UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[You kip if you want to...]

Yeah, I mean, if you invite the Greens but not the other parties who have at least 1 MP in the commons, it's going to get sticky.

As would inviting Clegg, but not Farage.

Personally, I'd just like an Ed-Dave debate. They're the only real contenders to be PM.

[DC Al Fine]

Can't wait for the TV debates. Will the Greens be invited I wonder? 

Cameron's trying to dodge them, apparently. But the Tories are apparently pumping for an Ed-Dave debate, then a Lab-Con-Lib-UKIP-Green debate.

I don't see the point in inviting the Greens personally (although, it'd do the Tories well if they were). Where's the line? They gonna invite George Galloway for Respect as well?

They do that in Canada and it doesn't create good debates. Lots of leaders squabbling and the public is forced to watch small leaders blather on about things they don't care about  (e.g. The Bloc Quebecois always got invited to the English debates).

I think Ed-David or Ed-David-Nigel-Nick are the only reasonable ways to go.

[You kip if you want to...]

Can't wait for the TV debates. Will the Greens be invited I wonder? 

Cameron's trying to dodge them, apparently. But the Tories are apparently pumping for an Ed-Dave debate, then a Lab-Con-Lib-UKIP-Green debate.

I don't see the point in inviting the Greens personally (although, it'd do the Tories well if they were). Where's the line? They gonna invite George Galloway for Respect as well?

They do that in Canada and it doesn't create good debates. Lots of leaders squabbling and the public is forced to watch small leaders blather on about things they don't care about  (e.g. The Bloc Quebecois always got invited to the English debates).

I think Ed-David or Ed-David-Nigel-Nick are the only reasonable ways to go.

They do the two main PM candidates in Australia and NZ right?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Can't wait for the TV debates. Will the Greens be invited I wonder? 

Cameron's trying to dodge them, apparently. But the Tories are apparently pumping for an Ed-Dave debate, then a Lab-Con-Lib-UKIP-Green debate.

I don't see the point in inviting the Greens personally (although, it'd do the Tories well if they were). Where's the line? They gonna invite George Galloway for Respect as well?

They do that in Canada and it doesn't create good debates. Lots of leaders squabbling and the public is forced to watch small leaders blather on about things they don't care about  (e.g. The Bloc Quebecois always got invited to the English debates).

I think Ed-David or Ed-David-Nigel-Nick are the only reasonable ways to go.

They do the two main PM candidates in Australia and NZ right?

Germany as well. The SPD and the CDU leaders first have a debate, followed by a minor party debate.

I'e always thought you should be invited to at least the minor party debate if you're running candidates in the vast majority of constituencies.

[Thomas D]

So how do we know UKIP won't be like Perot in 1992?  He got 19% of the vote but didn't actually win anywhere.

[EPG]

The by-election results, local elections, and some constituency opinion polls suggest that UKIP can win pluralities in a very small number of places.

[DC Al Fine]

I see it being like a reverse Canada, with the upstart populists being spread too thin and winning few seats and the establishment conservatives having the favourable geography.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't normally hold with obsessing with polls this far out from an election*, but a YouGov done at the same time as the Survation poll shows Labour 34, Con 32, UKIP 16, LDem 9. For what that's worth.

_{*You'd never think it from the way the media covers politics, but the British electorate typically only emerges from its perfectly rational boredom with the political process once the Great Electoral Carnival gets rolling.}

[ChrisDR68]

I don't normally hold with obsessing with polls this far out from an election*, but a YouGov done at the same time as the Survation poll shows Labour 34, Con 32, UKIP 16, LDem 9. For what that's worth.

_{*You'd never think it from the way the media covers politics, but the British electorate typically only emerges from its perfectly rational boredom with the political process once the Great Electoral Carnival gets rolling.}

Perfectly rational boredom... that made me laugh!

Given that even experienced political commentators such as Peter Kellner and Andrew Rawnsley have both stated recently in the newspapers they write for that they have no idea what the result of the GE will be the campaign itself could actually be very interesting indeed...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though never forget that every other election is proclaimed to be the least predictable in recent memory.

[EPG]

Well, 2010 genuinely was both close and volatile. 2005 and 2001... not. 1997 more notable for rare surprises than the landslide result as a whole. I don't think those Blair elections were considered very unpredictable.

I see it being like a reverse Canada, with the upstart populists being spread too thin and winning few seats and the establishment conservatives having the favourable geography.

Also, Ukip are about half as popular as the Conservatives in most polls. That doesn't help.

[You kip if you want to...]

Though never forget that every other election is proclaimed to be the least predictable in recent memory.

Not many things since election 2010 have been 'normal' though. The Lib collapse, Coalition, referendum, UKIP, Ed Miliband being the Miliband who became leader, all three leaders being about as popular as ebola. The only weird political manoeuvrings 2005-2010 really had was a constant Labour leadership crisis.

[EPG]

Cameron's net approval ratings are near-zero, though you would be forgiven for thinking otherwise given all that's happened. The other two leaders... plumbing the depths.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I was just being playful...

[Vega]

Not many things since election 2010 have been 'normal' though. The Lib collapse, Coalition, referendum, UKIP, Ed Miliband being the Miliband who became leader, all three leaders being about as popular as ebola. The only weird political manoeuvrings 2005-2010 really had was a constant Labour leadership crisis.

Yeah, it's definitely been a weird 4 years.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Most parliamentary terms are full of weirdness. The whole Cash for Peerages nonsense, anyone?

[Vega]

Most parliamentary terms are full of weirdness. The whole Cash for Peerages nonsense, anyone?

Yes, but it seems like in the past 4 or 5 years we've seen a total change in the way British politics operate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A claim that has been made periodically since... what... the 1960s?

[Vega]

A claim that has been made periodically since... what... the 1960s?

True, it is a subjective term. Though I feel it specifically applies to the past 4 years.

[Vosem]

A claim that has been made periodically since... what... the 1960s?

To be fair, the way British politics operates has completely changed since the 1960s.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To be fair, the way British politics operates has completely changed since the 1960s.

I don't know about completely. One thing that is very similar is the insistence that this particular moment that we're living in now is the most unpredictable time in politics that anyone can remember (etc). Most of what has changed, of course, has changed pretty gradually.

[YL]

The various broadcasters who would be involved have come up with some proposals for TV debates.  The suggestion is three debates, one Cameron/Miliband, one Cameron/Miliband/Clegg and one Cameron/Miliband/Clegg/Farage.

The Lib Dems aren't happy with being left out of one of the three, and Cameron appears sceptical, so whether any debates will happen and who'll be involved in them is still up in the air.  Of course the Greens, Plaid and the SNP are not impressed either.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Greens have gone so far as to threaten legal action. Hilarious.

[You kip if you want to...]

I don't see why Plaid and the SNP should be involved. Scotland and Wales had separate debates last time which makes a lot more sense.

Also, I seem to remember Sky genuinely promising to empty chair Gordon Brown last time when he was dragging his feet. Don't see them doing that to Cameron now he seems to have cold feet.

A Cam-Ed-Clegg debate following a Cam-Ed debate would be hilarious though because it'd just become 'rip Nick Clegg to pieces for 2 hours'.

[ChrisDR68]

If each debate is 2 hours that's too long.

They should be an hour each and I wouldn't mind the more relaxed Question Time format with them all sitting behind an arched table with the host sitting in the middle inviting the audience to ask questions of the party leaders.