UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[You kip if you want to...]

As his seat of Redcar has been mentioned, it may be worth adding that its LibDem MP Ian Swales has announced he will not contest the next election

Saving himself the embarrassment.

10/57 LDs retiring (so far).

Wikipedia lists 9 LD-retirements. Who is the tenth?

Mike Hancock, a de facto retirement.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

As his seat of Redcar has been mentioned, it may be worth adding that its LibDem MP Ian Swales has announced he will not contest the next election

Saving himself the embarrassment.

10/57 LDs retiring (so far).

Wikipedia lists 9 LD-retirements. Who is the tenth?

Mike Hancock, a de facto retirement.

Has he officially been deselected yet?

Meanwhile, Danny Alexander has taken over the role of chief economic spokesman for the election from Vince Cable.

[You kip if you want to...]

As his seat of Redcar has been mentioned, it may be worth adding that its LibDem MP Ian Swales has announced he will not contest the next election

Saving himself the embarrassment.

10/57 LDs retiring (so far).

Wikipedia lists 9 LD-retirements. Who is the tenth?

Mike Hancock, a de facto retirement.

Has he officially been deselected yet?

Meanwhile, Danny Alexander has taken over the role of chief economic spokesman for the election from Vince Cable.

He's sitting as an Indie.

[Free Bird]

Overall Labour gains, but Cameron holds on.

[YL]

A team at the University of Southampton are running a forecast model.  Currently it's giving a point estimate of Lab 36.23, Con 35.52, LD 8.22 with error bars of a couple of points either side:
http://sotonpolitics.org/2014/07/17/the-polling-observatory-forecast-3-slow-decline-in-conservative-prospects-but-still-too-close-to-call/

Putting those numbers into Electoral Calculus gives Lab 315 seats, Con 297, LD 11.

There's also the model run by Stephen Fisher (University of Oxford) which is more Tory-friendly: he's currently saying Con 304 Lab 290 LD 29.  His error bars are much wider: http://electionsetc.com/2014/07/18/forecast-update-18-july-2014/

To be honest I'd be cautious about both of these given the unusual nature of this parliament, but there they are.

[Vosem]

Putting those numbers into Electoral Calculus gives Lab 315 seats, Con 297, LD 11.

Would Labour be able to cobble together a coalition with minor parties, or would this mean Britain goes back to the polls?

[Vega]

Putting those numbers into Electoral Calculus gives Lab 315 seats, Con 297, LD 11.

Would Labour be able to cobble together a coalition with minor parties, or would this mean Britain goes back to the polls?

I don't think the Lib Dems will do THAT poorly, but if that number is in the ball park, then I could see a super tiny Labour-Lib Dem coalition government.

[Vosem]

Putting those numbers into Electoral Calculus gives Lab 315 seats, Con 297, LD 11.

Would Labour be able to cobble together a coalition with minor parties, or would this mean Britain goes back to the polls?

I don't think the Lib Dems will do THAT poorly, but if that number is in the ball park, then I could see a super tiny Labour-Lib Dem coalition government.

326 seats is a one-seat majority, so the first member to resign or die will make it a minority government; and I don't think the Lib Dems will want another coalition after 2010-2015.

[MaxQue]

Putting those numbers into Electoral Calculus gives Lab 315 seats, Con 297, LD 11.

Would Labour be able to cobble together a coalition with minor parties, or would this mean Britain goes back to the polls?

I don't think the Lib Dems will do THAT poorly, but if that number is in the ball park, then I could see a super tiny Labour-Lib Dem coalition government.

326 seats is a one-seat majority, so the first member to resign or die will make it a minority government; and I don't think the Lib Dems will want another coalition after 2010-2015.

I suppose they could get supply from some small parties (anyways, you can always get the support of Northern Irish parties against a few goodies (especially SDLP considering it's Labour).

[You kip if you want to...]

Putting those numbers into Electoral Calculus gives Lab 315 seats, Con 297, LD 11.

Would Labour be able to cobble together a coalition with minor parties, or would this mean Britain goes back to the polls?

I don't think the Lib Dems will do THAT poorly, but if that number is in the ball park, then I could see a super tiny Labour-Lib Dem coalition government.

326 seats is a one-seat majority, so the first member to resign or die will make it a minority government; and I don't think the Lib Dems will want another coalition after 2010-2015.

I suppose they could get supply from some small parties (anyways, you can always get the support of Northern Irish parties against a few goodies (especially SDLP considering it's Labour).

