Canadian federal election - 2015

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As an American who knows embarrassing little about Canadian politics what would be the outcome if this was the final result of the federal election? Also what if CPC had 126 seats to NDP 124?

Traditionally, in a tie, the incumbent gets first crack at forming a government. Historically, in either of the scenarios you posited, the Tories would form government and try to bribe other parties to get their bills passed. Eventually they'd fail, the government would fall and there would be another election.

However, the most likely situation today would have the NDP & Liberals working out some sort of arrangement (either a coalition or something less formal).

I don't think Harper is the type of person who will accept such a result as a loss for him quite so easily. In the final week before the vote as the polls make these indications, he would be relentlessly attacking the NDP as the Bolsheviks reincarnated and Mulcair as Lenin's illegitimate great-grandson, while making noises about how the Liberals have a storied place in Canada's history and how Justin Trudeau himself isn't too bad a guy, and sending feelers out to the Liberal Party.

After the vote, he'll try in vain to somehow convince the Liberals to support his throne speech, as long as he - and he alone - remains leader. And only after that fails, will he grudgingly resign, convinced he lost because of the Liberals' refusal to support him and not because of the election itself.

But, far more likely, is enough anti-Harper voters will move towards the party with more momentum during the campaign, giving it a strong mandate on its own.

Harper will resign if he gets anything less than another majority, he would've done same in 2011. I doubt the opposition parties will be more friendly to Kenney or Moore than they would Harper, and at any rate a leadership process + voter considerations means opposition would want to vote down a Throne Speech as easiest route. If Harper gets a plurality, that is.

Given Harper's sheer dominance of his own party, I don't see it remaining cohesive after he steps down. And if the defeat is particularly devastating (i.e. <25% of the national vote) then the party is definitely set for open civil war. The worst part is that all the most promising contenders in the leadership race have already resigned. Ironically, Jim Prentice would be an excellent candidate had he not single-handedly destroyed the Alberta PC Party.

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There definitely will be plenty of soul-searching about why the "Unite the Right" movement, originally intended to cement itself as Canada's dominant governing party, ended up with its worst result since confederation (and even now it's already polling close to that dubious level). Some will claim it's because Harper moved too far to the right, while others blame Harper for becoming opportunist and straying from the party values. And inevitably this will lead to a blame game.

In any case, whomever is the new leader would be wise not to force an early election (assuming there's no majority). Canadians tend to take a dim view of parties who force early elections just 'cus. And the third party is extremely unlikely to allow this to happen given that antipathy towards Harper will be strong for years to time (unless the governing party was found to have eaten kittens and puppies, or something).

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Do the Bloc exclusively steal off left-leaning votes, or does it also get CAQ conservative Francophones who might vote Tory as well?

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/06/ndp-and-mulcair-continue-to-rise/

Judging by the second choice poll, looks like they steal mostly NDP votes.

But this assumes Duceppe *does* steal votes at all. Judging by comments on social media in Quebec so far, the reaction seems to be pretty horrible outside of the hard sovereigntists. It's one thing to think the party was better under Duceppe (before 2011, that is). It's another to actually want to see him come back.

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^ I don't think so. It's one thing to like Duceppe as a person. It's another to so transparently indicate the Bloc is out of ideas.

Hard nationalists will vote Bloc in any case. Soft nationalist progressives understand that defeating Harper is the more urgent priority. That's why they went NDP in 2011 after all.

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Part of me thinks the Conservatives are continuing to attack the Liberals in order to cause the NDP to surge, allowing them to run a campaign accusing the NDP of being the reincarnation of the Bolsheviks who wish to impose Sharia Law and raise a carbon tax of 200%, or something.

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I asked a version of this question back when the Liberals were the ones competing for the polling lead: If the Conservatives get a plurality of seats, but NDP+Liberal is a majority, is there any chance that the Liberals will prop up an NDP minority government, or are the Liberals bound to let whoever gets a plurality of seats form the government?

I doubt the Liberals will allow the Conservatives to continue governing. Their campaign will have been all about replacing Harper with a fresh start, and Justin will likely get defenestrated by his caucus who would be fearful of the same fate as their UK cousins. And besides, the Liberals and NDP will have both gained seats. There is no popular mandate for the only party which lost seats to govern, at least from the popular perspective.

