UK General Election - May 7th 2015
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #400 on: August 25, 2014, 10:51:02 AM »

Trying to 'project' seat results from poll internals (!!!!) is only marginally less stupid than trying to project from local election results.

Of course the latter is very common and has been for decades because most people who follow British elections obsessively are basically halfwits with calculators.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #401 on: August 25, 2014, 10:53:07 AM »

Regarding Ceredigion, forget that it contains two universities and remember instead that it is an agricultural constituency in Mid Wales...
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YL
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« Reply #402 on: August 25, 2014, 11:29:15 AM »
« Edited: August 25, 2014, 11:59:13 AM by YL »

Trying to 'project' seat results from poll internals (!!!!) is only marginally less stupid than trying to project from local election results.

I may have maligned them there, as they don't fully describe their data and what they're doing with it.  Reading it again, I think they've got some sort of constituency breakdown of lots of YouGov polls and have then fed that into a 538-style statistical model, which would be problematic for the same reason.  But I may have misunderstood.

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You mean the "UKIP are going to win Rotherham" sort of analysis?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #403 on: August 25, 2014, 11:48:35 AM »

Rhondda in 2001 remains the funniest instance to date, I think.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #404 on: August 26, 2014, 04:06:03 AM »

Rhondda in 2001 remains the funniest instance to date, I think.

Labour 23,230 votes (68% -7% on 1997)
Plaid Cymru 7,183 votes (21% +8% on 1997)
Conservatives 1,557 votes (5% +1% on 1997)
Liberal Democrats 1,525 votes (4% -2% on 1997)
Independent 507 votes (1%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 16,047 votes (47%) on a swing of 7% from Lab to Plaid

Am I missing something here, because that doesn't sound funny at all?
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #405 on: August 26, 2014, 06:08:01 AM »

Rhondda in 2001 remains the funniest instance to date, I think.

Labour 23,230 votes (68% -7% on 1997)
Plaid Cymru 7,183 votes (21% +8% on 1997)
Conservatives 1,557 votes (5% +1% on 1997)
Liberal Democrats 1,525 votes (4% -2% on 1997)
Independent 507 votes (1%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 16,047 votes (47%) on a swing of 7% from Lab to Plaid

Am I missing something here, because that doesn't sound funny at all?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhondda_%28Assembly_constituency%29#Elections_in_the_1990s

Also, why did Plaid win Rhondda anyway?
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YL
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« Reply #406 on: August 26, 2014, 08:05:05 AM »

In stunningly surprising and earth-shattering news, a certain blond Old Etonian is applying for the Tory nomination for Uxbridge & South Ruislip.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #407 on: August 26, 2014, 11:19:56 AM »


Two reasons. The main one was that the local (Labour) council had a poor reputation and was embroiled in various scandals (including a really bad one over a waste tip). There were local elections on the same day and said administration was heavily defeated.* The second was that a lot of Labour supporters in South Wales were unhappy at Rhodri Morgan being blocked as Welsh leader in favour of Alun Michael and decided to cast protest votes.

*The new Plaid administration turned out to be just about the worst sort of officer-led council possible and was in turn ousted in a massive landslide in 2003.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #408 on: August 26, 2014, 11:33:48 AM »

Rhondda in 2001 remains the funniest instance to date, I think.

Labour 23,230 votes (68% -7% on 1997)
Plaid Cymru 7,183 votes (21% +8% on 1997)
Conservatives 1,557 votes (5% +1% on 1997)
Liberal Democrats 1,525 votes (4% -2% on 1997)
Independent 507 votes (1%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 16,047 votes (47%) on a swing of 7% from Lab to Plaid

Am I missing something here, because that doesn't sound funny at all?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhondda_%28Assembly_constituency%29#Elections_in_the_1990s

Also, why did Plaid win Rhondda anyway?

Oh, you mean Rhondda 1999 not Rhondda 2001.
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YL
YorkshireLiberal
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« Reply #409 on: August 26, 2014, 11:47:23 AM »

Sky News are reporting that they have seen an internal UKIP target list of 12 seats:

South Thanet
North Thanet
Sittingbourne & Sheppey
Worthing East & Shoreham

Eastleigh
Portsmouth South

Aylesbury
Forest of Dean
Thurrock
Great Yarmouth
Boston & Skegness

Great Grimsby
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YL
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« Reply #410 on: August 26, 2014, 11:51:01 AM »

Rhondda in 2001 remains the funniest instance to date, I think.

