UK General Election - May 7th 2015
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GAworth
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« Reply #325 on: July 29, 2014, 10:14:50 PM »

Using the data published by Electoral Calculus as to how similar the new proposed seat was to the old, I came up with the following alternative General Election 2010

Conservatives 296 seats
Labour 234 seats
Liberal Democrats 47 seats
Democratic Unionists 6 seats
Scottish Nationalists 6 seats
Sinn Fein 6 seats
SDLP 2 seats
Plaid Cymru 1 seat
Alliance 1 seat
Northern Ireland Independents 1 seat
What seat(s) would the Sinn Fein gain from the DUP? And do you really think that Naomi Long can hold on in E. Belfast, and are these figures counting two tory wins in NI, I only count 16 NI seats won by NI Parties?
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YL
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« Reply #326 on: July 30, 2014, 01:56:35 AM »
« Edited: July 30, 2014, 02:04:06 AM by YL »

What seats would UKIP possibly win, other than Farage's?

Ashcroft constituency polls (for what they're worth) just showed them ahead in both Thurrock and South Thanet (the latter may be Farage's) and only just behind in Great Yarmouth and Camborne & Redruth.  Various other seats near the East and South Coasts seem like at least outside chances for them as well: Boston & Skegness, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, maybe North Thanet, possibly a couple on the Sussex coast.  I'd also mention Castle Point, mainly because it seems like a rather UKIP sort of place.  Of seats currently held by Labour, I'd think the one in most danger of going purple is Great Grimsby, but Survation and Ashcroft polls there have both shown Labour well ahead.

Using the data published by Electoral Calculus as to how similar the new proposed seat was to the old, I came up with the following alternative General Election 2010

Conservatives 296 seats
Labour 234 seats
Liberal Democrats 47 seats
Democratic Unionists 6 seats
Scottish Nationalists 6 seats
Sinn Fein 6 seats
SDLP 2 seats
Plaid Cymru 1 seat
Alliance 1 seat
Northern Ireland Independents 1 seat
What seat(s) would the Sinn Fein gain from the DUP? And do you really think that Naomi Long can hold on in E. Belfast, and are these figures counting two tory wins in NI, I only count 16 NI seats won by NI Parties?

This is based on the proposed boundaries from the cancelled boundary review, and it's for 2010.  Northern Ireland would have had 16 seats, so that's right, and Alliance would definitely have won Belfast South-East (and had a good chance at holding on to it in 2015; it was a bit of a dream scenario for them).  I'm not sure how he's getting 6 Sinn Féin seats, though: they'd presumably have won the new "Glenshane" seat (the successor to East Londonderry) but Mid Ulster would have been abolished, so I'm only seeing 5.  Possibly he thinks they'd have won North Belfast, but I don't think the proposals would have helped them there.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #327 on: July 30, 2014, 01:07:51 PM »

What seats would UKIP possibly win, other than Farage's?

Ashcroft constituency polls (for what they're worth) just showed them ahead in both Thurrock and South Thanet (the latter may be Farage's) and only just behind in Great Yarmouth and Camborne & Redruth.  Various other seats near the East and South Coasts seem like at least outside chances for them as well: Boston & Skegness, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, maybe North Thanet, possibly a couple on the Sussex coast.  I'd also mention Castle Point, mainly because it seems like a rather UKIP sort of place.  Of seats currently held by Labour, I'd think the one in most danger of going purple is Great Grimsby, but Survation and Ashcroft polls there have both shown Labour well ahead.


2 or 3 in South Yorkshire probably worth keeping an eye on.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #328 on: July 30, 2014, 02:08:56 PM »

Stranger things have been known, but right now it seems likely that UKIP only have a reasonable chance of gaining seats where they had substantial leads in either the 2013 or 2014 locals; I think the only Labour-held seat where that's the case is Grimsby.

A historical polling tendency - not a 'rule', just a tendency - to be aware of: it has usually been the case that the percentage of people expressing support for non-'mainstream' parties declines as the General Election gets closer.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #329 on: July 30, 2014, 02:26:32 PM »

Stranger things have been known, but right now it seems likely that UKIP only have a reasonable chance of gaining seats where they had substantial leads in either the 2013 or 2014 locals; I think the only Labour-held seat where that's the case is Grimsby.

A historical polling tendency - not a 'rule', just a tendency - to be aware of: it has usually been the case that the percentage of people expressing support for non-'mainstream' parties declines as the General Election gets closer.

Well, of course. And of course, next May, Nige' won't have the free run of the entire press and media that he basically had this May.
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YL
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« Reply #330 on: July 30, 2014, 02:29:40 PM »

I will just say this again:

Re Rotherham, remember that Labour still got more than twice as many votes as UKIP in the November 2012 by-election, in spite of the problems with the council, the Labour selection farce and the circumstances of the by-election.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #331 on: July 30, 2014, 03:37:01 PM »

Stranger things have been known, but right now it seems likely that UKIP only have a reasonable chance of gaining seats where they had substantial leads in either the 2013 or 2014 locals; I think the only Labour-held seat where that's the case is Grimsby.

