UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[joevsimp]

no, they did very well in the county council elections in 2013, but their group has imploded since then

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Boston did give the highest vote to UKIP (51%) in the country in the 2014 European elections ... for what it's worth.

In theory at least that's UKIP's most credible target in the country (and by some margin). Tories have to be careful with candidate selection.

In fairness UKIP themselves may have their own difficulties recruiting a (competent) candidate in 2015. The Wikipedia profile for the constituency paints a pretty sordid tale of intra-party bickering amongst local Kippers (as joevsimp just alluded to).

[You kip if you want to...]

Channel 4 saying Neil Hamilton wants to run.

Ahahahaha. Tory hold.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Channel 4 saying Neil Hamilton wants to run.

Ahahahaha. Tory hold.

OMG PLEASE YES

unfortunately Farage hates him, so will probably put the kibosh on anything fun

[You kip if you want to...]

In terms of all these "IF Boris was leader" polls, would similar hypotheticals on Blair/Brown from 2005-2007 be a good comparison for how inane they are once the alternative actually takes office?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polls like that are trash. You people all read too many newspaper columns.

[YL]

You'd think that if UKIP were looking for help to win Boston & Skegness, Simmonds' reason for quitting would be the sort of thing they would be looking for.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes I... cannot quite believe that he actually said that. This is not an affluent area by any means, even if it isn't culturally working class.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Polls like that are trash. You people all read too many newspaper columns.

That equally applies to posters here as it does to UKIP.

[You kip if you want to...]

The Foreign Office has lost Hague, Warsi and Simmonds within a month...

[Harry Hayfield]

The effect of "fracking" at the next election (for the attention of Mr. Teale)

[You kip if you want to...]

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Junk poll in Southampton Itchen, or is something odd going on locally?

I wonder how many seats the Lib Dems will beat UKIP in next year.

[You kip if you want to...]

Junk poll in Southampton Itchen, or is something odd going on locally?

Ashcroft suggests it's students being at home.

[YL]

Junk poll in Southampton Itchen, or is something odd going on locally?

Ashcroft suggests it's students being at home.

I thought his quip about Southampton academics being in Tuscany or Cuba was a very Tory thing to say...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Constituency polling is basically junk, so, you know. But Itchen is a potential worry for Labour given the tiny majority and the retirement of Denham who, don't forget, has been the Labour candidate there since 1983.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

The effect of "fracking" at the next election (for the attention of Mr. Teale)

I can't seriously believe that Bolton West will be a Tory gain due to the possibility of fracking.  Don't forget, this constituency has a coalmining history.  Walk around Westhoughton town centre and you will see a large number of memorials to the dead of the Pretoria Pit explosion of 1910, which killed more Westhoughtonians than the two world wars.  Within the boundaries of the Duchy of Smithills itself there are some scanty remains of a coalmine hidden on the broad top of Winter Hill.  We all know what's down there under the ground.  Fracking seems to me safer than sending people into the earth to get the coal out.

I'm also not convinced by arguments over fracking polluting the water supply.  In the North West we don't use groundwater, so far as I am aware, to any significant extent; there's quite enough rain to fill our reservoirs all year round.

What fracking does have the possibility to do is revitalise places like Westhoughton, which badly need something to give their economies a kickstart.

[joevsimp]

Constituency polling is basically junk, so, you know. But Itchen is a potential worry for Labour given the tiny majority and the retirement of Denham who, don't forget, has been the Labour candidate there since 1983.

20% lib dem vote though will probably tank labour's way, plus ukip increasing theirs. its seats like that that make Ed Milliband think he can just wait for the tories to lose the election rather than going out and trying to win it

[YL]

Another forecasting site, possibly trying to be more of a British 538 than the others: http://electionforecast.co.uk/

Their headline forecast appears to be Lab 307, Con 286, LD 25, SNP 8, Plaid 3, Green 1.

They also have a map giving individual seat predictions, based on a model using "raw polling data" (I think this means Ashcroft constituency polls and YouGov crossbreaks as well as headline figures, so I doubt Al will think much of it) rather than simply UNS.  This shows the Lib Dems pretty much being wiped out in their defences against Labour, up to and including Leeds NW, and not doing that well against the Tories either.  I was a bit surprised to see Argyll & Bute blue, but there are four possible winners there and it could be won on a very low vote share.

