UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[GAworth]

What seats would UKIP possibly win, other than Farage's?

Ashcroft constituency polls (for what they're worth) just showed them ahead in both Thurrock and South Thanet (the latter may be Farage's) and only just behind in Great Yarmouth and Camborne & Redruth.  Various other seats near the East and South Coasts seem like at least outside chances for them as well: Boston & Skegness, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, maybe North Thanet, possibly a couple on the Sussex coast.  I'd also mention Castle Point, mainly because it seems like a rather UKIP sort of place.  Of seats currently held by Labour, I'd think the one in most danger of going purple is Great Grimsby, but Survation and Ashcroft polls there have both shown Labour well ahead.

Using the data published by Electoral Calculus as to how similar the new proposed seat was to the old, I came up with the following alternative General Election 2010

Conservatives 296 seats
Labour 234 seats
Liberal Democrats 47 seats
Democratic Unionists 6 seats
Scottish Nationalists 6 seats
Sinn Fein 6 seats
SDLP 2 seats
Plaid Cymru 1 seat
Alliance 1 seat
Northern Ireland Independents 1 seat

What seat(s) would the Sinn Fein gain from the DUP? And do you really think that Naomi Long can hold on in E. Belfast, and are these figures counting two tory wins in NI, I only count 16 NI seats won by NI Parties?

This is based on the proposed boundaries from the cancelled boundary review, and it's for 2010.  Northern Ireland would have had 16 seats, so that's right, and Alliance would definitely have won Belfast South-East (and had a good chance at holding on to it in 2015; it was a bit of a dream scenario for them).  I'm not sure how he's getting 6 Sinn Féin seats, though: they'd presumably have won the new "Glenshane" seat (the successor to East Londonderry) but Mid Ulster would have been abolished, so I'm only seeing 5.  Possibly he thinks they'd have won North Belfast, but I don't think the proposals would have helped them there.

Thanks gotcha

[Phony Moderate]

Boris Johnson wants to become Tory leader an MP again.

[ChrisDR68]

Boris Johnson wants to become Tory leader an MP again.

I predict David Cameron will remain as PM after the next general election so Mr Have I Got News For You will have to wait a few years yet for his chance

[You kip if you want to...]

Boris Johnson wants to become Tory leader an MP again.

I predict David Cameron will remain as PM after the next general election so Mr Have I Got News For You will have to wait a few years yet for his chance

I actually think this'd be his preference. Rather become PM in 2017-18 than Opposition Leader in 2015 and risk your image being torn apart for 5 years and/or facing a Labour government which could actually be popular.

Of course, this comes just days after Boris firmly placed himself in the Brexit group.

[You kip if you want to...]

The bad news just keeps on coming for Ed Miliband.

[YL]

That's a Survation marginals poll carried out on behalf of Unite.

I must admit that I don't particularly like marginals polls as a concept, especially ones like this which lump together Labour and Lib Dem targets, which are completely different sorts of seats.

[YL]

Looks like bad news for anyone living in South Thanet who doesn't want a circus:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/08/nigel-farage-ukip-south-thanet-election-parliament

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I must admit that I don't particularly like marginals polls as a concept

And you would be right to as their record is beyond atrocious.

[Simfan34]

Why would a Labour government elected in 2015 only last 2-3 years?

[andrew_c]

If Labour wins a narrow majority, defections and resignations, coupled with possible by-election losses over the course of 2-3 years, could potentially turn a narrow majority parliament into a hung parliament.  In that case, it is somewhat likely that a government would be defeated on a non-confidence vote or loss of supply, therefore triggering a dissolution of parliament and a general election.

