UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[YL]

Survation constituency polls:

Boston & Skegness: UKIP 46 Con 26 Lab 21 LD 2
North Thanet: Con 33 UKIP 32 Lab 24 LD 6
Rotherham: Lab 48 UKIP 37 Con 6 LD 4

[politicus]

Ah I see things that need to be addressed at some point.

Looking forward to that, it would be interesting with your view of those things.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, you know my motto. Why put off till tomorrow what you can put off till next week?

[afleitch]

Panelbase poll for Scotland (changes on 2010)

SNP 34% (+14)
LAB 32% (-10)
CON 18% (+2)
UKIP 6%
LIB 5% (-14)
OTH 5%

And for fun, Holyrood - Constituency and Regional with changes on 2011

SNP 42 (-3) 37 (-7)
LAB 27 (-5) 27  (+1)
CON 15 (+1) 16 (+4)
LIB 5 (-3) 5 (0)
UKIP 5 / 4
OTH 5 / 1
GRN - / 9 (+5)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I wonder how many Labour seats are up for grabs in Scotland?

Dundee West, Aberdeen North, Ochil all were pretty close last time and could fall on a bad swing to the Nats. But, I wonder if the Yes campaign in Glasgow could boost results unexpectedly - perhaps that Glasgow seat that fell to the SNP once in a by-election will be reclaimed.

This also cements my belief that Carmichael and Kennedy will be the only Scottish Lib Dems returned next election.

[tpfkaw]

Here's what the Lib Dem seats would look like on a uniform swing to those percentages; as you can see they're cruising for a bruising (especially as this understates how poorly they're doing, since they didn't have 13.9% of the vote to lose in the first place in many constituencies). However, because Labour is also doing so poorly, they wouldn't stand to benefit.

SNP gains from LD

Gordon (Malcolm Bruce)

Old: LD 13.8 over SNP
New: SNP 14.2 over LD

Argyll and Bute (Alan Reid)

Old: LD 7.6 over Con, 8.9 over Lab
New: SNP 7.3 over Con

Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey (Danny Alexander)

Old: LD 18.6 over Lab
New: SNP 6.0 over LD

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross (John Thurso)

Old: LD 16.8 over Lab
New: SNP 5.8 over LD

Edinburgh West (Mike Crockart)

Old: LD 8.2 over Lab
New: SNP 2.8 over Con, 5.3 over LD, 9.6 over Lab

Con gains from LD

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Michael Moore)

Old: LD 11.6 over Con
New: Con 3.6 over LD

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (Robert Smith)

Old: LD 8.1 over Con
New: Con 1.8 over SNP, 7.1 over LD

LD hold

Orkney and Shetland (Alistair Carmichael)

Old: LD 51.3 over Lab
New: LD 23.4 over SNP

Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Charles Kennedy)

Old: LD 37.5 over Lab
New: LD 9.5 over SNP

North East Fife (Menzies Campbell)

Old: LD 22.5 over Con
New: LD 2.1 over SNP, 7.3 over Con

East Dunbartonshire (Jo Swinson)

Old: LD 4.6 over Lab
New: LD 0.2 over SNP, 0.7 over Lab, 8.0 over Con

[tpfkaw]

And the Labour seats (the SNP and Tories would hold all of theirs safely). In some of these a uniform swing has the Lib Dems getting a negative percentage of the vote. Given the referendum results, it's a reasonable hypothesis that the Labour losses have been concentrated in the Glasgow region.

