UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[ChrisDR68]

The two main parties got 87% of the seats in the 2010 general election (565 out of 650 seats) on 65% of their combined popular vote.

The smaller parties totalled 85 seats (13% of the total) on 35% of the popular vote.

Taking account of your three scenarios in 2015 I've given the Lib Dems 28 seats (-29), the SNP 25 seats (+19) and UKIP 10 seats (+10). Add the 18 MP's from Northern Ireland, 3 Plain Cymru and 1 Green and you again get 85 seats for the smaller parties.

In other words the SNP and UKIP doing well is cancelled out by the Lib Dems doing badly leaving the two main parties unscathed.

To really hurt the two party system the Lib Dems would probably need to hold around 40 of their seats, the SNP to win 30 and UKIP 20 seats. That would give the smaller parties 112 MP's (27 more than in 2010).

 

[afleitch]

One of the great difficulties is predicting what seats might swing towards UKIP and at what point UKIP might ‘take off;’ in terms of seats. What I have decided to do is look at the 2014 European Election results and ‘swing’ them back towards what the current polls suggest nationally. Adjustments are made for regional party strengths based on the 2010 results. While this gives an idea of results by council, it’s easy to use these to look at what would happen in the constituencies. It also gives an idea of where the Lib Dem vote is going and what effect UKIP are having on Labour/Tory vote shares

The ‘estimates’ are based on the current UKPR average of 32-34-8-16. I’ve picked two promising regions; Easter and East Midlands. I’ll try and work out a crude model later.

Eastern

It’s easier here to identify what areas aren’t Conservative. The Liberal Democrats do not win a single council, nor seat on these calculations. The Tories come top in North Norfolk and Colchester. That would be 2 seat gains. As for Labour areas, they win Cambridge from the Lib Dems, Harlow, Ipswich, Luton, Norwich (perhaps enough to win both seats there), Stevenage, Thurrock and Watford. That would be five or six gains from the Conservatives and two gains from the Liberal Democrats. So Labour would be up 7 or 8 seats and the Conservatives down 3 or 4 seats. UKIP don’t win anywhere, however there are areas of strong UKIP support that remain linked to a 16% national vote share. They sit second in Basildon, ahead of Labour and are about 7% behind the Tories in Castle Point. Great Yarmouth is a three way tussle and UKIP are 2nd in Thurrock, just 4% behind Labour.

What would happen in Eastern on the basis of the 30-30-9-19 poll? Well here UKIP would leapfrog Labour into second place on vote share. It would nudge them into first place in Basildon, making a gain there possible. They would also lead in Castle Point and in Thurrock, knocking the Conservatives into third. They would also win Great Yarmouth. UKIP would bite into Labour’s 1997 high watermark coastal seats. Labour’s ‘gains’ would remain as they were (except perhaps Norwich North) UKIP’s vote would have to break into the low to mid 20’s to start picking up other seats.

East Midlands

Labour top in Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Bolsover, Broxtowe (the seat of which would be a Labour gain), Chesterfield, Corby (Labour would gain the seat) Derby City, Gedling, High Peak (a Labour gain), Leicester City, Lincoln City (by enough to gain them the seat of Lincoln), Mansfield, North East Derbyshire, and Nottingham City. Erewash is evens between Labour and the Tories (which seat wise would translate into a Tory hold) That would translate into 4 modest seat gains by Labour from Conservative. The Lib Dems top nowhere (and hold no seats at present anywhere)

UKIP also do not factor. This is worth a look. They are a few % points behind the Tories in Boston but outside of that council area (the Boston and Skegness seat is larger) they are further behind in other parts of Lincolnshire. So while it is definitely a target seat, there’s not much to suggest they will challenge elsewhere.

[Harry Hayfield]

Thank you for using the term "take off" as it has reminded me of these charts displayed during both the 1974 general elections which showed the % share needed for a Liberal "take off" and an SNP "take off" which sadly I cannot find online to post. Has anyone done a chart showing what it would take for UKIP to "take off"?

[YL]

East Midlands

Labour top in Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Bolsover, Broxtowe (the seat of which would be a Labour gain), Chesterfield, Corby (Labour would gain the seat) Derby City, Gedling, High Peak (a Labour gain), Leicester City, Lincoln City (by enough to gain them the seat of Lincoln), Mansfield, North East Derbyshire, and Nottingham City. Erewash is evens between Labour and the Tories (which seat wise would translate into a Tory hold) That would translate into 4 modest seat gains by Labour from Conservative. The Lib Dems top nowhere (and hold no seats at present anywhere)

UKIP also do not factor. This is worth a look. They are a few % points behind the Tories in Boston but outside of that council area (the Boston and Skegness seat is larger) they are further behind in other parts of Lincolnshire. So while it is definitely a target seat, there’s not much to suggest they will challenge elsewhere.

IIRC Erewash the district is less Labour than the constituency, and the same is true of Amber Valley, so that could well be two more Labour gains, and I don't think there's any way you can get a good handle on Sherwood constituency from district figures.

UKIP got over 50% in Boston in the Euros (and close to that in South Holland too) so I'm a bit surprised that your model doesn't have them ahead there: can you give the calculations?

[YL]

YouGov puts the Greens ahead of the Lib Dems for the first time: Lab 34 Con 31 UKIP 17 Green 7 LD 6 SNP/Plaid 4

(Tables here.)

[DC Al Fine]

YouGov puts the Greens ahead of the Lib Dems for the first time: Lab 34 Con 31 UKIP 17 Green 7 LD 6 SNP/Plaid 4

(Tables here.)

