UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

At a guess:

Labour win a minority, but very close to a majority - like 320 seats or something

Tories lose a good handful of seats, but retain their most recognisable faces and make some gains on LD turf. Cameron stands down, and Boris Johnson is elected leader (if not him then Theresa May).

LD's hammered in popular vote, but remain as a (weakened) force of about 20-30 MPs due to the vagaries of FPTP. Danny Alexander and Simon Hughes may have "Portillo Moments". Other Lib Dems surely at risk are Kennedy, Featherstone and Swinson, but most of the cabinet still remain. Farron elected leader.

Galloway loses; Lucas wins in a razor sharp election (but the Green's council is defeated), the SNP sweeps rural Scotland and Plaid stays constant.

UKIP is a wild card. If Farage plays his cards right, he will be elected himself - but beyond that I'm not sure how many targets UKIP have.

[afleitch]

At the moment? Conservatives just shy of a majority or able to gain a majority due to the depression in the Lib Dem votes. The potential for further Labour losses to the Conservatives is possible.

[YL]

At the moment? Conservatives just shy of a majority or able to gain a majority due to the depression in the Lib Dem votes. The potential for further Labour losses to the Conservatives is possible.

How do you see that happening, in terms of votes moving around compared with 2010?  For that to happen, I'd think that either
(a) the LD to Lab swing suggested by all polls since autumn 2010 doesn't really materialise
(b) there's a noticeable movement from Lab to Con
(c) UKIP end up hurting Lab more than Con

Any of these could happen, but I don't really see any as very likely.  I'm most concerned about (c), actually.

The reason I'm struggling to see much prospect of a Lab majority now is similar: essentially one of those would have to happen in reverse, and I don't see that as likely either.

[afleitch]

At the moment? Conservatives just shy of a majority or able to gain a majority due to the depression in the Lib Dem votes. The potential for further Labour losses to the Conservatives is possible.

How do you see that happening, in terms of votes moving around compared with 2010?  For that to happen, I'd think that either
(a) the LD to Lab swing suggested by all polls since autumn 2010 doesn't really materialise
(b) there's a noticeable movement from Lab to Con
(c) UKIP end up hurting Lab more than Con

Any of these could happen, but I don't really see any as very likely.  I'm most concerned about (c), actually.

The reason I'm struggling to see much prospect of a Lab majority now is similar: essentially one of those would have to happen in reverse, and I don't see that as likely either.

Probably best to give my take on it.

1. The big LD to LAB swing made sense when Labour were polling 40+. It makes less sense if Labour are only polling a few points higher than they did. It would also mean that they are not getting anyone back who voted Labour from 1997-2005 and gave Cameron his win in 2010. Labour can't win power on the back of dissaffected Lib Dems.

2. The Lib Dems will probably bounce back a little. Certainly once the actual campaign kicks in. One can't assume and even split in all seats. Some may stay loyal to keep the Tories out in some seats. But it could be that if there's a more favourable split to the Tories in some suburban seats in marginals like Bolton West (where Cameron didn't pick up what Major lost) which could actually mean they start picking up seats from Labour.

3. UKIP topped the poll in 2009 in both post 1997 Lib Dem pick up areas in Devon but also places like Dudley, Stoke, Hartlepool etc. Many of the areas in the East of England where they might do well at the GE are currently held by the Conservatives but were pickups from Labour in 2010 (Great Yarmouth etc). It might work to Labour's advantage, but it also could work against them too.

[YL]

Probably best to give my take on it.

1. The big LD to LAB swing made sense when Labour were polling 40+. It makes less sense if Labour are only polling a few points higher than they did. It would also mean that they are not getting anyone back who voted Labour from 1997-2005 and gave Cameron his win in 2010. Labour can't win power on the back of dissaffected Lib Dems.

OK, this is the main place where we disagree.  I think that swing is still there, and that indeed it's the case that Labour aren't really making any progress with people who voted Tory in 2010 (and are also suffering from UKIP).  I think that makes sense if you think about what people who voted Tory and Lib Dem respectively in 2010 were looking for.  (In particular, I think Labour actually can win power, at least in the form of a minority administration, on the back of people who voted Lib Dem in 2010.)