A historical polling tendency - not a 'rule', just a tendency - to be aware of: it has usually been the case that the percentage of people expressing support for non-'mainstream' parties declines as the General Election gets closer.

Do you see Lib Dems improving as the election gets closer? (Probably a first Surprise)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #332 on: July 30, 2014, 03:52:42 PM »

Do you see Lib Dems improving as the election gets closer? (Probably a first Surprise)

On the contrary, the general tendency was always for them to improve their polling figures in the runup to an election. Admittedly this was entirely because their share of media coverage also tended to improve in the runup to an election... and even more during it, due to rules about broadcast 'fairness'.* Of course their current polling woes are because they are unpopular and not because of a lack of coverage...

*UKIP may well run into trouble with this because although all parties are guaranteed coverage, minor parties - note here that UKIP have no MPs - are not alloted much.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #333 on: July 30, 2014, 04:13:22 PM »

Do you see Lib Dems improving as the election gets closer? (Probably a first Surprise)

On the contrary, the general tendency was always for them to improve their polling figures in the runup to an election. Admittedly this was entirely because their share of media coverage also tended to improve in the runup to an election... and even more during it, due to rules about broadcast 'fairness'.* Of course their current polling woes are because they are unpopular and not because of a lack of coverage...

*UKIP may well run into trouble with this because although all parties are guaranteed coverage, minor parties - note here that UKIP have no MPs - are not alloted much.

Ok... That seems counter intuitive. I recall stories of SDP doing really well in the early 80's for example, only to disappoint come election time. I assume this trend reversed itself at some point?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #334 on: July 30, 2014, 04:18:08 PM »

The 1980s were different; the Alliance had many friends in the media and received much (glowing) coverage.
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EPG
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« Reply #335 on: July 30, 2014, 04:50:53 PM »

This is based on the proposed boundaries from the cancelled boundary review, and it's for 2010.  Northern Ireland would have had 16 seats, so that's right, and Alliance would definitely have won Belfast South-East (and had a good chance at holding on to it in 2015; it was a bit of a dream scenario for them).  I'm not sure how he's getting 6 Sinn Féin seats, though: they'd presumably have won the new "Glenshane" seat (the successor to East Londonderry) but Mid Ulster would have been abolished, so I'm only seeing 5.  Possibly he thinks they'd have won North Belfast, but I don't think the proposals would have helped them there.

No, the proposed Belfast North wasn't good for Sinn Féin, though Glenshane would have been (in fact, it would have been mostly Mid Ulster, leaving Gregory Campbell without a seat).
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #336 on: July 30, 2014, 08:00:02 PM »

The LDs see no recovery so far, but they surely will do better than polled in the last 4 years!

Don't count on it.

They were doing (relatively) okay in the EU election polls and then bombed once they actually started campaigning.

The fall of the LibDems isn't just your bog standard 'ebb and flow' in the polls that happens to every party at every election. The structure of their support has been fundamentally altered over the course of this parliament.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #337 on: July 31, 2014, 12:47:25 PM »

The 1980s were different; the Alliance had many friends in the media and received much (glowing) coverage.

Plus the Labour Party was in as bad a state as you could possibly imagine a major political party to be in for practically the whole of that decade...
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Cassius
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« Reply #338 on: July 31, 2014, 12:55:53 PM »

If the Lib-Dems did axe Clegg, is there anybody who could somewhat salvage their fortunes (since it seems that whenever they actively try to do that with Clegg at the helm it just makes things worse - a la the Euros). I mean, I imagine all of their current cabinet ministers would be pretty useless at that, but is there anyone on the backbenches maybe?
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EPG
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« Reply #339 on: July 31, 2014, 01:22:04 PM »

If the Lib-Dems did axe Clegg, is there anybody who could somewhat salvage their fortunes (since it seems that whenever they actively try to do that with Clegg at the helm it just makes things worse - a la the Euros). I mean, I imagine all of their current cabinet ministers would be pretty useless at that, but is there anyone on the backbenches maybe?

All English politicians are "pretty useless" by the ridiculous standards people expect. Except Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage, but they're popular because they don't actually run anything, just act as human projection vessels for people's hopes and fears. The problem with the Lib Dems is that they attracted lots of lefties who have not liked any government in their adult lives and thought they had found a permanent party of protest. 6% of the electorate were with the Lib Dems and are now with Labour. Obviously, Labour hopes that they will (a) win Labour the election and (b) stay with Labour afterwards, rather than walking away, feeling betrayed, to the Green Party or some such vessel. But neither is assured. (For context - imagine how betrayed UKIP supporters would feel the minute their party entered government!)
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Cassius
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« Reply #340 on: July 31, 2014, 01:30:59 PM »

If the Lib-Dems did axe Clegg, is there anybody who could somewhat salvage their fortunes (since it seems that whenever they actively try to do that with Clegg at the helm it just makes things worse - a la the Euros). I mean, I imagine all of their current cabinet ministers would be pretty useless at that, but is there anyone on the backbenches maybe?