SNP gains from Lab

Ochil and South Perthshire (Gordon Banks)

Old: Lab 10.3 over SNP
New: SNP 13.8 over Lab

Falkirk (Eric Joyce)

Old: Lab 15.4 over SNP
New: SNP 8.7 over Lab

Dundee West (Jim McGovern)

Old: Lab 19.6 over SNP
New: SNP 4.5 over Lab

North Ayrshire and Arran (Katy Clark)

Old: Lab 21.5 over SNP
New: SNP 2.6 over Lab

Aberdeen North (Frank Doran)

Old: Lab 22.2 over SNP
New: SNP 1.9 over Lab

Livingston (Graeme Morrice)

Old: Lab 22.6 over SNP
New: SNP 1.5 over Lab

Edinburgh East (Sheila Gilmore)

Old: Lab 23.0 over SNP
New: SNP 1.1 over Lab

Lab holds

Glasgow North East (Willie Bain)

Old: Lab 54.2 over SNP
New: Lab 30.1 over SNP

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Gordon Brown)

Old: Lab 50.2 over SNP
New: Lab 26.1 over SNP

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill (Tom Clarke)

Old: Lab 49.7 over SNP
New: Lab 25.6 over SNP

Airdrie and Shotts (Pamela Nash)

Old: Lab 34.7 over LD
New: Lab 22.2 over SNP

Rutherglen and Hamilton West (Tom Greatrex)

Old: Lab 44.7 over SNP
New: Lab 20.6 over SNP

Paisley and Renfrewshire South (Douglas Alexander)

Old: Lab 41.5 over SNP
New: Lab 17.4 over SNP

West Dunbartonshire (Gemma Doyle)

Old: Lab 41.2 over SNP
New: Lab 17.1 over SNP

Glasgow North West (John Robertson)

Old: Lab 38.3 over LD
New: Lab 14.7 over SNP

Inverclyde (Iain McKenzie)

Old: Lab 38.5 over SNP
New: Lab 14.4 over SNP

Glasgow East (Margaret Curran)

Old: Lab 36.9 over SNP
New: Lab 12.8 over SNP

Glasgow South West (Ian Davidson)

Old: Lab 36.2 over SNP
New: Lab 12.1 over SNP

Dunfermline and West Fife (Thomas Docherty)

Old: Lab 11.2 over LD
New: Lab 11.6 over SNP

Paisley and Renfrewshire North (Jim Sheridan)

Old: Lab 34.9 over SNP
New: Lab 10.8 over SNP

Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East (Gregg McClymont)

Old: Lab 33.4 over SNP
New: Lab 9.3 over SNP

East Renfrewshire (Jim Murphy)

Old: Lab 20.4 over Con
New: Lab 9.1 over Con

Glasgow North (Ann McKechin)

Old: Lab 13.2 over LD
New: Lab 8.5 over SNP

Glasgow South (Tom Harris)

Old: Lab 31.6 over SNP
New: Lab 7.5 over SNP

Glenrothes (Lindsay Roy)

Old: Lab 30.6 over SNP
New: Lab 6.5 over SNP

Edinburgh South West (Alistair Darling)

Old: Lab 18.5 over Con
New: Lab 6.5 over SNP, 7.2 over Con

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock (Sandra Osborne)

Old: Lab 21.6 over Con
New: Lab 5.0 over SNP

Lanark and Hamilton East

Old: Lab 29.0 over SNP
New: Lab 4.9 over SNP

Central Ayrshire (Brian Donohoe)

Old: Lab 27.3 over Con
New: Lab 4.6 over SNP

East Lothian (Fiona O'Donnell)

Old: Lab 24.9 over Con
New: Lab 4.5 over SNP

East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow (Michael McCann)

Old: Lab 28.5 over SNP
New: Lab 4.4 over SNP

Edinburgh North and Leith (Mark Lazarowicz)

Old: Lab 3.7 over LD
New: Lab 3.8 over SNP, 7.6 over LD

Dumfries and Galloway (Russell Brown)

Old: Lab 14.3 over Con
New: Lab 3.0 over Con, 9.5 over SNP

Kilmarnock and Loudoun (Cathy Jamieson)

Old: Lab 26.5 over SNP
New: Lab 2.4 over SNP

Midlothian (David Hamilton)

Old: Lab 26.4 over SNP
New: Lab 2.3 over SNP

Edinburgh South (Ian Murray)

