UK General Election - May 7th 2015
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  UK General Election - May 7th 2015
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015  (Read 275004 times)
rob in cal
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« Reply #125 on: May 26, 2014, 01:18:36 PM »

    I realize its not likely, but if there was a UKIP-Tory electoral pact for the General Election, what would it look like? 
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CrabCake
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« Reply #126 on: May 26, 2014, 01:49:07 PM »

Probably tit-for-tat deals: UKIP would agree not to run in Con-Lab and Con-Lib marginals, in "payment" not running in wherever UKIP are targeting or shared resources. Perhaps some "fusion voting" going on - MP's being elected as Conservative - UKIP.

Not that it'll happen as you rightly point out. Farage is far too clever for that kind of trick.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #127 on: May 26, 2014, 04:41:16 PM »

OMG YL, have you seen this

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/nick-clegg-and-lib-dems-face-battle-for-survival

I doubt it, but it would make my first general election vote extremely worthwhile if I got to uproot a party leader.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #128 on: May 26, 2014, 05:42:37 PM »

OMG YL, have you seen this

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/nick-clegg-and-lib-dems-face-battle-for-survival

I doubt it, but it would make my first general election vote extremely worthwhile if I got to uproot a party leader.

Too good to be true and the local results don't reflect these polls. But still, I feel that every single one of their MPs will be terrified by these numbers.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #129 on: May 26, 2014, 06:59:41 PM »

OMG YL, have you seen this

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/nick-clegg-and-lib-dems-face-battle-for-survival

I doubt it, but it would make my first general election vote extremely worthwhile if I got to uproot a party leader.

A lot of journalistic over-reaction. The EU elections are not taken seriously by anyone in the UK so it's a perfect opportunity for a protest vote. What does the European Parliament do that can't be over ruled by the Commission for example?

I'm not a big fan of Clegg (a third rate actor who comes across as insincere) but I'm guessing the Lib Dem vote will shore-up during the election campaign in April 2015 and they'll win at least 30-35 seats.

After that what happens next depends on the mathematics of the election result just as it did in May 2010.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #130 on: May 26, 2014, 07:50:38 PM »

OMG YL, have you seen this

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/nick-clegg-and-lib-dems-face-battle-for-survival

I doubt it, but it would make my first general election vote extremely worthwhile if I got to uproot a party leader.

A lot of journalistic over-reaction. The EU elections are not taken seriously by anyone in the UK so it's a perfect opportunity for a protest vote. What does the European Parliament do that can't be over ruled by the Commission for example?

I'm not a big fan of Clegg (a third rate actor who comes across as insincere) but I'm guessing the Lib Dem vote will shore-up during the election campaign in April 2015 and they'll win at least 30-35 seats.

After that what happens next depends on the mathematics of the election result just as it did in May 2010.

They won one council area yesterday and even that was close.

That's more than just the election just being a free-hit...
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YL
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« Reply #131 on: May 27, 2014, 01:42:25 AM »

OMG YL, have you seen this

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/nick-clegg-and-lib-dems-face-battle-for-survival

I doubt it, but it would make my first general election vote extremely worthwhile if I got to uproot a party leader.

It's a leaked internal poll, and the numbers are crazy, so it deserves a certain amount of scepticism.  I don't find it implausible that Clegg is doing worse than the council candidates, but I don't believe he's on 23%.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #132 on: May 27, 2014, 10:35:09 AM »

Watching Neil Hamilton on the BBC the other night was the final confirmation for me that satire is dead.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #133 on: May 27, 2014, 10:40:04 AM »

Watching Neil Hamilton on the BBC the other night was the final confirmation for me that satire is dead.

I'm amazed that no one waved a brown paper envelope about when replying to him.
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doktorb
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« Reply #134 on: May 28, 2014, 12:17:46 AM »

OMG YL, have you seen this

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/nick-clegg-and-lib-dems-face-battle-for-survival

I doubt it, but it would make my first general election vote extremely worthwhile if I got to uproot a party leader.

I wouldn't give much credence to that poll
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #135 on: May 28, 2014, 01:01:16 AM »

Polls taken at this point in time are still leaking European Elections mindsets, not GE mindsets
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CrabCake
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« Reply #136 on: May 28, 2014, 01:34:56 AM »

OMG YL, have you seen this

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/nick-clegg-and-lib-dems-face-battle-for-survival

I doubt it, but it would make my first general election vote extremely worthwhile if I got to uproot a party leader.

I wouldn't give much credence to that poll

Well, obviously; but it's still mad.

I wonder if Oakeshott will be kicked out of the party for this? I don't know how much loyalty is enforced in the Lords, but surely this crosses some sort of line...
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YL
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« Reply #137 on: May 28, 2014, 07:04:54 AM »

I wonder if Oakeshott will be kicked out of the party for this? I don't know how much loyalty is enforced in the Lords, but surely this crosses some sort of line...

Oakeshott has resigned from the party.  His parting shot includes two more constituency polls, one in Twickenham showing Cable narrowly behind (Con 34 LD 32 Lab 23 UKIP 5) and one in Inverness et al showing Alexander in a poor third (SNP 32 Lab 25 LD 16 Con 12 UKIP 7).

(Statement here.)
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #138 on: May 28, 2014, 07:30:44 AM »

I wonder if Oakeshott will be kicked out of the party for this? I don't know how much loyalty is enforced in the Lords, but surely this crosses some sort of line...

Oakeshott has resigned from the party.  His parting shot includes two more constituency polls, one in Twickenham showing Cable narrowly behind (Con 34 LD 32 Lab 23 UKIP 5) and one in Inverness et al showing Alexander in a poor third (SNP 32 Lab 25 LD 16 Con 12 UKIP 7).

(Statement here.)

