UK General Election - May 7th 2015
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015  (Read 274998 times)
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CrabCake
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« Reply #200 on: July 03, 2014, 06:02:20 PM »
« edited: July 03, 2014, 06:06:15 PM by CrabCake »

Labour's net gain from Lib Dems is just % margin Lab - C. Lots of Lib Dems will be going to NOTA, some to UKIP and some to Greens, which are all useless to Labour. And some will even go Conservative. There is some reason why these people didn't vote Labour in 2010 and, often, for many years previously. (A classic example is Sheffield, Hallam, right? They've never chosen a Labour MP for years, if ever?)

My instinct would be to disagree, but I haven't seen any polls on 2010 Lib Dem voters and their 2015 intention, so I won't get bogged down in conjecture.

However, the rapid decline in Liberal polling numbers at the beginning of the coalition was mirrored by the Labour figures, so it seems the effect of progressives returning "to the flock" is not negligible. This could be enough to overwhelm the Tories in key Lab-Con marginals. Like you said, in Liberal territory like Sheffield Hallam everyone's psephology goes all screwy.

The Greens really lack the high status and sexiness to pull a good protest vote and I'd expect UKIP draw very little of its voter poll from people tempted by the Liberals (with the exception of the poor South West).
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #201 on: July 03, 2014, 06:21:04 PM »

(A classic example is Sheffield, Hallam, right? They've never chosen a Labour MP for years, if ever?)

You are correct.
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YL
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« Reply #202 on: July 04, 2014, 02:53:21 PM »

Yes. But the informed observer would have guessed there would be big swingback to Labour in these seats. They are mainly first-time, notional pick-ups for the Lib Dems, in what was their closest-ever election to Labour by a distance. You can categorise Redcar and Burnley in that bracket too, even though they're notionally safer, whereas the big Manchester, Withington swing is more interesting - Labour and the Lib Dems are back to their 2001 figures there. Anyway, this will be very much the tertiary battleground of the election. About a handful of seats are really up for grabs between the two parties. The net beneficiaries of the Lib Dem deflation will be the Tories if, as I think is likely, they end up with 20 to 30 seats.

There are 17 Lib Dem seats which would fall to Labour on a 10% swing with other parties standing still, plus Bristol West just beyond that threshold and perhaps a couple of longer shots.  (See the list in my post on the first page of this thread.)  Now, I don't expect Labour to win all 17 of those, and the SNP might have something to say about some of them, but most of them are worth watching.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #203 on: July 04, 2014, 03:01:46 PM »

Talking of the SNP, have we seen any general election polls just for Scotland? Will the Nats take advantage of their sweep in 2011? (Assuming a "No" vote in the referendum, of course)
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #204 on: July 04, 2014, 07:11:02 PM »

Talking of the SNP, have we seen any general election polls just for Scotland? Will the Nats take advantage of their sweep in 2011? (Assuming a "No" vote in the referendum, of course)

Some earlier in the parliament, but no 'proper' polls for Scotland in a while because of the referendum. What seems to be happening in Scotland, at a quick glance, is pretty noticeable fall for Labour, with no Gordon Brown and LibDems seem to be going to the SNP rather than Labour in most places.

Anything could happen to voting intentions up there after a 'no' vote though.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polls_scot.html
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EPG
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« Reply #205 on: July 06, 2014, 03:19:52 PM »

Yes. But the informed observer would have guessed there would be big swingback to Labour in these seats. They are mainly first-time, notional pick-ups for the Lib Dems, in what was their closest-ever election to Labour by a distance. You can categorise Redcar and Burnley in that bracket too, even though they're notionally safer, whereas the big Manchester, Withington swing is more interesting - Labour and the Lib Dems are back to their 2001 figures there. Anyway, this will be very much the tertiary battleground of the election. About a handful of seats are really up for grabs between the two parties. The net beneficiaries of the Lib Dem deflation will be the Tories if, as I think is likely, they end up with 20 to 30 seats.

