UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[doktorb]

I'm a LibDem of 14 years and counting. A Lab/Lib coalition is the last thing I want.

[EPG]

Conservatives 36%
Labour 33%
Liberal Democrats 14%
UK Independence Party 9%
Others 8%

Tories 294 seats, Labour 291, Lib Dems 36, UKIP 0, Others 29

Anyone's guess what will happen if the result is anything like this. Clegg would probably step down though to be replaced by Farren as another coalition with Clegg there would do the LibDems nothing but more harm.

294 + 36 = 330 = very tenuous continuation of the coalition. Both Clegg and Cameron have the benefit of incumbency. Cameron could probably quit in his own time under those numbers if he keeps his promise to hold an EU referendum, which will encourage Conservative MPs to keep backing him and the coalition; Clegg steps down once the Lib Dems quit government, to serve as scapegoat for the sins of the coalition. Therefore, Labour and Lib Dems would vote against a Tory minority. I think if the Lib Dems get 36 seats, they'll be delighted, not in a mood for decapitation. I think they are more likely to get about 20 seats.

[BaconBacon96]

So does anyone here think UKIP will pick up any seats?

[ChrisDR68]

Conservatives 36%
Labour 33%
Liberal Democrats 14%
UK Independence Party 9%
Others 8%

Tories 294 seats, Labour 291, Lib Dems 36, UKIP 0, Others 29

Anyone's guess what will happen if the result is anything like this. Clegg would probably step down though to be replaced by Farren as another coalition with Clegg there would do the LibDems nothing but more harm.

294 + 36 = 330 = very tenuous continuation of the coalition. Both Clegg and Cameron have the benefit of incumbency. Cameron could probably quit in his own time under those numbers if he keeps his promise to hold an EU referendum, which will encourage Conservative MPs to keep backing him and the coalition; Clegg steps down once the Lib Dems quit government, to serve as scapegoat for the sins of the coalition. Therefore, Labour and Lib Dems would vote against a Tory minority. I think if the Lib Dems get 36 seats, they'll be delighted, not in a mood for decapitation. I think they are more likely to get about 20 seats.

This is the article ( http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2014/02/05/why-the-libdem-seats-will-win-30-35-seats-in-2015 ) I'm basing my prediction of 36 LibDem seats on. Iain Dale is a Tory supporting journalist so he's no particular friend of the Libs.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Is there any coalition that LibDems could be apart of and not completely destroy themselves?

[Enno von Loewenstern]

So does anyone here think UKIP will pick up any seats?

Yes, I do, sir.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/05/where-will-nigel-farage-stand-2015

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Conservatives 36%
Labour 33%
Liberal Democrats 14%
UK Independence Party 9%
Others 8%

Tories 294 seats, Labour 291, Lib Dems 36, UKIP 0, Others 29

Anyone's guess what will happen if the result is anything like this. Clegg would probably step down though to be replaced by Farren as another coalition with Clegg there would do the LibDems nothing but more harm.

294 + 36 = 330 = very tenuous continuation of the coalition. Both Clegg and Cameron have the benefit of incumbency. Cameron could probably quit in his own time under those numbers if he keeps his promise to hold an EU referendum, which will encourage Conservative MPs to keep backing him and the coalition; Clegg steps down once the Lib Dems quit government, to serve as scapegoat for the sins of the coalition. Therefore, Labour and Lib Dems would vote against a Tory minority. I think if the Lib Dems get 36 seats, they'll be delighted, not in a mood for decapitation. I think they are more likely to get about 20 seats.

This is the article ( http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2014/02/05/why-the-libdem-seats-will-win-30-35-seats-in-2015 ) I'm basing my prediction of 36 LibDem seats on. Iain Dale is a Tory supporting journalist so he's no particular friend of the Libs.

I think he's being way too kind to the Scottish Lib Dems here. Predictions like Danny Alexander's seat being a "Definite Lib Dem Hold", seems to be way out of the mark - in the 2011 the Lib Dems fell to fourth place in Inverness and Bairn; and were eviscerated in the (proportional!) council. See also Gordon - which in 2015 will have no incumbent - marked as safe.
.
Frankly, especially with some high profile retirements, the only safe Scottish Lib Dem seat is Alastair Carmichael in the Shetlands. The only thing that can save the Highlands seats is  SNP stagnation (they often perform worse in Westminster than Holyrood elections.

