UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Phony Moderate]

May as well, since we now have a thread for the Canadian one.

So predictions, etc?

[DC Al Fine]

UKIP beats the Lib Dems in the popular vote. but gets 1 seat at best. Hopefully electoral reform ensues.

[Leftbehind]

Hopefully electoral reform ensues.

The one possibility of a silver-lining I can see for the next election (and by electoral reform, I don't mean worthless sh**te like AV).

[Gary J]

Unfortunately after a few weeks in 2010, when there seemed a chance of moving towards proportional representation for the House of Commons, the concrete of the status quo re-solidified. I fear the issue will not be revisited after the next general election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

UKIP beats the Lib Dems in the popular vote. but gets 1 seat at best. Hopefully electoral reform ensues.

Why would it?

[DC Al Fine]

UKIP beats the Lib Dems in the popular vote. but gets 1 seat at best. Hopefully electoral reform ensues.

Why would it?

Key word is hope. I'm not confident it will at all.

[afleitch]

Same as usual. Toss up as to who comes out on top. Lib Dems on 17% or something similar and UKIP on about 5% winning no seats.

[Peter the Lefty]

If I had to bet, Conservative majority.  Lib Dems shattered, maybe a seat for UKIP.  Perhaps this is wishful thinking, but maybe another seat for the Greens. 

[politicus]

UKIP splits the Tory vote and Labour wins a 30-40 seat majority. Lib Dems reduced to 10-12 seats. Cameron resigns and some right wing nutjob takes over as Tory leader.

Not sure how many seats UKIP would actually get.

[joevsimp]

If I had to bet, Conservative majority.  Lib Dems shattered, maybe a seat for UKIP.  Perhaps this is wishful thinking, but maybe another seat for the Greens. 

lib dems will collapse in Norwich South, but I don't think we'll take it, not with the increases that Labour will get

Ukip will quite possibly get five or six seats, Greens won't gain any without the kind of media hype that UKIP have been getting

[YL]

It's still quite a long way off, and all bets could be off if Scotland votes for independence (I don't really think that'll happen, but I'm still a bit wary of underestimating Alex Salmond).  But here are my current guesses:
- Labour the largest party, with a small majority or just short;
- Lib Dems suffer big losses, but do worse in terms of votes than seats, with their local campaigning allowing them to hold on to about 30 seats;
- UKIP do considersably better than in 2010 but not as well as current polls suggest, and struggle to gain seats; they might win one or two where they have good organisation and/or a high profile candidate (perhaps Boston & Skegness or one of the Thanets);
- Greens hold Brighton Pavilion but don't win anywhere else;
- George Galloway holds Bradford West;
- Little change for Plaid, but they might win Ceredigion back from the Lib Dems;
- SNP performance hard to predict before the referendum (a big No vote would presumably be bad for them, but a narrower one might not be) but I'll guess they might pick up a couple of seats from the Lib Dems;
- Basically no change in Northern Ireland.

[Leftbehind]

UKIP beats the Lib Dems in the popular vote. but gets 1 seat at best. Hopefully electoral reform ensues.

Why would it?

Key word is hope. I'm not confident it will at all.

Nor me, but two parties supporting PR is better than one, and with both being the only potential coalition partners it can only increase the possibility (depending on how important they make it). I think 4 party-politics with parties winning seats on 25% will start to be questioned by the media and public (especially as the former are quite favourable to UKIP, and will probably regard their 15-20% vote winning next to no seats a scandal).  

Same as usual. Toss up as to who comes out on top. Lib Dems on 17% or something similar and UKIP on about 5% winning no seats.

That looks remarkably like wishful thinking on your part.

[YL]

I did some calculations to investigate the vulnerability of Lib Dem seats based purely on a swing to Labour, assuming other parties stand still.  So, here's a list of the current Lib Dem seats, ordered by the size of the swing to Labour needed for the Lib Dems to lose them.  Unless otherwise stated the swing calculated causes Labour to win the seat.

Obviously those assumptions aren't going to be satisfied exactly anywhere, and they might be particularly dodgy in Scotland and Wales.  In particular I think Ceredigion is a lot less safe for the LDs than this list suggests.

