UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Filuwaúrdjan]

UKIP have suspended their general secretary. Something to do with candidate selection.

[afleitch]

UKIP have suspended their general secretary. Something to do with candidate selection.

UKIP are like the Ship of Theseus. Is wherever all the sacked members are, actually now the real UKIP?

[joevsimp]

Third, AV would actually have turned the screw on the Lib Dems, as Ukip second preferences would turn the tide in favour of Conservatives in the C/LD contests which characterise most of their seats.

absolutely, just look at Fianna Fail and the Irish Greens in 2011, they were incredibly transfer toxic as they say and ended up losing more seats than their already dismal first preferences would suggest

the Jenkins Report had calculations on the possible effect of AV on the 1997 election and came to the conclusion that Labour would've won a slightly larger majority and the Tories would've ended up below 100 seats and behind the lib Dems

edit: wasn't quite that extreme http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20140131031506/http://www.archive.official-documents.co.uk/document/cm40/4090/contents.htm

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[YL]

Anyone have any idea why electionforecast.co.uk thinks UKIP have a 9% chance, higher than all but six other constituencies, of winning Dwyfor Meirionnydd?

[EPG]

Anyone have any idea why electionforecast.co.uk thinks UKIP have a 9% chance, higher than all but six other constituencies, of winning Dwyfor Meirionnydd?

I imagine they forgot about Plaid and just looked at the 22% share for the Conservatives in second place.

In 2010, Dwyfor Meirionnydd had the lowest three-party share of the vote in Britain apart from the Speaker's constituency and Na h-Eileanan an Iar. Perhaps more relevantly to this problem, comparing the most popular of the three parties in each constituency, it had the lowest share in Britain apart from the Speaker's constituency.

[YL]

UKIP have suspended their general secretary. Something to do with candidate selection.

Looks like it was to do with this.

And apparently it's looking like Neil Hamilton may fill the gap it's left as candidate in one of their more winnable seats (South Basildon & East Thurrock).

[joevsimp]

UKIP have suspended their general secretary. Something to do with candidate selection.

Looks like it was to do with this.

And apparently it's looking like Neil Hamilton may fill the gap it's left as candidate in one of their more winnable seats (South Basildon & East Thurrock).

ffs, he's like a turd that won't flush, that one

[afleitch]

Populus released all the data from their November polls into one big dump. LAB 36 CON 33 LIB 8 UKIP 14 GRN 4 SNP 3. There's 14,274 people polled.

Caveats and all but it's good for looking at demographic data. The SNP 'only' lead 36-31 in the Scottish subsample, but Labour's vote share would be the lowest in the country except the South East and South West. In 2010 it was the second highest.

[You kip if you want to...]

Apparently the gov are eying up 30th March as the start of the campaign. 6 weeks.

[ChrisDR68]

Apparently the gov are eying up 30th March as the start of the campaign. 6 weeks.

Just like John Major in 1997. Much good it did him though

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Hamilton yet again pulls out as a candidate due to dodgy expenses claims. Leopards not changing their spots comes to mind.

I wonder what happened to Kilroy-Silk btw? Has he been extracted from under the woodwork?

[YL]

If I were in UKIP (stretching my imagination for a few minutes) I wouldn't touch Hamilton with a bargepole in a winnable seat.  OK, a lot of voters won't remember the scandal, but you can bet that the local Tories (and/or Labour) would remind them of it at every opportunity.  I might let him stand somewhere like Hampstead & Kilburn, or he could try to get his old seat back from Osborne...

Anyway, this weeks' YouGov polls, featuring lots of ties for first place and the Lib Dems in fifth more often than not:

5 Dec: Lab 32 Con 31 UKIP 15 Green 8 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 6
7 Dec: Con 32 Lab 32 UKIP 17 Green 7 LD 6 SNP/Plaid 5
9 Dec: Con 34 Lab 33 UKIP 15 LD 6 Green 6 SNP/Plaid 5
10 Dec: Lab 32 Con 32 UKIP 15 LD 8 Green 7 SNP/Plaid 4
11 Dec: Con 33 Lab 33 UKIP 15 Green 7 LD 6 SNP/Plaid 4

[ChrisDR68]

If I were in UKIP (stretching my imagination for a few minutes) I wouldn't touch Hamilton with a bargepole in a winnable seat.  OK, a lot of voters won't remember the scandal, but you can bet that the local Tories (and/or Labour) would remind them of it at every opportunity.  I might let him stand somewhere like Hampstead & Kilburn, or he could try to get his old seat back from Osborne...