There are 17 Lib Dem seats which would fall to Labour on a 10% swing with other parties standing still, plus Bristol West just beyond that threshold and perhaps a couple of longer shots.  (See the list in my post on the first page of this thread.)  Now, I don't expect Labour to win all 17 of those, and the SNP might have something to say about some of them, but most of them are worth watching.

I agree with the maths; my divergence is over swing. It's useful if one seat is like another. Lib Dem seats are more heterogenous than those of the other two parties. Redcar and Hornsey are almost equally safe against Labour on swing, but one is nailed-on Labour and the other looks like a real battle. Redcar's a more likely Labour gain than some of those <5% seats. This year of all years, other parties won't stand still. Lib Dems could lose lots to UKIP in the South West and the SNP in Scotland. Several of the 17 are more likely Conservative or SNP gains as the local Lib Dems are a fractious anti-Conservative coalition, often in anti-Labour rural territory. The Conservatives would come up through the middle and the SNP would fill the anti-Conservative role in the same manner as the Lib Dems. (My implicit assumption is that they could lose more to UKIP than the Conservatives in some seats. Lib Dems and UKIP represent different ideologies, of course. Politics is not about ideology.) Still, it's a good list to watch.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #206 on: July 07, 2014, 11:33:04 AM »

If one speaks about LAB's terrible losses to UKIP at EP and Newark, one should remind, that LAB-losses begin to outnumber those of the CON only, if UKIP climbs above ~16% - what happened 2014, but what won't happen 2015. So UKIP remains a grave problem for the Tories alone.

I wouldn't be so sure. UKIP present a problem to both parties, but in different measure. Both are losing significant parts of their base which would normally have no business but to vote the party that they've voted for their whole life.

Of course, it helps Labour in the marginals, but should UKIP actually come close to winning any seats, they'll surely beat Labour in battleground seats like Great Yarmouth and the Thanets. And both parties would be quite embarrassed to see UKIP running down their margins in their safe seats, but that means nothing on paper.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #207 on: July 07, 2014, 11:54:55 AM »

I'll accept the possibility of concern over Yarmouth, but South Thanet isn't exactly a natural first-rank marginal (everyone was shocked when Labour held it in 2005), and North Thanet is a safe Conservative seat.

The idea that people who toy with voting UKIP in Westminster elections come mostly from the supposed 'bases' of the two main parties is pretty dubious, but I'll leave that argument for another day...
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EPG
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« Reply #208 on: July 09, 2014, 12:33:04 PM »

But UKIP will rarely win (m)any seats. Thus its only importance is, which of the 2 big parties will see more potential votes wasted and to what extend!

The latest Polling Observatory average poll numbers are 35 (+6), 31 (-5), 15 (+12), 9 (-14). In summary, UKIP aren't just gaining from the Conservatives, and Lib Dems aren't just losing to Labour. Labour will lose votes to UKIP in some circumstances, though I think they will lose no seat to UKIP, and Lib Dems will stay at home or vote UKIP in surprising places.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #209 on: July 09, 2014, 02:07:37 PM »

It also needs to be remembered that not everyone who lives in a safe Labour seat votes Labour even most of the time...
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EPG
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« Reply #210 on: July 10, 2014, 01:00:51 PM »

I should have noted that the Polling Observatory average is very similar to the 2005 outcome - but with a 13% net migration from Lib Dem to the new anti-party, UKIP.
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doktorb
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« Reply #211 on: July 11, 2014, 11:53:59 AM »

As his seat of Redcar has been mentioned, it may be worth adding that its LibDem MP Ian Swales has announced he will not contest the next election
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #212 on: July 11, 2014, 02:18:50 PM »

As his seat of Redcar has been mentioned, it may be worth adding that its LibDem MP Ian Swales has announced he will not contest the next election

Saving himself the embarrassment.