Less than 5%
Solihull 0.3% (Con win)
Norwich S 0.3%
Bradford E 0.5%
Mid Dorset & North Poole 0.6% (Con win)
Wells 1.4% (Con win)
Brent C 1.5%
Manchester Withington 2.1%
Burnley 2.2%
East Dunbartonshire 2.3%
St Austell & Newquay 2.8% (Con win)
Somerton & Frome 3.0% (Con win)
Sutton & Cheam 3.3% (Con win)
Birmingham Yardley 3.7%
St Ives 3.7% (Con win)
Edinburgh W 4.1%
Argyll & Bute 4.4%
Chippenham 4.7% (Con win)

5% to 10%
Redcar 6.2%
Cheadle 6.2% (Con win)
Hornsey & Wood Green 6.2%
Cardiff C 6.3%
North Cornwall 6.4% (Con win)
Eastbourne 6.6% (Con win)
Taunton Deane 6.9% (Con win)
Berwick upon Tweed 7.0% (Con win)
Eastleigh 7.2% (Con win; ignoring by-election)
Cambridge 7.4%
Gordon 8.0%
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine 8.2% (Con win)
Torbay 8.3% (Con win)
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 8.4%
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey 9.3%
Cheltenham 9.3% (Con win)
Bermondsey & Old Southwark 9.6%
Brecon & Radnorshire 9.6% (Con win)

10% to 15%
Bristol W 10.3%
North Devon 11.3% (Con win)
Carshalton & Wallington 11.5% (Con win)
Berwickshire, Roxburghshire & Selkirk 11.6% (Con win)
Portsmouth S 12.6% (Con win)
Kingston & Surbiton 13.2% (Con win)
Leeds NW 13.2%
North East Fife 13.6%
Southport 13.8% (Con win)
Thornbury & Yate 14.8% (Con win)

More than 15%
Colchester 15.1% (Con win)
Hazel Grove 15.2% (Con win)
Lewes 15.3% (Con win)
Sheffield Hallam 18.7%
Ross, Skye & Lochaber 18.8%
Twickenham 20.3% (Con win)
Ceredigion 21.8% (Plaid win)
Yeovil 22.8% (Con win)
North Norfolk 23.4% (Con win)
Westmorland & Lonsdale 23.8% (Con win)
Bath 24.8%
Orkney & Shetland 25.7%

[Leftbehind]

Lib > Lab swings in the by-elections this parliament.

-6.6 Bradford West
+4.4 Inverclyde
+5.0 Oldham East and Saddleworth
+5.6 South Shields
+7.3 Eastleigh
+7.9 Rotherham
+8.3 Leicester South
+9.3 Feltham and Heston
+9.6 Croydon North
+9.7 Corby
+10.0 Cardiff South and Penarth   
+12.3 Middlesbrough         
+13.3 Barnsley Central
+16.8 Manchester Central

When crudely added together give an average of 9.2%

[DC Al Fine]

The polls right now are showing a 10% swing give or take. That would have the LibDems losing 30 something seats. Another factor to consider is how the UKIP-Tory Split will play out. The Lib Dems will probably get bailed out in some seats due to UKIP playing spoiler.

[ERvND]

It was speculated today that the LibDems might actually gain seats, even if they lose votes overall.

The reasoning behind it: In Tory-LibDem marginals, the Lib->Lab swing is irrelevant. While the LibDems might lose some votes to Labour, the Conservatives will lose even more to UKIP, resulting in LibDem wins.

Any thoughts?

[ObserverIE]

It was speculated today that the LibDems might actually gain seats, even if they lose votes overall.

The reasoning behind it: In Tory-LibDem marginals, the Lib->Lab swing is irrelevant. While the LibDems might lose some votes to Labour, the Conservatives will lose even more to UKIP, resulting in LibDem wins.

Any thoughts?

At best, they might make a net gain of seats from the Tories, though I struggle to see seats that they'd take back - Harrogate, Oxford West, Truro? - but of the seats above, the first "red" seat that I'd expect they might hold is probably Caithness.

ToryRampingPoliticalBetting's reliability is another matter entirely.

[afleitch]

Worth noting that if Scotland votes Yes, independence is planned for 2016. Scottish MP's would be lame ducks for a year. So they couldn't be relied upon in any coalition. I have a feeling that if Scotland voted yes there would be a constitutional crisis in the UK anyway.