Conversely, he seems remarkably sure that Lib Dems will have significant defections to the Tories (especially in the South West), while underestimating the extent of bleeding to the left (especially in urban constituencies: see his predictions for Leeds North West; Bermondsy and Southwark; Haringey and Wood Green, Bristol West, Cardiff Central etc.

Is there any coalition that LibDems could be apart of and not completely destroy themselves?

I think if the Lib Dems continue to shift right, they can conceivably remain in relatively uncontroversial Lib-Con coalitions.

[MaxQue]

So does anyone here think UKIP will pick up any seats?

Yes, I do, sir.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/05/where-will-nigel-farage-stand-2015

Given than you are our eurosceptic resident hack, I don't know it's possible to consider your opinion as being something else than partisan wishful thinking.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

So does anyone here think UKIP will pick up any seats?

Yes, I do, sir.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/05/where-will-nigel-farage-stand-2015

Given than you are our eurosceptic resident hack, I don't know it's possible to consider your opinion as being something else than partisan wishful thinking.

First of all, it is the thinking of the NewStatesman's author, but yes, I share his views. Secondly, why should a Europhile be a better judge over UKIP's perspektives, or why should left-wing views about Conservatives and vice versa not be considered? Also, wishful thinking could go in both directions, couldn't it? If you do not like me to point out to this article, which comes up with a few answers to the question: just don't read it and stay with your preconceived opinion. But if you read it, tell us where the author gone wrong instead of calling me hack. Just try to be open minded.

[MaxQue]

So does anyone here think UKIP will pick up any seats?

Yes, I do, sir.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/05/where-will-nigel-farage-stand-2015

Given than you are our eurosceptic resident hack, I don't know it's possible to consider your opinion as being something else than partisan wishful thinking.

First of all, it is the thinking of the NewStatesman's author, but yes, I share his views. Secondly, why should a Europhile be a better judge over UKIP's perspektives, or why should left-wing views about Conservatives and vice versa not be considered? Also, wishful thinking could go in both directions, couldn't it? If you do not like me to point out to this article, which comes up with a few answers to the question: just don't read it and stay with your preconceived opinion. But if you read it, tell us where the author gone wrong instead of calling me hack. Just try to be open minded.

It's outdated, Farage confirmed a few weeks ago than he will run somewhere in Kent. Boston and Skegness is in Lincolnshire and the local UKIP imploded since 2013 there (they are now sitting in three groups. 11 in UKIP, 3 in "Independence from Europe" and 2 with "Lincolnshire Independents").

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Most likely he runs in Folkestone or one of the Thanets.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

So does anyone here think UKIP will pick up any seats?

Yes, I do, sir.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/05/where-will-nigel-farage-stand-2015

Given than you are our eurosceptic resident hack, I don't know it's possible to consider your opinion as being something else than partisan wishful thinking.

First of all, it is the thinking of the NewStatesman's author, but yes, I share his views. Secondly, why should a Europhile be a better judge over UKIP's perspektives, or why should left-wing views about Conservatives and vice versa not be considered? Also, wishful thinking could go in both directions, couldn't it? If you do not like me to point out to this article, which comes up with a few answers to the question: just don't read it and stay with your preconceived opinion. But if you read it, tell us where the author gone wrong instead of calling me hack. Just try to be open minded.

It's outdated, Farage confirmed a few weeks ago than he will run somewhere in Kent. Boston and Skegness is in Lincolnshire and the local UKIP imploded since 2013 there (they are now sitting in three groups. 11 in UKIP, 3 in "Independence from Europe" and 2 with "Lincolnshire Independents").

You are absolutly right, that it is outdated! I have just found out just now, thanks to your advice, that it was published 7 May, 2013 and not 2014. F**k google news!