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I doubt the Liberals will allow the Conservatives to continue governing. Their campaign will have been all about replacing Harper with a fresh start, and Justin will likely get defenestrated by his caucus who would be fearful of the same fate as their UK cousins. And besides, the Liberals and NDP will have both gained seats. There is no popular mandate for the only party which lost seats to govern, at least from the popular perspective.

In that case, I think it probably depends on where each party ends up in the seat count. If the Conservatives end up at 160+, it might be particularly nasty to dislodge them from power. I think the Conservatives will probably need to be held under 150 seats, regardless of where the other parties stand. Of course, this is all a big guess considering the uncharted territory we're in in terms of Canadian politics (and I don't dare underestimate the volatility of the average Canadian voter).

I think it would also depend on their share of the vote.  If the Conservatives get 150+ seats (you said 160) but only get 33% or so of the vote, it would be difficult for them to declare themselves the 'clear winner' even if they do win 40 seats or so more than the second party.

As long as Liberal + NDP >169, the movers appear at 24 Sussex. I doubt the Liberals will allow another minority government, for the simple reason that Harper will use the constant threat of another election to engage in brinkmanship and raise more money from supporters, possibly leading to another majority government. For this reason the Liberals will oppose the throne speech.

It then depends on the seat count. If Liberals and NDP are roughly equal in seats, a coalition would be the most preferable option. If an NDP minority government results, the Liberals will be wise not to push it too hard. Otherwise, the NDP will accuse the Liberals of being so power-hungry they're willing to risk a return of the bad old days.

If the Bloc revives enough so that Con + Bloc > 169, Harper may be tempted to accuse the Liberals and NDP of plotting a coalition with the separatists while making a deal with the Bloc himself. His party caucus would probably rebel, though.

The real nightmare scenario is if Harper responds to his defeat by filling all Senate vacancies with party hacks purely to subvert the incoming government. His personality seems to take defeats very personally, so he won't leave in good taste. The ensuing constitutional crisis would, ironically, give the incoming government enough political power to reopen the constitution and majorly reform the senate, and make the Conservatives (or their successor parties) unelectable for a generation.

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As long as Liberal + NDP >169, the movers appear at 24 Sussex.

Though the optics would be awkward and a little kneejerk if it were CPC with around 165 and NDP and Lib with 85 apiece.  Just saying.

It's still a loss of seats for the Conservatives. A Liberal/NDP coalition would enjoy a stronger popular mandate than it did in 2008 (http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2014/12/it-is-neck-and-neck-as-we-head-into-election-year/), especially since it will not involve the Bloc. And why will Justin risk a caucus revolt and support keeping Steve in 24 Sussex when, as leader of the only party which gained seats, he can move in himself?

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As long as Liberal + NDP >169, the movers appear at 24 Sussex.

Though the optics would be awkward and a little kneejerk if it were CPC with around 165 and NDP and Lib with 85 apiece.  Just saying.

It's still a loss of seats for the Conservatives. A Liberal/NDP coalition would enjoy a stronger popular mandate than it did in 2008 (http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2014/12/it-is-neck-and-neck-as-we-head-into-election-year/), especially since it will not involve the Bloc. And why will Justin risk a caucus revolt and support keeping Steve in 24 Sussex when, as leader of the only party which gained seats, he can move in himself?

That is, if one assumes that it's as cut and dried as "two left parties vs one right party".  *Which it isn't.*  And at 165-85-85 numbers, who's to say that the caucus revolt wouldn't be in the *other* direction?  I mean, to try and assemble a coalition out of *that* circumstance would be as airheadedly twerpy as things get: "oooh, we milquetoasts just *have* to get together to Stop Evil Evil Evil Stephen Harper" in the worst way.  And Harper would stomp the blazes out of such a Coalition Of The Wimps.

Of course, the "Coalition Of The Wimps-ness" reduces with every shave off Harper (i.e. it becomes more plausible in a 135-100-100 circumstance).  Though personally, I feel that even existing Con seat projections are a bit over-pumped-up through projection-from-2011 methodology, i.e. there's more "potential" in more seats than the opposition realizes...

The entire Liberal campaign will have been entirely about providing a safer-than-NDP choice to replace Harper. It's conceivable the Liberals will support a Conservative minority government with a more Red Tory-style leader (so they can claim to have removed Harper), but there aren't any left. And Harper isn't the type of person who will quit unless he was truly forced to.