[DL]

I'm not so sure that would happen. You are basically describing what happened to the Labour government 1974-1979 which only had a 3 seat majority after the October 1974 election...but that government actually survived for 4.5 years! If a Labour gov't lost its majority a couple of years into its mandate chances are that at least one of the minor parties (ie: SDLP, Sinn Fein, SNP, PC and LibDems) could easily be bought off since they would likely all be averse to a snap election that might bring the Tories back to power. No one expected that Tory-LibDem coalition to last a full term - and yet it appears that is exactly what will happen. Remember that the minor parties (with the exception of the Ulster Unionists and anyone elected for UKIP) are all ideologically much closer to Labour than they are to the Tories so at least one would be willing to make a deal. We could end up with another Lib/Lab pact like in the late 70s etc...

[You kip if you want to...]

Why would a Labour government elected in 2015 only last 2-3 years?

No, I'm saying that should the Tories be reelected, it's likely that Cameron will stand down at some point during the second term.

[You kip if you want to...]

Also, I'd say that Farage is a shoo-in for South Thanet...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

2010 results in South Thanet...

Con 48, Labour 31.4, LDem 15.1, UKIP 5.5. Turnout of 65%. UKIP have polled strongly there, but let's not get ahead of ourselves...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Incidentally Thanet's district council is also fully up in 2015. Currently UKIP have no councillors there (last election was pre-UKIP bump) , but they performed so spectacularly well that I'm wondering whether they could rocket into first place - perhaps becoming the most likely UKIP local admin in the country?

[Goodwin]

The Spectator produced an interesting article on the demographics of Thanet South a month ago:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/07/could-farage-win-if-he-stands-in-thanet-south/

Being local to Thanet South (Ramsgate), I seriously hope we don't give UKIP their first Westminster seat, and Farage standing in Thanet South will end any hope of a Tory hold here next year. But the Tory candidate, Craig Mackinlay (former UKIP), is just as eurosceptic as Farage which will make things interesting. Labour on the otherhand have already started their 2015 campaign, and are standing the young (and some say inexperienced) Will Scobie, the only non-UKIP KCC Thanet representative, from Margate. 

[You kip if you want to...]

Is it worth noting that Thanet South isn't on Labour's public target list and so, presumably, won't be given that much attention by the national party?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wouldn't assume that a public target list is the only list of targets that exists. Dover - which certainly is a Labour target - is next door, of course.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The Spectator produced an interesting article on the demographics of Thanet South a month ago:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/07/could-farage-win-if-he-stands-in-thanet-south/

Being local to Thanet South (Ramsgate), I seriously hope we don't give UKIP their first Westminster seat, and Farage standing in Thanet South will end any hope of a Tory hold here next year. But the Tory candidate, Craig Mackinlay (former UKIP), is just as eurosceptic as Farage which will make things interesting. Labour on the otherhand have already started their 2015 campaign, and are standing the young (and some say inexperienced) Will Scobie, the only non-UKIP KCC Thanet representative, from Margate. 

Tories nominating a candidate as Eurosceptic as UKIP didn't help matters in Eastleigh...

[Phony Moderate]

Just a thought - how hilarious would the results in Liverpool be if Labour were led by Burnham and the Tories by Boris next year?

[EPG]

Geographically, South Thanet looks like the type of seat normally associated with the words "Voting Rights Act".

As for hung-parliament maths, Sinn Féin don't take their seats at Westminster. That means you can exclude them from a majority threshold, but it also means that you can't ever add them to a majority. The SDLP is a bit more ideologically centre-left and is not abstentionist, so they would indeed help to sustain a Labour minority government and defeat a Conservative one. God knows what the SNP would do about a Labour minority government; in some ways, it helps their electoral aims when Conservatives rule from London. Above all, the Lib Dems show us that there are no prizes for helping prop up a government these days. This will raise the price charged by small parties for future support.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The DUP is more-or-less openly for sale, of course.

[You kip if you want to...]

Foreign Office minister Mark Simmonds resigns from government. He's the MP for Boston & Skegness and he's ssaid he's not standing in 2015. Good news for UKIP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In theory at least that's UKIP's most credible target in the country (and by some margin). Tories have to be careful with candidate selection.

[You kip if you want to...]

Was there a local election here in May just gone?