Anyway, this weeks' YouGov polls, featuring lots of ties for first place and the Lib Dems in fifth more often than not:

5 Dec: Lab 32 Con 31 UKIP 15 Green 8 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 6
7 Dec: Con 32 Lab 32 UKIP 17 Green 7 LD 6 SNP/Plaid 5
9 Dec: Con 34 Lab 33 UKIP 15 LD 6 Green 6 SNP/Plaid 5
10 Dec: Lab 32 Con 32 UKIP 15 LD 8 Green 7 SNP/Plaid 4
11 Dec: Con 33 Lab 33 UKIP 15 Green 7 LD 6 SNP/Plaid 4

The tendency in previous general elections (although not all - 1979 and 2005 spring to mind) is for the Tories to strengthen in the opinion polls in the final 6 months before polling day (or to do better when all the votes are counted compared to the polls). Going by these polls both main parties are neck and neck. Bearing that in mind my current prediction is Conservatives 35% and Labour 31% of the popular vote.

That gap of 4% could leave both parties on about the same number of seats. Labour needs to fend off the SNP in Scotland for that to be the case though. 

[EPG]

Some say Labour is doing particularly badly in Scotland. This would be good for the SNP, but bad for Conservatives, because a UK-wide tie understates any increase in the Labour vote in England, which is what matters for Conservative seats.

[afleitch]

The Conservatives have already been in talks with the Lib Dems about continuing the coalition if the maths is there. I still expect the Lib Dems to walk away with 30 seats; not great but not a rout. The Lib Dems have, allegedly, agreed to an EU referendum simply to shut up UKIP (who I think will be shut up by the GE results anyway) and will get local government PR and another shot at Lords reform. The support for the Greens won't translate nationwide because they probably will have a patchwork of candidates in place.

Labour, behind the scenes, don't have anyone to work with. They really need a majority. A resurgent SNP is simply going to hurt them anyway even if the SNP end up the only possible partner (which will suit the SNP going into the 2016 elections in Scotland)

At the moment, though I actually think things will move back towards the 2010 status quo, minus a dip for the Lib Dems, I don't think there will be any party that is able to form a government with just one other party. If so, it's back to the polls in the autumn.

[Keystone Phil]

I really enjoyed the seven minute snippet of "Question Time" featuring Farange and that unfunny comedian with an unbuttoned shirt! It should be a great campaign.

[Lurker]

Should be the greatest/ most interesting British General Election in many years  (yes, I know that is said during every election, but this time the cliché is actually true).

[bore]

I didn't know it was possible to enjoy question time...

[Famous Mortimer]

I've just been waiting for someone to mention Question Time so I could post this skit:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3tUqRBiMVo

[You kip if you want to...]

For some context, the consensus this time 5 years ago was still that David Cameron would win a stonking majority (and he'd even see the Tory lead grow during the campaign!!).

A week is a long time...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Happily no election campaign (no matter how unedifying) has much resemblance to Question Time.

[EPG]

Polls in December 2010 were overstating Conservatives by about 3-4, Ukip and others by about 2-3, and understating Lib Dems by about 6, compared to the final result. Basically, Clegg won loads of those floating opposition votes by mid-April, then surged and un-surged.

Should be the greatest/ most interesting British General Election in many years  (yes, I know that is said during every election, but this time the cliché is actually true).

I don't really agree with this, 2010 was very interesting, but 2015 is like a cr*p reprise of 1983 with Farage in the role of vacuous everyman who comes second everywhere but gains just a handful of seats. Except that instead of being generally concerned about things, his voters are fairly clearly anti-immigrant and willing to reward Labour or the Conservatives if they jump for them. Wake me up when the European Union referendum comes around.

[afleitch]

Russell Brand is a tit but he nailed it when he called Nigel Farage a 'pound shop Enoch Powell.'

[SNJ1985]

A prediction:

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/debateni/blogs/bill-white/projecting-the-result-of-the-may-2015-general-election-30824967.html

[YL]

A prediction:

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/debateni/blogs/bill-white/projecting-the-result-of-the-may-2015-general-election-30824967.html

I'm a bit doubtful that the SNP will do quite as well as 45 seats, but otherwise that looks quite plausible.

electionforecast.co.uk currently has a best guess of Lab 283, Con 280, SNP 34, Lib Dem 27, DUP 8, SF 5, UKIP 3, Plaid 3, SDLP 3, Green 1, Other 3 (Bercow and presumably Hermon and Long).

Stephen Fisher's model currently has a slightly less dysfunctional Lab 299, Con 291, Lib Dem 29, Others 31 as its best guess (though I think he's not handling Scotland separately).

Martin Baxter's Electoral Calculus (based on current polls) has Lab 316, Con 258, "Nat" (i.e. SNP and Plaid) 45, Lib Dem 19, Others 19 (the Northern Ireland seats and Wyre Forest; he treats Bercow as a Tory).  He has a decent track record but I don't think his model handles UKIP (or minor parties in general) well.