Ha!

[Diouf]

STV/Ipsos Mori poll for general election voting intention in Scotland

SNP 52% 54 seats
Labour 23% 4 seats
Conservatives 10%
Lib Dems 6% 1 seat
Greens 6%
Ukip 2%
Others 1%

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/297729-stv-poll-labour-would-annihilated-if-general-election-held-tomorrow/

[bore]

STV/Ipsos Mori poll for general election voting intention in Scotland

SNP 52% 54 seats
Labour 23% 4 seats
Conservatives 10%
Lib Dems 6% 1 seat
Greens 6%
Ukip 2%
Others 1%

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/297729-stv-poll-labour-would-annihilated-if-general-election-held-tomorrow/

That's not going to happen, but if the result is anything at all like that, ouch.

That actually is terrible news for Ed Milliband.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Scottish polling won't be any use until certain things are clearer, but... eep.

[afleitch]

Scottish polling won't be any use until certain things are clearer, but... eep.

If Jim Murphy gets the leadership role Labour will become a grand right of centre experiment. That might not make things clearer!

[You kip if you want to...]

The SNP as the kingmakers in a hung parliament.

Imagine.

[ChrisDR68]

The SNP as the kingmakers in a hung parliament.

Imagine.

Given that the SNP would not support a Tory led government in almost any circumstances (for fear of being as unpopular as the Lib Dems currently are as well as for general ideological issues) what concessions would they want in return for supporting and sustaining a Labour government?

[You kip if you want to...]

The SNP as the kingmakers in a hung parliament.

Imagine.

Given that the SNP would not support a Tory led government in almost any circumstances (for fear of being as unpopular as the Lib Dems currently are as well as for general ideological issues) what concessions would they want in return for supporting and sustaining a Labour government?

Well, the SNP were propped up by the Tories at Holywood, soooo...

But if they were kingmakers, I imagine they'd basically get whatever they want.

[afleitch]

The SNP as the kingmakers in a hung parliament.

Imagine.

Given that the SNP would not support a Tory led government in almost any circumstances (for fear of being as unpopular as the Lib Dems currently are as well as for general ideological issues) what concessions would they want in return for supporting and sustaining a Labour government?

Well, the SNP were propped up by the Tories at Holywood, soooo...

But if they were kingmakers, I imagine they'd basically get whatever they want.

Control of everything but defence and foreign affairs. And a general commitment to something similar for other parts of the UK (but that's for other parties to worry about)

If the SNP are kingmakers and want a constitutional settlement for Scotland and for other parts of the UK, if either main party said 'no', couldn't get a Queen's Speech or budget passed and called a GE then Scotland would probably vote SNP even more the second time.

[Joe Republic]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Kennedy?  Lose to whom?  How can an MP who won 52% of the vote in the last election now be considered vulnerable?

[politicus]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Kennedy?  Lose to whom?  How can an MP who won 52% of the vote in the last election now be considered vulnerable?

In this scenario with a 52% SNP national vote a lot will change. They are simply calculating what will happen with a swing this large. Move 19% from LD to SNP and its 34-33 to the Nats. - and the necessary  LD-NP swing would be even less because half the 15% Labour vote would go SNP.

[YL]

This poll is actually even better for the Nats than the YouGov crossbreaks (which, of course, aren't weighted properly for Scottish polls) have been.  I tend to think of MORI as an OK pollster, although they can be quite volatile.

Don't take the seat predictions too seriously; in an extremely high swing scenario the uniform swing assumption might not work very well.  (Actually I think they used Martin Baxter's model, which at least avoids the problem of votes going negative, rather than uniform swing.)  Labour shouldn't take any comfort from that, but Kennedy might.

[EPG]

Don't take the seat predictions too seriously; in an extremely high swing scenario the uniform swing assumption might not work very well.  (Actually I think they used Martin Baxter's model, which at least avoids the problem of votes going negative, rather than uniform swing.)

So these models can't depress the vote below zero in a struggling party's weak constituencies? Then they must depress the vote even more in that party's strong constituencies to compensate. That means they should be more volatile in seat terms than uniform swing, though I think it's academic when one party is on 52%.

[You kip if you want to...]

See also: Canada.

[afleitch]

It's worth noting this is one poll.

The reason why it's being taken seriously, is that this sort of movement was suggested in the aggregate results of the Scottish samples in the rolling YouGov and Populus polls.

At the beginning of this week, the YouGov aggregate had the SNP on 41, Labour on 26, Conservatives 17, Lib Dems 5. Populus was more modest at 37-28-19-9.

Even with Populus that still reduces Labour to 19 seats, in the same parts of the country where they won those seats in 2011, and the SNP on 35 seats.

Expect to see some more Scottish only polling.

[afleitch]

YouGov out with their own poll

SNP 43
LAB 27
CON 15
LIB 4

How much do you trust?
 
Nicola Sturgeon: 48%
Gordon Brown: 37%
Jim Murphy: 24%
David Cameron: 19%
Ed Miliband: 15%

[You kip if you want to...]

All these numbers are also assuming that Sturgeon isn't a flop as FM.

[afleitch]

All these numbers are also assuming that Sturgeon isn't a flop as FM.

They are also assuming she won't get hit by a bus tomorrow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

At this stage everything is assumption upon assumption, but it does tell us quite how serious the situation is. Got to start to deliver asap...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Alastair Darling standing down in Edinburgh South West.