So, what to think about this one?: http://www.ukipdaily.com/general-election-2015-ukip-hotspots/#.U3gVqi9pTsE Wishful thinking, reasonable, or both?

[MaxQue]

So does anyone here think UKIP will pick up any seats?

Yes, I do, sir.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/05/where-will-nigel-farage-stand-2015

Given than you are our eurosceptic resident hack, I don't know it's possible to consider your opinion as being something else than partisan wishful thinking.

First of all, it is the thinking of the NewStatesman's author, but yes, I share his views. Secondly, why should a Europhile be a better judge over UKIP's perspektives, or why should left-wing views about Conservatives and vice versa not be considered? Also, wishful thinking could go in both directions, couldn't it? If you do not like me to point out to this article, which comes up with a few answers to the question: just don't read it and stay with your preconceived opinion. But if you read it, tell us where the author gone wrong instead of calling me hack. Just try to be open minded.

It's outdated, Farage confirmed a few weeks ago than he will run somewhere in Kent. Boston and Skegness is in Lincolnshire and the local UKIP imploded since 2013 there (they are now sitting in three groups. 11 in UKIP, 3 in "Independence from Europe" and 2 with "Lincolnshire Independents").

You are absolutly right, that it is outdated! I have just found out just now, thanks to your advice, that it was published 7 May, 2013 and not 2014. F**k google news!

So, what to think about this one?: http://www.ukipdaily.com/general-election-2015-ukip-hotspots/#.U3gVqi9pTsE Wishful thinking, reasonable, or both?

Good analysis, but it shows than UKIP won only 2 seats of those, in a low turnout local elections. UKIP won plenty of areas in 2009 Euros, but 0 seats in the 2010 legislative election. The main difference between those elections is turnout and high turnout seems to favorize big parties, with big machines to get the voters out. Also, some voters use Euros to sent messages, but will return to their party for other elections. We will be able to make a more educated prediction after 2014 locals.

Also, in ridings like "Camborne and Redruth" and other close seats, no doubt than both close parties will have a strong ground campaign there, with leaflets highlighting than it was a two-horse race last time and than UKIP is far, far, far behind (ever heard of the dodgy UK bar charts?)

[doktorb]

So does anyone here think UKIP will pick up any seats?

UKIP will fail to pick up any seats. They will, I suspect, hand the election to Labour.

[EPG]

Is there any coalition that LibDems could be apart of and not completely destroy themselves?

Yeah, sure. It's not at all clear yet that they will have destroyed themselves after the current coalition. They are still more popular than the typical European centrist liberal party, they still have powerful forces in a few county councils and they run some urban council areas like Stockport and, ahem, Portsmouth. They didn't destroy themselves after getting tiny seat totals in the past, and I think there are enough people who like them still out there.

As for UKIP, they could win Eastleigh and Farage's seat, and beyond that, I find it hard to see how they will be resilient in a general election.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Conservatives 36%
Labour 33%
Liberal Democrats 14%
UK Independence Party 9%
Others 8%

Tories 294 seats, Labour 291, Lib Dems 36, UKIP 0, Others 29

Anyone's guess what will happen if the result is anything like this. Clegg would probably step down though to be replaced by Farren as another coalition with Clegg there would do the LibDems nothing but more harm.

294 + 36 = 330 = very tenuous continuation of the coalition. Both Clegg and Cameron have the benefit of incumbency. Cameron could probably quit in his own time under those numbers if he keeps his promise to hold an EU referendum, which will encourage Conservative MPs to keep backing him and the coalition; Clegg steps down once the Lib Dems quit government, to serve as scapegoat for the sins of the coalition. Therefore, Labour and Lib Dems would vote against a Tory minority. I think if the Lib Dems get 36 seats, they'll be delighted, not in a mood for decapitation. I think they are more likely to get about 20 seats.

This is the article ( http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2014/02/05/why-the-libdem-seats-will-win-30-35-seats-in-2015 ) I'm basing my prediction of 36 LibDem seats on. Iain Dale is a Tory supporting journalist so he's no particular friend of the Libs.

