UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[YL]

This week's YouGov polls:

6 Jan: Lab 34 Con 31 UKIP 14 Green 8 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 4
7 Jan: Con 33 Lab 33 UKIP 13 Green 8 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 4
8 Jan: Lab 33 Con 32 UKIP 15 Green 7 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 4
9 Jan: Lab 33 Con 33 UKIP 13 LD 8 Green 7 SNP/Plaid 5
11 Jan: Con 32 Lab 32 UKIP 18 LD 7 Green 6 SNP/Plaid 4

[Tender Branson]

This week's YouGov polls:

6 Jan: Lab 34 Con 31 UKIP 14 Green 8 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 4
7 Jan: Con 33 Lab 33 UKIP 13 Green 8 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 4
8 Jan: Lab 33 Con 32 UKIP 15 Green 7 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 4
9 Jan: Lab 33 Con 33 UKIP 13 LD 8 Green 7 SNP/Plaid 5
11 Jan: Con 32 Lab 32 UKIP 18 LD 7 Green 6 SNP/Plaid 4

Terror bounce ?

[Insula Dei]

This week's YouGov polls:

6 Jan: Lab 34 Con 31 UKIP 14 Green 8 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 4
7 Jan: Con 33 Lab 33 UKIP 13 Green 8 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 4
8 Jan: Lab 33 Con 32 UKIP 15 Green 7 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 4
9 Jan: Lab 33 Con 33 UKIP 13 LD 8 Green 7 SNP/Plaid 5
11 Jan: Con 32 Lab 32 UKIP 18 LD 7 Green 6 SNP/Plaid 4

Terror bounce ?

Well, within the normal range for UKIP in YouGov polls, I'd say. You really need to have 2 or 3 polls in a row showing a certain trend before trying to pronounce upon it. The big news from this batch of polls seems to me to be the Labour lead over Con all but evaporating.

[SNJ1985]

11 Jan: Con 32 Lab 32 UKIP 18 LD 7 Green 6 SNP/Plaid 4

Farage brought this one up on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/554041300098744321

[YL]

Helen Pidd visits Sheffield Hallam: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/11/nick-clegg-sheffield-hallam-general-election

(BTW I'm sure there are more students in Fulwood ward, where there are two University student villages, than there are in Ecclesall.  But I suppose I shouldn't expect a journalist to get that sort of thing right.)

[doktorb]

Journalists are trying to who up two stories in the past week or so: Clegg losing, or a Grand Coalition. Both very interesting dinner party chin-strokers, I'm sure, but otherwise nowt but politico clickbait

[You kip if you want to...]

Have we ever had a party leader this threatened before?

[Phony Moderate]

Have we ever had a party leader this threatened before?

Not since Jeremy Thorpe in 1970.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually threatened or perceived to be threatened? There were journalists who thought that Callaghan might be under threat in 1979, for instance.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One of those fun 'choose your own reality' games from the polling industry today:

Populus: Labour 37, Con 32, UKIP 13, LDem 10, Green 4
Ashcroft: Con 34, Labour 28, UKIP 16, Green 8, LDem 8

[Phony Moderate]

Both showing a similar Tory share though. I'll begin to panic if/when they begin to make the 37-38% range.

[Barnes]

Actually threatened or perceived to be threatened? There were journalists who thought that Callaghan might be under threat in 1979, for instance.

That commentary was quite interesting on the BBC's coverage for that election; that, and Pat Arrowsmith's memorable trolling during Callaghan remarks.

[EPG]

Have we ever had a party leader this threatened before?

At both of your most recent general elections, the leader of the fourth-largest party lost his seat. (You may not quite consider them "yours" - but they do!)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We like to think of them as that racist uncle who we pretend not to have anything to do with but who insists on turning up to family events anyway.

[You kip if you want to...]

We like to think of them as that racist uncle who we pretend not to have anything to do with but who insists on turning up to family events anyway.

And this election could be one such family event.

[Clyde1998]

YouGov - http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/xmabfwwp6h/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-120115.pdf/b]
LAB - 33% (28% in Scotland)
CON - 32% (16% in Scotland)
UKIP - 17% (7% in Scotland)
LIB - 6% (3% in Scotland)
GRN - 6% (2% in Scotland)
NAT - 4% (43% in Scotland)
OTH - 2% (1% in Scotland)

[ChrisDR68]

Interesting analysis by Michael Ashcroft about Lib Dem defectors from 2010:

In particular, and crucially, the Lib Dems attracted a group of voters who did not want to vote for Gordon Brown and thought they had the luxury of voting against Labour without helping to elect a Conservative government. These people are numerous, and furious

What the Lib Dems have achieved, or how different from the Conservatives they can claim to be, is for them neither here nor there. As far as these people were concerned,  the Lib Dems’ most important job – their only job – was to keep the Tories out, and now look what they’ve done.

The Lib Dems aren't winning those voters back anytime soon! lol

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/03/what-are-the-liberal-democrats-for/

[Silent Hunter]

Lord Ashcroft is either going to look very clever or very stupid come 8 May.

[politicus]

Lord Ashcroft is either going to look very clever or very stupid come 8 May.

My money is on stupid.

[doktorb]

If those people really exist in such a great number, they're angry at the voting system, not us.

[afleitch]

Lord Ashcroft is either going to look very clever or very stupid come 8 May.

My money is on stupid.

Actually my money at the moment is on smart. Labour and the Tories are neck and neck before we even go into a campaign. Then when it starts, we get four weeks of this;



He's untested. If he can't handle it, Labour could end up performing worse than they did last time round (when they performed better than expected)

[afleitch]

Labour have put up probably the worst possible candidate they could have in Gordon.

[Hifly]

Labour have put up probably the worst possible candidate they could have in Gordon.

What has he done?

[YL]

It scarcely matters who Labour (or anyone else other than the SNP) put up in Gordon, anyway.

[Phony Moderate]

As underwhelming as Ed may be, Labour would be doing worse if his brother were leader. If he couldn't manage to defeat his brother then he sure as heck wouldn't be on course to defeat David Cameron.