All English politicians are "pretty useless" by the ridiculous standards people expect. Except Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage, but they're popular because they don't actually run anything, just act as human projection vessels for people's hopes and fears. The problem with the Lib Dems is that they attracted lots of lefties who have not liked any government in their adult lives and thought they had found a permanent party of protest. 6% of the electorate were with the Lib Dems and are now with Labour. Obviously, Labour hopes that they will (a) win Labour the election and (b) stay with Labour afterwards, rather than walking away, feeling betrayed, to the Green Party or some such vessel. But neither is assured. (For context - imagine how betrayed UKIP supporters would feel the minute their party entered government!)

All you say is correct, but I was coming more from the angle of pulling them back up into the low to mid teens, as opposed to there current polling which often places them at their worst levels (if we were to assume that is what they'd get in an election) since the 50's - and of course they ran far fewer candidates back then. Basically someone who would manage to avoid utter humiliation.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #341 on: July 31, 2014, 02:05:10 PM »

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The old Liberal Party under Jo Grimmond only achieved 7.5% of the popular vote in the 1970 general election. Then a combination of the incompetent Heath government and Labour's slide to the left in the early 70's produced a surge in support under Jeremy Thorpe by the time of the two elections of 1974 which has largely held firm during all subsequent general elections.

We're in an unusual situation at the moment as the Libs haven't been a part of government since WW2 and many of their ex voters hate the fact they're in coalition with the Tories. Couple that with the rise of UKIP and it's easy to see why they're struggling in the polls.

I still expect they'll achieve a limited recovery though probably to around 14% by May 2015.
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joevsimp
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« Reply #342 on: July 31, 2014, 03:59:22 PM »

Even since the UKIP surge in 2013, I have become convinced that the next election will see the following vote shares:

Conservatives 30%
Labour 30%
UKIP 20%
Liberal Democrats 10%
Greens 5%
Others 5%

According to Electoral Calculus, that would result in a House of Commons with: Labour 317, Conservatives 274, Liberal Democrats 29, SNP 7, Plaid 3, Greens 1, Northern Ireland 18

greens won't get 5%, we never get that much in fptp elections and lost about half our vote in non-target constituencies last time, (ukip won't get 20% though, maybe 10 or 15)
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DL
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« Reply #343 on: August 01, 2014, 09:40:33 AM »
« Edited: August 01, 2014, 09:43:46 AM by DL »


The old Liberal Party under Jo Grimmond only achieved 7.5% of the popular vote in the 1970 general election. Then a combination of the incompetent Heath government and Labour's slide to the left in the early 70's produced a surge in support under Jeremy Thorpe by the time of the two elections of 1974 which has largely held firm during all subsequent general elections.


True but look at how spectacularly inefficient the Liberal vote was in those days. In Spring 1974 they took 19% of the national popular vote and that got them just 14 seats!

PS: Jeremy Thorpe became Liberal leader in 1969 and was also the leader in the calamitous 1970 election.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #344 on: August 02, 2014, 01:00:42 PM »

Sir Keir Starmer is running for the Labour nod in open Holborn & St Pancras (Frank Dobson is retiring after what will be thirty six years) and has already been endorsed by what looks to be about half the London Labour establishment.
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Gary J
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« Reply #345 on: August 03, 2014, 11:57:13 AM »

There is no Liberal Democrat front or back bencher who would be a credible new leader before the general election. 

For better or for ill, Nick Clegg will lead the Liberal Democrats into the election. Until we know the outcome of the election, we will not know if the Lib Dems will need a new leader and if so who is available to be chosen.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #346 on: August 03, 2014, 01:57:18 PM »

What result would be good enough for Clegg to remain leader?
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Cassius
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« Reply #347 on: August 03, 2014, 02:17:43 PM »

What result would be good enough for Clegg to remain leader?

Barring any miraculous last minute revival where the party manages to confound everybody and gain support or at least hold it, I think that depends upon whether the party remains in government. Should the coalition remain in office after next years election, Clegg may be able to hang onto his job. However, he might not be able to in the event of a Labour/Lib-Dem coalition (the Labour party might well make a show of 'refusing' to work with Clegg). On the other hand, if they get booted out of office, Clegg's probably a goner (unless of the miracle scenario outlined in the first sentence occurs). The party will naturally want to rebuild, and Clegg is hardly the man to be at the helm of such a task. So, basically, the two scenarios in which Clegg could remain leader are either a very strong performance or staying in government.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #348 on: August 03, 2014, 03:40:08 PM »

It might not even be the party's choice. Nick Clegg first and formost need to not be Portilloed in Sheffield Hallam.   
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #349 on: August 03, 2014, 04:49:02 PM »

I can only see him holding on if there's literally no change of government and it remains a Con-Lib coalition.
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