that's in play right now, and it's a big one, is how the NDP taking votes from the Liberals in Ontario benefits the Tories, especially in the GTA. It can be the difference between the Tories winning government or not. We all assume that it will help the Tories, and it's a valid assumption, but we don't really know how effective or ineffective the Conservative vote is when the vote is close. The NDP won a majority of seats in the province in 1990 with a 5% lead over the Liberals.  Anything can happen and it can lead to some weird results.