If a coalition only got Labour-Lib to a tiny majority anyway, I think Labour would much prefer another election.

[Vega]

If a coalition only got Labour-Lib to a tiny majority anyway, I think Labour would much prefer another election.

Will they have the money to mount another election campaign within the same year, though?

[YL]

Making certain assumptions about the results in Norn Iron (five Sinn Féin MPs who don't vote at Westminster and three SDLP MPs and one Sylvia Hermon who will probably support Labour) Labour need 319 seats to control the Commons.  With 315 they could try to do confidence and supply deals with Plaid and the SNP and form a minority government.  It would be a surprise for it to last a full parliament, though.

I also don't expect the Lib Dems to go as low as 11 seats, but if they did I think it would be very hard to keep them in office.

[You kip if you want to...]

Making certain assumptions about the results in Norn Iron (five Sinn Féin MPs who don't vote at Westminster and three SDLP MPs and one Sylvia Hermon who will probably support Labour) Labour need 319 seats to control the Commons.  With 315 they could try to do confidence and supply deals with Plaid and the SNP and form a minority government.  It would be a surprise for it to last a full parliament, though.

I also don't expect the Lib Dems to go as low as 11 seats, but if they did I think it would be very hard to keep them in office.

Depending on the referendum and its aftermath, a deal with the Nats could be playing with fire. Who knows what they'll demand?

[afleitch]

Making certain assumptions about the results in Norn Iron (five Sinn Féin MPs who don't vote at Westminster and three SDLP MPs and one Sylvia Hermon who will probably support Labour) Labour need 319 seats to control the Commons.  With 315 they could try to do confidence and supply deals with Plaid and the SNP and form a minority government.  It would be a surprise for it to last a full parliament, though.

I also don't expect the Lib Dems to go as low as 11 seats, but if they did I think it would be very hard to keep them in office.

Depending on the referendum and its aftermath, a deal with the Nats could be playing with fire. Who knows what they'll demand?

If No wins, you do realise there will be a large camp of recent Yes voters of all stripes that will want their votes to go somewhere? Party loyalty has essentially disintigrated anyway. I wouldn't be suprised if the SNP soak that up somewhat.

[You kip if you want to...]

For anyone who's thinking Labour will lose (I'm not, but whatever), Andy Burnham is by far the most popular member of the Shadow Cabinet among the grassroots, looking forward to any hypothetical leadership election.

[You kip if you want to...]

Dan Byles standing down in North Warwickshire, the most marginal Tory seat in the country.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Is there any chance of Miliband stepping down before the election?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not unless he shoots a dog.

[You kip if you want to...]

All three leaders will be in place on Election Day.

Although, I wouldn't rule out another failed coup in the LibDems.

[ChrisDR68]

For anyone who's thinking Labour will lose (I'm not, but whatever), Andy Burnham is by far the most popular member of the Shadow Cabinet among the grassroots, looking forward to any hypothetical leadership election.

The worst I see Labour doing in 2015 is a hung parliament with the Tories a few seats short of the 326 seats they need for a majority. For them to get an overall majority they need to be 9% ahead of Labour which I can't see happening.

In that scenario do you see Red Ed standing down?

I see him still as the Labour leader in May 2020 unless something extraordinary happens (the most likely being intense pressure from within his party to resign).

[EPG]

If the Tories form another government and it looks like sticking around, they couldn't possibly give Miliband another five years.

[You kip if you want to...]

Yeah, it's number 10 or resign for Miliband.

[ChrisDR68]

Yeah, it's number 10 or resign for Miliband.

I can't see Andy Burnham winning a leadership contest in 2015 if there is one. He had very low support amongst his fellow MP's in 2010.

I think it will be one of three:

Yvette Cooper (who is hampered a bit by being married to the unpopular Ed Balls)
Chucka Umanna (who comes across as slightly too slick and sounding like a lawyer)
Rachel Reeves (who often gets very flustered in tv interviews if she doesn't like the question she's being asked. She also has a slightly commical accent (well it always makes me smile anyway lol))

So possibly either Labour's first female or mixed race leader.

All three would be pretty good I think.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yes, either those three or Tristram Hunt who is broadly media-pleasing, while being less glued to unpopular New Labour figures than Cooper or Umanna.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Backing from MPs for leadership candidates is rather fluid between leadership elections, to put it mildly (there is a marked tendency to coalesce around perceived favourites). In any case we shouldn't forget the PLP will matter less in the next leadership election than it ever has due to the new rules.