Canadian federal election - 2015

[lilTommy]

Ha! There are no famous Canadian cricketers. A coup nonetheless, considering I'm not aware of any athletes who have ever run for the NDP.

If your are south asian (Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi) anything cricket would be known to you, its become a very local ethnically focused sport in TO.

Chris Wilson who was an Olympic wrestler ran for the BCNDP last year http://www.straight.com/blogra/358161/former-wrestler-chris-wilson-pins-punk-rocker-joe-keithley-ndp-nomination
... that's the only professional or former pro who I can think of right now

[lilTommy]

Whoa... NDP MP Glen Thibeault is going to run for the OLP in the Sudbury by-election
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/12/16/ndp_mp_defects_to_run_for_wynnes_liberals_in_sudbury.html%C2%A0

Wonder what the heck happened there! That's a pretty extreme move, I could understand if he had an issue with Mulcair to run for the ONDP but to jump ship.
Its a risky move, Glen now has to run under all the OLP baggage and recent bad news around their messes and the whole nomination issue (offering the former candidate "something" to not contest) AND he will face the same ire and hate that Hyer is facing for jumping ship. Big grab for the OLP but I don't know if that will work, the NDP needs a pretty strong candidate now provincially...

[lilTommy]

Wow I didn't know the Greens had had such a strong showing in Yukon ! Yet they seem to be nearly absent from territorial politics. How did they manage that ?

Territorial politics are extremely candidate based.

Weak NDP vote and a strong green candidate. I believe they came in Third (the Greens), going back to 2008. The NDP had been very weak territorialy at that time as well the party was in relative disarray by the looks of it. They have since rebuilt themselves and are the opposition in the territory.
Depends on who they run; I'm hearing former Green Party of Ontario leader Frank de Jong might run for the Yukon nod

[lilTommy]

I'm hearing rumours Jim Cuddy, Blue Rodeo fame is going to run for the NDP?

https://twitter.com/GetachewS/status/549990342528090112

That guy http://www.huffingtonpost.com/samuel-getachew/ isn't very NDP friendly from what i've read of of his writings on HuffPo. But I've heard some chatter on Rabble too that Cuddy will run, possibly St. Paul's (not the best for the NDP, University-Rosedale would be better is Jennifer Hollett decides to run in Spadina-Fort York)

[lilTommy]

The NDP might win Brampton East with Gurpeet Dhillon, but I wouldn't bet on it right now.  Malton itslelf isn't that big, and is the only part of the new riding that transferred from Bramalea-Gore-Malton.

Dhillon just won a seat on Brampton city council, not sure if hes ready or willing to jump off council and run another campaign for the third time in less then a year (June ON election and Oct Municipal).
Part of the success of the NDP was Singh and Dhillon as candidates, the NDP will need to field a strong candidate to really be in play, even with the recent success in the area both last federal and provincially (again much credit needs to go out to Singh himself)

[lilTommy]

Next nominations meetings aren't until Saturday:

-In Abitibi—Témiscamingue, QC (MaxQue territory) the BQ will be nominating journalist Yvon Moreau. The NDP has already nominated its MP, Christine Moore and the Liberals have nominated executive director Claude Thibault.

My riding is Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou, not Abitibi-Témiscamingue.

Where do you get all these dates?

No both of those riding's exist http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=qc&dir=now/reports&document=index&lang=e; Romeo Saganash in all likelihood will be the NDP Candidate in Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou

Well crap, "Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, SK the Liberals will be nominating Lawrence Joseph" - that's a real shame for the NDP, After presenting some strong candidates so far, he would have had the best chance at winning. Any word on who the NDP will nominate?

for those counting this is the third time an NDP candidate switched to the Liberals in this riding... Joan Beatty in 2008 who was a former NDP MLA, Rick Laliberte was a former NDP MP who went Liberal (sitting MP) and now Lawrence Joseph.

[lilTommy]

Next nominations meetings aren't until Saturday:

-In Abitibi—Témiscamingue, QC (MaxQue territory) the BQ will be nominating journalist Yvon Moreau. The NDP has already nominated its MP, Christine Moore and the Liberals have nominated executive director Claude Thibault.

My riding is Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou, not Abitibi-Témiscamingue.

Where do you get all these dates?

No both of those riding's exist http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=qc&dir=now/reports&document=index&lang=e; Romeo Saganash in all likelihood will be the NDP Candidate in Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou

I'm quite aware of that, I was just saying to Earl than Abitibi-Témiscamingue isn't my riding, like he said in his message. Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou is my riding and yes, Saganash will run there, nomination meeting is soon.