Old: Lab 0.7 over LD
New: Lab 1.8 over Con, 2.9 over SNP, 4.6 over LD

Aberdeen South (Anne Begg)

Old: Lab 8.1 over LD
New: Lab 0.5 over SNP, 4.5 over Con

Glasgow Central (Anas Sarwar)

Old: Lab 24.5 over SNP
New: Lab 0.4 over SNP

Stirling (Anne McGuire)

Old: Lab 17.9 over Con
New: Lab 0.4 over SNP, 6.4 over Con

Linlithgow and East Falkirk (Michael Connarty)

Old: Lab 24.4 over SNP
New: Lab 0.3 over SNP

[tpfkaw]

So on those numbers we can make projections of:

Labour: Between 14 and 42 seats (-27 to +1), 34 on a uniform swing
SNP: Between 8 and 41 seats (+2 to +35), 18 "
Tories: Between 1 and 13 seats (even to +12), 3 "
Lib Dems: Between 1 and 11 seats (-10 to even), 4 "

Labour has more room for error than the SNP but they should neglect Scotland at their peril, since the SNP has the potential to nearly wipe them out there (and become the Scottish Bloc Québécois) if Afleitch's poll numbers are accurate. On the other hand, the SNP might want to manage expectations before the election, so that a weaker-than-expected result doesn't hurt the party too much.

It could also be somewhat of a breakout election for the Scottish Tories if they can consolidate the 6% UKIP voters, run a strong campaign, and get lucky with how the center-left votes split.

The Lib Dems are on the verge of wipeout; at this point, all they can hope for is to get lucky with how the other parties split their votes.

[afleitch]

The Yougov weekly average is even worse at LAB 29, SNP 40, CON 16 and LIB DEM 6

Two points of note.

Labour had a great year in Scotland in 2010 considering. They have no where else to go really but down. The Lib Dems will go down. The Tories will probably go up a little. There will be shades of 1992 here I think. I still expect Labour to top the poll here but I have a feeling voters will not be too enthused about them.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The 6% UKIP vote intrigues me. Where is it concentrated? If it splits the Tory vote in the Borders, perhaps it will save Moore's hide.

Also LOL that Swinson manages to keep her seat on UNS.

[Phony Moderate]

What happens if we see a result along these lines?

Lab - 290 seats
Con - 290 seats
SNP - 35 seats
Lib Dems - 20 seats

[Gary J]

Phony Moderate.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There also some other members in a House of 650 (minus Sinn Feiners not taking their seats), who might provide some additional chances of negotiation.

There is some sort of constitutional convention that politicians have a duty to provide the Crown with an administration, so as to avoid troubling the electorate with too frequent new elections. Given the numbers suggested, no stable majority coalition seems likely. 

However the Labour Party seems better placed than the Tories to form a minority government, which might either through formal confidence and supply agreements or informal understandings and case by case negotiations, keep things together for at least six months or possibly longer. 

As the Conservatives would be busy disposing of Cameron and the Liberal Democrats would not be keen on the expense and risk of a quick second election, it is probably only the SNP who would vote against the government in the short term. Labour could then arranges a dissolution at the time of its choosing (not as easy now as before fixed term Parliaments, but not impossible - would the opposition really vote against a dissolution when they could not put together an alternative administration with a majority).

[You kip if you want to...]

What happens if we see a result along these lines?

Lab - 290 seats
Con - 290 seats
SNP - 35 seats
Lib Dems - 20 seats

The SNP would get literally anything they'd ask for a few months, but probably minority Lab, although the Tories wouldve been ahead in the popular vote, so there'd be plenty of Tory politicians lining up to call the election a sham.

[Harry Hayfield]

Top 10 SNP Targets (ranked by swing)
1) Ochil and South Perthshire (5.14%)
2) Argyll and Bute (6.36%)
3) Gordon (6.92%)
4) Falkirk (7.72%)
5) Dundee West (9.80%)
6) North Ayrshire and Arran (10.73%)
7) Inverness (11.01%)
Aberdeen North (11.09%)
9) Caithness (11.11%)
10) Livingston (11.26%)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My suspicion at this point - and it's too early to have anything other than suspicions - is that results in Scotland will look not entirely unlike those of October 1974. Maybe not in terms of details, admittedly.