10/57 LDs retiring (so far).
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EPG
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« Reply #213 on: July 11, 2014, 02:47:53 PM »

You'd have to say any Lib Dem retirements from now on won't give their successors enough time to campaign well. Less important for other parties.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #214 on: July 12, 2014, 02:54:00 PM »

LD will probably loose only 5-10 to CON and surely 14 to LAB: NorwichS, BradfordE, BrentC, Withington, Burnley, EastDunbartons, Yardley, EdinburghW, Redcar, Hornsey, CardiffC, Cambridge, Bermondsey, BristolW and perhaps LeedsNW. The seats in rural&remote Scotland&Wales are endangered more by SNP&PC.

There's only 2 seats with Labour in second where I'd say the Lib incumbent is 100% safe: Carmichael and Kennedy.

Their urban Scottish seats will swing to Labour and the SNP will do really well in the LD rural seats, I'd guess.

But we only have recent polling to go off, obviously. The LibDems were at about 10% in the EU election, until they actually started campaigning... The campaign itself could mean it becomes worse for the Libs than anyone really expects as of today.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #215 on: July 12, 2014, 04:38:25 PM »

Yes, the 2 mentioned Highlands&Islands-LDs should be safe. The other 2 (Caithness&Inverness) are in doubt - three ways?

I was talking about the whole of the UK, but up in Scotland I'd say the Libs were favoured in Caithness & Inverness, but not safe.

I'd say that Argyll & Bute will be race between the SNP and Labour. The SNP should gain Gordon and they have a chance in Fife NE.
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afleitch
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« Reply #216 on: July 12, 2014, 04:45:50 PM »


Their urban Scottish seats will swing to Labour and the SNP will do really well in the LD rural seats, I'd guess.


Which seats might those be Wink
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bore
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« Reply #217 on: July 12, 2014, 05:14:48 PM »


Their urban Scottish seats will swing to Labour and the SNP will do really well in the LD rural seats, I'd guess.


Which seats might those be Wink

Edinburgh West

East Dunbartonshire

Er....

That's it.

Though it depends how you define urban as to whether they even count, because they're probably more suburban (cue inevitable post by Al saying suburban is urban)
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EPG
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« Reply #218 on: July 13, 2014, 06:38:48 AM »

LD will probably loose only 5-10 to CON and surely 14 to LAB: NorwichS, BradfordE, BrentC, Withington, Burnley, EastDunbartons, Yardley, EdinburghW, Redcar, Hornsey, CardiffC, Cambridge, Bermondsey, BristolW and perhaps LeedsNW. The seats in rural&remote Scotland&Wales are endangered more by SNP&PC.

This means Lib Dems would win about 35 seats, which seems high to me if you think current polling numbers of about 9% will continue or fall. Over a dozen "LD > Con" marginal constituencies have less than 10% majorities, after decades of tactical voting that brought Labour down to as little as 4%. Labour people seem to really hate the Lib Dems this time, so they might vote their true preference, ultimately in favour of the Tories. So I think 10 losses in that category is understated. 35 seats is probably the sweet spot for Labour that maximises their net gain versus Conservatives (in Lib Dem constituencies). The Lib Dems and, by extension, Labour will probably do worse than that.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #219 on: July 14, 2014, 12:45:24 PM »

And both coalition-parties will surely do clearly better than in the polls now

I wouldn't bet on it.
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EPG
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« Reply #220 on: July 14, 2014, 01:22:11 PM »

The Conservatives are now polling about 30-34%. They got 37% (GB) in May 2010. There is not much more lost ground for them to regain. As for the Lib Dems, they will do much worse on seats than they would under any PR system.
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YL
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« Reply #221 on: July 14, 2014, 03:27:14 PM »

LD will probably loose only 5-10 to CON and surely 14 to LAB: NorwichS, BradfordE, BrentC, Withington, Burnley, EastDunbartons, Yardley, EdinburghW, Redcar, Hornsey, CardiffC, Cambridge, Bermondsey, BristolW and perhaps LeedsNW. The seats in rural&remote Scotland&Wales are endangered more by SNP&PC.

