UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[DC Al Fine]

How do you rate Naomi Long's chances of retaining her seat?

A good deal less than 50:50, thanks to Fleggate and the efforts of Loyalist paramilitaries in cahoots with the two main Unionist parties to get rid of her. It's the one seat in Northern Ireland which is likely to shift next time.

Only possible fly in the ointment would be if TUV were to stand as a fleggier-than-thou spoiler.

Fleggate?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Belfast pronunciation of 'flag' is 'flegg'.

[Zinneke]

How do you rate Naomi Long's chances of retaining her seat?

A good deal less than 50:50, thanks to Fleggate and the efforts of Loyalist paramilitaries in cahoots with the two main Unionist parties to get rid of her. It's the one seat in Northern Ireland which is likely to shift next time.

Only possible fly in the ointment would be if TUV were to stand as a fleggier-than-thou spoiler.

Fleggate?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fc5L5p6aYyM

Nationalist proposal to take the Union jack down from city hall was approved by Alliance (largely unionist but non-secterian) in order to give them a majority.

[ObserverIE]

How do you rate Naomi Long's chances of retaining her seat?

A good deal less than 50:50, thanks to Fleggate and the efforts of Loyalist paramilitaries in cahoots with the two main Unionist parties to get rid of her. It's the one seat in Northern Ireland which is likely to shift next time.

Only possible fly in the ointment would be if TUV were to stand as a fleggier-than-thou spoiler.

Fleggate?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fc5L5p6aYyM

Nationalist proposal to take the Union jack down from city hall was approved by Alliance (largely unionist but non-secterian) in order to give them a majority.

More exactly, a proposal to fly the Union Jack on the fifteen(?) standard days specified in legislation for flying flags over government buildings, as opposed to flying it 365 days a year.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Peter Hain is standing down in Neath.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bootle MP Joe Benton has given up trying to fight his constituency party, and has opted to retire. He is 81 years old and has held the seat since the second Bootle by-election of 1990. Given that Bootle is one of the safest seats in the country for any party no matter how safety is defined, expect a truly absurd number of applications.

Bootle CLP tends to favour locals and tends to favour social conservatives, but that's not quite a sure thing: in 1979 it selected Allan Roberts who was extremely left-wing and from a suburb of distant Manchester.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Peter Hain is standing down in Neath.

Neath has been Labour since 1922 and has had just four MPs during that period. Longest tenure was twenty six years or so, shortest around nineteen. There has only been one succession in a General Election (in 1964).

[Hifly]

Bootle MP Joe Benton has given up trying to fight his constituency party, and has opted to retire. He is 81 years old and has held the seat since the second Bootle by-election of 1990. Given that Bootle is one of the safest seats in the country for any party no matter how safety is defined, expect a truly absurd number of applications.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

If they make it an AWS I think I will explode!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Salford & Eccles was just made AWS, which may reduce the chances of Bootle being so. Though it has never had a female MP.

[Hifly]

Though it has never had a female MP.

Keep it quiet; don't excite them!

Although if they force it then I hope Claire Curtis-Thomas applies.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interestingly enough, though, some recent AWS decisions have been on seats held by a retiring female MP (i.e. Cynon Valley, Swansea East, Salford & Eccles) rather than chosen on the 'never before' basis.

[afleitch]

Bootle MP Joe Benton has given up trying to fight his constituency party, and has opted to retire. He is 81 years old and has held the seat since the second Bootle by-election of 1990. Given that Bootle is one of the safest seats in the country for any party no matter how safety is defined, expect a truly absurd number of applications.

Bootle CLP tends to favour locals and tends to favour social conservatives, but that's not quite a sure thing: in 1979 it selected Allan Roberts who was extremely left-wing and from a suburb of distant Manchester.

It's that safe, you know it'll end up being a person who owns more than two ties.

[EPG]

Speculation about a possible 2015 gain for the yellows.

[YL]

Speculation about a possible 2015 gain for the yellows.