Oh sorry my bad... I should read a little closer, still stunned by Lawrence Joseph i suppose...

[lilTommy]

Jenny Kwan BCNDP MLA is entering the race for Vancouver East
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/mla-jenny-kwan-to-seek-federal-ndp-nomination-in-vancouver-east-1.2931271

Its a BCNDP battle, pretty epic one too. Also running is MLA Mable Elmore, both are strong female, minority candidates which every party loves, both are rather left leaning just as Libby is so that tradition should continue. The riding is pretty NDP resilient, and either candidate will hold the riding in all likelihood.
In my opinion Kwan would be best to win VanEast NDP nom; she has caused herself enough friction within the BCNDP (one of the bakers dozen who helps push Carole James out as leader) and has been there since 91. Her seat is probably one of if not the safest BCNDP seat so this would be an opportunity for renewal in Vancouver, some fresh new blood in that seat. She would be a new-ish face federally, with in-government experience and from the left of the party.
Elmore is considered to be a star herself, but has only been an MLA since 2005 (only) and has a much less polarizing affect on the BCNDP.

[lilTommy]

Sana Hassania (Verchères-les-Patriotes), former NDP MP (she left over Gaza) and less present MP in the House wants to run as Liberal or Forces et Démocratie at the next election.

She left over gaza and would join the Liberals? odd, their stance is more pro-israel then the NDPs no?

[lilTommy]

Some Quebec Dipper freshmen might lose renomination.

Most of this is actually good news, and rather then a fight to unseat an incumbent as we saw with Rob Anders in Calgary its really a sign of how well the growth of the NDP has taken route in the province, with newer supporters going up against some old time members since they think the NDP is the vehicle to win, something we'd expect to see with the Liberals who are polling well.
Francine Raynault (Joliette) and Marc-André Morin (Laurentides-Labelle) come from long history's of working within the party or being supporters and are being challenged by some strong local people in a Councillor and a young Doctor.
It is interesting to note that the younger MPs have mostly been renominated as Funke points out.
Tyrone Benskin (Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs,) is the only one of note that might have a negative push. Initially considered a moderate star, he had some tax evasion baggage that knocked him right out of the front bench. I'm not that familiar with the battle here but my outside take is Allison Turner might have the advantage over Vincent Héritier, but three way nom will be interesting to see.

What we should note is that the new faces of the NDP candidates, are robust and a strong bunch, again re-enforcing my comment that the depth of the NDP in Quebec is showing:
- EI rights advocate and lawyer Hans Marotte in Saint-Jean (where Tarik Brahmi is retiring),
- Lac Simon municipal councillor Chantel Crête in the new riding of Argenteuil-Le Petit Nation,
- economist Réjean Bellemare in Repentigny (where Jean-François Larose left the caucus),
- psychologist Marie-Josée Lemieux in the new riding of Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, 
- posties local president Karine Trudel in Jonquière (where Claude Patry left the caucus),
- former Bloc MP Maria Mourani in her riding of Ahuntsic-Cartierville

[lilTommy]

I'm not sure that Francine Raynault or Marc-Andre Morin have such "long histories" of working within the NDP. They are both quite old - but as far as i know they were both last minute place holder names on the ballot for the NDP in 2011 who got swept in with the orange crush - i could be wrong but I was under the impression that they were people who had never been all that active (if at all) in the party prior to running.

Funke writes "...long-time NDP activist Francine Raynault, who finally ran in 2011, taking her turn after supporting earlier runs by her husband in the same seat. "
not sure about Marc-Andre Morin, but I've assumed a similar "long time activist" he was an environmental one, since at the start of the 2011 the NDP were still not seen as a huge threat in Quebec from what I remember outside of a handful of targeted seats

[lilTommy]

So why is there an aversion to coalitions in Canadian politics?

...Basically no experience with them as a working government, vilification of the idea by mostly Conservatives would be the two that jump to mind.

I think the closest thing to a coalition we had federally was in 1960's when the Liberals ran minority governments with the support of the NDP... but that's not a coalition. We have some history of minority governments but rarely was there coalitions.
Ontario 85' was a coalition of sorts I think between the Liberals and NDP...

I actually can't think of any coalitions in Canada?

[lilTommy]

Goodbye Dan Harris!

That's a real shame if Blair runs against Harris; I've worked with Dan years back when we were both in ONDY, very down to earth hard working guy, he really stuck it out and ran for the party 4/5 times and built his support the hard way, the grassroots way.
Cash Is i much better shape, i'd still give him the advantage but depends on who this "prominent" person is I suspect.