He gets forced out for saying what literally everyone thinks about Clegg, but someone like Rennard gets to stay. Stay classy LibDems.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #139 on: May 28, 2014, 08:25:29 AM »

I've watched Oakeshott in interviews on numerous occasions on tv and each time he came across as a head strong tetchy idiot.

Ironically the polls he conducted (which used tiny sample sizes) seem to show the Lib Dems would do only marginally better if his hero Vince Cable was leader.

The main problem they have with their ex-voters from 2005 and 2010 is that they went into coalition with the hated Tories and not that Clegg is the party leader (although obviously that is a major problem too).

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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #140 on: May 28, 2014, 10:01:17 AM »

I've watched Oakeshott in interviews on numerous occasions on tv and each time he came across as a head strong tetchy idiot.

Ironically the polls he conducted (which used tiny sample sizes) seem to show the Lib Dems would do only marginally better if his hero Vince Cable was leader.

The main problem they have with their ex-voters from 2005 and 2010 is that they went into coalition with the hated Tories and not that Clegg is the party leader (although obviously that is a major problem too).



Cable was the architect of the tuition fee policy. Hardly difficult to see that he's as much of a dead-man-walking as Clegg is.
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joevsimp
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« Reply #141 on: May 28, 2014, 02:52:09 PM »

they're too far gone to do anything before the election, the best they can do is damage control and rebuild with Farron at the helm
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CrabCake
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« Reply #142 on: May 28, 2014, 03:53:14 PM »

The tragic thing about the Lib Dems is they need to be built into a party of coherent ideology, unlike the loosely defined pre-2010 mess. That means either switching to FDP-style classical liberalism or a progressive social democratic party. Clegg, is broadly sympathetic to the former, but his actions in the coalition seem more inspired by bland centrism. To a degree, Farron is the same - bravely umming and erring through this parliament.

In a way, 2015 could help the Lib Dems lose their dead wood. Whatever happens, their parliamentary nutters - Dave Ward, John Hemmings, Mike Hancock etc. - are dead in the water. Shame that the only two people competent enough to lead the party as a coherent idealogical group - Chris Huhne or David Laws - were dethroned by scandals.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #143 on: May 28, 2014, 07:39:10 PM »

The tragic thing about the Lib Dems is they need to be built into a party of coherent ideology, unlike the loosely defined pre-2010 mess. That means either switching to FDP-style classical liberalism or a progressive social democratic party. Clegg, is broadly sympathetic to the former, but his actions in the coalition seem more inspired by bland centrism. To a degree, Farron is the same - bravely umming and erring through this parliament.

In a way, 2015 could help the Lib Dems lose their dead wood. Whatever happens, their parliamentary nutters - Dave Ward, John Hemmings, Mike Hancock etc. - are dead in the water. Shame that the only two people competent enough to lead the party as a coherent idealogical group - Chris Huhne or David Laws - were dethroned by scandals.

FDP-style classical liberalism is unlikely to win many if any seats under FPTP, least of all the type of seats that the Lib Dems currently hold.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #144 on: May 28, 2014, 07:47:40 PM »

FDP-style classical liberalism is unlikely to win many if any seats under FPTP, least of all the type of seats that the Lib Dems currently hold.

Well, maybe Twickenham. LOL
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Gary J
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« Reply #145 on: May 29, 2014, 09:30:34 AM »

There is no point in dropping Nick Clegg now. Whoever inherited the poisoned chalice would still be yoked to the Conservatives in the coalition. There is no sign that a new leader would significantly improve the situation.

It is better that Clegg suffer the defeat in 2015. He will then either lose his seat (so as to no longer be eligible to remain leader under the party constitution) or more or less willingly resign. Either option would cause less damage to the long term party interest than a pre-election civil war.

The question of who the next leader will be can be postponed to the next Parliament. It will largely depend on who retains their seat. My personal tip, assuming Scotland does not become independent, is former Chief Whip and current Scottish Secretary Alistair Carmichael  (Orkney and Shetland). He is the most likely Scottish MP and coalition cabinet member, to survive into the next Parliament.

However I have always supported a losing candidate in Liberal/Lib Dem leadership elections, so I may not be the best person to predict what will happen.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #146 on: May 29, 2014, 02:14:34 PM »

The tragic thing about the Lib Dems is they need to be built into a party of coherent ideology, unlike the loosely defined pre-2010 mess. That means either switching to FDP-style classical liberalism or a progressive social democratic party. Clegg, is broadly sympathetic to the former, but his actions in the coalition seem more inspired by bland centrism. To a degree, Farron is the same - bravely umming and erring through this parliament.

I'm not sure it's possible for a centrist political party to have a coherent ideology (by which I take it you mean a rigid ideology more or less set in stone).

All three of the main parties are coalitions between libertarian right and statist left (in terms of economics). Libertarianism dominates in the Tory Party and statism dominates in the Labour Party (although less than it used to).

The Lib Dems straddle the two being more in favour of the public sector and state interference in the running of the economy than the Tories but less than Labour.

A middle of the road position probably mirrored by a good portion (possibly even a majority) of the British people.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #147 on: May 30, 2014, 05:28:14 PM »

How do you rate Naomi Long's chances of retaining her seat?

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ObserverIE
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« Reply #148 on: May 30, 2014, 07:27:03 PM »

How do you rate Naomi Long's chances of retaining her seat?

A good deal less than 50:50, thanks to Fleggate and the efforts of Loyalist paramilitaries in cahoots with the two main Unionist parties to get rid of her. It's the one seat in Northern Ireland which is likely to shift next time.

Only possible fly in the ointment would be if TUV were to stand as a fleggier-than-thou spoiler.
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Meeker
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« Reply #149 on: May 31, 2014, 06:10:41 PM »

Is there a British news org that just covers British politics? Something like Politico or Roll Call?
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