[joevsimp]

Another forecasting site, possibly trying to be more of a British 538 than the others: http://electionforecast.co.uk/

Their headline forecast appears to be Lab 307, Con 286, LD 25, SNP 8, Plaid 3, Green 1.

They also have a map giving individual seat predictions, based on a model using "raw polling data" (I think this means Ashcroft constituency polls and YouGov crossbreaks as well as headline figures, so I doubt Al will think much of it) rather than simply UNS.  This shows the Lib Dems pretty much being wiped out in their defences against Labour, up to and including Leeds NW, and not doing that well against the Tories either.  I was a bit surprised to see Argyll & Bute blue, but there are four possible winners there and it could be won on a very low vote share.

argyll seems to have changes to SNP since you posted that

not sure how convinced I am by tha site, I know Plaid aren't doing too well, but surely they'll nab Ceredigion off of the lib dems?

[YL]

Another forecasting site, possibly trying to be more of a British 538 than the others: http://electionforecast.co.uk/

Their headline forecast appears to be Lab 307, Con 286, LD 25, SNP 8, Plaid 3, Green 1.

They also have a map giving individual seat predictions, based on a model using "raw polling data" (I think this means Ashcroft constituency polls and YouGov crossbreaks as well as headline figures, so I doubt Al will think much of it) rather than simply UNS.  This shows the Lib Dems pretty much being wiped out in their defences against Labour, up to and including Leeds NW, and not doing that well against the Tories either.  I was a bit surprised to see Argyll & Bute blue, but there are four possible winners there and it could be won on a very low vote share.

argyll seems to have changes to SNP since you posted that

Yes, and Leeds NW and Cambridge (but not Bristol W) have gone back to the Lib Dems.

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That needs a big swing; it wouldn't surprise me that much if it happened but a model like this is only going to predict it if it is predicting a near total Lib Dem wipeout.

Anyway, it's going to be hard to emulate 538 in the UK.  Nate Silver's methodology is dependent on state polls; constituency polls in the UK are fairly rare, only done by a handful of pollsters (any model depending on them is going to be very dependent on Ashcroft at the moment), and don't have a particularly good reputation.  (I think Al exaggerates, but certainly there is a history of some bad ones.  I assume the basic problem is that it's relatively easy to get a dodgy sample.)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Does the election forecast's website map have a higher resolution? I want to see their projection in London.

[afleitch]

A few thoughts on Scotland.

If 2015 was a business as usual election (no referendum campaign) I'd expect every Lib Dem loss to be to the SNP with the exception of East Dunbartonshire with no Labour losses except possibly, Stirling due to the sitting MP stepping down. That's what forecasts will be showing.

However given the referendum if it's a Yes vote then Scottish seats might not even be competitive. If it's a No vote, then it should not be assumed that the rump forty-something percent who voted no will move back to their respective parties particularly as 'what now?' will be an election issue in Scotland. The SNP could potentially do rather well.

[joevsimp]

Does the election forecast's website map have a higher resolution? I want to see their projection in London.

its in svg format so you should be able to copy the file location and open it in an image editor that can handle it

can't seem to zoom it enough in the browser for some reason

[joevsimp]

Another forecasting site, possibly trying to be more of a British 538 than the others: http://electionforecast.co.uk/

Their headline forecast appears to be Lab 307, Con 286, LD 25, SNP 8, Plaid 3, Green 1.

They also have a map giving individual seat predictions, based on a model using "raw polling data" (I think this means Ashcroft constituency polls and YouGov crossbreaks as well as headline figures, so I doubt Al will think much of it) rather than simply UNS.  This shows the Lib Dems pretty much being wiped out in their defences against Labour, up to and including Leeds NW, and not doing that well against the Tories either.  I was a bit surprised to see Argyll & Bute blue, but there are four possible winners there and it could be won on a very low vote share.

argyll seems to have changes to SNP since you posted that

Yes, and Leeds NW and Cambridge (but not Bristol W) have gone back to the Lib Dems.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That needs a big swing; it wouldn't surprise me that much if it happened but a model like this is only going to predict it if it is predicting a near total Lib Dem wipeout.

hmm, Lib dems only had a 200 vote majority in 2005 but got a 10% swing in 2010, bizarre, didn't realise that it was so high, not sure plaid can quite manage that now on their current form, plus they'll be after Ynys Mon as well and trying to avoid losing Arfon