I don't see it to be honest.  I'd expect most anti-Unionist voters in South Belfast to stick with McDonnell in an FPTP election, even if many of them might be quite sympathetic to Lo and Alliance.

[ObserverIE]

Speculation about a possible 2015 gain for the yellows.

I don't see it to be honest.  I'd expect most anti-Unionist voters in South Belfast to stick with McDonnell in an FPTP election, even if many of them might be quite sympathetic to Lo and Alliance.

Even if it happened (and I generally take Slugger's analyses with a large pinch of salt) the effect of McDonnell voters switching to Lo would most likely be to elect a DUP MP.

[EPG]

They thought similarly about DUP -> Alliance votes in Belfast East in 2010. They reckoned it'd elect Ringland for the UUP. That was on a much bigger gap between second place and Alliance. Sinn Féin will intervene with a candidate in Belfast South in 2015.

Sinn Féin's recent comments suggest they will not stand aside for the SDLP anywhere in 2015. This would itself hurt McDonnell.

It's just about possible to see Alliance with 2 Westminster seats, probably 0, perhaps 1 (though we don't know where!), which is a remarkable state of affairs compared to a decade ago.

[ObserverIE]

They thought similarly about DUP -> Alliance votes in Belfast East in 2010. They reckoned it'd elect Ringland for the UUP. That was on a much bigger gap between second place and Alliance.

I don't remember much RW speculation about Ringland getting in, but I do remember that Long was being supported by Dawn Purvis of the PUP, which gave her a credibility in loyalist areas that won't be there next time.

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Slugger spent the year before the 2010 election bigging up UCUNF, to no RW effect. I just don't give Fealty's analyses much credence: there's always too much wishful thinking about the triumph of moderate unionism over nationalism. On the plus side for Slugger, the insufferably tedious Pete Baker doesn't seem to be around anymore as ubiquitous as he was.

[EPG]

They thought similarly about DUP -> Alliance votes in Belfast East in 2010. They reckoned it'd elect Ringland for the UUP. That was on a much bigger gap between second place and Alliance.

I don't remember much RW speculation about Ringland getting in, but I do remember that Long was being supported by Dawn Purvis of the PUP, which gave her a credibility in loyalist areas that won't be there next time.

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Slugger spent the year before the 2010 election bigging up UCUNF, to no RW effect. I just don't give Fealty's analyses much credence: there's always too much wishful thinking about the triumph of moderate unionism over nationalism. On the plus side for Slugger, the insufferably tedious Pete Baker doesn't seem to be around anymore as ubiquitous as he was.

I don't know what this has to do with Fealty. It's his blog, but every argument can and should be analysed on its own merits rather than dismissing them because of their source. It's too easy a criticism.

Objectively, Robinson was wounded with numerous scandals in 2010 and UCUNF were second. Similarly, McDonnell faces likely SF opposition and an amazing nationalist-immigrant fusion Alliance party candidate, and the DUP are second. UCUNF did not win in 2010, and the DUP may not win in 2015.

[ObserverIE]

They thought similarly about DUP -> Alliance votes in Belfast East in 2010. They reckoned it'd elect Ringland for the UUP. That was on a much bigger gap between second place and Alliance.

I don't remember much RW speculation about Ringland getting in, but I do remember that Long was being supported by Dawn Purvis of the PUP, which gave her a credibility in loyalist areas that won't be there next time.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Slugger spent the year before the 2010 election bigging up UCUNF, to no RW effect. I just don't give Fealty's analyses much credence: there's always too much wishful thinking about the triumph of moderate unionism over nationalism. On the plus side for Slugger, the insufferably tedious Pete Baker doesn't seem to be around anymore as ubiquitous as he was.

I don't know what this has to do with Fealty. It's his blog, but every argument can and should be analysed on its own merits rather than dismissing them because of their source. It's too easy a criticism.

What it has to do with Fealty is the fact that it's his speculation that's forming the basis of this conversation.