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Hopefully the NDP will run a star candidate in Papineau. It is - believe it or not - winnable.

But wouldn't Justin have to eat kitten and puppy burgers for him to be in danger in western Montreal?

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Assuming it's an NDP-led minority government, the Liberals will be wise not to be so pushy as to threaten an election every two weeks. They should vote for every NDP budget, while critiquing from the outside. Otherwise, the NDP will try (and probably succeed) to paint the Liberals as being so power-hungry they're willing to risk a return of the Big Bad Tories. They're steadily drip-feed embarrassing information about the Harper government as red meat to their base and to encourage the election of an unelectable Conservative leader.

And once the Liberals *do* force an early election, all the NDP needs to do is appeal for all voters who dislike Harper, run on their relatively moderate record, and win a solid majority (or a strong mandate if FPTP is abolished by then). The Liberal and Conservative leaders resign before 11 PM Eastern time on election night.

Therefore, the Liberals should at least outwardly cooperate with the NDP, while using every vote they disagree with them as an opportunity to distinguish themselves among more moderate voters who share antipathy towards Harper. This places them in a stronger spot to win in 2019.

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Because we all need a good laugh. Interestingly, former Martin Board member Charles Bird supports Mendicino.

I honestly don't know why Eve Adams was placed in a must-win urban riding where she has absolutely no connection. The Liberals should have milked Dimtri for all his dirt on Harper and then allowed Eve to run in an outer 905 riding which is not high on their target list. Somewhere like, say, Milton.

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I honestly don't know why Eve Adams was placed in a must-win urban riding where she has absolutely no connection. The Liberals should have milked Dimtri for all his dirt on Harper and then allowed Eve to run in an outer 905 riding which is not high on their target list. Somewhere like, say, Milton.

Yeah, that was really stupid.  Meanwhile Bill Morneau is being touted as a potential finance minister.  He was initially set to run in Don Valley West until the former MP objected.  Then he was sent to Toronto Centre, which is a terrible fit with the territory north of Bloor lopped off.  Why didn't they run him in Eglinton-Lawrence where he could directly challenge Joe Oliver?

On second thought, maybe Dmitri demanded a must-win seat for Eve in exchange for all his dirt on Harper. And now that Eve has her seat, he can give his dirt at his leisurely pace. Well played, sir.

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Althia Raj saying that the Senate story is untrue.

So it was a trial balloon and the reaction online was so horrible Harper had to cancel it.

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In mildly amusing news: NDP fundraiser letter encourages parents to donate UCCB cheques to NDP.

It would have been an embarrassment had it not been a summer Friday afternoon when even most political junkies don't care.

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New Poll shows Conservatives 38% NDP27% Liberal 25% Is this a new trend or Outlier?

see for yourself
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_federal_election

There's plenty of reason to think this is an outlier.

The 308 poll aggregator weighs this poll more than 2 times any other poll in their average, yet the average comes to an NDP-Conservative tie.
There was a poll showing the Conservatives third from a more experienced pollster the day before.
And the for the pollster, this is their first ever federal poll, so we don't even have any prior polls from this pollster to compare with to see if there is a trend.

'Mainstreet Research' also sounds like the sort of name a hack firm would have.

To be fair, their track record in the Alberta provincial election was relatively good. But there's this snippet from Eric Grenier:

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So, either nothing has happened, or this is the only polling firm to detect the largest swing in polling history, ever, anywhere.

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https://twitter.com/OpAnonDown/status/626875006438539265

Also, for further context:

http://travel.gc.ca/travelling/publications/child-crime

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Baird's response earlier today when asked about this was "no comment", instead of his usual attack-dog style. Where there's smoke...

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Well, calm down everyone. No media reported on it yet, so it may just be a silly Twitter rumour.

Without the video, this is just gossip. Nonetheless, the account *did* leak genuine documents, indicating at least some documents were stolen. Perhaps this nugget is to create attention for more mundane documents they genuinely do possess, in order to muddy the waters. Who knows.

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http://ipolitics.ca/2015/07/23/parties-have-adapted-to-losing-per-vote-subsidy-say-campaign-experts/
While all the national parties have increased fundraising in response to the end of the subsidy, Bloc funding has almost entirely dried up. They simply can't afford to run a decent campaign, thus reducing pressure on the NDP to retain Quebec seats.