Labour 23,230 votes (68% -7% on 1997)
Plaid Cymru 7,183 votes (21% +8% on 1997)
Conservatives 1,557 votes (5% +1% on 1997)
Liberal Democrats 1,525 votes (4% -2% on 1997)
Independent 507 votes (1%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 16,047 votes (47%) on a swing of 7% from Lab to Plaid

Am I missing something here, because that doesn't sound funny at all?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhondda_%28Assembly_constituency%29#Elections_in_the_1990s

Also, why did Plaid win Rhondda anyway?

Oh, you mean Rhondda 1999 not Rhondda 2001.

No, he means that people were predicting that Plaid would win Rhondda in 2001 because of the 1999 results and were hilariously inaccurate.  Possibly these people were the same ones who were predicting that Charles Kennedy would lose his seat at that election because of some poll internals which suggested the Lib Dems were doing badly in Scotland.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #411 on: August 26, 2014, 03:11:28 PM »

Sky News are reporting that they have seen an internal UKIP target list of 12 seats:

South Thanet now with added Nigel Farage for UKIP)
North Thanet
Sittingbourne & Sheppey
Worthing East & Shoreham

Eastleigh
Portsmouth South

Aylesbury
Forest of Dean
Thurrock
Great Yarmouth
Boston & Skegness

Great Grimsby

For which I get paid the grand sum of 66p via Paddy Power!
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YL
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« Reply #412 on: September 02, 2014, 01:41:04 PM »

Does the election forecast's website map have a higher resolution? I want to see their projection in London.

They now have tables of projected vote shares and winning probabilities according to their model for every constituency.

http://electionforecast.co.uk/tables/predicted_vote_by_seat.html
http://electionforecast.co.uk/tables/predicted_probability_by_seat.html

Somewhat surprisingly, the seat they give the second highest probability of a UKIP gain for (after Clacton, where they're using the Ashcroft by-election poll's general election question in their model) is Oldham East & Saddleworth.

In a way I'm quite pleased someone is trying something like this, but I'm not very convinced yet.  We'll see how it develops.
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Zanas
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« Reply #413 on: September 03, 2014, 09:27:18 AM »

These figures show only two seats where LibDem have a higher than 10 pt lead : Orkney and Shetland, of course, and Sheffield Hallam. I would be worried if I were Clegg.

Also, the figures for Buckingham are hilarious, and I didn't know why. I went and learned that the Speaker is uncontested in general elections, which is yet another moronic aspect of tradition in British politics. The thing where an MP is unable to resign and has to be appointed to one of two obscure fake offices of Stewards is another one that I just recently learned about for Clacton. Seriously, why can't the British just implement a real constitution and stop this bullsh**t ? Nobody takes them seriously...

Still, I don't think Plaid Cymru or the SNP will run in Buckingham, so these figures look bizarre.
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Cassius
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« Reply #414 on: September 03, 2014, 09:48:03 AM »

These figures show only two seats where LibDem have a higher than 10 pt lead : Orkney and Shetland, of course, and Sheffield Hallam. I would be worried if I were Clegg.

Also, the figures for Buckingham are hilarious, and I didn't know why. I went and learned that the Speaker is uncontested in general elections, which is yet another moronic aspect of tradition in British politics. The thing where an MP is unable to resign and has to be appointed to one of two obscure fake offices of Stewards is another one that I just recently learned about for Clacton. Seriously, why can't the British just implement a real constitution and stop this bullsh**t ? Nobody takes them seriously...

Still, I don't think Plaid Cymru or the SNP will run in Buckingham, so these figures look bizarre.

Implementing a 'real constitution' would make things even more dull than they already are...
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« Reply #415 on: September 03, 2014, 10:12:02 AM »

Last time Farage himself took a brave stand against tradition be standing against Bercow. He was beaten by a man dressed as a dolphin, but still.