[lilTommy]

Writer/activist David McLaren wins the NDP nomination in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound.

Today is the NDP nomination in Hamilton Centre. Incumbent MP David Christopherson will be acclaimed. He joins the 2011 Liberal candidate, Anne Tennier.

Wasn't Bratina running for the Liberals in Hamilton Centre? or is it another Hamilton riding...

[lilTommy]

Lawyer Rosannie Filato won the NDP nomination in Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel, QC yesterday. Kind of surprising it was a contested race in a safe Liberal riding.  Maybe something to do with the rape allegations against the Liberal incumbent, Massimo Pacetti? The Tories already have their candidate in the riding, Jean-Philippe Fournier who was the provincial Conservative candidate in last year's provincial election in Blainville.

Today is the Liberal race in Vaudreuil-Soulanges, QC. There are 5 candidates running. NDP incumbent Jamie Nicholls is also running, as is the Tory candidate Marc Boudreau, who ran in this riding in 2008 and 2011.

It is surprising, and she is a rather strong candidate for a Liberal Stronghold, good for the NDP. I think there is some chatter that the Liberals might not let Pacetti run under their banner.... which could lead to him running as an Indie which makes this a much more interesting race. I've heard that Liza Frulla (former MP for Jeanne-Le Ber 04-06) might be thrown in to the riding... all chatter, nothing official I think.

[lilTommy]

Farheen Khan – a Peel-based social worker, author and community activist – will be the NDP candidate from Mississauga Centre. Nomination will be Sunday. They mention a Special event, not sure what that means but the nomination falls on Int'l Women's day

http://www.mississauga.com/community-story/5461064-farheen-khan-to-get-ndp-nomination-for-mississauga-centre-race/?previewkey=EAAAAIzi2bF6tx0T7EO2D6%2bptLy05kKAn44S8aJI7vKwa%2bZM

[lilTommy]

Pierre Jacob retiring for health reasons.

Jacob was very old and low profile. The NDP likely has a far better chance of holding Brome-Mississquoi with a new higher profile candidate than if he tried to run again. Its all good. Apparently one of the people running for the nomination is Yves Mondoux who is a local TV personality/columnist

Yup Yves is running again (he ran for the NDP in 08 in Sherbrooke)
http://www.journalleguide.com/Actualit%C3%A9s/Politique/2015-03-20/article-4084154/Pas-de-second-mandat-pour-Pierre-Jacob-dans-BromeMissisquoi/1

not sure if it was mentioned, Tim Reid who looks to be a lawyer is the Liberal candidate.

[lilTommy]

Jenny Kwan won the nomination.

Probably the best outcome for both the BCNDP and the NDP

[lilTommy]

My list of potential NDP replacements for Jenny Kwan's Vancouver-Mount Pleasant provincial seat.

I'm not sure if the rule requiring a woman to run to replace an outgoing NDP MLA is still in place or, if it is, if it applies to byelections.  Like the rule or dislike it, there is no question it has achieved its goal.  The B.C NDP caucus has gone from 7 of 33 NDP MLAs being women in 2005 to 14 of 34 MLAs in 2013.

If men are allowed to run (and potential women candidates as well)
1.Raymond Louie, City Councillor.  Would likely clear the field.

2.Meena Wong, COPE Mayoral nominee in 2014.  Federal NDP nominee in Vancouver South in 2011

3.George Chow, former City Councillor 2005-2011, Provincial NDP nominee in Vancouver-Langara in 2013 and NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver-Fraserview in 2013.

4.Ellen Woodsworth, former COPE City Councillor

5.Niki Sharma, 2014 Vision Vancouver nominee for City Council.

6.Trevor Loke, Former Parks Commissioner 2008?-2014, defeated for reelection by 1,500 votes

7.Aaron Jasper, Former Parks Commissioner and Board Chair 2008?-2014

8.Sarah Blyth, Former Parks Commissioner, 2008-2011, 2015 Candidate for Federal NDP nomination in Vancouver-Quadra.