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As suggested above, I would expect Lib Dem defectors to generally break towards Labour.

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I wouldn't take that much notice of the 2009 Euros, which (a) were Euros and (b) were held at pretty much Labour's nadir.  But I do agree that losses to UKIP are a danger for Labour.

[Harry Hayfield]

My personal feelings are:
Vote Share: Con 30%, Lab 30%, UKIP 20%, Lib Dem 10%, Others 10%
Seat Share: Con and Lab both around 300 with Lib Dems winning 0 - 5 seats making a coalition impossible. General Election held in November 2015 or Grand Coalition

[Del Tachi]

My prediction -

Conservatives win an overall majority for the first time since 1992 winning somewhere around 315 - 325 seats

[YL]

My personal feelings are:
Vote Share: Con 30%, Lab 30%, UKIP 20%, Lib Dem 10%, Others 10%
Seat Share: Con and Lab both around 300 with Lib Dems winning 0 - 5 seats making a coalition impossible. General Election held in November 2015 or Grand Coalition

0-5 seats for your party?  That makes Dan Hodges look like an optimist.

[Cassius]

My personal feelings are:
Vote Share: Con 30%, Lab 30%, UKIP 20%, Lib Dem 10%, Others 10%
Seat Share: Con and Lab both around 300 with Lib Dems winning 0 - 5 seats making a coalition impossible. General Election held in November 2015 or Grand Coalition

0-5 seats for your party?  That makes Dan Hodges look like an optimist.

But Dan Hodges isn't a supporter of the Labour Party anymore (or so I read). So he is a very optimistic man.

My prediction -

Conservatives win an overall majority for the first time since 1992 winning somewhere around 315 - 325 seats

That, technically, wouldn't be enough for a majority (it's 326 seats, and even then, that probably wouldn't last a full parliamentary session), and also, why so optimistic? Whilst I'm coming round to the view that the Tories won't do that badly, I still can't see them holding onto and/or increasing their current vote share and gaining seats. At best, I can see Labour either being the largest party in parliament without a majority, or winning a small one. At best I see the Tories geting 260-290 seats.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

My personal feelings are:
Vote Share: Con 30%, Lab 30%, UKIP 20%, Lib Dem 10%, Others 10%
Seat Share: Con and Lab both around 300 with Lib Dems winning 0 - 5 seats making a coalition impossible. General Election held in November 2015 or Grand Coalition

I think if UKIP manage to reach 20% they will almost certainly grab a fair handful of seats even with FPTP, meaning they can probably enter a coalition. Not that I think UKIP winning that much is very likely.

[Hifly]

Harry Hayfield's prediction is clearly a joke. Don't take it so seriously.

[MaxQue]

My prediction -

Conservatives win an overall majority for the first time since 1992 winning somewhere around 315 - 325 seats

315-325 isn't a majority. 325 is exactly 50% of seats.

[EPG]

Harry Hayfield's prediction is clearly a joke. Don't take it so seriously.

Correct. A 600-seat Grand Coalition!

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Harry Hayfield's prediction is clearly a joke. Don't take it so seriously.

Correct. A 600-seat Grand Coalition!

Oh haha, I didn't notice that last bit

[EPG]

Accounting for Sinn Féin's 5 abstentionist MPs, the tipping point of a majority government is 323 seats. Labour could almost surely rely on the support of the 3 SDLP MPs for important business, which means their tipping point is 320. But in practice, these numbers would lead to an inter-party agreement or a new election pretty soon.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We should also not forget that the DUP are openly corrupt: they put themselves on sale quite willingly at times and are happy to be bought.

[doktorb]

My personal feelings are:
Vote Share: Con 30%, Lab 30%, UKIP 20%, Lib Dem 10%, Others 10%
Seat Share: Con and Lab both around 300 with Lib Dems winning 0 - 5 seats making a coalition impossible. General Election held in November 2015 or Grand Coalition

300 seats each for the Conservative and Labour parties and up to 5 for us? Check your writings, Harry!