[EPG]

What happens if we see a result along these lines?

Lab - 290 seats
Con - 290 seats
SNP - 35 seats
Lib Dems - 20 seats

Cameron (+Clegg?) would continue for as long as possible and try to portray the SNP as wreckers weakening the UK by denying it a stable government. Conservative majority at election no. 2 2015.

[ChrisDR68]

My suspicion at this point - and it's too early to have anything other than suspicions - is that results in Scotland will look not entirely unlike those of October 1974. Maybe not in terms of details, admittedly.

The SNP got 11 seats in October 1974. Winning around that number in May 2015 sounds reasonable.

Given the essentially conservative way people tend to vote in UK general elections the chances of them winning anything like 35 seats is extremely low imo.

The Tories are still hated north of the border and removing them from office will be most Scots' top priority even if Ed Miliband's Labour Party doesn't inspire them.

[EPG]

There's no evidence that Labour is sweeping to a Scottish landslide under its new, non-Scottish leader.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour don't need a landslide in Scotland to do well there in terms of seats; in October '74 the breakdown of votes in Scotland was Labour 36.3, SNP 30.4, Con 24.7, Lib 8.3, but the number of seats won was Labour 41, Con 16, SNP 11, Lib 3. At the 2007 Holyrood election Labour took 37 constituency seats to the SNP's 21 despite polling slightly less votes. Obviously in 2011 the SNP won way more, but that was with a 14pt lead.

[tpfkaw]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-2788816/Bullish-Ukip-swoops-Kent-target.html

Shock poll, UKIP at 25%, Labour and Conservatives both at 31%, Lib Dems at 8%

"Experts suggest that the ratings would give Labour 253 MPs, Conservatives 187, Ukip 128, Lib Dems 11, and other parties, such as the SNP, 71."

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Survation is trash. By-election bumps might be seen from the more reputable firms o/c, but ask the LibDems for how long those typically last.

(also have to wonder who exactly these 'experts' are and what exactly they've been imbibing, but that's really not important).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-2788816/Bullish-Ukip-swoops-Kent-target.html

Shock poll, UKIP at 25%, Labour and Conservatives both at 31%, Lib Dems at 8%

"Experts suggest that the ratings would give Labour 253 MPs, Conservatives 187, Ukip 128, Lib Dems 11, and other parties, such as the SNP, 71."

Lol.

[Zinneke]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-2788816/Bullish-Ukip-swoops-Kent-target.html

Shock poll, UKIP at 25%, Labour and Conservatives both at 31%, Lib Dems at 8%

"Experts suggest that the ratings would give Labour 253 MPs, Conservatives 187, Ukip 128, Lib Dems 11, and other parties, such as the SNP, 71."

I'm going to go ahead and assume this is a joke. A low mobilisation of Labour and Tory stalwarts is the only thing capable of making UKIP the kingmakers in British Parliament. The turnout will be the same as last election, and I think in Scotland and Wales it will actually go up.

Ukip will be hugely under-represented because of first past the post. Could be a watershed moment in British politics.

Can't wait for the TV debates. Will the Greens be invited I wonder? 

[You kip if you want to...]

Can't wait for the TV debates. Will the Greens be invited I wonder? 

Cameron's trying to dodge them, apparently. But the Tories are apparently pumping for an Ed-Dave debate, then a Lab-Con-Lib-UKIP-Green debate.

I don't see the point in inviting the Greens personally (although, it'd do the Tories well if they were). Where's the line? They gonna invite George Galloway for Respect as well?

[Vega]

Yeah, I mean, if you invite the Greens but not the other parties who have at least 1 MP in the commons, it's going to get sticky.