9.Ken Clement, Former School Trustee, 2008?-2014, defeated for reelection by 250 votes

10.Gwen Giesbrecht, 2015 NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver East, 2011 COPE nominee for School Board and 2014 nominee for School Board

11.Scott McLean, 2015 NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver East

If I was the party, and I believe they do require by-elections to be female only contests if the MLA was a woman (I actually think it applied to male MLAs who were retiring as well no?), any rate, If i were the BCNDP i'd prefer a woman from the Chinese or Asian community; meaning Meena Wong or Niki Sharma jump to the top.
Is Wong thinking of running in Vancouver South again? she has gained much more notoriety since running for mayor, that would definitely help with some personal vote, but Van S is more Liberal/Tory of a battle even in 2011 (although it was competitive for all three). She would have a guaranteed (as close as you can to anyway) ticket to the Legislature if she were to run and win the nomination in Van-MP

[lilTommy]

"If I was the party, and I believe they do require by-elections to be female only contests if the MLA was a woman (I actually think it applied to male MLAs who were retiring as well no?), any rate, If i were the BCNDP i'd prefer a woman from the Chinese or Asian community; meaning Meena Wong or Niki Sharma jump to the top.
Is Wong thinking of running in Vancouver South again? she has gained much more notoriety since running for mayor, that would definitely help with some personal vote, but Van S is more Liberal/Tory of a battle even in 2011 (although it was competitive for all three). She would have a guaranteed (as close as you can to anyway) ticket to the Legislature if she were to run and win the nomination in Van-MP"

Meena Wong finished a distant third in Vancouver South in 2011 with around 23% of the vote.

She would be a decent candidate for the provincial NDP but there would undoubtedly be some friction with her having run for COPE in the 2014 municipal election against the NDP favored Vision Vancouver.

Well I did say the Riding is more Liberal/Tory, but 23% in that kind of riding where the NDP candidate at that time was not as high profile as her opponents or as she is now, wasn't too bad.

Is there really that much friction between Vision and COPE? COPE used to be the defacto NDP aligned group, and probably still represents the left of the party. For this riding it would it not be an advantage or at least not a huge problem.

[lilTommy]

Right now, I'd say Oshawa is actually a Liberal target, but they might abandon it if the NDP decides to target it as well.

Why do you think the Liberals are targeting a seat where they got 7% of the vote last time?

I could see the Liberals target the other 4 Durham ridings (Ajax, Pickering-Uxebridge, Whitby and Durham) but Oshawa? I don't see it. Based on their ON14 performance, they have a very strong shot at all at least two of those (Ajax and Pickering-Uxebridge)

[lilTommy]

Thunder Bay Current River ward Councillor Andrew Foulds Is seeking the NDP nomination in Thunder Bay - Superior North

http://www.tbnewswatch.com/News/369493/Federal_run

The Councillor was also the NDP candidate in the last provincial election as well. He will face NDP-turned-Green MP Bruce Hyer and Liberal antipoverty activist Patty Hajdu (Liberals obviously actively trying to court the NDP vote). 

[lilTommy]

It should be noted the provincially the NDP has won both Thunder Bay seats off and on since 1963! In fact Port Arthur (now Thunder Bay-Superior) was NDP continuously from 1967 to 1995 and the federal Port Arthur/TB seat was NDP 1957-1965, 1984-1988 and then 2008-to the present (given that Hyer was elected as a New Democrat)...so I'm not where anyone gets this idea that its a "Liberal town"...looks to me more like a highly competitive place!

Its a good point to make that TB used to be competitive (and still is for the NDP), also if you include in the discussion that most of the rural area that is now in the TB riding's was in the old riding Lake Nipigon which was NDP for the riding's entire existence 67-99 it buoys the argument, also Rainy River which oddly enough was only held from 87-99. But Hatman's point is true now more then ever, the NDP does much better in the rural areas where the economy is based more on resources, working class jobs. But the cities (TB, Sudbury, SSM) are where you see the wealth, the professionals and the business sector thrive much more.

[lilTommy]

Told you. But then again, I have been aware of these numbers for the last few days

WOW, i'm impressed... but does this poll include the period where the Liberals announced their tax plans?
Its a mix of NDP riding the Alberta wave, a C51 backlash against the CPC/LPC... relatively broad good news coverage of the NDP (possibly some provincial influence from Ontario where we've seen some very strong numbers from the NDP as well)

[lilTommy]

The Quebec numbers are what's striking. The results for all 4 parties in Quebec are in 2011 territory. Which means 50+ seats for the NDP there. The NDP vote is actually more efficient than the Liberal vote overall, so I think a tight NDP-Con race is slightly worse for Harper than a tight Lib-Con race.

BC and Ontario will decide if a CON majority is possible. If Conservatives get <40% in either it's not possible.

Recent Polling in BC has the NDP in the lead 35% vs 29% for the CPC (from what I recall, came out a day or so ago)