And as far as the maths of the situation go, I find it difficult to see unionist voters switching to "an amazing nationalist-immigrant fusion Alliance party candidate" when the DUP are second.

Particularly given that many of these voters would be living in areas like Sandy Row and The Village where considerable, em, "popular", efforts are made to keep out nationalists, immigrants, or indeed any amazing fusion of the two.

McDonnell may be pompous and not a particularly good party leader, but he's not mired in scandal, so I don't see the incentive for SDLP voters to kick him out and run the risk of electing a unionist.

[Citizen Hats]

Am I reading this wrong, or is there actually a non-negligible immigrant population in Northern Ireland? If so, for the love of god, why would anyone immigrate to Northern Ireland?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Northern Ireland is 98.2% white. The largest non-white group is Chinese at 0.3%.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Am I reading this wrong, or is there actually a non-negligible immigrant population in Northern Ireland? If so, for the love of god, why would anyone immigrate to Northern Ireland?

Immigrants end up everywhere.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Belfast has major hospitals (Belfast City Hospital in particular is huge) and a couple of universities.

[ObserverIE]

http://cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/population/2011/Cen2011IrelandNorthernIreland.pdf

Immigrants tend to concentrate in lower-paid service or industrial work. They tend to live in relatively cheap private rented housing.

For demographic reasons, this type of housing tends to be commonest in historically Protestant working-class areas of cities or towns - mainly Belfast, but also towns in a manufacturing/factory farming belt in north Armagh/east Tyrone. (Ironically, quite a lot of this type of housing in these types of area would have been bought up by Southern investors as investment properties during the Tyger years.)

The locals, many of whom have issues with a perception of being "outbred" by others, often tend not to take kindly to the new arrivals.

[EPG]

Exactly right. There is a recognisable belt of Lithuanian settlement stretching across each side of the border - though yes, immigration is a lot lower overall in the north of Ireland.

They thought similarly about DUP -> Alliance votes in Belfast East in 2010. They reckoned it'd elect Ringland for the UUP. That was on a much bigger gap between second place and Alliance.

I don't remember much RW speculation about Ringland getting in, but I do remember that Long was being supported by Dawn Purvis of the PUP, which gave her a credibility in loyalist areas that won't be there next time.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Slugger spent the year before the 2010 election bigging up UCUNF, to no RW effect. I just don't give Fealty's analyses much credence: there's always too much wishful thinking about the triumph of moderate unionism over nationalism. On the plus side for Slugger, the insufferably tedious Pete Baker doesn't seem to be around anymore as ubiquitous as he was.

I don't know what this has to do with Fealty. It's his blog, but every argument can and should be analysed on its own merits rather than dismissing them because of their source. It's too easy a criticism.

What it has to do with Fealty is the fact that it's his speculation that's forming the basis of this conversation.

And as far as the maths of the situation go, I find it difficult to see unionist voters switching to "an amazing nationalist-immigrant fusion Alliance party candidate" when the DUP are second.

Particularly given that many of these voters would be living in areas like Sandy Row and The Village where considerable, em, "popular", efforts are made to keep out nationalists, immigrants, or indeed any amazing fusion of the two.

McDonnell may be pompous and not a particularly good party leader, but he's not mired in scandal, so I don't see the incentive for SDLP voters to kick him out and run the risk of electing a unionist.

Now tell me where I predicated anything on Alliance getting the racist vote. Sinn Féin will bleed 3k votes from the SDLP without trying too hard. Then Alliance will try to win, as political parties do. They will seek to take chunks of the 2010 McDonnell and Paula Bradshaw votes, two middle-class and liberal bloc relative to the province, not particularly hostile to immigration, not linked to loyalist paramilitaries. Belfast South SDLP people are not really traditional nationalists, as the history and demography of the constituency demonstrate. Is it likely? No. Is it possible? Yes. (My "amazing" comment is not praise, by the way, but bemusement that this combination within one candidate exists and is at all prominent outside Sinn Féin, given what we know about Belfast.)