I think he's being way too kind to the Scottish Lib Dems here. Predictions like Danny Alexander's seat being a "Definite Lib Dem Hold", seems to be way out of the mark - in the 2011 the Lib Dems fell to fourth place in Inverness and Bairn; and were eviscerated in the (proportional!) council. See also Gordon - which in 2015 will have no incumbent - marked as safe.

Anyone who knows anything about Highland voting patterns knows not to draw too many conclusions from local elections.  The independent vote is too high.  Aberdeenshire, on the other hand, is more party political.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Conservatives 36%
Labour 33%
Liberal Democrats 14%
UK Independence Party 9%
Others 8%

Tories 294 seats, Labour 291, Lib Dems 36, UKIP 0, Others 29

Anyone's guess what will happen if the result is anything like this. Clegg would probably step down though to be replaced by Farren as another coalition with Clegg there would do the LibDems nothing but more harm.

294 + 36 = 330 = very tenuous continuation of the coalition. Both Clegg and Cameron have the benefit of incumbency. Cameron could probably quit in his own time under those numbers if he keeps his promise to hold an EU referendum, which will encourage Conservative MPs to keep backing him and the coalition; Clegg steps down once the Lib Dems quit government, to serve as scapegoat for the sins of the coalition. Therefore, Labour and Lib Dems would vote against a Tory minority. I think if the Lib Dems get 36 seats, they'll be delighted, not in a mood for decapitation. I think they are more likely to get about 20 seats.

This is the article ( http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2014/02/05/why-the-libdem-seats-will-win-30-35-seats-in-2015 ) I'm basing my prediction of 36 LibDem seats on. Iain Dale is a Tory supporting journalist so he's no particular friend of the Libs.

I think he's being way too kind to the Scottish Lib Dems here. Predictions like Danny Alexander's seat being a "Definite Lib Dem Hold", seems to be way out of the mark - in the 2011 the Lib Dems fell to fourth place in Inverness and Bairn; and were eviscerated in the (proportional!) council. See also Gordon - which in 2015 will have no incumbent - marked as safe.

Anyone who knows anything about Highland voting patterns knows not to draw too many conclusions from local elections.  The independent vote is too high.  Aberdeenshire, on the other hand, is more party political.

True, I'm not saying that Alexander is dead (in the same way that, say, Jo Swinson is). But the idea that he is 'safe' seems ... presumptuous.

[afleitch]

Charlie Kennedy is safe. The only place where people don't make fun of Danny Alexander is in his own seat. He remains a fairly popular MP. The main challengers in his seat are Labour who, in a good year for them in 2010, fell back. The SNP will only rise in that seat if they can tap the Lib Dem vote. They won't here. Might end up a 3 way marginal but I see it as a Lib Dem hold. Viscount Thurso is still lord of all he surveys in Caithness. I wouldn't be surprised if the Lib Dems hold all 3.

The SNP will gain Gordon because Malcolm Bruce is standing down. Menzies is standing down in North East Fife so that seat is up for play. In all honesty there will be a lot of 'churn' in the seat; voters aren't aware who is best placed to win here if they don't like the Lib Dems. The SNP sit 4th, yet won here in 2011 at Holyrood. Glenrothes next door (an SNP stronghold at Holyrood) is out of their grasp (despite Lindsay Roy and his magic Mary Poppins postal vote bag chucking it) so they need to pick what seat to invest in.

The other MP's standing down include Frank Doran in Aberdeen North which Labour will retain.

Stirling will be interesting because Ann Macguire, MP since 1997 is standing down. She, like Michael Forsyth before her has a very solid personal vote. The Tories are perpetually second here but the areas has been SNP at Holyrood since 2007. This might help Labour retain it but the seat is probably more vulnerable than it looks.

Eric Joyce is out. He's been by his lonesome since 2012 so Labour shouldn't be damaged too much. Again it's an SNP target seat.

The most likely seats to switch remain the seats where the incumbent is standing down.

[Gary J]

Clement Davies, the then Liberal Party leader, rejected Churchill's offer of a cabinet post in 1951. If the offer had been accepted, it probably would have been the end of the Liberal Party as an independent political force. The refusal of office permitted the Liberal Party to resume (modest) growth later in the decade and beyond, not least in the Scottish Highlands.