I basically agree on the LD/Lab battle, but I think the Lib Dems will hold the odd one or two of those seats.  Bermondsey and Yardley, given obvious personal votes, are candidates IMO.  (Can someone explain how the Lib Dems got so strong in Yardley in the first place?  It doesn't have much in common with the Lib Dem strongholds in other major cities.)  I don't know about Leeds NW: the swing needed is very large, and I think Mulholland is reasonably popular, but it's a university seat.

The LD/Con battle is unpredictable; I wouldn't be surprised by the sort of losses you're talking about (and possibly even the odd gain) but nor would I be surprised by much more serious losses as the tactical votes evaporate, as EPG suggests.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #222 on: July 14, 2014, 04:23:29 PM »

LD will probably loose only 5-10 to CON and surely 14 to LAB: NorwichS, BradfordE, BrentC, Withington, Burnley, EastDunbartons, Yardley, EdinburghW, Redcar, Hornsey, CardiffC, Cambridge, Bermondsey, BristolW and perhaps LeedsNW. The seats in rural&remote Scotland&Wales are endangered more by SNP&PC.

I basically agree on the LD/Lab battle, but I think the Lib Dems will hold the odd one or two of those seats.  Bermondsey and Yardley, given obvious personal votes, are candidates IMO.  (Can someone explain how the Lib Dems got so strong in Yardley in the first place?  It doesn't have much in common with the Lib Dem strongholds in other major cities.)  I don't know about Leeds NW: the swing needed is very large, and I think Mulholland is reasonably popular, but it's a university seat.

The LD/Con battle is unpredictable; I wouldn't be surprised by the sort of losses you're talking about (and possibly even the odd gain) but nor would I be surprised by much more serious losses as the tactical votes evaporate, as EPG suggests.

I think Yardley is leaning pretty drastically towards Labour at present. The Liberals did decently in the locals in its wards, but the Yardley often votes more Liberals locally than as an MP. Plus Hemming is a bit of a nutcase and his personal life has come under question. He doesn't have that same long-term charm that Simon Hughes can use in Bermondsy.

Liberal losses in LD/Con marginals may be mitigated by Conservative to UKIP swing. Whatever happens, this election will be probably the most useless ever for the swingometer of old.
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EPG
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« Reply #223 on: July 14, 2014, 04:25:49 PM »

(Can someone explain how the Lib Dems got so strong in Yardley in the first place?  It doesn't have much in common with the Lib Dem strongholds in other major cities.)

I do not know am going to guess: 1. because John Hemming chose to be a councillor there, and 2. because it is White British enough to not be a Labour stronghold in Birmingham terms. Ergo Lib Dem MP after fifteen years of trying.

They seemed to do OK in Birmingham, Yardley in the local elections earlier this year, well enough to retain a strong second and challenge Labour in 201?.

The LD/Con battle is unpredictable

Smiley Yes.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #224 on: July 14, 2014, 06:51:18 PM »

Even more than most places Birmingham 'does different' in local elections and has done since the 1960s. This isn't just with regards to the LibDems; the Tories are much stronger in the south of the city in at local level than in General Elections, for instance. This isn't going to change any time soon.

As to the specific issue of Yardley's bizarre electoral history, well, facing extinction in their inner city wards in the early 1980s, the Birmingham Liberals decided to slowly transfer their populist anti-city council shtick to the area which was marginal between the two main parties but not showered with attention. A new ward map was presumably a major factor. All of this involved actual councillors and longterm candidates in some cases.* Cutting a long story short, it worked. In terms of local politics it has been an absolute and adamantine stronghold since the early 1990s. It started to flow over into Westminster elections in 1992, but what was done locally has never been fully replicated, even if the seat is Hemming's for now. It is not impossible that he could lose his seat as his party leads in the area by thousands on the same day.

*The apparently eternal Paul Tilsley has been a councillor in suburban Sheldon since the late 80s, but had previously held a seat in Aston from 1968 until the mid 80s.
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