UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[DL]

I gather that including the SNP in any sort of post-election coalition or agreement would be as problematic as what we had happen in Canada when the Bloc Quebecois was still a factor and was making it almost impossible for a non-Conservative government to be created. Now thankfully they are a dead party!

[YL]

Here are the last week's YouGov polls:

7 Nov: Lab 33 Con 32 UKIP 15 LD 8 Green 7 SNP/Plaid 4
9 Nov: Lab 33 Con 33 UKIP 16 LD 7 Green 6 SNP/Plaid 5
11 Nov: Lab 33 Con 32 UKIP 17 LD 6 Green 6 SNP/Plaid 5
12 Nov: Lab 34 Con 33 UKIP 15 LD 7 Green 6 SNP/Plaid 5
13 Nov: Lab 35 Con 32 UKIP 15 LD 7 Green 6 SNP/Plaid 4

Yesterday there was a MORI poll with a three point Tory lead which got a lot of headlines.  It also, rather bizarrely, had the SNP on 8% (which is not far short of Scotland's share of the population).

[SNJ1985]

https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/533026853611905024

CON 33%
LAB 32%
UKIP 15%
LD 8%
Greens 6%

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Neil Hamilton has withdrawn from his candidacy for Boston and Skegness UKIP selection.

[joevsimp]

Neil Hamilton has withdrawn from his candidacy for Boston and Skegness UKIP selection.

has he done something or has he just realised that no-one likes him?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Neil Hamilton has withdrawn from his candidacy for Boston and Skegness UKIP selection.

has he done something or has he just realised that no-one likes him?

The latter; I imagine UKIP central office realised their whole "anti-evil politicians" schtick would look pretty dumb if it brought Mr Brown Envelopes back into the House.

[You kip if you want to...]

Opinium
Con 34 (+5), Lab 33 (+1) LD 5 (-4) UKIP 18 (-1)

Think that's a low for the Libs with any firm.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's also Opinium who are trash.

[SNJ1985]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9070

YouGov/Sun

CON 34%
LAB 33%
UKIP 14%
LD 7%
GRNS 6%

[YL]

If you're going to post single YouGov polls, and I'm not sure it makes much sense to do so given that they come out five times a week, please post them all, not just the ones with Tory leads.

Here's my weekly summary of the last five:
14 Nov: Con 33 Lab 32 UKIP 15 LD 8 Green 6 SNP/Plaid 5
16 Nov: Lab 33 Con 31 UKIP 18 LD 7 Green 5 SNP/Plaid 5
18 Nov: Con 33 Lab 32 UKIP 15 Green 8 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 4
19 Nov: Lab 34 Con 32 UKIP 15 LD 7 Green 6 SNP/Plaid 4
20 Nov: Con 34 Lab 33 UKIP 14 LD 7 Green 6 SNP/Plaid 5

[YL]

For what it's worth, there are only six seats where the electionforecast.co.uk model currently projects a chance above 10% of a UKIP gain.  These are

Clacton (99%)
Boston & Skegness (85%)
Thurrock (49%)
South Thanet (43%)
Great Yarmouth (22%)
South Basildon & East Thurrock (19%)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

A below 50% chance of Farage himself winning? what.

[YL]

A below 50% chance of Farage himself winning? what.

I don't think there's been a constituency poll there since Farage was selected, so the model probably doesn't really "know" that he's the candidate.  How good their model actually is at predicting seats which behave differently from UNS very much remains to be seen.

[SNJ1985]

If you're going to post single YouGov polls, and I'm not sure it makes much sense to do so given that they come out five times a week, please post them all, not just the ones with Tory leads.

Here's my weekly summary of the last five:
14 Nov: Con 33 Lab 32 UKIP 15 LD 8 Green 6 SNP/Plaid 5
16 Nov: Lab 33 Con 31 UKIP 18 LD 7 Green 5 SNP/Plaid 5
18 Nov: Con 33 Lab 32 UKIP 15 Green 8 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 4
19 Nov: Lab 34 Con 32 UKIP 15 LD 7 Green 6 SNP/Plaid 4
20 Nov: Con 34 Lab 33 UKIP 14 LD 7 Green 6 SNP/Plaid 5

Sorry. I only posted that one because it came out that same day, not just because it had a Tory lead (I don't even support the Conservatives).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Gordon Brown standing down in 2015.

[EPG]

Meanwhile, also in the UK, proper culture war politics as a party of government mocks the minority language, warns about traitors from across the water (i.e. Britain!) selling out their land, fighting against Europe while taking scads of money from it, while fundraising and promising legal protection for Christians who want to opt out of anti-discrimination equality legislation.

They will go far.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As many adverts here say, Offer Excludes Northern Ireland.

[EPG]

There is some real news from the conference, Robinson is reciprocating to the Ulster Unionists' offer of a Westminster pact.