The Liberal Party in 1951 was much weaker than the Liberal Democrats today. The Party had been in almost continuous decline since the split in 1916 (with only minor revivals in 1923 and 1929). Of the 6 MPs elected in 1951, three were from Wales (Davies from Montgomeryshire, Roderic Bowen from Cardiganshire and Rhys Hopkin Morris from Carmarthen) and two from England (D.W. Wade from Huddersfield West and A.F. Holt from Bolton West); all elected without a Conservative opponent. The one MP who had one a three cornered race, was the future leader Jo Grimond from the Scottish constituency of Orkney and Shetland. 

[YL]

Charlie Kennedy is safe. The only place where people don't make fun of Danny Alexander is in his own seat. He remains a fairly popular MP. The main challengers in his seat are Labour who, in a good year for them in 2010, fell back. The SNP will only rise in that seat if they can tap the Lib Dem vote. They won't here. Might end up a 3 way marginal but I see it as a Lib Dem hold. Viscount Thurso is still lord of all he surveys in Caithness. I wouldn't be surprised if the Lib Dems hold all 3.

The SNP will gain Gordon because Malcolm Bruce is standing down. Menzies is standing down in North East Fife so that seat is up for play. In all honesty there will be a lot of 'churn' in the seat; voters aren't aware who is best placed to win here if they don't like the Lib Dems. The SNP sit 4th, yet won here in 2011 at Holyrood. Glenrothes next door (an SNP stronghold at Holyrood) is out of their grasp (despite Lindsay Roy and his magic Mary Poppins postal vote bag chucking it) so they need to pick what seat to invest in.

I agree that Kennedy is not going to lose; the only way that seat is interesting is if he stands down.  I wouldn't be quite so confident about Alexander and Thurso, though I would agree that Thurso at least is favourite to hold on.  The Highlands Lib Dems took an awful mauling in the 2011 Scottish Parliament election.

I think that if the Lib Dems are in trouble in North East Fife with the loss of Ming Campbell's personal vote, the SNP are the most likely beneficiaries given the Holyrood result, but I could be wrong.  I would make the Lib Dems favourites there.

[doktorb]

Istr Charles has been reselected.

[afleitch]

A bit of perspective here because right now the polls are susceptible to 'churn'

This is how the parties were polling, on average, in the week before the European elections in 2009

CON 37.1
LAB 21.1
LIB 17.8
OTH 23.4

I'm not exactly sure what % UKIP were polling nationally out of the 'others'. I wouldn't be surprised if it's not far from what they are getting now. Coincidently at the actual European Election, both Labour and the Tories polled 74-75% of what they were getting in the Westminster opinion polls and the Lib Dems 77%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would be surprised if their vote isn't comparatively evenly distributed again; it was in the locals last year, even, if you remember.

[joevsimp]

The EP-election was an other bad news for Labour: The OpinionPolls claimed Lab. to be between UKIP and Con. - and suddenly they ended neck-to-neck with the latter!

I believe that Labour are hoping that Labour voters who voted for UKIP will vote for Labour at the general election, while Tory voters will vote for UKIP, clearly having learned absolutely nothing from their issues with the BNP over the last ten years or so

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The EP-election was an other bad news for Labour: The OpinionPolls claimed Lab. to be between UKIP and Con. - and suddenly they ended neck-to-neck with the latter!

I believe that Labour are hoping that Labour voters who voted for UKIP will vote for Labour at the general election, while Tory voters will vote for UKIP, clearly having learned absolutely nothing from their issues with the BNP over the last ten years or so

To be fair UKIP and the BNP are entirely different kettles of fish. The Tories were largely safe from the BNP, who could never escape their thuggish roots. UKIP, however, are palatable enough to completely hoover up the conservative working class  ("Essex men") portion of the Tories' base and take a fair wedge of other aspirational Tories in the Home Counties and Midlands.

I think most ancestral Labour voters that are voting UKIP in 2015, would have probably jumped ship around New Labour. To be cynical, Labour doesn't need them back to win a majority.