[Leftbehind]

It was speculated today that the LibDems might actually gain seats, even if they lose votes overall.

The reasoning behind it: In Tory-LibDem marginals, the Lib->Lab swing is irrelevant. While the LibDems might lose some votes to Labour, the Conservatives will lose even more to UKIP, resulting in LibDem wins.

Any thoughts?

Well Lib>Lab swing is plainly not irrelevant - if only because it weakens the Liberal result, and when it's averaging around 10%+ swings we're not talking "some votes", we're talking exoduses. So Tory losses to UKIP is not the saviour he claims, and nor have the Liberals shown to be immune from their damage either.

Really, if Liberals were going to gain from this you would've seen it in the locals earlier this month, instead you seen them recording 130 losses (falling to a new low in council seats) and setting their worst PNV at 14%.

[Supersonic]

Hopefully electoral reform ensues.

The one possibility of a silver-lining I can see for the next election (and by electoral reform, I don't mean worthless sh**te like AV).

Labour is wedded to the electoral system that could grant them a majority on 35% and maybe less. While the Conservatives won't budge. The big-two don't want minor opposition parties in Parliament to their left and right respectively.

[DC Al Fine]

Hopefully electoral reform ensues.

The one possibility of a silver-lining I can see for the next election (and by electoral reform, I don't mean worthless sh**te like AV).

Labour is wedded to the electoral system that could grant them a majority on 35% and maybe less. While the Conservatives won't budge. The big-two don't want minor opposition parties in Parliament to their left and right respectively.

I tend to agree. If it took our conservatives 3 massive vote splits to agree to merge, it will take a while to get the UK's right wingers taking.

[Harry Hayfield]

With regard to the debate about the Lib Dems, my personal feelings are that:

• Any seat with Lab in second: Labour GAIN
• Any seat with Con in second: Lib Dem HOLD

With Ceredigion operating on it's own electoral rules.

[Dan the Roman]

It was speculated today that the LibDems might actually gain seats, even if they lose votes overall.

The reasoning behind it: In Tory-LibDem marginals, the Lib->Lab swing is irrelevant. While the LibDems might lose some votes to Labour, the Conservatives will lose even more to UKIP, resulting in LibDem wins.

Any thoughts?

So much of the Liberal Democratic vote since 1992 has been pure anti-system protest votes I would not be so sure that in Lib-Con marginals UKIP will take more from the Tories than the LiDs. It was in Liberal Dem-Con marginals where UKIP tended to make the largest gains in the local elections, taking quite a bit from the Liberal Democrats.

Actually this brings up a larger problem. Ever since Tony Blair served effectively as an SDP/Liberal Prime Minister, there has no real ideological reason for the continued existence of the Liberal party, I the last decade its been a reservoirs for discontented left-wingers, and general protest votes which is the main reason its imploded so fully while in government. Of its 23% in 2010 I would say

8% Solid Liberal
9% Angry Leftist
6% General protest

Its lost most of the 9% to Labour and most of the 6% to UKIP.

[Khunanup]

That patently isn't true Dan regarding where UKIP mostly made inroads. Apart from Eastleigh (and that's largely as an effect of the by-election) the Kippers best results were almost entirely not in Lib Dem/Tory marginal parliamentary seats.

And please don't ever refer to Blair as a Liberal. He might have been a lot of other things, but he was never one of us (I think a Doctor Death's continuing SDP would have been the best fit for him politically).

[ObserverIE]

With regard to the debate about the Lib Dems, my personal feelings are that:

• Any seat with Lab in second: Labour GAIN
• Any seat with Con in second: Lib Dem HOLD

With Ceredigion operating on it's own electoral rules.

I'd expect that all the "red" seats in the first two groups - apart from Caithness and perhaps Bermondsey (we'll see how next year's council elections go in London) - are gone. Beyond that, the student-ish seats (Bristol W, Leeds NW, possibly Hallam) are more vulnerable than they appear but the rest should be held.

Of the "blue" seats, I'd expect any of the ones in the 0-5% group to be at best touch-and-go and a few beyond that (Berwick, Devon North, Southport) might be vulnerable if the incumbent retires.

Have the Lib Dems in Montgomery any chance of recovering from the Opik debacle?