The deal is a rather odd offer to the Democratic Unionists to leave the UUP to fight Gildernew (Sinn Féin) in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, while the UUP in turn steps aside in Belfast North. Gildernew beat by a single, non-partisan unionist candidate in 2010 by a literal handful of votes, so it is a 50/50 shot. Running a single, non-partisan candidate again is the DUP's favoured option. Local UUP figures still prefer the former (abysmal) leader, Tom Elliott. Belfast North is already Democratic Unionist and quite safely so, up to 2011 at least. The UUP enjoys much more upside to this, and accordingly they have implied that they won't contest Belfast North even if no pact is agreed.

Nobody is talking about a pact to win Belfast East from Alliance. They must reckon Long's remaining time in the House is short.

Ukip say they will run in safely-unionist seats at least, perhaps all seats if possible.

[afleitch]

The DUP is like a UKIP sampler. It gives you an idea of the lunacy.

[YL]

Here are this week's YouGov polls.  There are six this week, because Murdoch's two Sunday rags had separate polls.

21 Nov: Con 34 Lab 33 UKIP 15 LD 7 Green 6 SNP/Plaid 4
23 Nov (Sunday Times): Lab 33 Con 33 UKIP 16 LD 7 Green 6 SNP/Plaid 5
23 Nov (Sun): Lab 34 Con 33 UKIP 15 LD 8 Green 5 SNP/Plaid 4
25 Nov: Lab 34 Con 30 UKIP 18 Green 6 LD 6 SNP/Plaid 5
26 Nov: Lab 33 Con 32 UKIP 16 LD 7 Green 6 SNP/Plaid 5
27 Nov: Con 33 Lab 32 UKIP 16 Green 7 LD 6 SNP/Plaid 4

The Sun on Sunday poll had a separate crossbreak for Sun readers (which had the Tories first and UKIP second).  In a piece of reporting bad even by their standards, the Daily Express reported these figures as if they were the full figures from a normal national poll.

In other polling news, Survation have just released a constituency poll of Camborne & Redruth showing UKIP 33 (+28) Con 30 (-8) Lab 22 (+6) Green 7 (+6) LD 6 (-31).  And yes, I realise that the words "Survation" and "constituency poll" may cause some people to run a mile.

[You kip if you want to...]

LordA releasing one from EdM's Doncaster North with Ed ahead, UKIP a strong second. His teaser was that there's enough Tories who could tactically vote to get rid of Ed. Not happening though, obv.

No numbers yet.

[YL]

LordA releasing one from EdM's Doncaster North with Ed ahead, UKIP a strong second. His teaser was that there's enough Tories who could tactically vote to get rid of Ed. Not happening though, obv.

No numbers yet.

He also did Sheffield Hallam and South Thanet.  These are strange polls: there is some re-allocation of don't knows which is having a drastic effect in them.  So I'll give four sets of numbers for each.

Doncaster North, standard question, no re-allocation: Lab 52, UKIP 30, Con 12, LD 2, Green 2
Doncaster North, standard question, re-allocation: Lab 51, UKIP 27, Con 14, LD 3, Green 1
Doncaster North, constituency question, no re-allocation: Lab 55, UKIP 27, Con 11, LD 3, Green 2
Doncaster North, constituency question, re-allocation: Lab 54, UKIP 25, Con 13, LD 4, Green 2

Sheffield Hallam, standard question, no re-allocation: Lab 33, Con 23, LD 17, UKIP 14, Green 12
Sheffield Hallam, standard question, re-allocation: Lab 28, LD 27, Con 23, UKIP 11, Green 10
Sheffield Hallam, constituency question, no re-allocation: Lab 32, LD 26, Con 18, UKIP 14, Green 11
Sheffield Hallam, constituency question, re-allocation: LD 31, Lab 28, Con 19, UKIP 11, Green 9

South Thanet, standard question, no re-allocation: UKIP 35, Con 32, Lab 26, Green 4, LD 2
South Thanet, standard question, re-allocation: Con 33, UKIP 29, Lab 27, LD 6, Green 3
South Thanet, constituency question, no re-allocation: UKIP 36, Con 31, Lab 26, Green 3, LD 3
South Thanet, constituency question, re-allocation: Con 34, UKIP 29, Lab 26, LD 7, Green 3

Edit 2 December: the Doncaster North figures are now the corrected ones, not the incorrectly weighted ones originally released.

[YL]

There are also some more of his marginal polls, mostly in the LD/Con battleground.  There isn't a single seat where the standard voting intention question gives a Lib Dem lead, but once people are prompted to think of their constituency the Lib Dems are ahead in Brecon & Radnorshire, Carshalton & Wallington, Cheltenham, Colchester, Hazel Grove, Kingston & Surbiton, Lewes, Southport and Thornbury & Yate, but the Tories are ahead in North Devon and Portsmouth South.

There are also two LD/Lab seats.  Burnley, unsurprisingly, looks like an easy Labour gain, but Birmingham Yardley has the LDs three points ahead on the constituency-specific question (19 points behind on the standard one).

These polls don't seem to have anything like the same re-allocation effect as the leaders' seats ones.  The tables look different too, so I think there's some different methodology.

[You kip if you want to...]

Where you up for Clegg?

(If Hallam Labour can put the squeeze on the Greens...)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No way is Tory support up from 2010 in Donny North; the government is less popular than ebola in the area and the Tories have performed hideously in local elections. Duff poll.