Canadian federal election - 2015

[RogueBeaver]

Over the summer, once the new session starts this fall the jury's out. Remember that even Iggy had a 6-month honeymoon before "Mr. Harper, your time is up" in September '09. As for a debate, depends on strategy. He certainly wouldn't come off well in a head-to-head policy confrontation with Harper and/or Mulcair at this stage, but if the strategy is to plead with voters rather than engage his opponents- like Harper usually does- then who knows.

[RogueBeaver]

Liberals on the minority/majority threshold, Tory opposition, NDP in third.

[RogueBeaver]

It depends on the issue. Obviously all provincial parties support 50+1, nothing new there. On the Senate, Couillard won't agree to another constitutional round unless Quebec's issues are dealt with first. Not that I think we're reopening that can of worms anytime soon.

[RogueBeaver]

At any rate, I doubt Trudeau's current popularity here in Quebec, especially tying Mulcair with Francos, has much to do with his constitutional position.

[RogueBeaver]

Conflicting signals from Cabinet right now. My bet is that Harper either tries negotiating with Clark (one signal might be by replacing Oliver with Moore) or quietly drops it.

[RogueBeaver]

On what issue is Trudeau "swinging so far to the right?" If energy, he opposes Northern Gateway, lukewarm on Kinder Morgan, but pushing hard for Keystone and pro-sands generally.

[RogueBeaver]

Greens might try for another BC seat. No idea about the BQ, IMO depends on whether Grits or Dippers split the province like Grit/BQ in the Chretien era or one of them has a clear plurality or majority of seats.

[RogueBeaver]

Focusing on my own turf, CROP pegs the 450 couronne as a Liberal-Dipper dead heat, 38-36. It'll certainly be a hotly contested battleground in 2015.

[RogueBeaver]

Which is weird considering CROP pegs the Liberals ahead 39-29 in ROQ and tied with Francophones. Agreed on the Tory stuff.

[RogueBeaver]

As we just saw in BC, midterm polls are a snapshot in time. We're barely halfway through this Parliament.

[RogueBeaver]

I'm predicting another Tory majority, no idea who will be Opposition Leader.

[RogueBeaver]

I'm predicting another Tory majority, no idea who will be Opposition Leader.

I honestly hope this doesn't happen. Lord knows the ass whooping we'd receive if we're in power 13 years. Tory minority is my prediction right now.

We have a high floor. Back down to '04 levels or slightly less.

[RogueBeaver]

I think ROQ will be very interesting, particularly given recent NDP gains and Mulcair's high popularity here.

[RogueBeaver]

308 has very different projections for QC: 40 NPD, 26 PLC in seats. You can almost never overestimate Grit inefficiency among Francophone voters.

[RogueBeaver]

Coop maybe, no more than that. We've only had one formal coalition - which ended apocalyptically for everyone involved and nearly the country.

[RogueBeaver]

Coop maybe, no more than that. We've only had one formal coalition - which ended apocalyptically for everyone involved and nearly the country.

Are you referring to the "unionists" of WWI?

Yep.

[RogueBeaver]

Yes. The Manitoba and BC coalitions for one. Here in QC we had Mercier's Parti National, but that was basically a renamed PLQ as Mercier's personal outfit with some dissident Tories. UN was supposed to be a coalition... hahaha.

[RogueBeaver]

I posted this in the Discussion thread: controversial Trudeau appointment in BC.


Ontario still a dead heat.

[RogueBeaver]

My guess is that there would be a short interval while leadership changes, then another election within a year or so. No Ontario 1985. Besides, a Grit minority would look to whichever party is most helpful. That could be Tories or NDP depending on the issue.

[RogueBeaver]

Another Liberal nomination kerfuffle, this time in Brandon-Souris, but much more muted than others.

Agreed w/Kheiriddin.

[RogueBeaver]

Libby Davies retiring next year.

[RogueBeaver]

As I said earlier, there's no need for a coalition. All you need is confidence and supply while shopping different things to different parties as required - as has always been the case in minorities. For one thing in a 2015 minority situation at least one leader, most likely two, will be exiting.

[RogueBeaver]

So, will there be 6 podiums on the debate stages?

[RogueBeaver]

We've had 5, they won't see 6 as a big deal. As long as it's more like 2008 and less like the Chretien-era debates. Though unlike then, I don't think we'll have major linguistic issues.

1993: http://www.cbc.ca/player/Digital+Archives/Politics/Elections/Leaders'+Debates+1968-2011/ID/1848457848/

1997: http://www.cbc.ca/player/Digital+Archives/Politics/Elections/Leaders'+Debates+1968-2011/ID/1848407405/

[RogueBeaver]

I've been out of the loop for a few months. At this point what are the odds Harper steps down before the election?

Still virtually nil.