[ChrisDR68]

Conservatives 36%
Labour 33%
Liberal Democrats 14%
UK Independence Party 9%
Others 8%

Tories 294 seats, Labour 291, Lib Dems 36, UKIP 0, Others 29

Anyone's guess what will happen if the result is anything like this. Clegg would probably step down though to be replaced by Farren as another coalition with Clegg there would do the LibDems nothing but more harm.

[You kip if you want to...]

Conservatives 36%
Labour 33%
Liberal Democrats 14%
UK Independence Party 9%
Others 8%

Tories 294 seats, Labour 291, Lib Dems 36, UKIP 0, Others 29

Anyone's guess what will happen if the result is anything like this. Clegg would probably step down though to be replaced by Farren as another coalition with Clegg there would do the LibDems nothing but more harm.

Tory minority or another Tory-LD.

[Harry Hayfield]

My personal feelings are:
Vote Share: Con 30%, Lab 30%, UKIP 20%, Lib Dem 10%, Others 10%
Seat Share: Con and Lab both around 300 with Lib Dems winning 0 - 5 seats making a coalition impossible. General Election held in November 2015 or Grand Coalition

300 seats each for the Conservative and Labour parties and up to 5 for us? Check your writings, Harry!

Running through UK-Elect: Lab 305, Con 303, SNP 9, UKIP 7, Plaid 4, Lib Dem 2, Green 1, National Health Action 1, Northern Ireland 18 (Hung Parliament)

Coalitions:
Conservatives + Unionists (DUP = 311 (Not a workable coalition, short of 323)
Labour + SNP + Plaid + SDLP = 321 (Not a workable coalition, too many parties)

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

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As suggested above, I would expect Lib Dem defectors to generally break towards Labour.

The Tories would have won Bolton West if the boundaries were the same as they were in Major's day.  (I was an elector in Bolton West in 2010.)

Bolton West contains Bolton's last remaining Lib Dem ward, the middle-class area of Smithills, and it's telling that the Lib Dems are coming under severe pressure there from Labour, who have never won the ward and were running a very poor third until 2008.

[Supersonic]

Conservatives 36%
Labour 33%
Liberal Democrats 14%
UK Independence Party 9%
Others 8%

Tories 294 seats, Labour 291, Lib Dems 36, UKIP 0, Others 29

Anyone's guess what will happen if the result is anything like this. Clegg would probably step down though to be replaced by Farren as another coalition with Clegg there would do the LibDems nothing but more harm.

This is pretty close to my prediction at the moment.

[doktorb]

Conservatives 36%
Labour 33%
Liberal Democrats 14%
UK Independence Party 9%
Others 8%

Tories 294 seats, Labour 291, Lib Dems 36, UKIP 0, Others 29

Anyone's guess what will happen if the result is anything like this. Clegg would probably step down though to be replaced by Farren as another coalition with Clegg there would do the LibDems nothing but more harm.

In that case the LibDem.s would surely make a coalition with Labour!

*strokes chin*

[You kip if you want to...]

Conservatives 36%
Labour 33%
Liberal Democrats 14%
UK Independence Party 9%
Others 8%

Tories 294 seats, Labour 291, Lib Dems 36, UKIP 0, Others 29

Anyone's guess what will happen if the result is anything like this. Clegg would probably step down though to be replaced by Farren as another coalition with Clegg there would do the LibDems nothing but more harm.

In that case the LibDem.s would surely make a coalition with Labour!

*strokes chin*

Something tells me that Farron would be no more open to Labour than Clegg would be. I seem to remember him mouthing off at one of the by-election counts (Barnsley?) about how Labour have all gone Marxist since 2010.

Lab-Lib would be a disaster for all involved.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yeah, it would be a fantastic way for the Lib Dems to alienate their remaining (right-wing) base. I doubt they're that suicidal.

I mean I, personally, wouldn't mind a Lab-Lib coalition (as long as Laws is excluded, and they're not allowed anywhere near Health); but all the Labour partisans I know would flip a gasket.