That said, I do like the idea of a non-partisan Speaker, but I do feel a bit bad for people living in Buckingham, who have even less influence with their vote than the rest of us plebs.
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joevsimp
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« Reply #416 on: September 03, 2014, 12:19:55 PM »

Last time Farage himself took a brave stand against tradition be standing against Bercow. He was beaten by a man dressed as a dolphin, but still.

That said, I do like the idea of a non-partisan Speaker, but I do feel a bit bad for people living in Buckingham, who have even less influence with their vote than the rest of us plebs.

it works better in Ireland, because they have 3-5 seats per constituency and the speaker (Ceann Comharlie if I've spelled that right is automatically returned on the first count
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YL
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« Reply #417 on: September 03, 2014, 03:22:06 PM »

Still, I don't think Plaid Cymru or the SNP will run in Buckingham, so these figures look bizarre.

Re Plaid, note also Devizes and Sheffield Hallam.  Something needs tweaking in their model I think...
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #418 on: September 03, 2014, 04:33:37 PM »

These figures show only two seats where LibDem have a higher than 10 pt lead : Orkney and Shetland, of course, and Sheffield Hallam. I would be worried if I were Clegg.

Also, the figures for Buckingham are hilarious, and I didn't know why. I went and learned that the Speaker is uncontested in general elections, which is yet another moronic aspect of tradition in British politics. The thing where an MP is unable to resign and has to be appointed to one of two obscure fake offices of Stewards is another one that I just recently learned about for Clacton. Seriously, why can't the British just implement a real constitution and stop this bullsh**t ? Nobody takes them seriously...

Still, I don't think Plaid Cymru or the SNP will run in Buckingham, so these figures look bizarre.

Implementing a 'real constitution' would make things even more dull than they already are...

Why mess with success? There's no need to muddle through 5 Republics to get it right.
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politicus
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« Reply #419 on: September 03, 2014, 04:41:41 PM »

These figures show only two seats where LibDem have a higher than 10 pt lead : Orkney and Shetland, of course, and Sheffield Hallam. I would be worried if I were Clegg.

Also, the figures for Buckingham are hilarious, and I didn't know why. I went and learned that the Speaker is uncontested in general elections, which is yet another moronic aspect of tradition in British politics. The thing where an MP is unable to resign and has to be appointed to one of two obscure fake offices of Stewards is another one that I just recently learned about for Clacton. Seriously, why can't the British just implement a real constitution and stop this bullsh**t ? Nobody takes them seriously...

Still, I don't think Plaid Cymru or the SNP will run in Buckingham, so these figures look bizarre.

Implementing a 'real constitution' would make things even more dull than they already are...

Why mess with success? There's no need to muddle through 5 Republics to get it right.

Regarding civil liberties the current situation in the UK is hardly a success. A written constitution sets clearer boundaries on what  the authorities can and cant do.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #420 on: September 04, 2014, 08:17:34 AM »

Chris Kelly (Conservative, Dudley South) is standing down. He also wishes Carswell "all the best" in his election. Further awkwardness for Cameron.

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #421 on: September 04, 2014, 08:23:23 AM »

But not really as no one had ever heard of that guy.
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bore
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« Reply #422 on: September 04, 2014, 08:54:04 AM »

If anything, it's terrible news instead for Ed Milliband.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #423 on: September 08, 2014, 11:14:23 AM »

Liberal Democrats release pre-manifesto. It includes:

* four weeks of paternity leave
* the mansion tax on houses over £2,000,000
* An aim to balance budget by 2017/18.
* higher Capital Gains taxes
* no subsidised TV license or fuel allowances for better-off elderly
* cheaper bus travel for young people
* decriminalisation of drugs, Portugal style and possibly an endorsement of cannabis legalisation
* rule out all airport/runway expansions or openings in London
* phasing out coal power by 2050
* abolishing PCC's
* STV for local elections
* Voting age at 16

Who knows how much will get through in the event of a coalition? (my wager is that the drugs and the airport policies would be hardest to implement; as well as the various tax rises if it's another blue-yellow coalition).
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YL
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« Reply #424 on: September 08, 2014, 01:38:35 PM »

The Lib Dems have selected David Rendel, MP for Newbury from 1993 (when he won the seat from the Tories with a massive majority in a by-election) to 2005, and a contender for the party leadership in 1999, to defend their narrow majority in Somerton & Frome.
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